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Author Topic: Why Bitcoin is dropping and why you should be buying.  (Read 10963 times)
cyberpinoy
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January 04, 2015, 08:43:49 PM
 #21

Dont buy yet, the rice will keep going down and down and down wait till it hits 50 to 75 bucks then maybe think of buying. I wish it would just drop there faster so everyone will start buying it again HAHA.

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neurorit
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January 04, 2015, 08:45:25 PM
 #22

The question is: what are the impacts of a crash of the global finance system on the Bitcoin? Do you think that people would escape their savings in the Bitcoin ("the digital gold")?
If a global crash does occur, I don't think people would like to put in their money into a more volatile digital currency, where they could lost more than 60% of their holdings .
Just Quoting my brother here .

What're some alternatives? And how do they compare to Bitcoin?

I hold gold and silver but Bitcoin's portability make it a lot easier to hide and travel with. Also gold has already been confiscated by .Gov so I see no reason that that couldn't happen again. I guess you have things that you could barter with like liquor, guns/ammo, food items. But these aren't typically seen as a store of value. Typically those who think shit will hit the fan economically want no paper assets, so in my mind math-based assets that can't be forged and are extremely portable make a lot of sense.
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January 04, 2015, 08:45:37 PM
 #23

I couldn't agree with this more:

The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.

The dollar is not going anywhere any time soon. I would like to know 1: why people think this is going to happen? and 2: why people believe the petrodollar system is failing? . The signs in the market point to the exact opposite.



Well I did give one source to my argument. But just research currency swap agreements over the last year of news especially the Yuan and also the BRICS bank which is clearly hoping to become the new IMF and alternative to the dollar system.
General_A
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January 04, 2015, 08:48:42 PM
 #24

I couldn't agree with this more:

The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.

The dollar is not going anywhere any time soon. I would like to know 1: why people think this is going to happen? and 2: why people believe the petrodollar system is failing? . The signs in the market point to the exact opposite.



Well I did give one source to my argument. But just research currency swap agreements over the last year of news especially the Yuan and also the BRICS bank which is clearly hoping to become the new IMF and alternative to the dollar system.

I am aware of all these developments, but why does this mean that the dollars crash is imminent? These kinda of plays will take years to commence.

I am not having a dig im just curious how people come to these conclusions.

nextgencoin
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January 04, 2015, 08:49:25 PM
 #25

The question is: what are the impacts of a crash of the global finance system on the Bitcoin? Do you think that people would escape their savings in the Bitcoin ("the digital gold")?
If a global crash does occur, I don't think people would like to put in their money into a more volatile digital currency, where they could lost more than 60% of their holdings .
Just Quoting my brother here .

What're some alternatives? And how do they compare to Bitcoin?

I hold gold and silver but Bitcoin's portability make it a lot easier to hide and travel with. Also gold has already been confiscated by .Gov so I see no reason that that couldn't happen again. I guess you have things that you could barter with like liquor, guns/ammo, food items. But these aren't typically seen as a store of value. Typically those who think shit will hit the fan economically want no paper assets, so in my mind math-based assets that can't be forged and are extremely portable make a lot of sense.



I completely agree with you. Gold and silver are the traditional way to hold value and Imwouod never say Bitcoinmos superior to them ever. But Bitcoin has anominity and better transport going for it. A balanced view would be assets, including property, precious metals and digital currencies. And the reality is if it did all go MAD MAX which I'm not convinced it will then you might need guns if mayhem ensues and food stores. In the end you can't eat Gold.
neurorit
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January 04, 2015, 08:49:53 PM
 #26

I couldn't agree with this more:

The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.

The dollar is not going anywhere any time soon. I would like to know 1: why people think this is going to happen? and 2: why people believe the petrodollar system is failing? . The signs in the market point to the exact opposite.

Google "de-dollarization" and read some zerohedge.com if you're curious about the "dollars days are numbered" point of view.
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January 04, 2015, 08:51:11 PM
 #27

I couldn't agree with this more:

The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.

The dollar is not going anywhere any time soon. I would like to know 1: why people think this is going to happen? and 2: why people believe the petrodollar system is failing? . The signs in the market point to the exact opposite.

Google "de-dollarization" and read some zerohedge.com if you're curious about the "dollars days are numbered" point of view.

Without sounding arrogant I read zerohedge all the time. I just don't agree with their conclusions.

Same with Jim Willie. I think they make some good points but I think the magnitude effect these occurrences will have on the financial system is currently limited.

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January 04, 2015, 08:51:54 PM
 #28

The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.



Currencies never collapse over decades they collapse more than often before people can get to their banks. The writing has been already on the wall for decades. I would argue since the FED was set up which actually is exactly 100 years....

Ok, I'll bite. Let's say there is a run on all the banks tomorrow and no one in the world is willing to use the dollar. It finally meets its deserved death. People all across the U.S. refuse to go to work. Production all but ceases to exist. People are starving to death because there's nothing to trade for food. What currency fills the vaccum left in international trade? Bitcoin? How does it come to be implimented. Is it taken over by the U.S. government to fix the problem or is it used by Muslems to destroy the evil satan once and for all?

My point is the dollar has nothing to do with the direction of Bitcoin at this point other than the value of Bitcoin is pegged to the dollar. Recessions and economic crisis are going to happen but that isn't going to help Bitcoin.

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January 04, 2015, 08:53:14 PM
 #29

I think bitcoin is dropping because merchants are selling the bitcoins they received during christmas shopping. When those who spent bitcoin replenish their bitcoin holdings, price will rise again.
Most merchants use Coinbase, which means the merchant never owns Bitcoins at all. Coinbase then dumps their incoming Bitcoins on Bitstamp, so they can pay the merchant in fiat. Thus, all the holiday season transactions are over.
nextgencoin
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January 04, 2015, 08:55:35 PM
 #30

I couldn't agree with this more:

The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.

The dollar is not going anywhere any time soon. I would like to know 1: why people think this is going to happen? and 2: why people believe the petrodollar system is failing? . The signs in the market point to the exact opposite.



Well I did give one source to my argument. But just research currency swap agreements over the last year of news especially the Yuan and also the BRICS bank which is clearly hoping to become the new IMF and alternative to the dollar system.

I am aware of all these developments, but why does this mean that the dollars crash is imminent? These kinda of plays will take years to commence.


I think the arguemnt is their are many complicated deriveratives that like like they are 'breaking' so you are seeing unusual counterintuitive signs like the rise of the dollar. The truth is we are in uncharted times, I personally believe almost no one understands deriveratives that's the whole point is they are on purpose exotic and incomprehensible. Many would argue the fincancial system already collapses in 2008 sin e then the FED has just pumped blood into a dead body and zero interests rates is unpresidented. I would argue the reason people can't see all this is because they are given another narrative by the MSM which is patently false.


My point is I'm giving an alternative view to what most are saying, that is my point. Cause 99.9% of people think the dollar rise and Bitcoins drop against it is evidence of strength of the dollar system, I'm saying it could be the opposite. Hearing only one opinion is not being well informed.
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January 04, 2015, 08:56:05 PM
 #31

I think bitcoin is dropping because merchants are selling the bitcoins they received during christmas shopping. When those who spent bitcoin replenish their bitcoin holdings, price will rise again.
Most merchants use Coinbase, which means the merchant never owns Bitcoins at all. Coinbase then dumps their incoming Bitcoins on Bitstamp, so they can pay the merchant in fiat. Thus, all the holiday season transactions are over.

Doesn't Coinbase have its own exchange?
nextgencoin
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January 04, 2015, 08:59:18 PM
 #32

The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.



Currencies never collapse over decades they collapse more than often before people can get to their banks. The writing has been already on the wall for decades. I would argue since the FED was set up which actually is exactly 100 years....

Ok, I'll bite. Let's say there is a run on all the banks tomorrow and no one in the world is willing to use the dollar. It finally meets its deserved death. People all across the U.S. refuse to go to work. Production all but ceases to exist. People are starving to death because there's nothing to trade for food. What currency fills the vaccum left in international trade? Bitcoin? How does it come to be implimented. Is it taken over by the U.S. government to fix the problem or is it used by Muslems to destroy the evil satan once and for all?

My point is the dollar has nothing to do with the direction of Bitcoin at this point other than the value of Bitcoin is pegged to the dollar. Recessions and economic crisis are going to happen but that isn't going to help Bitcoin.



Ok then, the Yuan or possibly a basket of gold backed currencies, the issue is people WILL be looking for an alternative if the collapse comes.

I wouldn't look at recessions etc helping Bitcoin. I would say Bitcoin will help you when recessins and economic crisis come. Bitcoin doesn't need help, it rose a bazillion percent, why does anyone think it's having problems?
General_A
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January 04, 2015, 09:01:53 PM
 #33


I think the arguemnt is their are many complicated deriveratives that like like they are 'breaking' so you are seeing unusual counterintuitive signs like the rise of the dollar. The truth is we are in uncharted times, I personally believe almost no one understands deriveratives that's the whole point is they are on purpose exotic and incomprehensible. Many would argue the fincancial system already collapses in 2008 sin e then the FED has just pumped blood into a dead body and zero interests rates is unpresidented. I would argue the reason people can't see all this is because they are given another narrative by the MSM which is patently false.

Yes - the derivative market is an issue, but not an issue that is likely to blow up soon. The derivative is effectively back-stopped by the central banks. I.e. every time a crash warning rumbles, the fed prints over the problem. Not that this system is sustainable, but this is a global issue - not just a US issue. I know people in the industry who said because of the back stop banks see derivatives as a win-win bet, because any explosion in the derivative market is back-stopped by the fed and insured by .... (i forget the name, some government industry).

Note how all the real wealthy, as in the 0.01% make 60-80% of their wealth in financial assets. None of them decreased their holdings this year. That says more than anything else. These are the real shakers of the economy. They will know of an imminent crash before us.

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January 04, 2015, 09:02:05 PM
Last edit: January 04, 2015, 09:18:13 PM by neurorit
 #34

Without sounding arrogant I read zerohedge all the time. I just don't agree with their conclusions.

Same with Jim Willie. I think they make some good points but I think the magnitude effect these occurrences will have on the financial system is currently limited.

My view is pretty simple. The recent QEs caused a number of asset bubbles which when they finally pop it's going to make the 2008 economic crisis look like nothing. (The recent omnibus bill that slipped in a clause putting all the derivatives banks should be liable for onto the US tax payers tells me they're already planning for this.)

After the last housing bubble popped the FEDs response was QE. So the big question for me is what option does the FED have the next round of deflating bubbles? Eventually the world is going to lose confidence in these Keynesian corportists and the dollar at that point will lose its world-reserve status. Considering the vast majority of dollars are held offshore for trading, if those get dumped, the dollar's demise could happen really fast.

But this is just my view, I have no crystal ball, and I never actually studied economics at university, etc.
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January 04, 2015, 09:03:19 PM
 #35

I think bitcoin is dropping because merchants are selling the bitcoins they received during christmas shopping. When those who spent bitcoin replenish their bitcoin holdings, price will rise again.
Most merchants use Coinbase, which means the merchant never owns Bitcoins at all. Coinbase then dumps their incoming Bitcoins on Bitstamp, so they can pay the merchant in fiat. Thus, all the holiday season transactions are over.

I'd suggest BitPay has a much larger merchant base then CoinBase...
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January 04, 2015, 09:05:13 PM
 #36

We will see a fall to $135 in BTC but as long the trading volume is up, its not a problem to send large amounts and thats important the the currency itself.

Othercoins will come and will show thats the blockchain of BTC is not a unique factor in BTC. Other blockchains will help BTC to get into mainstream. Just my prediction, I am not Merlin.

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January 04, 2015, 09:07:43 PM
 #37

Without sounding arrogant I read zerohedge all the time. I just don't agree with their conclusions.

Same with Jim Willie. I think they make some good points but I think the magnitude effect these occurrences will have on the financial system is currently limited.

My view is pretty simple. The recent QEs caused a number of asset bubbles which when they finally pop it's going to make the 2008 economic crisis look like nothing. (The recent omnibus bill that slipped in a clause putting all the derivatives banks should be liable for onto the US tax payers tells me they're already planning for this.)

After the last housing bubble popped the FEDs response was QE. So the big question for me is what option does the FED have the next round of deflating bubbles? Eventually the world is going to lose confidence in these Keynesian corportists and the dollar at that point will lose it's world-reserve status. Considering the vast majority of dollars are held offshore for trading, if those get dumped, the dollar's demise could happen really fast.

But this just my view, I have no crystal ball, and I never actually studied economics at university, etc.
Yeah of course, I enjoy debating such issues.

Your not totally wrong, I just disagree with the conclusions. After the bubble bursts, then what? This system is currently BETTER than anything prepared in the sidelines. No one on top wants this party to end (apart from Russia, Syria and Iran). It will ruin their wealth. I doubt you want this system to end right now too. It would literally mean chaos. Fuck gold, fuck BTC, a crash of the magnitude some people predict would mean a restart. Restarts are bloody and brutal with no exceptions. They will paper this over in the short term, inflate the debt off in the medium term and system changes in the long term. Were talking decades, not weeks, months, years.  

nextgencoin
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January 04, 2015, 09:08:17 PM
 #38


I think the arguemnt is their are many complicated deriveratives that like like they are 'breaking' so you are seeing unusual counterintuitive signs like the rise of the dollar. The truth is we are in uncharted times, I personally believe almost no one understands deriveratives that's the whole point is they are on purpose exotic and incomprehensible. Many would argue the fincancial system already collapses in 2008 sin e then the FED has just pumped blood into a dead body and zero interests rates is unpresidented. I would argue the reason people can't see all this is because they are given another narrative by the MSM which is patently false.

Yes - the derivative market is an issue, but not an issue that is likely to blow up soon. The derivative is effectively back-stopped by the central banks. I.e. every time a crash warning rumbles, the fed prints over the problem. Not that this system is sustainable, but this is a global issue - not just a US issue. I know people in the industry who said because of the back stop banks see derivatives as a win-win bet, because any explosion in the derivative market is back-stopped by the fed and insured by .... (i forget the name, some government industry).

Note how all the real wealthy, as in the 0.01% make 60-80% of their wealth in financial assets. None of them decreased their holdings this year. That says more than anything else. These are the real shakers of the economy. They will know of an imminent crash before us.


My main problem with most arguments against is everything is rosy so thefore there is no problem. Everything is always fine until it isn't. Do I know the day this is all coming...no. But probably most people won't just like they didn't in all the great market collapses in history.
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January 04, 2015, 09:08:23 PM
 #39

The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.



Currencies never collapse over decades they collapse more than often before people can get to their banks. The writing has been already on the wall for decades. I would argue since the FED was set up which actually is exactly 100 years....

Ok, I'll bite. Let's say there is a run on all the banks tomorrow and no one in the world is willing to use the dollar. It finally meets its deserved death. People all across the U.S. refuse to go to work. Production all but ceases to exist. People are starving to death because there's nothing to trade for food. What currency fills the vaccum left in international trade? Bitcoin? How does it come to be implimented. Is it taken over by the U.S. government to fix the problem or is it used by Muslems to destroy the evil satan once and for all?

My point is the dollar has nothing to do with the direction of Bitcoin at this point other than the value of Bitcoin is pegged to the dollar. Recessions and economic crisis are going to happen but that isn't going to help Bitcoin.



Ok then, the Yuan or possibly a basket of gold backed currencies, the issue is people WILL be looking for an alternative if the collapse comes.

I wouldn't look at recessions etc helping Bitcoin. I would say Bitcoin will help you when recessins and economic crisis come. Bitcoin doesn't need help, it rose a bazillion percent, why does anyone think it's having problems?

Then the IMF helps the Yuan become the new world reserve currency. Everyone in the world rallies around the Yuan trying to keep from starving to death. At this point is Bitcoin pegged to the Yuan? Will the Bitcoin price be more stable because it's pegged to the Yuan? In order for this new system to work and Bitcoin to be a good alternative it needs to have value to people. Where does it get that value from in this new world?

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January 04, 2015, 09:11:54 PM
 #40

Jim Willie, yes. I plan to buy more end of the week.  Hyper inflation, loss of faith in the money, less spending, less money available for investments, concentration of wealth.
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