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Author Topic: The bubble has popped, slow decline to $3 on the way  (Read 10209 times)
Stephen Gornick
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June 25, 2012, 11:42:39 AM
 #21

1.) BFL is probably not keeping the thousands of bitcoins being sent their way from their BitForce SC pre-sales orders.  The was a burst of those orders placed when they launched the order form.

2.) Many Bitcoinica folks whose bitcoins were tied up went ahead and bought more until such time that the payouts started.  The payouts started.

3.) The great growth story (SatoshiDICE) is flailing about -- their "under 1%" house edge went to 1.5% for a while, now it is at 3%.   There's a huge difference between the two as far as a gambler is concerned, and the trajectory for Bitcoin usage fell back to earth after this latest change.

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Ukigo
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June 25, 2012, 12:42:44 PM
 #22

@mem
Remember, You must bet at least 10 BTC on betsofbitco.in

Or i will NOT bet against you Smiley

"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
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June 25, 2012, 12:46:29 PM
 #23

As much as I like mem and his posts against BFL I can seriously call BS on this.

With reward drop coming $10 is inevitable sometime this year or Jan 2013.

proudhon
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June 25, 2012, 01:30:55 PM
 #24

Almost half of all the bitcoins on the MtGox order book are now placed between the current price and $7.00.
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June 25, 2012, 02:25:33 PM
 #25

As much as I like mem and his posts against BFL I can seriously call BS on this.

With reward drop coming $10 is inevitable sometime this year or Jan 2013.



This is all about speculation Smiley



It's the trinity of speculating.
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June 25, 2012, 02:31:54 PM
 #26

mem put your money where your mouth is; I'll take YOUR BTC for 4.50USD
cbeast
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June 25, 2012, 02:37:00 PM
 #27

Could it happened to be because a large amount of Bitcoin was just added to the MtGox market? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89734.msg987907#msg987907

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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June 25, 2012, 03:13:35 PM
 #28

you guys are crazy


i'm calling bottom now....

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June 25, 2012, 03:30:46 PM
 #29

The biggest rally - the one cut off by Mt. Gox getting hacked - was from $1 to $30. That popped, but the lowest it ever went back to was $2; there was enormous resistance there, and $2 became the new bottom, and the price slowly began climbing back up from there.

The most recent big rally was from $3.20 to $7. That eventually popped, but the lowest it ever went back to was $4; there was enormous resistance there, and $4 became the new bottom, and the price eventually stabilized at $5, where it sat rather comfortably for about three months.

This rally was from $5 to $6.75. Why, this time, will we bottom out at lower than we began?

With reward drop coming $10 is inevitable sometime this year or Jan 2013.
I'm still unconvinced that the reward drop will have an effect like this. Block reward affects production rate, not supply, and the difficulty exists to insulate mining costs from the price.

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the culture of naive fools and conmen, the former convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and the latter arriving by the busload to devour them.
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June 25, 2012, 03:40:17 PM
 #30

I like bubbles

Sitarow
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June 25, 2012, 03:44:50 PM
 #31

The biggest rally - the one cut off by Mt. Gox getting hacked - was from $1 to $30. That popped, but the lowest it ever went back to was $2; there was enormous resistance there, and $2 became the new bottom, and the price slowly began climbing back up from there.

The most recent big rally was from $3.20 to $7. That eventually popped, but the lowest it ever went back to was $4; there was enormous resistance there, and $4 became the new bottom, and the price eventually stabilized at $5, where it sat rather comfortably for about three months.

This rally was from $5 to $6.75. Why, this time, will we bottom out at lower than we began?

With reward drop coming $10 is inevitable sometime this year or Jan 2013.
I'm still unconvinced that the reward drop will have an effect like this. Block reward affects production rate, not supply, and the difficulty exists to insulate mining costs from the price.

Two facts to remember.

As blocks are found bitcoins are added to the pool. At the moment 50BTC a block 6 times an hour.

If all the solved blocks end up being sold on MTGox Exchange thats a big "IF". Then that exchange will need to absorb 7200BTC a day. At the present market value $6.3 it is just over $45,000 USD a day.

Once the reward is 25BTC then the MTGox Exchange will only need to absorb 3600BTC a day to keep the same price.
IF the market value is the same at that time then it is just over $22,000 USD a day.

As more users adopt Bitcoin and use its network. Demand will only increase, compound this fact with less bitcoin entering the market via the traditional means, Bitcoin value against USD will also increase.
Sitarow
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June 25, 2012, 04:48:09 PM
 #32

This is a pay week for many. Will be interesting to see what happens this Friday - weekend.
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June 25, 2012, 05:09:00 PM
 #33

It is worth noting that when RSI and Money Flow both popped in early December the price then proceeded to go from $2.50 to $7.00 in less than two months, so this could still be the START of an increase, though with the BFL announcement I'm thinking a dip down to $5 range again is more likely. Who knows how long it'll stay down there, though, probably not for very long, especially as the reality sets in.

Just curious, what are all the Bitforce SC purchasers going to do when they realize its still going to be 6 months before they get their equipment? You realize that BFL can't refund your Bitcoin if they have to sell it for ASIC development, right folks?

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June 25, 2012, 05:27:44 PM
 #34

Just curious, what are all the Bitforce SC purchasers going to do when they realize its still going to be 6 months before they get their equipment? You realize that BFL can't refund your Bitcoin if they have to sell it for ASIC development, right folks?

We will wait and continue to mine with FPGAs as well as getting BTC income from investments with BTCST & the GLBSE.  Why would anyone want a refund?

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dancupid
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June 25, 2012, 05:50:43 PM
 #35

My opinion is that if the price goes too high people will sell and if it goes too low people will buy.
That's ma tu'pneth o'copper.
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June 25, 2012, 06:00:24 PM
 #36

Ahh, predicting the future. As reliable today as ever.  Roll Eyes

The gospel according to Satoshi - https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Free bitcoin=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1610684
Spekulatius
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June 25, 2012, 06:09:19 PM
 #37

OP is BS based on nothing.

--> ignore?
YoYa
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June 25, 2012, 06:36:09 PM
 #38

OH FFS!



So let me get this straight, OP thinks bubble is burst, and bitcoin is going to 3, but strangely OP is willing to buy at a predicted loss of 1.50 a coin out of the generosity of his own heart ARSE!!!

Kid, I fucking eat cunts like you on the dead cat bounces! This ain't a bubble, it's just a gentle scratch of my balls first thing in the morning.
dancupid
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June 25, 2012, 06:40:21 PM
 #39

OH FFS!



So let me get this straight, OP thinks bubble is burst, and bitcoin is going to 3, but strangely OP is willing to buy at a predicted loss of 1.50 a coin out of the generosity of his own heart ARSE!!!

Kid, I fucking eat cunts like you on the dead cat bounces! This ain't a bubble, it's just a gentle scratch of my balls first thing in the morning.


It's called jock itch - it's a fungal infection (tinea cruris) - you can buy an over the counter solution. Speak to your pharmacist.

Sitarow
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June 25, 2012, 06:42:42 PM
 #40

IF your going to buy or sell. Putting up your own ask/bids rather than selling/buying into existing trading positions is far more rewarding.
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