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Author Topic: Why did bitcoin jump up in price so suddenly in the past 2 weeks?  (Read 9902 times)
mrkent
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June 20, 2012, 11:27:55 PM
 #1

I'm sure this has been talked about, but searching for it has proven extremely difficult.

May 3 2013 edit:
It's funny readying through history. 50% of these answers can be used for everything that happened in the past month.

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June 20, 2012, 11:30:47 PM
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Bitcoin historically has been very unstable but over the last four months has been stable hovering around a constant with no major rises.  This is just the market correcting its self.

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June 20, 2012, 11:49:57 PM
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Here is why:http://alturl.com/5c8a6

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June 21, 2012, 08:07:59 AM
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This is not an explanation this is an attempt to fuel another bubble. But it won't be a remake of june 2011. Why? Because the market is much more stable than before, much more multi-currency, people remember the bubble from last year and start selling each time bitcoin price increases.

So I think there will be a steady growth, matching the growth of the economy, slowly, but not a fly to the moon bubble where a bitcoin is worth 1000 in 2 months. Sorry.

As for the last two weeks, there are multiple signs that bitcoin is catching up in various markets, there an afflux of new bitcoiners from all over the world (or at least of funds from all over the world), hence the rise.

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June 21, 2012, 11:49:05 AM
 #5

Some hedge fund has accumulated enough BTC at $5 level and now they are going to push the exchange price up. Due to limited supply, this push will be very effective, no one can stop it, and they will dump those BTC on the rise Roll Eyes

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June 21, 2012, 01:05:37 PM
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This is not an explanation this is an attempt to fuel another bubble. But it won't be a remake of june 2011. Why? Because the market is much more stable than before, much more multi-currency, people remember the bubble from last year and start selling each time bitcoin price increases.

So I think there will be a steady growth, matching the growth of the economy, slowly, but not a fly to the moon bubble where a bitcoin is worth 1000 in 2 months. Sorry.

As for the last two weeks, there are multiple signs that bitcoin is catching up in various markets, there an afflux of new bitcoiners from all over the world (or at least of funds from all over the world), that why were seen this rise.

Your post is reasonable and logical. It has no place on the economics sub-forum. GTFO.

Just kidding. I agree with what you said.

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June 21, 2012, 08:25:06 PM
 #7

The truth is that nobody really knows for sure. It's all just *educated guessing.

*sometimes
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June 21, 2012, 08:34:35 PM
 #8

I made a post about 6 months ago that attempted to explain what I saw happening in the Bitcoin world here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=53949.40

I forecasted pretty steady growth, which we've mostly seen. But there are a number of other factors that have arisen since that time.

Bitcoin is getting more secure
One, the fact that more and more FPGAs are being purchased and that ASIC is being talked about means that a government or large financial institution 51% attack on the Bitcoin network is going to get significantly more difficult to implement. The value being put in to prevent such an attack actually increases the value of a Bitcoin itself. At some point it will be widely recognized that it is impossible for any single entity to establish a 51% attack on the network.

Once that happens, the value of a Bitcoin will be based directly on its inherent function as: a medium of exchange, a unit of account (divisible and fungible), a store of value, a standard of deferred payment, and a measure of value.

Right now there is still some question as to whether or not one institution or individual will attempt to "corner the market" on mined coin, thus making all of the above significantly more difficult to assess with regards to Bitcoin, however it is getting less likely ever day. I imagine that continued security over time means demand has been increasing for Bitcoin slightly faster than the 7200/day rate at which they are being added to the network.

Mining is becoming a more mature business
Supply might also be tightening as more miners are factoring in December's reward-halving into their return on investment (ROI), meaning they are far less willing to sell at lower prices. Coupled with the increased security and other options for spending coin within the network as opposed to simply "cashing out", more miners are seeing the benefits of delaying a sale right now. At some point the bulk of their stored coin may get sold en masse, though, and we could *could* potentially see the price head back down. There have also been some slightly delays will selling coin via the largest exchange, so some miners have chosen other exchanges or alternative methods.

More options for keeping Bitcoins within the network now exist
GLBSE is a great example of a Bitcoin "sink" to a certain extent. While many people who obtain dividends from companies listed on GLBSE are choosing to sell their coin, many simply considered those investments a sunk cost and simply reinvest, thus keeping the money within the network. While the operator of a mining company does have to purchase hardware, and thus has to sell the coin, they are doing so in a much more delayed manner than previously, and their shareholders may not be approving them to spend coin as readily.

There are simply more people playing the game
Every new business or Bitcoin user also becomes a Bitcoin "sink" as they probably want to hold or have some coin on hand at all times relative to their interest. Many of them may sell immediately to pay off USD-denominated debt, but with banking and lending institutions now handling some of this within Bitcoin, others may need to buy in order to fulfill obligations. As interest increases, more and more of these users are active and more and more want to hold or have coin on hand.

I guess we'll see over time if increases remain steady, but I suspect to continue to see it do so as more and more people use it more and more regularly.

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June 22, 2012, 07:23:10 AM
 #9

The truth is that nobody really knows for sure. It's all just *educated guessing.

*sometimes

best response here... imo

though, i will add (another hypothesis Cool) that maybe some of it has to do with the bitcoin award size for miners being reduced from 50 btc to 25 btc around this coming december. A buy up before the potential run-up. Seems pretty low risk considering the level trading for the past months.
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June 22, 2012, 07:51:25 AM
 #10

Could it be Bitcoin Magazine?

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June 22, 2012, 07:40:17 PM
 #11

My pure speculation theory, based in no market reality other than human nature: I suspect human beings like things in "nice packages" including valuations.

I feel that the hover at 5.xx was nothing more than wanting to value the BTC at a fair & solid constant. High stability around values divisible by 5 and 2. After a few more weeks of cycling, I suspect we'll sit at $8 for a while before hitting $10.

Now that I have predicted this, it will never happen.

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June 22, 2012, 09:26:39 PM
 #12

Could it be Bitcoin Magazine?
I guess that 20% Magazin,30% News media internet,50% Bitcoinica

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June 23, 2012, 03:40:17 AM
 #13

Could it be Bitcoin Magazine?
I guess that 20% Magazin,30% News media internet,50% Bitcoinica
What about the China market growth, new Columbia exchange, and BitInstant's "700,000 locations" availability, all in a short time, probably had something to do with it in addition to the three you mention.

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June 23, 2012, 03:58:49 AM
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BitInstant was a huge factor IMO.

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June 28, 2012, 12:30:56 AM
 #15

BitInstant was a huge factor IMO.

Yes, having a way for people to get bitcoins within very little time and not being gouged 30% or more has been helpful.
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July 10, 2012, 08:41:10 PM
 #16

So is it a good idea to buy AT MARKET or should we still purchase limit orders and risk those orders will never be filled and the value of BTC continues to rise?

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July 10, 2012, 10:09:30 PM
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So is it a good idea to buy AT MARKET or should we still purchase limit orders and risk those orders will never be filled and the value of BTC continues to rise?

Depends - what's your time horizon, next week or next year? If you're holding long term, just buy @ market. If you're taking a short term position, there isn't much depth back to a little over 7, chance it.
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July 10, 2012, 10:15:57 PM
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BitInstant was a huge factor IMO.

+1  As they expand into new countries we should continue to see a nice growth.  I am really looking forward to their expansion to Canada.
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July 11, 2012, 03:04:20 PM
 #19

If BitInstant was a major factor, then expect the price to continue to rise. FastCash4Bitcoins is totally operational and legit (in my experience at least) and now offers overnight ACH. BitInstant + FC4B = fast and easy BTC<->USD, which has been a bit of a Holy Grail for a while now.

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July 12, 2012, 08:59:20 AM
 #20

Just after the news that BFL ASIC is coming

ASIC miners will increase the whole network hashing power a lot (so does difficulty), this will dramatically reduce the availability for BTC for average person, so either they invest in ASIC miner or use those money to buy BTC now

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