Casascius coin market valuation

[Possum577]

Hey, I've noticed a lot of variation in what people are offering their Casascius coins for on the forum. Some go for BTC2 other for greater than BTC5 and the difference in the coins could be series, year, and ANACS grade. The valuations have even changed as the USD price per BTC has changed. I see this difference now but also when comparing prices between today and 6 months ago. Back when BTC was trading at $600 the common valuation for a BTC1 coin (any year, brass or silver, any series...except 2011 series 1) was 2x. Today that valuation is more like 3-4x.

By valuation I mean the multiple that a sales price is of the face value of the coin. So a BTC1 Casascius coin selling for BTC2 would have a valuation of 2x...its sales value is two times its face value

I think we should discuss what the general market valuation is for a BTC1 Casascius coin to set a base (which will likely move over time) from which a seller and buyer can negotiate a fair price given that particular coin's condition, grade, mintage, etc.

Anyone have an opinion on this?

[1713266790]

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[LiteCoinGuy]

maybe this is your answer:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=165885.0

[hyphymikey]

I now regret selling most of mine for 1.5X... and the 80+ I had stolen 

I think 2X is a fair price, I wouldn't pay any more than that, ever.

[LitcoinCollector]

They are just such great coins, the price will only go up in time.

[Possum577]

I also think the price will go up in time. What concerns me today is there seems to be a lack of liquidity in sales and it might be due to differences in the agreed upon value.

Hyphymikey mentioned he'd pay 2x face but not more, but there are sellers out there that wouldn't dream of selling for less than 3x face. Do we accept that we're at a standstill and wait for one side or the other to give in OR for a third party to come in and fill the void?

Perhaps the only thing that is for certain is that with only 3 responses to this thread in a weeks time I may be the only one that really things this is an issue.

[Possum577]

maybe this is your answer:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=165885.0

You're kidding right? Tell me you're being sarcastic...if so, well done.

[elianite]

I am the creator of The Casascius Guide, a free eBook at www.coinfirm.org

It is correct that the market has dried up considerably, this is due to the fact of 'hype' for bitcoin has decreased, as well as the value of bitcoin.
Hype: gets more people interested in the coins, interested in collecting,
Bitcoin value: as bitcoin value drops, sellers are less willing to part with their coins (perhaps foolishly). If when btc was $700 their coin had a mrket value of 3x ($2100), then even if the multiplier remains 3x, at $350 the market value is only $1050.

Hype + decrease in BTC value:
As hype has decreased, the demand and therefore market multiple have decreased. What used to be 3x may now be 2x. Combining these two factors, casascius owners have seen the value of their hypothetical coin go from $2100 (3x at $700) to only $700 (2x at $350). This is a terrible psychological barrier to selling; they would be getting only what they might view as the value of 'one bitcoin' from before for what used to be 'worth 3 bitcoin'.

I think there is alot of irrationality in markets, and only more so when that which is being traded ha sentimental value and such. I expect that at the next 'hype' phase, the coin market will be hot again and more mature, perhaps even to be noticed by more mainstream coin collectors.
It is worth noting that prices for casasccius coins here on the forums are much less then the 'mainstream (ebay) prices, due to various reasons. \if you look at the 'sold' section on ebay for recent casascius sales, you will notice that the margins are much different then for those sold here.

I Think it is important to start watching the prices more closely, and it is expected that a stable price range will be set for standard coins such as MS-64 2013 1BTC, etc. Price will always vary wildly for the higher grades and rarer coins, as they are difficult to sell and ire a matter of finding tge right buyer at the right time (for example, the rare 0.5btc coins going for ~10BTC).

The market is also still figuring out the value of certain coins, and nobody really has a clue as to what they should be priced at. Imagine for example a 1000BTC gold coin, of which 3 remain. What would be an appropriate asking price? 3000BTC? surely not. 1500BTC?  1050BTC?

[Possum577]

I don't think hype has decreased.

If that were the case you'd see the offer prices falling, but they're not. The offers sellers are making are more expensive now than they were 6 months ago (in BTC terms).

When BTC was worth $650 USD, Casascius coins were going for less BTC than they are now. The price in BTC has gone up and the price in USD has remained somewhat flat.

When that price is agreed upon (of course it's only relevant at that point in time) but when it is you'll see sales happen, right now I don't see or hear of ANY sales happening...and that stalemate has to break at somepoint.

[LitcoinCollector]

Casascius is not only an investment it is a physical piece of Bitcoin history.
Buy now, while they are still being sold for dubbel/tripple!

[keystroke]

There should be an upper bound on the price as it is possible to remove the physical holographic protection and steal the private key below. So risking a huge amount in each coin would be foolish. Then again the market can bear many fools.

[bitcon]

what are Casascius coins made from? did'nt the manufacturer get shut down by FBI?

[elianite]

There should be an upper bound on the price as it is possible to remove the physical holographic protection and steal the private key below. So risking a huge amount in each coin would be foolish. Then again the market can bear many fools.

The 'stealing private keys' risk really has no basis. It is true that it was done once, but it was also reported that the hologram looked noticeably dimmer and not fully smooth when it was put back on; not reflecting in the light as before being removed. This happened along time ago with an unknown technique, and to date there has not been even a suggestion that it has ever been attempted to defraud anyone. I consider it a non-issue as long a the market keeps its eyes open.

what are Casascius coins made from? did'nt the manufacturer get shut down by FBI?

Most are made from brass, but some are silver and there are a couple gold ones. He needed to stop making the coins after getting a warning from FINcen for being a  'money transmitter' without licence. Theres many people making similar coins now.