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Author Topic: BFLs ASIC == BTC doomsday?  (Read 7170 times)
Fjordbit
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June 27, 2012, 06:17:58 AM
 #21

I think that ASIC is the bes tthing for bitcoin right now. For one thing, it defends again botnets.

But a more important advantage to me is that ASIC companies are now invested in BitCoin. We need more SIC companies, enough to make a voice. This voice is important because a major threat to bitcoin is the government passing legislation against it because of the blackmarket uses. The majority of volume in bitcoin is in USD, and if the american government passes a law against mining or trading in bitcoin, it could seriously cause issues for the network. Basically, it would need to be shifted to the darknet and exchanges would need to be drop cash in the mail. The inconvenience would cause the price to crumble. However, with devoted hardware companies, they can lobby to keep it legal. ATI will never go to bat for bitcoin, but BFL will because their business depends on it.

One other scenario to consider is viable quantum computing coming into being. If a 256qbit computer were made, then theoretically, it could churn out a solution every second regardless of the difficulty. In this case, most algorithms that run on GPUs and CPUs won't work.
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Qoheleth
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June 27, 2012, 06:55:43 AM
 #22

One other scenario to consider is viable quantum computing coming into being. If a 256qbit computer were made, then theoretically, it could churn out a solution every second regardless of the difficulty. In this case, most algorithms that run on GPUs and CPUs won't work.
There's no sub-exponential quantum algorithm for reversing SHA-256. Sure, Grover's algorithm reduces the work to the square root of what it was, but it's still exponential, and quantum computers are unlikely to "catch up" to Turing machines in that respect for a long time, even if a 256qubit computer that could execute Grover's algorithm on 2SHA256 was made.

In short, quantum computers will at best be another competing technology, and one with an uphill battle to achieve parity with ASICs.

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the culture of naive fools and conmen, the former convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and the latter arriving by the busload to devour them.
norulezapply
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June 27, 2012, 09:03:24 AM
 #23

1 - BFL delivers on their promise

I stopped reading here.

We have nothing to worry about guys..

If my post helped, I'll happily accept a few bitmills!   15rGg6A1JFZV3b7TTbtpAaiYGdUD1e1oAm
boonies4u
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June 27, 2012, 11:13:18 PM
 #24

I'm not sure why you feel like making the entry cost to mining lower is going to drive less people to enter mining.

If current GPU and FPGA rigs/farms are shut off, difficulty will decrease and the profitability of mining will increase.

Low entry cost does not matter. In fact, that only means the network hash rate will grow even faster. My point is that people invest their money to make MORE imoney. If there is no money to be made from investing in bitcoin mining hardware (no matter how cheap), then people simply won't invest.

And that is true about the gpu and fpga miners... at least until everyone grabs a low power ASIC alternative. At that point the network hash rate will be adjusted to the increase in production except now there are more independent miners with proportionally less mining power because the entry cost is so low and every greedy bastard on the face of the internet wants a piece of the bitcoin pie. Since everyone has such a small proportion now, profitability will drop and no new investors join.

Bitcoin miners need people to hold value in the currency to net a profit. The transaction fees and 50 BTC rewards mean nothing if no one is there to trade them and believe they hold a value.

It's not about whether or not the miners will be able to make more money than their peers, it's whether or not mining will always be profitable or break-even in the long term. Which it should, for a VERY long time.
Gomeler
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June 27, 2012, 11:34:40 PM
 #25

I'm not sure why you feel like making the entry cost to mining lower is going to drive less people to enter mining.

If current GPU and FPGA rigs/farms are shut off, difficulty will decrease and the profitability of mining will increase.

Your naiveté is amusing. You think that $150 jalapeno is going to generate any significant portion of BTC? If BFL is able to meet the demand and specifications there will be dozens of ASIC based Mini Rigs and hundreds of ASIC based singles. I agree that it is a big if, but, if they do then all of us with medium-large GPU farms are going to convert and the guys with a dinky $150 jalapeno will be left fighting over fractions of a BTC/day.

Better hope BTC spikes in price. In the end this sort of advancement is just going to consolidate a great portion of hashing power into early adopter's hands. I personally am playing the waiting game but I am eagerly watching for the first sign that it is time to dump my $500/month powerbill.

Fuzzy
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June 27, 2012, 11:44:58 PM
 #26

Better hope BTC spikes in price. In the end this sort of advancement is just going to consolidate a great portion of hashing power into early adopter's hands.

I think the cutoff for "early adopters" will be the first block split. To think, half of ALL bitcoins to ever be mined will have been mined by the end of this year. And I doubt BFL will deliver any ASIC devices before new years.

ASIC will mark the commercialization of Bitcoin, as it is clearly growing, and investors are growing more confident and more bold. It will also be the end of of the "casual miner", but now that half the bitcoins will have been mined, they've had their time, so to speak, and can still buy the coins if they want to take part.

If anyone want's to mine casually, it will be time to move to another crypto-curreny.
BlackPrapor
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June 28, 2012, 08:06:29 AM
 #27

Bitcoin will survive past December 2012 if the majority of it's users are interested in it as a medium of exchange, not source of profit. If majority are miners, wanting to cover their costs ASAP, selling btc, then it's doomed to collapse. Find ways to promote Bitcoin in your area, and if everyone does that, we should be safe.

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ChanceCoats123
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June 28, 2012, 04:08:49 PM
 #28

Bitcoin will survive past December 2012 if the majority of it's users are interested in it as a medium of exchange, not source of profit. If majority are miners, wanting to cover their costs ASAP, selling btc, then it's doomed to collapse. Find ways to promote Bitcoin in your area, and if everyone does that, we should be safe.

Here in lies the problem! 95% of miners don't mine because they genuinely want bitcoin to succeed and the collapse of fiat currency to follow... They mine because anyone with capital and the knowledge to run simple programs and manage hardware can more than double their investment by sitting on their ass!

When mining no longer provides reasonable ROI and profitably, we'll see a huge decrease in mining interest.
BlackPrapor
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June 28, 2012, 05:15:58 PM
 #29

Bitcoin will survive past December 2012 if the majority of it's users are interested in it as a medium of exchange, not source of profit. If majority are miners, wanting to cover their costs ASAP, selling btc, then it's doomed to collapse. Find ways to promote Bitcoin in your area, and if everyone does that, we should be safe.

Here in lies the problem! 95% of miners don't mine because they genuinely want bitcoin to succeed and the collapse of fiat currency to follow... They mine because anyone with capital and the knowledge to run simple programs and manage hardware can more than double their investment by sitting on their ass!

When mining no longer provides reasonable ROI and profitably, we'll see a huge decrease in mining interest.
I won't care about btc profitability once I cover my costs. I want btc to survive and be a medium of exchange, not sourse for profit. I hope get the farm running on renewable energy, so when the profit runs out, the network will still be secure and fast at zero cost Smiley)

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ChanceCoats123
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June 28, 2012, 05:31:31 PM
 #30

The community honestly needs more people like you. Hell, even I'm just in it for the profit. I would love to do to help the network, but I just can't be throwing cash for the betterment of a crypto-currency.  Undecided
P_Shep
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June 29, 2012, 01:50:41 AM
 #31

I'm really worried.

I don't know if my router will be able to cope with running 240GH/s worth of SC singles.
mdude77
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June 29, 2012, 02:25:38 AM
 #32

I'm really worried.

I don't know if my router will be able to cope with running 240GH/s worth of SC singles.

I'd be more worried about being able to recoup the cost in a reasonable amount of time, if ever.

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