Next Halving in 2016 Mining consequences ?

[vortexz]

What do you think will happen in 2016 when the next halving is going to happen ?

1. Bitcoin will keep almost same price, and miners will just get half the BTC.

2. Even tho we will mine half bitcoins, bitcoin price will explode just because it's harder to mine.

Which one you belive is more probable to happen ?

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[os2sam]

consequences

Probably the same thing that happened last time.

[vortexz]

yes, sorry, my english is not perfect
what happened last time?

[TheRealSteve]

Probably the same thing that happened last time.

'The last time' was back in November, 2012 - well before the ASIC boom, and still during a rise in mining popularity.

This discussion's been had numerous times.  I don't think anything has changed in the landscape that would change the course of the more recent of those discussions - maybe revisit if/when during the next year and a half there's cause to think different.

[os2sam]

Probably the same thing that happened last time.

'The last time' was back in November, 2012 - well before the ASIC boom, and still during a rise in mining popularity.

That's what I remember, along with a good amount of hysteria.  I was trying to find a timeline with the past halving and price.

[TheRealSteve]

That's what I remember, along with a good amount of hysteria.  I was trying to find a timeline with the past halving and price.

That halving back in 2012 was the only one so far - and plotting it against price and hash rate doesn't really show it having any impact;

The hash rate increase may have sagged a little bit, but wasn't entire out of tone.

The next halving will be in a completely different playing field.

[Raize]

It's hard to say what the halving brings. It's honestly probably priced in for the most part, but a few months after the last halving we had the first ASICs, so people sometimes associate the halving with increased price. In reality, the price had mostly stabilized around $12 at that time after having risen to $15 in August and falling some from there.

[os2sam]

That's what I remember, along with a good amount of hysteria.  I was trying to find a timeline with the past halving and price.

That halving back in 2012 was the only one so far - and plotting it against price and hash rate doesn't really show it having any impact;

Thanks Steve.  Where did that graph come from?

[Bananana]

What do you think will happen in 2016 when the next halving is going to happen ?

1. Bitcoin will keep almost same price, and miners will just get half the BTC.

2. Even tho we will mine half bitcoins, bitcoin price will explode just because it's harder to mine.

Which one you belive is more probable to happen ?

2, only half as much miners dump their bitcoin now, so I expect bitcoin to rise a lot at least 50-100%.

[qs.lab]

consequences

Probably the same thing that happened last time.

grait!

[Meni Rosenfeld]

The halving will have, approximately, the following 3 effects:

1. The Bitcoin price will go up by 26%
2. The difficulty will go down by 20%
3. The revenue per hash will go down by 20% (something which miners need to consider in the decisions they are doing now).

Of course, all 3 can also be affected by factors unrelated to the halving.

[qs.lab]

The halving will have, approximately, the following 3 effects:

1. The Bitcoin price will go up by 26%
2. The difficulty will go down by 20%
3. The revenue per hash will go down by 20% (something which miners need to consider in the decisions they are doing now).

Of course, all 3 can also be affected by factors unrelated to the halving.

ohh

[newIndia]

Probably the same thing that happened last time.

'The last time' was back in November, 2012 - well before the ASIC boom, and still during a rise in mining popularity.

This discussion's been had numerous times.  I don't think anything has changed in the landscape that would change the course of the more recent of those discussions - maybe revisit if/when during the next year and a half there's cause to think different.

That time we experienced ASIC boom. This time it'll be the rise of Gen4 chips and hosted mining aka cloud mining.

[TheRealSteve]

Thanks Steve.  Where did that graph come from?

Hah - Libreoffice; I didn't even bother saving the file.  However, sources are:
1. Block 210000 at blockchain.info to get the timestamp of when that block occurred.
2. Bitcoin Price Index at coindesk.com, just because it's a bit of an average across exchanges and they have a decent CSV export you can work with.
3. Bitcoin Hash Rate at blockchain.info, again because of CSV export.
The graph was then generated using a simple X/Y plot chart.

[TheRealSteve]

That time we experienced ASIC boom. This time it'll be the rise of Gen4 chips and hosted mining aka cloud mining.

The thing with cloud mining is that it just passes the buck and you're not guaranteed a profit any more than if you bought your own hardware; you (and mostly the manufacturers/hosters) are just saving on shipping, support, etc.  Cloud mining in and of itself barely does anything for profitability, except for those manufacturers/hosters where each contract adds up.

The Gen4 chips are slated for 'soon' or mid-2015.  While that's great for that period, imagine the market gets saturated with those more efficient miners.. it's just back to the current situation, where there's certainly smaller miners already calling it quits.  Halving come mid-2016 isn't going to help that any.  It would have to be offset by even more efficient miners, higher exchange rate, what have you.
And thus it's back to crystal ball gazing and discussions that have been had many times before.  All I know for certain is that it'll be a completely different landscape from the last halving; whether that's for better or worse is something for future history books

[boomertoo]

The mining technology will advance exponentially by 2016 and the halving will be a non event, IMHO

[BitCoinNutJob]

The mining technology will advance exponentially by 2016 and the halving will be a non event, IMHO

That means its more advanced for everyone, end result less bitcoin being produced.

[pawel7777]

The halving will have, approximately, the following 3 effects:

1. The Bitcoin price will go up by 26%
2. The difficulty will go down by 20%
3. The revenue per hash will go down by 20% (something which miners need to consider in the decisions they are doing now).

Of course, all 3 can also be affected by factors unrelated to the halving.

How did you come up with those % figures?

The other scenario re price is that since everyone will expect it to go up, there will be a lot of buying pressure shortly before the halving. Therefore, the price may actually go up before, and drop after the halving.

[mwizard]

What do you think will happen in 2016 when the next halving is going to happen ?

1. Bitcoin will keep almost same price, and miners will just get half the BTC.

2. Even tho we will mine half bitcoins, bitcoin price will explode just because it's harder to mine.

Which one you belive is more probable to happen ?

I believe it will be scenario 1).  Everyone knows the change to mining revenue is coming so it is something people can include in planning.

BTC prices may rise slightly before the halving and fall afterwards, as been mentioned by others.  I would be surprised if there was a massive change in bitcoin price.

It is also worth remembering that by 2016 almost all mining will be done in large mining farms in areas with cheap electricity.  These people plan ahead and will plan for the revenue change.

But mining will be greatly affected.  

1) The value of the mining industry will halve overnight.  Suddenly there is half the revenue.   So mining farms will keep marginally profitable miners running up to the halving date and then turn them off.  

2) Difficulty will fall as uneconomic miners, and mining farms, are turned off.  In theory difficulty will fall to half the value before the halving.

3) Sales of new miners will collapse in 2016. People will want to see how the new mining world stabilizes.  In particular people will want to see how fast miners turn of older miners, and the effect on difficulty.  Some mining farms may even run at a loss for a period in the hope that others go under first.  Those left standing after the shakeout will get the spoils.  In the second half of 2016 there may be a glut of cheap uneconomic second hand miners.

[calci]

What do you think will happen in 2016 when the next halving is going to happen ?

1. Bitcoin will keep almost same price, and miners will just get half the BTC.

2. Even tho we will mine half bitcoins, bitcoin price will explode just because it's harder to mine.

Which one you belive is more probable to happen ?

Bitcoin price will definitely increase. Currently around 3-4K is dumped daily by miners.
Once the number goes down, dump will decrease, hence price will be expected to increase.