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Author Topic: Bitcoin Survey Initial Results  (Read 6097 times)
wachtwoord
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June 24, 2012, 03:11:58 PM
 #21

Could be, but this survey likely suffers from selection bias.

Oh, it definitely does. There's not an easy way to get around it, unfortunately...


Seems like I formulated that a bit harshly. That was unintentional, I was just explaining to the previous user why the number of Chinese Bitcoin users could be under-represented in the survey.

Practically every survey that can be done suffers from direct or indirect selection bias unfortunately, it is merely the degree which is manageable. Out of curiosity: How did you select the participants?


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unfinishe
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June 24, 2012, 04:57:21 PM
 #22

Practically every survey that can be done suffers from direct or indirect selection bias unfortunately, it is merely the degree which is manageable. Out of curiosity: How did you select the participants?

I didn't really select the participants. I simply posted on the forums here and on the Bitcoin subreddit. To deter spam, I used Google authentication (like the Bitcoin Faucet).

I didn't expect it to be a perfect representation of Bitcoin users. At best, it was just going to be a glimpse into a few of the more active English speaking forum members and Redditors.

Check out the results from my Bitcoin Survey Project!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=88927.0
notme
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June 25, 2012, 12:55:39 AM
 #23

It's a bit disheartening to see the lack of people who have recently heard about Bitcoin.  The vast majority heard about it more than 1 year ago.  Does that mean that Bitcoin growth is slowing?

I'd say it means most people that frequent these forms are mostly died hard fans that have been here for 1 year +

would be really cool is if someone would do a cold call survey

438 - 257 - 1495
ring.. ring...
Quote
hello?
would you like to take a quick 5 min survey, and make some cash?
sure ok
have you heard about bitcoin
no
awww, sry you cant take this survey,  thank you!
repeat! Endlessly  Cheesy



That wouldn't be too hard to set up, but I'm not sure the community would donate enough to make enough calls for it to have an impact.  However, I suppose the callers would at least be brought in.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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unfinishe
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June 25, 2012, 02:02:04 AM
 #24

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That wouldn't be too hard to set up, but I'm not sure the community would donate enough to make enough calls for it to have an impact.  However, I suppose the callers would at least be brought in.

Unfortunately, I think that the number of Bitcoin users is too small to be able to get a decent sample out of the general population without making millions of calls...

Check out the results from my Bitcoin Survey Project!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=88927.0
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June 25, 2012, 03:07:02 AM
 #25

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That wouldn't be too hard to set up, but I'm not sure the community would donate enough to make enough calls for it to have an impact.  However, I suppose the callers would at least be brought in.

Unfortunately, I think that the number of Bitcoin users is too small to be able to get a decent sample out of the general population without making millions of calls...

That's not the point.  The point is to spread awareness and instill a sense of loss caused by not already knowing about bitcoin.  In fact millions of calls would be ideal.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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Coinabul
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June 25, 2012, 03:13:02 AM
 #26

May I suggest a survey be done on the larger population using this platform?

http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/how

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unfinishe
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June 25, 2012, 03:52:38 AM
 #27

That's not the point.  The point is to spread awareness and instill a sense of loss caused by not already knowing about bitcoin.  In fact millions of calls would be ideal.

Ok, that makes more sense. Although we may need to refine Bitcoin's image before we do that. I imagine that the first thing anyone curious would do is search on Google  Bitcoin, and find themselves intimidated by the technical language on bitcoin.org and the Wiki, or turned off by the media's coverage of Silk Road, or any number of things. We only get one chance to make a first impression.

 
May I suggest a survey be done on the larger population using this platform?

http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/how

That might not be such a bad idea. It would take a bit of funding, and very carefully designed questions, but I think that could be interesting for research and perhaps even as an outreach tool.

Check out the results from my Bitcoin Survey Project!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=88927.0
LightRider
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June 26, 2012, 05:17:07 AM
 #28

I think you should have asked the "Are you Satoshi Nakamoto?" question. You might have gotten lucky and found him.

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unfinishe
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June 26, 2012, 05:39:23 AM
 #29

I think you should have asked the "Are you Satoshi Nakamoto?" question. You might have gotten lucky and found him.

I think that if I had asked that, I would have had dozens of people all saying "I am Satoshi!", kind of like with Spartacus.

Check out the results from my Bitcoin Survey Project!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=88927.0
Coinabul
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June 26, 2012, 08:04:03 AM
 #30

I think you should have asked the "Are you Satoshi Nakamoto?" question. You might have gotten lucky and found him.

I think that if I had asked that, I would have had dozens of people all saying "I am Satoshi!", kind of like with Spartacus.
We are all Satoshi Nakamoto.

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theymos
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June 26, 2012, 09:00:19 AM
 #31

Strange that there are nearly as many people who answered N/A for gender as females.

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June 26, 2012, 04:51:15 PM
 #32

May I suggest a survey be done on the larger population using this platform?

http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/how

Wow I find it extremely expensive. The OP's survey had 14 questions. To get statistically relevant results we would have to spend 2100$.

As I understand their advertisement, they ask the same user the full survey but over visiting several sites? As one question costs 10ct, I wonder if you can conclude the survey after "do you know bitcoin?" as knowing that 99% don't know bitcoin will make the rest 1% answers kind of statistically irrelevant. (I assume you can create subquestions. Everything else would be stupid.)

Edit:
Quote
Custom audience
Target a specific population like dog owners, moms, or golfers using a threshold question (e.g. "Do you own a dog?”).
$0.50 per response for follow-up questions to that audience or $750.00 for 1500 responses (recommended for statistical significance, minimum incidence rate of 5%)

Assuming less than 1/5 of the general population qualifies to answer these bitcoin questions, this would make the survey 5 times more expensive.

kuverty
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June 26, 2012, 06:44:52 PM
 #33

Of course this is biased, most BTC users use it to buy drugs off Silk Road and I doubt the majority don't hold Ph
Ds. Anyway this is probably a good selection of the people interested in Bitcoin itself

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notme
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June 26, 2012, 07:48:07 PM
 #34

Of course this is biased, most BTC users use it to buy drugs off Silk Road and I doubt the majority don't hold Ph
Ds. Anyway this is probably a good selection of the people interested in Bitcoin itself

Umm... can you show any supporting evidence that most BTC users are Silk Road users?  I'd believe there are a significant percentage, but I really doubt MOST are.  Maybe 20%, although I'd bet less.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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kuverty
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June 26, 2012, 08:47:56 PM
 #35

I don't think anybody has, but at least where I live I would bet it applies. I used to sell Bitcoin and after a blog emerged about buying drugs online my sales increased sixfold. Also I otherwise knew about some of the customers that they were going to use the BTC on SR. The whole Silk Road thing is huge, I've overheard at least a dozen back of the bus conversations about Silk Road but only one on Bitcoin. Here's how it is in Finland and I don't believe it is an exception. I might be wrong, of course.

(edited to replace a few more dots that were supposed to be spaces. It just might be impossible to write a message on this phone. Looking forward to thought recognition technology [though it seems to be already too easy to post messages on the Internet])

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Transisto
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June 26, 2012, 08:59:01 PM
 #36

I wish I could filter the the data to isolate those who didn't accept the 0.02 btc,

(for personal reasons) Wink
unfinishe
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June 27, 2012, 01:45:48 AM
 #37

I wish I could filter the the data to isolate those who didn't accept the 0.02 btc,

(for personal reasons) Wink

Hmm, I'm not quite sure what those reasons might be (sounds suspicious), but I'll do it anyway:

Be forewarned. Boringly, most of the percentages are pretty much unchanged.

Responses that did not accept payment: 40

Choice#%Nonpaid % - Total %
Question 1
****************************************************
Australia37.5%+3.72%
Austria12.5%+0.88%
Brazil25.0%+3.92%
Canada512.5%+4.93%
Costa Rica12.5%+1.96%
Denmark12.5%+1.42%
Germany37.5%+3.18%
Netherlands12.5%-0.2%
Norway25.0%+2.3%
Poland12.5%+0.34%
South Africa12.5%+1.96%
Spain12.5%+0.88%
Sweden12.5%+1.42%
United Kingdom12.5%-7.23%
United States1640.0%+1.08%
Question 2
Under 1800.0%-6.49%
18 - 241332.5%+4.93%
25 - 30922.5%-7.77%
31 - 401435.0%+10.14%
41 - 5037.5%+0.47%
51 - 6012.5%-0.2%
Over 6000.0%-1.08%
Question 3
Male40100.0%+7.57%
Female00.0%-4.86%
N/A00.0%-2.7%
Question 4
Some secondary education (High School)25.0%-6.89%
Completed secondary education37.5%-1.15%
Some higher education (College, Vocational training, etc)1230.0%+0.81%
Completed 2-Year Degree12.5%-2.91%
Completed 4-Year Degree1742.5%+16.55%
Graduate level study (Masters, Ph.D., M.D., J.D.)512.5%-6.42%
Question 5
Student922.5%-4.53%
Not employed25.0%-1.49%
Agriculture, Energy and Mining00.0%-0.54%
Construction12.5%-0.2%
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate25.0%+2.3%
Government00.0%-4.86%
Health Care00.0%-0.54%
Internet and Computer Technology1845.0%+6.08%
Manufacturing00.0%-1.08%
Retail and Wholesale Trade00.0%-2.7%
Services410.0%+3.51%
Transportation00.0%-1.08%
Other00.0%+0.0%
Question 6
Very Conservative00.0%-2.16%
Conservative12.5%-3.45%
Centrist25.0%+0.14%
Liberal615.0%-3.92%
Very Liberal410.0%+1.35%
Libertarian1845.0%+8.78%
Apolitical512.5%+3.31%
None of the above410.0%-4.05%
Question 7
Mainstream media (Newspaper, magazine, television, etc.)12.5%-1.28%
Online media (Blog, podcast, Wikipedia, etc.)2562.5%+8.45%
Word-of-mouth (Direct, social media, etc.)820.0%-3.24%
Internet search25.0%-3.11%
Other00.0%+0.0%
Question 8
In the past month00.0%-2.7%
1 - 3 months ago00.0%-2.7%
3 - 6 months ago25.0%+1.76%
6 - 12 months ago717.5%-2.5%
1 - 2 years ago2767.5%+6.96%
2 - 3 years ago410.0%+1.35%
Over 3 years ago00.0%-2.16%
Question 9
Buying goods or services online2152.5%-4.8%
- Internet Services (VPN, server hosting, etc.)1127.5%+2.64%
- Technical or creative work (programming, web design, etc)615.0%-0.68%
- Entertainment (Music, games, etc.)1127.5%+6.42%
- Clothing, Artwork. Other Crafts512.5%+2.23%
- Electronics or computer hardware820.0%+1.08%
Direct (face-to-face) trade820.0%+2.7%
Gambling1537.5%+2.91%
Lending or Borrowing717.5%-0.88%
Donating to non-profit organizations1435.0%-1.76%
Using as a store of value (comparable to gold)3075.0%-1.22%
Other37.5%-6.55%
Question 10
Purchasing in exchanges2665.0%-4.73%
Mining2050.0%+0.27%
Selling goods512.5%+0.07%
Providing services37.5%-5.47%
Other00.0%-8.11%
Question 11
Convenience2357.5%+1.28%
Low transaction costs2972.5%+14.66%
Ease of international transfer2255.0%+3.11%
Potential for anonymity2767.5%+8.04%
Ideological or political reasons3177.5%+6.69%
Opportunity for profit3177.5%+4.53%
Other615.0%+4.73%
Question 12
Security (Website hacks, etc.)1845.0%+5.0%
Scalability (Growing block-chain size, etc.)1537.5%-3.58%
Speculation717.5%+1.28%
Slow transaction times820.0%-3.78%
Difficulty of exchange with other currencies1947.5%+8.04%
Difficulty of use for non-technical users2665.0%+3.38%
Negative outside perception1640.0%-5.41%
Other410.0%+0.81%
Question 13
Optimistic3587.5%+3.18%
Neutral410.0%-4.05%
Pessimistic12.5%+0.88%
Question 14
Definitely1537.5%-12.23%
Maybe2152.5%+7.09%
Probably not410.0%+5.14%

Check out the results from my Bitcoin Survey Project!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=88927.0
nedbert9
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June 27, 2012, 11:11:53 PM
 #38

Nice results. Pretty predictable for the most part, though 92% male? I know there's no girls on the Internet, but I'd think we'd get more than that simply out of troll responses.

You really think someone would do that? Just go on the Internet and tell lies?

Anyway, if I had to venture a guess, Bitcoin users seem to have more technical backgrounds, libertarian leanings, and, given the nature of Bitcoin, more willingness to try and adopt something new and unstable, and those all might be contributing factors...



Yeah, relative to men very few women are visionaries.

Have you ever heard of a women's opinion being a leading indicator for anything?


Cheesy
unfinishe
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June 27, 2012, 11:35:45 PM
 #39

Yeah, relative to men very few women are visionaries.

Have you ever heard of a women's opinion being a leading indicator for anything? Cheesy

Well, I don't want to disparage women or anything, and there are certainly exceptions, but women just tend to be more risk-averse. I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing, though. On one hand, you miss out on being part of the cutting-edge, but on the other, you don't get hit when the bubbles pop.

Check out the results from my Bitcoin Survey Project!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=88927.0
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June 27, 2012, 11:45:33 PM
 #40

Hint for your next run: Use surveygizmo.com!

Its a great, functional, easy to use, FREE! and comprehensive tool to create and analyse surveys (sounds like advertisement, I know). I used it myself when I was doing a survey during internship (I study media science and had creating and undertaking surveys also on my curriculum.) It is especially better then the freqently invoked surveymonkey!
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