If everyone in the world mined with CPUs, could the average ASIC farm compete?

[runpaint]

Let's say the wildest dreams of Bitcoin fanatics came true, and 1BTC was priced at $100,000.

At that point, mining a block would be like hitting the lottery.  Plenty of people play the lottery every day and never win, so I think plenty of people would leave their computers running all day if it meant a free lottery ticket every 10 minutes.

So if 1 billion people were mining every day, hoping to mine 1 block in a lifetime, wouldn't it make ASIC farms obsolete?  Sure, you could still spend millions of dollars on a mining farm, but you wouldn't be mining a block every day, or every week, or even every month.  It would be like spending millions of dollars on lottery tickets and always losing money.

People always assume mining will get more and more centralized, but it could go the other way if Bitcoin really becomes a worldwide currency for everyone.  We could see headlines like "Rhode Island pool finds its first block this year;  Every RI citizen gets $5.00."

Of course, a billion people won't be able to mine if nodes can't be run on consumer hardware and home internet connections.  But maybe technology will advance enough to make it possible, even if Bitcoin is forked into a big-boys club.

[1714680505]

1714680505

[odolvlobo]

There are already the equivalent of 200 billion CPUs mining right now.

The current network hash rate is about 400,000,000,000 MH/s. A typical CPU does about 2 MH/s. A single $400 ASIC is the equivalent of 500,000 CPUs.

[runpaint]

There are already the equivalent of 200 billion CPUs mining right now.

The current network hash rate is about 400,000,000,000 MH/s. A typical CPU does about 2 MH/s. A single $400 ASIC is the equivalent of 500,000 CPUs.

Yes, but if Bitcoin becomes an everyday tool for billions of people, then every cheap laptop in the world will have ASICs built-in.  The new 28nm ASICs are just the latest, but by no means the best, cheapest, or most power-efficient we'll see.  And there's no telling what other innovations could be made in any field of computing that could change the game.  For example, if standard CPUs become 100 times more powerful, then ASICs might not have as much of an advantage if they don't advance at the same rate.

[DannyHamilton]

- snip -
every cheap laptop in the world will have ASICs built-in.
- snip -

Wait a minute...

You're moving the goal posts here.

Your original question was:

If everyone in the world mined with CPUs, could the average ASIC farm compete?

Now you are saying that everyone will be mining with ASIC insead of CPU.

odolvlobo gave you a correct and accurate indication of how useless it would be for everyone in the world to mine with CPU.

So, now we are going to move on to the question of everyone in the world mining with ASIC...

But, you've already pointed out (in your reasoning on why people might try mining unprofitably):

Plenty of people play the lottery every day and never win, so I think plenty of people would leave their computers running all day if it meant a free lottery ticket every 10 minutes

"Plenty of people" isn't "everybody in the world".  There are more people in the world that DON'T play the lottery, than there are people that DO play the lottery.  Therefore, given your reasoning, MOST people won't waste money mining with an ASIC in their laptop "hoping to mine 1 block in a lifetime".

This reduces the pool of people mining to only those willing to spend money "hoping to mine 1 block in a lifetime".

The next question is, will those people be willing to spend the money required to have the latest, fastest, most efficient possible ASIC in their laptop?  If not, then the mining farms that have access to the most inexpensive resources are still going to outpace them in a huge way and therefore will still have an incentive to exist.  If so, then they will essentially be competing with each other to improve their odds of success (just like some people will by dozens or even hundreds of lottery tickets to try to improve their odds of success).  This means that many of these people will actually be small (or even large) mining farms themselves.

So, it doesn't eliminate mining farms, it just defines them.

[runpaint]

- snip -
every cheap laptop in the world will have ASICs built-in.
- snip -

Wait a minute...

You're moving the goal posts here.

Your original question was:

If everyone in the world mined with CPUs, could the average ASIC farm compete?

Now you are saying that everyone will be mining with ASIC insead of CPU.

I asked a question.  How is that a goalpost?  CPUs aren't enough, fine, but what if laptops had ASICs?  Then would ASIC farms still dominate?

See, I haven't used up my daily limit of questions yet.  I can ask more than one.  You are free to ignore them, even if I don't have a paid banner.

odolvlobo gave you a correct and accurate indication of how useless it would be for everyone in the world to mine with CPU.

True, and there are also plenty of scenarios in which it would be useless to mine Bitcoin at all.  But I never asked about today's reality, I asked about the future if and when Bitcoin was much larger.  A lot of things will be different by then, and we can only guess as to which things will change and by how much.

"Plenty of people" isn't "everybody in the world".

Neither is a billion people.  Next.

There are more people in the world that DON'T play the lottery, than there are people that DO play the lottery. 

But are there more people who DON'T use money than people who DO use money?

You see, Bitcoin isn't a lottery ticket.  As I said, we're talking about a hypothetical scenario in which Bitcoin is used as money by a lot more people than currently use it.

Therefore, given your reasoning, MOST people won't waste money mining with an ASIC in their laptop "hoping to mine 1 block in a lifetime".

How much money will ASIC mining cost, in the year 2120, if every home has free solar energy?

The next question is, will those people be willing to spend the money required to have the latest, fastest, most efficient possible ASIC in their laptop?

It depends - how much will a laptop cost in the year 2120? 

Besides, as I said, they don't need the fastest computers if they have a billion of them.

[Undermood]

the title made a bit confusion over the topic in the article. OP didn't mention mining bitcoin with CPUS in the article at all. And I think even ASIC built- in laptop can't compete with a dedicated ASIC mining rig! But it can be a hobby or great practice to mine and secure the BlockChain network even no reward can ever be made! Whether ASIC farm will become obsolete in the future, is not sure! But what we know is that we have being increasing the technology of ASIC miner, making it more efficient and light, which will try to decrease the mining cost ！

[runpaint]

the title made a bit confusion over the topic in the article. OP didn't mention mining bitcoin with CPUS in the article at all.

The part where I talked about a billion people leaving their computers running all day to mine bitcoins was the part about mining bitcoins with CPUs, and where I mentioned that technology could advance in unforseen ways.

According to odolvlobo's numbers, all the billions of PCs currently being used in the world couldn't outmatch the ASIC farms that are already running.  So a lot of things would have to change for the average person to use CPU mining, even with a million-person pool. 

But we know that CPUs will continue to advance, and software and networking and mining and pools will advance, and if it's still not enough then maybe ASICs will become a household item.  So maybe Bitcoin will remain decentralized at all levels.

[odolvlobo]

It is unlikely that manufacturers will put a bitcoin mining chip in every computer, even if bitcoin is ubiquitous. I don't think they could justify the cost vs. increased sales.

[inBitweTrust]

Yes, but if Bitcoin becomes an everyday tool for billions of people, then every cheap laptop in the world will have ASICs built-in.

There are many appliances that may benefit by using Bitcoin ASIC heat energy but a laptop would be one of the last products. Laptops and cell phones need to run cooler and use less electricity to compete and Bitcoin Asics would be extremely counterproductive to those objectives.

I could see Asics in products like hot water heaters, space heaters, dehydrators, coffee heaters, reheating type devices like slow cookers, and any other device that used electricity to create heat. Some of these devices would use an indirect means of transferring the heat to not expose consumers to VOC's form the asic chips. The best suited devices would be ones that needed to continuously produce heat. Thus one should expect both centralization and decentralization in the future of mining with some very specialized mining firms producing a good or service from heat waste -- I.E.. companies that need to dehydrate meat or fruits, large buildings that need to be heated, and other industries that need to heat products. Other aspects of mining should become more decentralized and should subsidize consumer heating products -- IE... space heaters for cold environments and hot water heaters for everywhere(many are already electric).

[runpaint]

That is a real possibility if heaters and all those other products are networked.  Even after I said technology is always advancing, my imagination was still limited to laptops because those already have wi-fi.

[kepo07]

It is unlikely that manufacturers will put a bitcoin mining chip in every computer, even if bitcoin is ubiquitous. I don't think they could justify the cost vs. increased sales.

True, it is expensive to add a feature that an average joe wouldn't use. Also, a redesign of the motherboard would be required and heat output would be much higher.