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Question: What would be the price range of bitcoin vs USD on Dec 31 2012.
<$5
>$5 <$10
>$10 <$20
>$20 <$30
>$30

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Author Topic: End of year price prediction  (Read 4538 times)
Jutarul
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August 22, 2012, 10:03:04 PM
 #41

Above $10 for sure folks.

It is inevitable ... people hoarding. Reward dropping, ASIC coming showing huge faith in BTC system and its viability etc.

When ASICs hit, I expect the price to drop hard until we reach a point where the value gained from mining with ASICS makes ROI about 100-200 days.

ASICs are expensive equipment because the company has to make up for the development cost and fuel a sustained business. Don't expect them to sell cheap. However, they will certainly be more competitive than FPGAs in terms of W/GH power consumption and $/GH/s hardware costs. GPUs still lead in terms of $/GH/s.

The question is really about selling pressure. And with ASICs coming to the market you just change the mix ratios ASIC/FPGA/GPU.
What makes you think ASIC miners have a larger selling pressure than FPGA or GPU miners?


A BFL jalapeno will cost you $150 or something and deliver 3.5 Ghash/s. (http://www.butterflylabs.com/order-form-bitforce-sc-jalapeno/)

1) That may be the release price (I doubt that they will deliver at that price point). But the market price will shoot up. If you're one of the lucky ones who get that thing delivered the best strategy is to mine for a few weeks and sell it at market value for a profit.

2) Based on BFL reputation I expect the 3.5 GH/s to be too optimistic. Heat production will probably limit the chip to half of the promised value.

3) You can buy GPUs NOW. jalapenos don't exist yet. And if they do, BFL is probably mining for profit right now.

The ASICMINER Project https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0
"The way you solve things is by making it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing.", Milton Friedman
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