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Author Topic: Velocity  (Read 1205 times)
waltmarkers
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July 04, 2012, 05:57:33 AM
 #1

So, I've been looking hard for a velocity graph. I know there is a number of transactions graph, andI could do it myself from the block chain.... but.

The total BTC outstanding is 9.37 Mil.

The 24 Hour volume is 1.866 Mil. That's 20% velocity per day. And this velocity is insanely variable. I know it was significantly less 12 hours ago.

1. Does anyone have the history on this?

2. 20% velocity is a bullish sign on it's own, isn't it? The full outstanding volume turning over every 5 days?

Anyone?
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notme
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July 04, 2012, 06:13:26 AM
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So, I've been looking hard for a velocity graph. I know there is a number of transactions graph, andI could do it myself from the block chain.... but.

The total BTC outstanding is 9.37 Mil.

The 24 Hour volume is 1.866 Mil. That's 20% velocity per day. And this velocity is insanely variable. I know it was significantly less 12 hours ago.

1. Does anyone have the history on this?

2. 20% velocity is a bullish sign on it's own, isn't it? The full outstanding volume turning over every 5 days?

Anyone?


https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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July 04, 2012, 07:22:57 AM
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That volume can be people moving btc to themselves so it has to be eaten with a pinch of salt.

waltmarkers
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July 04, 2012, 07:25:32 AM
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That volume can be people moving btc to themselves so it has to be eaten with a pinch of salt.

Sure could be, but 1/5 of people, everyday? Either people are moving around these coins for fun, or there is a massive economy that doesn't show up on Gox or the other exchanges.....

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July 04, 2012, 07:34:38 AM
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That volume can be people moving btc to themselves so it has to be eaten with a pinch of salt.
there is a massive economy that doesn't show up on Gox or the other exchanges.....



I for sure hope so Smiley

Stephen Gornick
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July 04, 2012, 08:06:56 AM
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1. Does anyone have the history on this?

The daily data points are in the .html of this:

 - http://blockchain.info/charts/output-volume?timespan=all

Or you can used Armory, I believe, to get the data using a script.
 (or libbitcoin, or ABE, etc. )

2. 20% velocity is a bullish sign on it's own, isn't it? The full outstanding volume turning over every 5 days?

The problem is, if I send to you 1 BTC, but it came from a 100 BTC coin, was there 1 BTC of "economic" transfer, or 99 BTC (which is the amount of the change transaction)?   You and I know it was 1 BTC, but nobody else really can know that.

The "economic" transfer you think you are seeing is partially due to mixing, partially due to speculating, ...  and a fraction due to true payment for goods and services where bitcoins were used.

This is really the chart that will show organic economic transfer (though it too can be manipulated and/or be misleading):

 - http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=all&daysAverageString=7&scale=1

Also, good information comes from BitcoinDays Destroyed:

 - http://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year  (currently shows ... hardly any old coins are moving)

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July 06, 2012, 07:42:23 AM
 #7

maybe this would be better estimation :

to sum all the lesser parts of the transactions,

if initial address has 145 btc, and transaction is made 27 + 118,
then we could assume that 27 was actual payment
and 118 change

overall, that would better represent actual economic transfers, wouldn't it ?
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July 06, 2012, 08:54:08 AM
 #8

maybe this would be better estimation :

to sum all the lesser parts of the transactions,

if initial address has 145 btc, and transaction is made 27 + 118,
then we could assume that 27 was actual payment
and 118 change

overall, that would better represent actual economic transfers, wouldn't it ?

There's an awful lot of 8K BTC and however coins here:
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=88584.msg975886#msg975886

So if one of those 8,000 gets a 7,500 and a 500, you'll tread it as a 500 spend, even though it really was a 7,500.

The thin is ... nobody knows, at least not right away.  After some days, I might be able to see that some of the 500 got included in transactions that others with the same ancestry that links it to the 8,000, then it might be safe to assume that the 500 was change that came back.  But that isn't knowable right away --- or ever sometimes.

Looking at only the smaller transactions as being actual spendign, then you would likely be safe assuming you never are overestimating transaction volume.

This still can easily be manipulated, so be careful if you are considering using this metric as something to help wiith speculating on the price.

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July 12, 2012, 03:38:50 PM
 #9


The problem is, if I send to you 1 BTC, but it came from a 100 BTC coin, was there 1 BTC of "economic" transfer, or 99 BTC (which is the amount of the change transaction)?   You and I know it was 1 BTC, but nobody else really can know that.


Isn't this similar with dollar bills or any fiduciary form of money ?

In a one-dollar transaction paid with a 100-dollar bill, we see 199 dollar units changing hands. It could be a 99 dollar tx (in smaller denominations) and a 100 dollar tx : no one could tell in the macro economics statistics of velocity, only the parties privy to the transaction.

notme
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July 12, 2012, 09:29:53 PM
 #10


The problem is, if I send to you 1 BTC, but it came from a 100 BTC coin, was there 1 BTC of "economic" transfer, or 99 BTC (which is the amount of the change transaction)?   You and I know it was 1 BTC, but nobody else really can know that.


Isn't this similar with dollar bills or any fiduciary form of money ?

In a one-dollar transaction paid with a 100-dollar bill, we see 199 dollar units changing hands. It could be a 99 dollar tx (in smaller denominations) and a 100 dollar tx : no one could tell in the macro economics statistics of velocity, only the parties privy to the transaction.

With dollars there are two transactions, $100 to the merchant, than $99 to the customer.  With Bitcoin there is 1 BTC sent to the merchant and 99 BTC the customer sends to their own address.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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July 12, 2012, 09:40:39 PM
 #11


The problem is, if I send to you 1 BTC, but it came from a 100 BTC coin, was there 1 BTC of "economic" transfer, or 99 BTC (which is the amount of the change transaction)?   You and I know it was 1 BTC, but nobody else really can know that.


Isn't this similar with dollar bills or any fiduciary form of money ?

In a one-dollar transaction paid with a 100-dollar bill, we see 199 dollar units changing hands. It could be a 99 dollar tx (in smaller denominations) and a 100 dollar tx : no one could tell in the macro economics statistics of velocity, only the parties privy to the transaction.

With dollars there are two transactions, $100 to the merchant, than $99 to the customer.  With Bitcoin there is 1 BTC sent to the merchant and 99 BTC the customer sends to their own address.

Anyway, the point is that change from BTC transactions would not be useful in determining velocity.
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