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Author Topic: Jan 12th to Approx Jan 27th diff thread (3.5%)  (Read 5614 times)
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notlist3d
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January 14, 2015, 03:57:15 PM
 #1

Doing this again to help.  Phil is more then welcome to take back his difficulty threads at any time.

After last week it's looking a little better this week:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    45,493,398,715 (+3.46%)
Adjust time:    After 1995 Blocks, About 14.6 days
Hashrate(?):    297,824,921 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours

It is a moderated thread as name slinging was effecting last thread.  Please keep anti-mining, people bashing, etc out of thread.

As always Happy Mining!
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January 14, 2015, 03:59:39 PM
 #2

Still a lot of time left but looking good:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,858,960,330 (-0.26%)
Adjust time:    After 1767 Blocks, About 13.1 days
Hashrate(?):    301,329,770 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours

Also I appolgize for having to do a moderated thread this week.  Just trying to keep it civil and about mining.
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January 14, 2015, 04:02:43 PM
 #3

lets keep this one free of any 'serious'-ness....

my guess: -8%

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January 14, 2015, 04:11:13 PM
 #4

If BTC stays below $200 we should see a 10%+ drop, if not this cycle then the next.

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January 14, 2015, 04:17:09 PM
 #5

Thank you.  I do appreciate you taking over for  a while.  My wife and I just came back from her brother's place in NYC and he is getting better from his cancer surgery.

 I am getting a new s-5 today and will be posting some fan setups's over the next two days on the s-5 review thread.


Back to diff and btc price.

coin base price is 196

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/   has a small drop (-0.901%)


Blocks   338937
Total BTC   13.723M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   43257172381 in 1767 blks
 
Network total   328382.484 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.26 / 575 s


these prices have really set the industry on notice .  The golden goose can be killed off.

We had a 19000 coin theft beginning of the year.  We had the paycoin attack on bitcoin  which is what it was.  While the coin failed the attack was a success.     Whatttt!    yeah paycoin bleed 10 percent of btc's hash power on a pipe dream coin.

Now think this over for a minute GAW/Zen/paycoin/Josh    (boy Josh comes up with some bad  companies , I know a different Josh)

They pulled a ton of hash power off the BTC network.    So Microsoft/Dell/Warren Buffet/Intel/Walmart/amazon/McDonalds /Visa/Paypal all sit down in a room

they say Digital coin's have a value as a pay system  lets make NEW COIN.    They make new coin as paycoin said it would be.  It would really hurt Bitcoin.

I think a lot of big money people saw how a "Josh" was able to lower the entire btc network by over 10 % for 10 days or so on hype alone.
Paycoin's setup shows the way to beat the fuck out of btc.  I think it has panicked a few holders  into selling off big coinage.
     We may see under 150 usd by the end of the month as the new normal.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 14, 2015, 04:34:06 PM
 #6

Well as long as BTC stays below $200 there is no such thing as ROI, even on the most efficient miners and on cheap electric. If this keeps up I suspect some huge farms will be coming down soon which will have to decrease the difficulty. Sounds like a strategy similar to what OPEC is doing. Lower the prices to find a bottom that will cause miners to shut down...
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January 14, 2015, 04:56:30 PM
 #7

Well as long as BTC stays below $200 there is no such thing as ROI, even on the most efficient miners and on cheap electric. If this keeps up I suspect some huge farms will be coming down soon which will have to decrease the difficulty. Sounds like a strategy similar to what OPEC is doing. Lower the prices to find a bottom that will cause miners to shut down...

well btc at 180 usd and a  diff of 45 to 73 I turn a profit.


I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 14, 2015, 05:00:06 PM
 #8

Well as long as BTC stays below $200 there is no such thing as ROI, even on the most efficient miners and on cheap electric. If this keeps up I suspect some huge farms will be coming down soon which will have to decrease the difficulty. Sounds like a strategy similar to what OPEC is doing. Lower the prices to find a bottom that will cause miners to shut down...

well btc at 180 usd and a  diff of 45 to 73 I turn a profit over power.

but s-3's are really hurting here.  if you do not have an sp20 or an s-5 or an sp30 sp31 sp35  you are a loser.

now if you have a big s-3 or s-4 setup  you can't sell the gear to help buy s-5's or sp20's

If you did the switch over to sp20's or any .5 watt gear you are pretty much a winner with these numbers. If you were slow to switch you are pretty much stuck with a ton of dead gear.



I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 15, 2015, 12:43:13 AM
 #9

Just to be clear Phillip, I assume when you say that you can "profit" at $180 and 70B difficulty, you mean an operating profit. That doesn't mean to suggest that you will be able to have also paid for the mining gear itself, does it? You will have paid for running costs, primarily electricity, and nothing else?
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January 15, 2015, 12:54:18 AM
 #10

Just to be clear Phillip, I assume when you say that you can "profit" at $180 and 70B difficulty, you mean an operating profit. That doesn't mean to suggest that you will be able to have also paid for the mining gear itself, does it? You will have paid for running costs, primarily electricity, and nothing else?

Actually I switched early and made a lot of btc during the nicehash/westhash rush on paycoin renting. so my 8 remaining sp20's are not much left on initial payoff.

But you are correct in that my numbers are paying for running costs.

The sp20 is a case of did you buy it at the right time.  If you were too early you overpaid.  if you were too late you missed the westhash , nicehash payments.  If  you grabbed them at the right time like I did the crash is not so painful.

I also sold 13 or 14 s-3's .  So if I add the s-3 money and the overpayments from nice/westhash my 8 sp20's cost me. 3200 + 2000 = 5200 - 2000(s-3's) = 3200 - 1400 in cashed coins = 1800 out of pocket

maybe 1700 maybe 1900 as of today.   If i mine them at 1200gh x 8 = 9600gh at 4800 watts.  I may earn 2600 over my costs.  So I am not as torched as some.  I could turn a 700 to 900 profit over the 5200 I put up.


My biggest hit was buying  btc the last 6 days I purchased  5btc and I am down at least 500 on that.

But if you sat on s-3's they are close to worthless for resale now. turning to sp20's or s-5's is very hard to do today.


I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 15, 2015, 04:30:30 AM
 #11

Despite the Bitcoin price fall, there is one small bright spot. The difficulty rise may be near zero, with 12+ days to go:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,794,012,725 (-0.40%)
Adjust time:    After 1697 Blocks, About 12.4 days
Hashrate(?):    302,137,553 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
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January 15, 2015, 06:05:13 AM
 #12

BTC price still down but up around 195.  Hopefully we continue to see it go up were around 8-9 percent up on price.

Slowly difficulty is going down.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,678,828,853 (-0.67%)
Adjust time:    After 1686 Blocks, About 12.3 days
Hashrate(?):    301,645,842 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours

It will be interesting to see what happens with hosted miners at some data centers if price continues to be down.  I think some might have hard time paying data centers if we keep going so low on BTC price.
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January 15, 2015, 01:10:17 PM
 #13

price has crept back past 210 usd. the drop in diff to 42.8 would be nice


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/   (-2.57%)      


Blocks   339054
Total BTC   13.726M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   42838021959 in 1650 blks
 
Network total   292288.543 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.57 / 646 s ---------------------------If this stays around the drop may be bigger -4% or -5%

 The Bottom line is a lot of people are stuck with s-3's.  S-3's are more then 60th of the network they don't make much money.

Not as a diff of 43.9 and a price of  210 usd a coin.

I also got back a bit of value on the coins I purchased over the last week.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 15, 2015, 04:20:07 PM
 #14

It will be interesting to see what happens with hosted miners at some data centers if price continues to be down.  I think some might have hard time paying data centers if we keep going so low on BTC price.

The interesting question is how long do the data centres have commitments on power? If they've pre-paid or have contractual obligations then their hashing will stay online as long as the companies involved stay solvent. My guess is that we won't see too many gradual drops from the largest hashing locations, but instead we'll see step drops as whole sites go offline instead.

So far there doesn't seem to be too much evidence of huge amounts of hashing going offline just yet, although realistically it will take a couple of weeks to really be sure unless there are some dramatic reductions. Smaller miners are probably switching off some of their stuff but anything less than about 15 PH/s pretty-much ends up looking like noise in the charts.
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January 15, 2015, 04:28:33 PM
 #15

price has crept back past 210 usd. the drop in diff to 42.8 would be nice


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/   (-2.57%)      

yeah, looks like the rebound happened nicely. Probably gonna dip below $200 again once more, and then hopefully we can finally see it get bck around $250 and begin a real uptrend

i think a -8% change is still very likely, there are probably a lot of machines mining at a slight loss because they expect BTC>$250 again soon. if tat doesnt happen it will keep shaking out all those with high priced power or low efficiency hardware.

Im just glad that of my 20.5TH, 16TH of it is 0.5w/GH or better, and the remainder is an SP10 (~0.9w), S2 (1w), and BTCG (1.2w).  I plan on turning the bitgarden off very soon, as well as the S2, since they are both working at a slight loss. Hopefully the market goes up and in a few weeks they will turn back on

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January 15, 2015, 04:33:32 PM
 #16

It will be interesting to see what happens with hosted miners at some data centers if price continues to be down.  I think some might have hard time paying data centers if we keep going so low on BTC price.

The interesting question is how long do the data centres have commitments on power? If they've pre-paid or have contractual obligations then their hashing will stay online as long as the companies involved stay solvent. My guess is that we won't see too many gradual drops from the largest hashing locations, but instead we'll see step drops as whole sites go offline instead.

So far there doesn't seem to be too much evidence of huge amounts of hashing going offline just yet, although realistically it will take a couple of weeks to really be sure unless there are some dramatic reductions. Smaller miners are probably switching off some of their stuff but anything less than about 15 PH/s pretty-much ends up looking like noise in the charts.

a lot of the big players upgraded to stuff thats <1w/gh, and/or pay <$0.08/kwh worth of costs and maintenance. they can be squeezed a bit further before they have to shut down.

but the farms that never unloaded the AM gear or those A1/dragon units are probably struggling hard right now, even if they pay low power costs.


personally, Im hoping we see a bubble after another 2 weeks of this despair and hashrate shutting down. A bubble causes mining to be profitable to a much wider audience, and the rapid price increases allow hundreds of small miners to deploy more equipment on outlets/locations they had already, compared to months of planning and rollout required by the big guys like Bitfury. typically it helps decentralise it and profits whoever can plug the gear in fastest

24" PCI-E cables with 16AWG wires and stripped ends - great for server PSU mods, best prices https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=563461
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January 15, 2015, 06:43:46 PM
 #17

It will be interesting to see what happens with hosted miners at some data centers if price continues to be down.  I think some might have hard time paying data centers if we keep going so low on BTC price.

The interesting question is how long do the data centres have commitments on power? If they've pre-paid or have contractual obligations then their hashing will stay online as long as the companies involved stay solvent. My guess is that we won't see too many gradual drops from the largest hashing locations, but instead we'll see step drops as whole sites go offline instead.

So far there doesn't seem to be too much evidence of huge amounts of hashing going offline just yet, although realistically it will take a couple of weeks to really be sure unless there are some dramatic reductions. Smaller miners are probably switching off some of their stuff but anything less than about 15 PH/s pretty-much ends up looking like noise in the charts.

a lot of the big players upgraded to stuff thats <1w/gh, and/or pay <$0.08/kwh worth of costs and maintenance. they can be squeezed a bit further before they have to shut down.

but the farms that never unloaded the AM gear or those A1/dragon units are probably struggling hard right now, even if they pay low power costs.


personally, Im hoping we see a bubble after another 2 weeks of this despair and hashrate shutting down. A bubble causes mining to be profitable to a much wider audience, and the rapid price increases allow hundreds of small miners to deploy more equipment on outlets/locations they had already, compared to months of planning and rollout required by the big guys like Bitfury. typically it helps decentralise it and profits whoever can plug the gear in fastest

The A1/dragon who pay data centers to host will really hurt to.  I think we will see quite a few hit ebay.


Difficulty slowly going down.   And around 220 almost on btc price.  So doing a little better.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,327,517,233 (-1.46%)
Adjust time:    After 1618 Blocks, About 11.9 days
Hashrate(?):    294,102,980 GH/s
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January 16, 2015, 05:46:31 AM
 #18

With BTC going up now btcwisdom is showing a upward trend on hashrate.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,454,349,592 (-1.18%)
Adjust time:    After 1536 Blocks, About 11.1 days
Hashrate(?):    302,754,595 GH/s
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January 16, 2015, 06:07:35 AM
 #19

but on www.bitcoincharts.com

 still  lower

Blocks   339172
Total BTC   13.729M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   43225557369 in 1532 blks
 
Network total   373889.925 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.13 / 505 s

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 16, 2015, 07:00:08 AM
 #20

With BTC going up now btcwisdom is showing a upward trend on hashrate.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,454,349,592 (-1.18%)
Adjust time:    After 1536 Blocks, About 11.1 days
Hashrate(?):    302,754,595 GH/s

After nearly 500 blocks done in this cycle the average 504-block time is 10.4 minutes, or ~4% below target.

It looks like there is a lot of hope still in the mining business that BTC will rise. I don't believe that only less than 10% of hashpower would become unprofitable with this recent exchange rate drop. Some are probably just trying to hold out until their next electric bill Smiley

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January 16, 2015, 02:25:17 PM
 #21

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   339209
Total BTC   13.730M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   42892876733 in 1495 blks         this is  (-2.45%)
 
Network total   310567.804 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.92 / 608 s


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:   43,219,778,244         (-1.71%)
Adjust time:   After 1495 Blocks, About 10.8 days
Hashrate(?):   304,322,472 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.4 minutes
3 blocks: 31.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   9:15 (2.2 minutes ago)


It is pretty simple  math we have at least 80ph in s-3's network wide.

If you are over 12 cents a kwatt your s3 is losing money.

I have to think that s3 owners are hoping to go back to a 300 usd price.  They are holding on at least for a while.  

The s3 now sells on ebay for  118 and make a best offer.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Bitmain-Antminer-S3-SHA-256-BTC-Bitcoin-Miner-441GH-s-340w-Used-Full-Function-/261718288439?pt=US_Virtual_Currency&hash=item3cefa02837



and some s3+ are 119


http://www.ebay.com/itm/Bitmain-Antminer-S3-450-GH-Asic-Bitcoin-Miner-SHA256-In-hand-Not-S1-S2-S5-/291320098280?pt=US_Virtual_Currency&hash=item43d407ede8


I have about 200 in ebucks to spend and I would not buy these since they would kill me on power.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 16, 2015, 03:41:17 PM
 #22

Assuming the price holds I think we'll see the S3's and all miners released prior to their introduction slowly get turned off.
Does anyone know if BitFury has their new chip up mining?  They said it would be released around now but I don't think it's actually up in mass yet.
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January 16, 2015, 04:16:58 PM
 #23

Assuming the price holds I think we'll see the S3's and all miners released prior to their introduction slowly get turned off.
Does anyone know if BitFury has their new chip up mining?  They said it would be released around now but I don't think it's actually up in mass yet.

yeah this diff and the next will be very interesting.  Along with btc price.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 16, 2015, 08:26:04 PM
 #24

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,113,243,921 (-1.95%)
Adjust time:    After 1457 Blocks, About 10.6 days

Around 215 per coin.   Guess it could be worse but sure hope to see price go back up a little more.
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January 17, 2015, 12:26:01 AM
 #25

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    43,113,243,921 (-1.95%)
Adjust time:    After 1457 Blocks, About 10.6 days

Around 215 per coin.   Guess it could be worse but sure hope to see price go back up a little more.

my birthday is this Jan 27 .

  So a new diff may come on my birthday.
 I want  a 41 diff and 260 price on my birthday.  I could live with that.

I am getting other fears about the industry.

 Gridseed blades went from 3000 usd to 100 usd and   LTC went from   40 usd to 2 usd.

I can see s-5's selling off at 200usd in an effort from bitmaintech to get out of the business.

I do not think we need this firesale.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 17, 2015, 04:50:18 PM
 #26

If the price were to stabilize between $180-$210 for 90 days how much drop off in hash rate would you all expect? How much, how fast and what impact to the difficulty?

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January 17, 2015, 05:56:11 PM
 #27

If the price were to stabilize between $180-$210 for 90 days how much drop off in hash rate would you all expect? How much, how fast and what impact to the difficulty?

really hard to answer your question.

The 180 - 210 number  puts a lot of pressure on diff.  but will some go out and buy sp20's and s-5's to be able to earn over the price of power.

Also is or does a .2-.3 watt miner exist at a cheap price?

Assuming sp20's and s-5's stay  as the best gear around.  how low do they sell at?

I am 8 sp20's and 1 s-5.

In terms of power available I am just about all in.  maybe 1 more s-5 and I am maxed.

What about the guy with 200 s-3's  he can't get much for them on ebay craig's list etc.

but at 180 his s-3's are in the red.

How about a big farm 2000 s-3's and the farmer did not sell his s-3's to buy s-5's or sp20's

lets give him 4 cent power in the state of washington  and 2 cents for other costs and he is 6 cent power.

his 1ph clears 30000 usd a month.   now if he setup with s-3's in nov 2014  he spent 500000 to build the farm.  say he made 100,000 in nov dec and jan.

  he is 400,000 in the hole but his  cheaper power cost farm is paying above costs. 

he is standing pat.  and hoping to skip the s-5's and the sp20's .  he may have enough back on his investment of 500k in the late spring just in time for new gear.



I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 17, 2015, 06:22:38 PM
 #28

If the price were to stabilize between $180-$210 for 90 days how much drop off in hash rate would you all expect? How much, how fast and what impact to the difficulty?

really hard to answer your question.

The 180 - 210 number  puts a lot of pressure on diff.  but will some go out and buy sp20's and s-5's to be able to earn over the price of power.

Also is or does a .2-.3 watt miner exist at a cheap price?

Assuming sp20's and s-5's stay  as the best gear around.  how low do they sell at?

I am 8 sp20's and 1 s-5.

In terms of power available I am just about all in.  maybe 1 more s-5 and I am maxed.

What about the guy with 200 s-3's  he can't get much for them on ebay craig's list etc.

but at 180 his s-3's are in the red.

How about a big farm 2000 s-3's and the farmer did not sell his s-3's to buy s-5's or sp20's

lets give him 4 cent power in the state of washington  and 2 cents for other costs and he is 6 cent power.

his 1ph clears 30000 usd a month.   now if he setup with s-3's in nov 2014  he spent 500000 to build the farm.  say he made 100,000 in nov dec and jan.

  he is 400,000 in the hole but his  cheaper power cost farm is paying above costs. 

he is standing pat.  and hoping to skip the s-5's and the sp20's .  he may have enough back on his investment of 500k in the late spring just in time for new gear.


Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

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January 17, 2015, 08:08:18 PM
 #29

Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

Isn't it the other way around? Hobbyists can afford to prop it up. Some can squeeze out extra revenue through rentals, P2P, altcoins etc. A farm facing a $100k power bill might not be able to gamble on hodling.

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January 17, 2015, 08:18:13 PM
 #30

Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

Isn't it the other way around? Hobbyists can afford to prop it up. Some can squeeze out extra revenue through rentals, P2P, altcoins etc. A farm facing a $100k power bill might not be able to gamble on hodling.

Rich hobbyists maybe. Multimillion dollar farms probably have the reserve capital to ride out a short downswing. I would think that would kill the little guy. Aren't most of the huge farms in places with really cheap electricity?

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January 17, 2015, 08:48:45 PM
 #31

Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

Isn't it the other way around? Hobbyists can afford to prop it up. Some can squeeze out extra revenue through rentals, P2P, altcoins etc. A farm facing a $100k power bill might not be able to gamble on hodling.

Rich hobbyists maybe. Multimillion dollar farms probably have the reserve capital to ride out a short downswing. I would think that would kill the little guy. Aren't most of the huge farms in places with really cheap electricity?

Ok, let's define a "hobbyist". Is Philip here a hobbyist with his ~10 TH/s ? I'm sure he can afford to run these through the winter even if BTC is $85 Smiley

I don't think farms have reserve capital, it's always been a race to upgrade... and even if they do, why would they burn it instead of shutting off the miners, at least temporarily?

Anyway, I'm not rich at all but I've ROIed on my S3s so I can dump them at any price... and keep running those S5s and SP20s as long as they make at least a penny. I'm certainly expecting some big farms stop mining before I do. I might be paying more for power but I have very little overhead and I have prepaid most of my costs... we'll see who bails first  Grin

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January 17, 2015, 09:12:13 PM
 #32

Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

Isn't it the other way around? Hobbyists can afford to prop it up. Some can squeeze out extra revenue through rentals, P2P, altcoins etc. A farm facing a $100k power bill might not be able to gamble on hodling.

Rich hobbyists maybe. Multimillion dollar farms probably have the reserve capital to ride out a short downswing. I would think that would kill the little guy. Aren't most of the huge farms in places with really cheap electricity?

Ok, let's define a "hobbyist". Is Philip here a hobbyist with his ~10 TH/s ? I'm sure he can afford to run these through the winter even if BTC is $85 Smiley

I don't think farms have reserve capital, it's always been a race to upgrade... and even if they do, why would they burn it instead of shutting off the miners, at least temporarily?

Anyway, I'm not rich at all but I've ROIed on my S3s so I can dump them at any price... and keep running those S5s and SP20s as long as they make at least a penny. I'm certainly expecting some big farms stop mining before I do. I might be paying more for power but I have very little overhead and I have prepaid most of my costs... we'll see who bails first  Grin

Or maybe no one switches off and everyone runs in the red. The hash rate and difficult never drop. Then there's a greater loss to everyone and they effectively extended the time to profit out to 180 days even if the price increases in 90 days.

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January 17, 2015, 09:27:52 PM
 #33

Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

Isn't it the other way around? Hobbyists can afford to prop it up. Some can squeeze out extra revenue through rentals, P2P, altcoins etc. A farm facing a $100k power bill might not be able to gamble on hodling.

Rich hobbyists maybe. Multimillion dollar farms probably have the reserve capital to ride out a short downswing. I would think that would kill the little guy. Aren't most of the huge farms in places with really cheap electricity?
I don't think the mining farms would likely continue to mine if they cannot earn enough to cover their operating costs. If their goal was to buy bitcoin then they would just buy on an exchange. If their goal was to ROI in terms of dollars then they would turn off their farm until the difficulty and price are at levels that would allow them to mine profitable again

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January 17, 2015, 09:36:14 PM
 #34

Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

Isn't it the other way around? Hobbyists can afford to prop it up. Some can squeeze out extra revenue through rentals, P2P, altcoins etc. A farm facing a $100k power bill might not be able to gamble on hodling.

Rich hobbyists maybe. Multimillion dollar farms probably have the reserve capital to ride out a short downswing. I would think that would kill the little guy. Aren't most of the huge farms in places with really cheap electricity?
I don't think the mining farms would likely continue to mine if they cannot earn enough to cover their operating costs. If their goal was to buy bitcoin then they would just buy on an exchange. If their goal was to ROI in terms of dollars then they would turn off their farm until the difficulty and price are at levels that would allow them to mine profitable again
That seems reasonable but any guess how much, how fast and what impact to the difficulty?

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January 17, 2015, 09:58:45 PM
 #35

Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

Isn't it the other way around? Hobbyists can afford to prop it up. Some can squeeze out extra revenue through rentals, P2P, altcoins etc. A farm facing a $100k power bill might not be able to gamble on hodling.

Rich hobbyists maybe. Multimillion dollar farms probably have the reserve capital to ride out a short downswing. I would think that would kill the little guy. Aren't most of the huge farms in places with really cheap electricity?
I don't think the mining farms would likely continue to mine if they cannot earn enough to cover their operating costs. If their goal was to buy bitcoin then they would just buy on an exchange. If their goal was to ROI in terms of dollars then they would turn off their farm until the difficulty and price are at levels that would allow them to mine profitable again
That seems reasonable but any guess how much, how fast and what impact to the difficulty?
The question of the impact to the difficulty is directly tied to how much. I would say that the large mining farms would likely be quicker to react to changes in price/difficulty as they have much more money invested and it is their business. The current markup of found blocks in the last 24 hours includes ~25% from "unknown" sources, and 3% of "unknown with 1AcAj9p" (according to this which should be roughly accurate) and I would speculate that most if not all of this is corporate farmers. Plus you have some other amount of smaller corporate farms that mine on pools. So you have at the very least 28% of the network being controlled by large farms. They likely have various electric costs so they would not all turn off at once.

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January 17, 2015, 10:02:59 PM
 #36

Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

Isn't it the other way around? Hobbyists can afford to prop it up. Some can squeeze out extra revenue through rentals, P2P, altcoins etc. A farm facing a $100k power bill might not be able to gamble on hodling.

Rich hobbyists maybe. Multimillion dollar farms probably have the reserve capital to ride out a short downswing. I would think that would kill the little guy. Aren't most of the huge farms in places with really cheap electricity?
I don't think the mining farms would likely continue to mine if they cannot earn enough to cover their operating costs. If their goal was to buy bitcoin then they would just buy on an exchange. If their goal was to ROI in terms of dollars then they would turn off their farm until the difficulty and price are at levels that would allow them to mine profitable again
That seems reasonable but any guess how much, how fast and what impact to the difficulty?


 great questions and very hard to answer .  this 180-210 btc price is not the death number for lots of us.
 
for example my power cost for feb mar apr  may =  about 400 usd a month or 1600.

  If I offer the sp20's here on bitcoin talk for 400 bucks and pay the shipping. I get 3200 maybe my  shipping is 200.

 I net 3k  now who may buy at 400 each I do not know but I am cheaper then sp tech  for underclocked gear not pushed hard.

I would need to decide what to do soon. I am debating listing the sp20's  on the marketplace.  I do not know.

 I know I can afford to mine until next Jan 2016 no worries even if the coins were worth 25 usd a piece.
I would lose about 2200 usd  If prize stayed at 25 usd and diff froze. Would I do that no if diff froze I would think I am fighting a losing battle.
But if price drops to 25 and stays stable diff would tank a lot.

 I have to think no major data center could mine at  the price of 50 to 75  a coin for more then 2 or 3 months.  Right now I will mine and watch.
 

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 17, 2015, 11:57:24 PM
 #37

Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

Isn't it the other way around? Hobbyists can afford to prop it up. Some can squeeze out extra revenue through rentals, P2P, altcoins etc. A farm facing a $100k power bill might not be able to gamble on hodling.

Rich hobbyists maybe. Multimillion dollar farms probably have the reserve capital to ride out a short downswing. I would think that would kill the little guy. Aren't most of the huge farms in places with really cheap electricity?
I don't think the mining farms would likely continue to mine if they cannot earn enough to cover their operating costs. If their goal was to buy bitcoin then they would just buy on an exchange. If their goal was to ROI in terms of dollars then they would turn off their farm until the difficulty and price are at levels that would allow them to mine profitable again
That seems reasonable but any guess how much, how fast and what impact to the difficulty?


 great questions and very hard to answer .  this 180-210 btc price is not the death number for lots of us.
 
for example my power cost for feb mar apr  may =  about 400 usd a month or 1600.

  If I offer the sp20's here on bitcoin talk for 400 bucks and pay the shipping. I get 3200 maybe my  shipping is 200.

 I net 3k  now who may buy at 400 each I do not know but I am cheaper then sp tech  for underclocked gear not pushed hard.

I would need to decide what to do soon. I am debating listing the sp20's  on the marketplace.  I do not know.

 I know I can afford to mine until next Jan 2016 no worries even if the coins were worth 25 usd a piece.
I would lose about 2200 usd  If prize stayed at 25 usd and diff froze. Would I do that no if diff froze I would think I am fighting a losing battle.
But if price drops to 25 and stays stable diff would tank a lot.

 I have to think no major data center could mine at  the price of 50 to 75  a coin for more then 2 or 3 months.  Right now I will mine and watch.
 

Thank you both for the answers. I'm kind of worried about the possibility that miners will hang on for several months until the possibility of profiting is way out the window and then decide to switch off en masse. With a major drop in hash rate the possibility of concentrating the remaining into a few hands increases and with it the possibility of an attack increases. It's easy to discuss mining (profit and loss) and lose sight of the fact that we're really discussing the security system of the coin.

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January 18, 2015, 12:07:13 AM
 #38

Thanks for answering. You're not really expecting it to have a massive effect then? I would think if the price stabilized below $200 it would force small time miners to switch off. Large farms might have an incentive to keep mining and hold the coin for a better payoff in the future. I would think small miners would be forced to shut down. They're less likely to afford being able to mine at a loss for three months.

Isn't it the other way around? Hobbyists can afford to prop it up. Some can squeeze out extra revenue through rentals, P2P, altcoins etc. A farm facing a $100k power bill might not be able to gamble on hodling.

Rich hobbyists maybe. Multimillion dollar farms probably have the reserve capital to ride out a short downswing. I would think that would kill the little guy. Aren't most of the huge farms in places with really cheap electricity?
I don't think the mining farms would likely continue to mine if they cannot earn enough to cover their operating costs. If their goal was to buy bitcoin then they would just buy on an exchange. If their goal was to ROI in terms of dollars then they would turn off their farm until the difficulty and price are at levels that would allow them to mine profitable again
That seems reasonable but any guess how much, how fast and what impact to the difficulty?


 great questions and very hard to answer .  this 180-210 btc price is not the death number for lots of us.
 
for example my power cost for feb mar apr  may =  about 400 usd a month or 1600.

  If I offer the sp20's here on bitcoin talk for 400 bucks and pay the shipping. I get 3200 maybe my  shipping is 200.

 I net 3k  now who may buy at 400 each I do not know but I am cheaper then sp tech  for underclocked gear not pushed hard.

I would need to decide what to do soon. I am debating listing the sp20's  on the marketplace.  I do not know.

 I know I can afford to mine until next Jan 2016 no worries even if the coins were worth 25 usd a piece.
I would lose about 2200 usd  If prize stayed at 25 usd and diff froze. Would I do that no if diff froze I would think I am fighting a losing battle.
But if price drops to 25 and stays stable diff would tank a lot.

 I have to think no major data center could mine at  the price of 50 to 75  a coin for more then 2 or 3 months.  Right now I will mine and watch.
 

Thank you both for the answers. I'm kind of worried about the possibility that miners will hang on for several months until the possibility of profiting is way out the window and then decide to switch off en masse. With a major drop in hash rate the possibility of concentrating the remaining into a few hands increases and with it the possibility of an attack increases. It's easy to discuss mining (profit and loss) and lose sight of the fact that we're really discussing the security system of the coin.

Well I like the idea of bitcoin as a possible hedge against your homeland (whatever country you are from)  having a crazy policy or price drop.

Kind of like a bar of gold or a few diamonds just in case.

In the last 25 years from 1990 to 2015 I believe wiki says  55 coups in different countries.
So the idea of having some btc in cyber space feels good to me. I kind of think this is the single best reason to support BTC.  Most people are tossed about by their countries rules and regs BTC unlock us a bit from the system.
I will always mine a bit   just to keep things going. I may not mine 5k an hour 24/7/365 like I am doing right now.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 18, 2015, 12:15:22 AM
 #39

Thank you both for the answers. I'm kind of worried about the possibility that miners will hang on for several months until the possibility of profiting is way out the window and then decide to switch off en masse. With a major drop in hash rate the possibility of concentrating the remaining into a few hands increases and with it the possibility of an attack increases. It's easy to discuss mining (profit and loss) and lose sight of the fact that we're really discussing the security system of the coin.
Well I would say that at-home miners will likely (accidentally) remain "on" for some time after their operation is no longer profitable simply because they will not run the calculation as to how much money they are actually making (or loosing).

You also need to take into consideration that it is always "cold" in some part of the world. During these periods if home miners were to turn off their heat and use their miners to heat their home then they would effectively be getting free (or greatly reduced price) electricity.

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January 18, 2015, 12:45:38 AM
 #40

I like to think that independent miners would keep running to secure the network but simple economics might keep that from happening. I see a possibility that large mining farms have so concentrated the mining power that if they were to all shut down one could switch on just long enough to do some damage. The concept of logical self interest isn't all encompassing and can't for tell every possible motivation for an attack.

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January 18, 2015, 01:43:21 AM
 #41

I like to think that independent miners would keep running to secure the network but simple economics might keep that from happening. I see a possibility that large mining farms have so concentrated the mining power that if they were to all shut down one could switch on just long enough to do some damage. The concept of logical self interest isn't all encompassing and can't for tell every possible motivation for an attack.
The economics of home mining are not as cut and dry as the cost of electricity verses the value of the bitcoin mined.

I for example pay ~7.4 cents per KwH for electricity. My two S5s use roughly 1200 watts per hour. However since I am running them in my apartment I no longer need to have my heat on that uses roughly 2000 watts per hour. Granted I would not need my heat on 24 hours per day however this should be accounted for by the fact that the electric usage of the S5s is less then that of my heat. As a result I essentially have free electricity for my S5s while it is cold enough to need heat in my apartment.

It is obviously profitable for me to run my S5's now even if I was paying 7.4 cents per KwH, however next winter when this would likely no longer be the case, if I have not sold them (and have turned them off due to lack of my ability to run them profitably) then I would likely turn them back on for heat and to generate a small amount of bitcoin in the process.

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January 18, 2015, 02:38:53 AM
 #42

I like to think that independent miners would keep running to secure the network but simple economics might keep that from happening. I see a possibility that large mining farms have so concentrated the mining power that if they were to all shut down one could switch on just long enough to do some damage. The concept of logical self interest isn't all encompassing and can't for tell every possible motivation for an attack.

I doubt that any hashrate drop will be so disruptive as to create any attack risk. Even if it drops by half you would still need a massive 150 PH/s to do a 51% and where would it come from?

I'm sure the network will be fine, diff drops, some miners switch off, perhaps exchange rate goes up a bit if coins are mined 10-20% slower until next adjustment, in other words it should be able to balance itself out.

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January 18, 2015, 02:58:46 AM
 #43

I like to think that independent miners would keep running to secure the network but simple economics might keep that from happening. I see a possibility that large mining farms have so concentrated the mining power that if they were to all shut down one could switch on just long enough to do some damage. The concept of logical self interest isn't all encompassing and can't for tell every possible motivation for an attack.

I doubt that any hashrate drop will be so disruptive as to create any attack risk. Even if it drops by half you would still need a massive 150 PH/s to do a 51% and where would it come from?

I'm sure the network will be fine, diff drops, some miners switch off, perhaps exchange rate goes up a bit if coins are mined 10-20% slower until next adjustment, in other words it should be able to balance itself out.

Let's hope.

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January 18, 2015, 09:20:35 AM
 #44

I like to think that independent miners would keep running to secure the network but simple economics might keep that from happening. I see a possibility that large mining farms have so concentrated the mining power that if they were to all shut down one could switch on just long enough to do some damage. The concept of logical self interest isn't all encompassing and can't for tell every possible motivation for an attack.

I doubt that any hashrate drop will be so disruptive as to create any attack risk. Even if it drops by half you would still need a massive 150 PH/s to do a 51% and where would it come from?

I'm sure the network will be fine, diff drops, some miners switch off, perhaps exchange rate goes up a bit if coins are mined 10-20% slower until next adjustment, in other words it should be able to balance itself out.
I think he does make a valid point. As it stands right now (prior to the massive price drop) both bitmain and SP are having trouble selling their equipment, as evidenced by their massive discounts, group buys, expanding into reversible payment methods, ect.

The current selloff and any potential future selloff will only exaggerate this.

This will result in someone potentially being able to purchase a large amount of the network hashrate very cheaply with the possibility of being able to potentially attack the network. 

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January 18, 2015, 02:41:27 PM
 #45

I like to think that independent miners would keep running to secure the network but simple economics might keep that from happening. I see a possibility that large mining farms have so concentrated the mining power that if they were to all shut down one could switch on just long enough to do some damage. The concept of logical self interest isn't all encompassing and can't for tell every possible motivation for an attack.

I doubt that any hashrate drop will be so disruptive as to create any attack risk. Even if it drops by half you would still need a massive 150 PH/s to do a 51% and where would it come from?

I'm sure the network will be fine, diff drops, some miners switch off, perhaps exchange rate goes up a bit if coins are mined 10-20% slower until next adjustment, in other words it should be able to balance itself out.
I think he does make a valid point. As it stands right now (prior to the massive price drop) both bitmain and SP are having trouble selling their equipment, as evidenced by their massive discounts, group buys, expanding into reversible payment methods, ect.

The current selloff and any potential future selloff will only exaggerate this.

This will result in someone potentially being able to purchase a large amount of the network hashrate very cheaply with the possibility of being able to potentially attack the network. 

Yes, that scenario is exactly what I'm talking about. I worry less about an attack when the price is stable and profitable for miners. When it becomes unprofitable and dropping or stabilizes at an unprofitable price point that creates an opportunity to exploit the weakness of the network.

At some point in the future I expect businesses like BitPay to take over mining in a big way. When this happens the network will be more centralized between a few businesses but safer because their profit will really exist in their primary business model. Mining, for them, will only be a sidebar necessary to secure their business investment. They will have no incentive to do anything but keep the network safe. Today the network is unstable because it's controlled by large pools/farms that have no other method of funding the mining operation except the mining. When they switch-off then anyone with enough power can switch-on and ultimately control the network. It would only take a small window of opportunity to do this.

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January 18, 2015, 06:19:03 PM
 #46

I like to think that independent miners would keep running to secure the network but simple economics might keep that from happening. I see a possibility that large mining farms have so concentrated the mining power that if they were to all shut down one could switch on just long enough to do some damage. The concept of logical self interest isn't all encompassing and can't for tell every possible motivation for an attack.

I doubt that any hashrate drop will be so disruptive as to create any attack risk. Even if it drops by half you would still need a massive 150 PH/s to do a 51% and where would it come from?

I'm sure the network will be fine, diff drops, some miners switch off, perhaps exchange rate goes up a bit if coins are mined 10-20% slower until next adjustment, in other words it should be able to balance itself out.
I think he does make a valid point. As it stands right now (prior to the massive price drop) both bitmain and SP are having trouble selling their equipment, as evidenced by their massive discounts, group buys, expanding into reversible payment methods, ect.

The current selloff and any potential future selloff will only exaggerate this.

This will result in someone potentially being able to purchase a large amount of the network hashrate very cheaply with the possibility of being able to potentially attack the network. 

Yes, that scenario is exactly what I'm talking about. I worry less about an attack when the price is stable and profitable for miners. When it becomes unprofitable and dropping or stabilizes at an unprofitable price point that creates an opportunity to exploit the weakness of the network.

At some point in the future I expect businesses like BitPay to take over mining in a big way. When this happens the network will be more centralized between a few businesses but safer because their profit will really exist in their primary business model. Mining, for them, will only be a sidebar necessary to secure their business investment. They will have no incentive to do anything but keep the network safe. Today the network is unstable because it's controlled by large pools/farms that have no other method of funding the mining operation except the mining. When they switch-off then anyone with enough power can switch-on and ultimately control the network. It would only take a small window of opportunity to do this.
Services like bitpay probably should get into the mining business (if they are not already). Doing so would greatly reduce their risk of being the victim of double spend attacks and would allow them to even accept 0 fee transactions.

I would however make a counter point to your concern, that is similar to a recent argument as to why PoW is superior to PoS. If someone were to buy up a lot of mining equipment cheaply and were to attack the network then they would lose out on their investment on the mining equipment (this may not matter if it was cheap enough) but also on future mining revenue. As it stands now miners will only be able to make roughly 1% (it is probably closer to 0.75%) of the total revenue they would mine over the course of their useful life. This percentage is probably lower when the difficulty has recently taken a huge drop. I think it is fair to say that any major attack on the network would likely be discovered within 48 hours of it starting, so an attacker would potentially lose out on ~98% of their potential mining revenue by attacking the network (this assumes that an attack were to cause confidence in bitcoin to be wiped out and have it's value go to essentially zero).

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January 18, 2015, 07:32:14 PM
 #47

I like to think that independent miners would keep running to secure the network but simple economics might keep that from happening. I see a possibility that large mining farms have so concentrated the mining power that if they were to all shut down one could switch on just long enough to do some damage. The concept of logical self interest isn't all encompassing and can't for tell every possible motivation for an attack.

I doubt that any hashrate drop will be so disruptive as to create any attack risk. Even if it drops by half you would still need a massive 150 PH/s to do a 51% and where would it come from?

I'm sure the network will be fine, diff drops, some miners switch off, perhaps exchange rate goes up a bit if coins are mined 10-20% slower until next adjustment, in other words it should be able to balance itself out.
I think he does make a valid point. As it stands right now (prior to the massive price drop) both bitmain and SP are having trouble selling their equipment, as evidenced by their massive discounts, group buys, expanding into reversible payment methods, ect.

The current selloff and any potential future selloff will only exaggerate this.

This will result in someone potentially being able to purchase a large amount of the network hashrate very cheaply with the possibility of being able to potentially attack the network. 

Yes, that scenario is exactly what I'm talking about. I worry less about an attack when the price is stable and profitable for miners. When it becomes unprofitable and dropping or stabilizes at an unprofitable price point that creates an opportunity to exploit the weakness of the network.

At some point in the future I expect businesses like BitPay to take over mining in a big way. When this happens the network will be more centralized between a few businesses but safer because their profit will really exist in their primary business model. Mining, for them, will only be a sidebar necessary to secure their business investment. They will have no incentive to do anything but keep the network safe. Today the network is unstable because it's controlled by large pools/farms that have no other method of funding the mining operation except the mining. When they switch-off then anyone with enough power can switch-on and ultimately control the network. It would only take a small window of opportunity to do this.
Services like bitpay probably should get into the mining business (if they are not already). Doing so would greatly reduce their risk of being the victim of double spend attacks and would allow them to even accept 0 fee transactions.

I would however make a counter point to your concern, that is similar to a recent argument as to why PoW is superior to PoS. If someone were to buy up a lot of mining equipment cheaply and were to attack the network then they would lose out on their investment on the mining equipment (this may not matter if it was cheap enough) but also on future mining revenue. As it stands now miners will only be able to make roughly 1% (it is probably closer to 0.75%) of the total revenue they would mine over the course of their useful life. This percentage is probably lower when the difficulty has recently taken a huge drop. I think it is fair to say that any major attack on the network would likely be discovered within 48 hours of it starting, so an attacker would potentially lose out on ~98% of their potential mining revenue by attacking the network (this assumes that an attack were to cause confidence in bitcoin to be wiped out and have it's value go to essentially zero).

What if they want the value to go to zero? The current thinking is one dimensional. There are more reasons to attack the network than just to double spend and profit is only one reason for action. A government, a competitor (Visa/MasterCard) or several of them working together could kill Bitcoin easly and spend almost nothing to do it. They wouldn't even need the resources they threw at Silk Road. If I were going to attempt to destroy Bitcoin I would use your mining equipment to do it. I would host mining equipment somewhere electricty is cheap then get people to ship me their equipment. I would run it honestly until the farm was a large percentage of the network and execute my plan. Miners switching off just speeds up that process.

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January 18, 2015, 07:57:36 PM
 #48

What if they want the value to go to zero? The current thinking is one dimensional. There are more reasons to attack the network than just to double spend and profit is only one reason for action. A government, a competitor (Visa/MasterCard) or several of them working together could kill Bitcoin easly and spend almost nothing to do it. They wouldn't even need the resources they threw at Silk Road.
I don't think the government would need the value the cost of  mining equipment to become very cheap to attack the network. They have a near unlimited amount of resources and bitcoin does not pose any serious threat to the US government/currency (the same is true for other major governments). Bitcoin poses to help the economy (and in tern governments) of smaller/weaker countries (eg 3rd world countries).

A payment processor like Visa/MC (or even Western Union) may have somewhat of an incentive to attempt to destroy bitcoin however they would probably also not need to wait for the price of mining equipment to fall (for example Visa reported a profit of $1.07 billion in the 3 months ending September 30 2014) plus them doing so would likely be considered anti-competative and could potentially result in criminal/civil action against them by the DOJ (it isn't like the DOJ hasn't ever used it's own interpretation of laws against major companies before). A best case scenario would be that their reputation would be greatly harmed.

You might argue that they could buy up the mining equipment without revealing their identities, however just like it is difficult to "mix" 10,000 BTC, it is difficult to buy up PHs worth of mining equipment.

If I were going to attempt to destroy Bitcoin I would use your mining equipment to do it. I would host mining equipment somewhere electricty is cheap then get people to ship me their equipment. I would run it honestly until the farm was a large percentage of the network and execute my plan. Miners switching off just speeds up that process.
This could be a threat. I would need to think about this one for a little bit. Although there are very few hosting providers that control large amounts of equipment like that.

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January 19, 2015, 12:00:12 AM
Last edit: January 19, 2015, 12:14:17 AM by philipma1957
 #49

well for now

Price 206 usd

 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:   43,363,458,449 (-1.38%)
Adjust time:   After 1142 Blocks, About 8.1 days
Hashrate(?):   321,684,441 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   18:55 (4.3 minutes ago)

****************************************
****************************************

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/   (-3.12%)



Blocks   339562
Total BTC   13.739M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   42598199361 in 1142 blks
 
Network total   366207.958 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.98 / 516 s


So I see  big farms with a slew of s-3's sticking it out.

here is why :

  A 1 ph farm of s-3's with net op costs of 4.1  cents a kwatt  earns  1598 usd a day over op costs.
  A 1 ph farm of s-3's with net op costs of 5.1 cents a kwatt   earns 1411 usd  a day  over op costs.
  A 1 ph farm of s-3's with net op costs of 6.1 cents a kwatt   earns 1224  usd  a day over op costs.
 A 1 ph farm  of s-3's with net op costs of 7.1 cents a kwatt   earns  1037 usd  a day over op costs.
 A 1 ph farm of s-3's  with net op costs of 8.1 cents a kwatt   earns   849 usd   a day over op costs.
 A 1 ph  farm of s-3's with net op costs of 9.1 cents a kwatt   earns  662  usd  a day over op costs.



So in every case above they most  likely will mine and cash coins.

 I am not so sure they upgrades to s-5's
I am not so sure they sell off the gear.

And at the price of 206 usd a coin they are still earning over op costs.






I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 19, 2015, 08:35:14 PM
 #50

After ~1000 blocks in this cycle (halfway point) we have this:

Estimated Next Difficulty:   43,313,520,359 (-1.50%)
Block Generation Time (Average of last 504 blocks):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours

So the most recent 504 blocks were running at 10.2 minutes average, or ~2% below target. The first ~500 blocks of this cycle were ~4% below, making the first half about 3% below target. This doesn't sound like much, but if you look at past data you would see that this is one of the slowest first-half performances, so there is a good chance we'll see a decrease this cycle. It likely won't be double digits though as I was hoping for:

To end up at -10%: hashrate would have to decrease immediately by ~16% from the current level and stay there until the end of the cycle.
To end up at + (diff increase): hashrate would have to increase immediately by ~5%+ from the current level and stay there until the end of the cycle.

Unless I messed up my napkin math, in which case shame on you for reading this far Grin

After nearly 500 blocks done in this cycle the average 504-block time is 10.4 minutes, or ~4% below target.

It looks like there is a lot of hope still in the mining business that BTC will rise. I don't believe that only less than 10% of hashpower would become unprofitable with this recent exchange rate drop. Some are probably just trying to hold out until their next electric bill Smiley

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January 19, 2015, 11:08:44 PM
 #51

slight drop

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:   43,095,517,516   (-1.99%)
Adjust time:   After 1005 Blocks, About 7.2 days
Hashrate(?):   316,383,090 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.8 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   18:5 (3.2 minutes ago)

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   339699
Total BTC   13.742M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   42529538155 in 1005 blks  (-3.27%)
 
Network total   316900.229 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.04 / 596 s


I figure drops this small may be revealing that a lot of data centers are still making money.
I did expect  -6 to 9% for this due to price drop in coins.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 20, 2015, 12:38:28 AM
 #52

I figure drops this small may be revealing that a lot of data centers are still making money.
I did expect  -6 to 9% for this due to price drop in coins.

I'm not sure that DCs are actually making money, just that the alternatives to continuing to run would be to lose even more money. If you have a contract for power and facilities and have to pay for both whether you use them or not then you probably have to just keep paying and hope that the coin price improves. Similarly if you're supporting cloud mining then those miners probably have contracts that have to be honoured too.

My guess is that any reduction will be gradual, based on contracts expiring, but even if several DCs with 1 PH/s of capacity went offline the impact wouldn't really be that noticeable.
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January 20, 2015, 01:08:53 AM
 #53

I figure drops this small may be revealing that a lot of data centers are still making money.
I did expect  -6 to 9% for this due to price drop in coins.

I'm not sure that DCs are actually making money, just that the alternatives to continuing to run would be to lose even more money. If you have a contract for power and facilities and have to pay for both whether you use them or not then you probably have to just keep paying and hope that the coin price improves. Similarly if you're supporting cloud mining then those miners probably have contracts that have to be honoured too.

My guess is that any reduction will be gradual, based on contracts expiring, but even if several DCs with 1 PH/s of capacity went offline the impact wouldn't really be that noticeable.

I used 1ph farms for simple math.  Any farm running at .8 watts per gh and under 10 cents is not going to turn off.

S-3's and s-4's do .7 to .8 watts   they will continue to run at this price.  I would say if they can maintain diff under 45xxxx they can run on and on and on.

We may see diff between 40-45  and price about 200 until the spring as it does not kill off bigger miners with <10 cents a kwatt and under .8 watts a gh.

It does destroy just about all miners in europe or usa that have 15 +cents a watt.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 20, 2015, 04:04:08 AM
 #54

So I guess when prices go to $100 or so would be the safest time to buy mining ASICs?

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January 20, 2015, 06:06:02 AM
 #55

So I guess when prices go to $100 or so would be the safest time to buy mining ASICs?

If you are talking about profitability, at any BTC exchange rate the factors determining the purchase decision are still the same:

- price of the miner (if it costs $300 per TH/s then at $100 it's 3BTC - steep, but see below)
- difficulty and your expectation of its future direction
- power cost ratio with the BTC exchange rate and your expectation of its future direction, unless your utility bills you in BTC, which would greatly simplify this part Smiley

But if it's a hobby, just buy an S5 or an SP20 now, makes no big difference really. It's mostly a lottery ticket anyway.

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January 20, 2015, 12:43:06 PM
 #56

Tues morning in NJ.


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

BTC = 210

Blocks   339772
Total BTC   13.744M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   42410605778 in 932 blks     This is a (-3.55%) drop
 
Network total   275671.053 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.25 / 685 s

Note 5.25 blocks per hour   also note 275 PH estimate.   It would be interesting to see if this continues if it does  the drop in diff will go over  6%.

5.25 block rate is 13% less then normal   average that in with the 3.55 drop so far and it looks like  -8% is possible.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 20, 2015, 01:40:29 PM
 #57

Tues morning in NJ.


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

BTC = 210

Blocks   339772
Total BTC   13.744M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   42410605778 in 932 blks     This is a (-3.55%) drop
 
Network total   275671.053 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.25 / 685 s

Note 5.25 blocks per hour   also note 275 PH estimate.   It would be interesting to see if this continues if it does  the drop in diff will go over  6%.

5.25 block rate is 13% less then normal   average that in with the 3.55 drop so far and it looks like  -8% is possible.

the 275 PH/s number looks like it's normal statistical variance so far. On the 13th the daily rate was 229, but on the 14th it was back at 330.

Over on https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty the grey line has been above the red one for pretty-much the whole difficulty level so far so that tends to suggest that we'll stay well above an -7.6% level. The downward trend seems likely though.
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January 20, 2015, 04:47:40 PM
Last edit: January 21, 2015, 12:45:29 PM by philipma1957
 #58

right now bitcoincharts is predicting much lower then bitcoin wisdom.

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   339788
Total BTC   13.745M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   42229565780 in 916 blks
 
Network total   251018.507 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   4.78 / 752 s-------- This is very low number it is -20%

The blocks per hour needs to be watched a lot if it stays under 5 for a day in a row it means a big farm has shut down.

 
It was 5.25     at 932 blocks to go.
it is now 4.78  at 916 blocks to go.
it is now 4.88  at 898 blocks to go.
it is now 5.14 at  880 blocks to go.
it is now 5.26 at  866 blocks to go.   this is a 66 block time period in which the rate has been -10 to  -20
it is now 5.17 at  862 blocks to go.
it is now 5.07 at  857  blocks
it is now 5.06 at  812 blocks
 it is not a long enough time period  to be sure if a major player has turn down  about 13 hours time. I will check it in a while.


If this stays low diff will drop big.     I will check on this a few times today weds and thurs to see if it was variance or a big shut down.

the new numbers dropped us to.
http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   339842
Total BTC   13.746M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   41869404718 in 862 blks  this is now (-4.78%)
 
Network total   270976.587 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.17 / 697 s >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> not sure how long it stays here but if it stays here we will see a good  drop  come Jan 27 or 28.



I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 21, 2015, 12:49:51 PM
 #59

so from 932 to  812 is 120 blocks and the average is 5 blocks an hour not 6 as it should be.

5/6 =  down 16.67%

  It is now a day .  120 blocks/5 block an hour  = 24 hours  of  -15%

needs to be watched longer to see if this keeps up.

This is a secondary account .
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January 21, 2015, 12:53:35 PM
 #60

so from 932 to  812 is 120 blocks and the average is 5 blocks an hour not 6 as it should be.

5/6 =  down 16.67%

  It is now a day .  120 blocks/5 block an hour  = 24 hours  of  -15%

needs to be watched longer to see if this keeps up.


It was    5.25 at  932 blocks ---    0
it is now 4.78 at  916 blocks ---  16
it is now 4.88 at  898 blocks ---  34
it is now 5.14 at  880 blocks ---  52
it is now 5.26 at  866 blocks ---  66   
it is now 5.17 at  862 blocks ---  70
it is now 5.07 at  857 blocks ---  75
it is now 5.06 at  812 blocks ---  120



I will keep track here since this looks more like a trend then variance.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 21, 2015, 01:27:36 PM
 #61

so from 932 to  812 is 120 blocks and the average is 5 blocks an hour not 6 as it should be.

5/6 =  down 16.67%

  It is now a day .  120 blocks/5 block an hour  = 24 hours  of  -15%

needs to be watched longer to see if this keeps up.


It was    5.25 at  932 blocks ---    0
it is now 4.78 at  916 blocks ---  16
it is now 4.88 at  898 blocks ---  34
it is now 5.14 at  880 blocks ---  52
it is now 5.26 at  866 blocks ---  66   
it is now 5.17 at  862 blocks ---  70
it is now 5.07 at  857 blocks ---  75
it is now 5.06 at  812 blocks ---  120



I will keep track here since this looks more like a trend then variance.

I'll bet this is variance. If you look at this chart http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png the hashrate didn't even touch Jan 13th lows and is rising again.

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January 21, 2015, 02:08:29 PM
 #62

so from 932 to  812 is 120 blocks and the average is 5 blocks an hour not 6 as it should be.

5/6 =  down 16.67%

  It is now a day .  120 blocks/5 block an hour  = 24 hours  of  -15%

needs to be watched longer to see if this keeps up.


It was    5.25 at  932 blocks ---    0
it is now 4.78 at  916 blocks ---  16
it is now 4.88 at  898 blocks ---  34
it is now 5.14 at  880 blocks ---  52
it is now 5.26 at  866 blocks ---  66  
it is now 5.17 at  862 blocks ---  70
it is now 5.07 at  857 blocks ---  75
it is now 5.06 at  812 blocks ---  120
it is now 5.59 at  804 blocks ---  128


I will keep track here since this looks more like a trend then variance.

I'll bet this is variance. If you look at this chart http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png the hashrate didn't even touch Jan 13th lows and is rising again.

you could be correct as we are now at  

Blocks/hour   5.59     at   block 804    .

this is a jump up  but still hard to know as the Block per hour is more real time then any other site.  believe it is the last 10 blocks on this site.

that 5.59 may be high and a variance over 5  rather then a variance under 6.


I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 21, 2015, 03:25:50 PM
 #63

If you need real time, watch this https://blockchain.info/blocks/   Wink . But watching that would be totally crazy from probability point of view, there's too much variance. Also it hints that bitcoincharts uses larger span for calculation because just by quick look in last 2 hrs 15 blocks have been found which is much faster than it should (blocks 339893-339907). But again, it's absolutely useless to look at data block by block. Even 1 day of data (144 blocks) is absolutely useless when watching hashrate. If you look at chart here http://nextdifficulty.com/ you can see how extremely volatile is one day hashrate compared to 1 week hashrate, thus barely usable for any assumptions...

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January 21, 2015, 03:48:08 PM
 #64

things are slowly shaping up for about -3.5% change i think.

seems like a lot of miners are still running, even if its at a loss. I thought the price staying at <210 would shake out a lot of the equipment that pays >0.15/kwh. The fact that even an SP3X at 0.5w/gh is losing money in parts of europe (>0.25/kwh) hurts my brain

24" PCI-E cables with 16AWG wires and stripped ends - great for server PSU mods, best prices https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=563461
No longer a wannabe - now an ASIC owner!
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January 21, 2015, 04:00:36 PM
Last edit: January 21, 2015, 08:48:59 PM by philipma1957
 #65

If you need real time, watch this https://blockchain.info/blocks/   Wink . But watching that would be totally crazy from probability point of view, there's too much variance. Also it hints that bitcoincharts uses larger span for calculation because just by quick look in last 2 hrs 15 blocks have been found which is much faster than it should (blocks 339893-339907). But again, it's absolutely useless to look at data block by block. Even 1 day of data (144 blocks) is absolutely useless when watching hashrate. If you look at chart here http://nextdifficulty.com/ you can see how extremely volatile is one day hashrate compared to 1 week hashrate, thus barely usable for any assumptions...

1 day is not enough to project one diff adjustment of  15 days.  but keeping track of it is easy.


It was    5.25 at  932 blocks ---    0
it is now 4.78 at  916 blocks ---  16
it is now 4.88 at  898 blocks ---  34
it is now 5.14 at  880 blocks ---  52
it is now 5.26 at  866 blocks ---  66  
it is now 5.17 at  862 blocks ---  70
it is now 5.07 at  857 blocks ---  75
it is now 5.06 at  812 blocks ---  120
it is now 5.59 at  804 blocks ---  128
it is now 5.35 at  790 blocks ---  142 ---newest number
it is now 5.69 at  781 blocks ---  151 3:47 pm est jan 21

these are solid drops    more then the

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Estimated Next Difficulty:   42,821,227,056   (-2.62%)

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 23, 2015, 09:22:26 AM
 #66

We lost jan 22 due to bitcointalk server crash.  diff has trended down just a bit  maybe we can go to -5%  about 4 days left

current price is   225 usd


 http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   340158
Total BTC   13.754M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   42232570407 in 546 blks     >>>> (-3.95%)
 
Network total   280001.700 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.34 / 674 s



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:   42,562,624,122>>>>>> (-3.20%)
Adjust time:   After 545 Blocks, About 3.9 days
Hashrate(?):   290,321,246 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.4 minutes
3 blocks: 31.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   4:20 (30.0 seconds ago)

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 23, 2015, 11:38:02 AM
 #67

lol you guys keep making fools of yourself by calling difficulty every time dont you?

I swear i can make better prediction by just flipping a coin.

3.5%  vs -2.5%  .....so close.

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January 23, 2015, 12:04:47 PM
 #68

I'll bet this is variance. If you look at this chart http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png the hashrate didn't even touch Jan 13th lows and is rising again.

Seems likely, but the problem is that there's absolutely no way to tell other than with the benefit of hindsight in several weeks time :-) The only thing we can say is that we're well within the normal variance distribution. The 8% last time is starting to look like it was probably an overshoot but even that's still unclear at this point.
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January 23, 2015, 02:26:18 PM
 #69

Looks like a fairly good drop. The 504-block line on bitcoinwisdom has taken a dive and with ~500 blocks to go we have roughly this for the first three 500-block segments:

-4%
-2%
-5%

We should end up below -4%.

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January 23, 2015, 02:37:55 PM
 #70

bitcoincharts

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


is really trending down

Blocks   340181
Total BTC   13.755M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   42144271728 in 523 blks  (-4.15%)
 
Network total   257852.098 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   4.92 / 732 s >>>>>>>   4.92/6 = 0.82 or an 18% drop short term.

  this number bears watching is has been way down some what up and now way down.
only 523 blocks to go. I will try to post back on this every few hours.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 23, 2015, 03:37:35 PM
 #71

lol you guys keep making fools of yourself by calling difficulty every time dont you?

I swear i can make better prediction by just flipping a coin.

3.5%  vs -2.5%  .....so close.



Some one should do a study to verify there is a correlation between trust level and rude, inflammatory, adolescent forum member posts.
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January 23, 2015, 03:57:01 PM
 #72

...

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


...


Blocks/hour   4.92 / 732 s  523 blocks   >>>>>>>   4.92/6 = 0.82 or an 18% drop short term.
Blocks/hour   5.28 / 682 s  508 blocks   >>>>>>>   5.28/6=  0.88 or  a  12% drop
 
...
 this number bears watching is has been way down some what up and now way down.
... I will try to post back on this every few hours.


Still quite low.  MY thoughts are keep looking at this number. If it was to stay at 6 diff is 0.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 23, 2015, 05:03:12 PM
 #73

lol you guys keep making fools of yourself by calling difficulty every time dont you?

I swear i can make better prediction by just flipping a coin.

3.5%  vs -2.5%  .....so close.

Some one should do a study to verify there is a correlation between trust level and rude, inflammatory, adolescent forum member posts.

im pretty sure there is a STRONG correlation between "trust<1" and "ignore button use"

looks like block times are sliding a bit, possibly people realizing that the price isnt going back to $300 very soon. if it keeps up for another 2-3 days we'll see something close to -3.8% (which is good in my books - ill mine and hold some coins for the eventual price spike (a 1-yr bear market is pretty extraordinary for bitcoin, but i doubt it can drag on for another year without going bust or shooting past $600 when regulations become clearer

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January 23, 2015, 08:38:59 PM
Last edit: January 24, 2015, 01:50:21 AM by philipma1957
 #74

lol you guys keep making fools of yourself by calling difficulty every time dont you?

I swear i can make better prediction by just flipping a coin.

3.5%  vs -2.5%  .....so close.

Some one should do a study to verify there is a correlation between trust level and rude, inflammatory, adolescent forum member posts.

im pretty sure there is a STRONG correlation between "trust<1" and "ignore button use"

looks like block times are sliding a bit, possibly people realizing that the price isnt going back to $300 very soon. if it keeps up for another 2-3 days we'll see something close to -3.8% (which is good in my books - ill mine and hold some coins for the eventual price spike (a 1-yr bear market is pretty extraordinary for bitcoin, but i doubt it can drag on for another year without going bust or shooting past $600 when regulations become clearer
 

I bolded a strong agreement to that statement.


meanwhile short term last day or so :

Blocks/hour   4.92 / 732 s  523 blocks   >>>>>>>   4.92/6 = 0.82 or an 18% drop short term.


Blocks/hour   5.28 / 682 s  508 blocks   >>>>>>>   5.28/6=  0.88 or  a  12% drop


Blocks/hour   5.27 / 684 s  487 blocks >>>>>>>>> 5.27/6 = 0.878  or a 12.1%

Blocks/hour   5.07 / 711 s  480 blocks >>>>>>>>> 5.07/6   = 0.845  or a 15.5% drop


Blocks/hour   4.85 / 742 s  466 blocks >>>>>>>>> 4.85/6 = 0.808 or a 19.2% drop

these numbers may  mean we do  -5% in 4 days or so.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 24, 2015, 04:22:02 AM
Last edit: January 25, 2015, 12:13:42 AM by philipma1957
 #75

lol you guys keep making fools of yourself by calling difficulty every time dont you?

I swear i can make better prediction by just flipping a coin.

3.5%  vs -2.5%  .....so close.

Some one should do a study to verify there is a correlation between trust level and rude, inflammatory, adolescent forum member posts.

im pretty sure there is a STRONG correlation between "trust<1" and "ignore button use"

looks like block times are sliding a bit, possibly people realizing that the price isnt going back to $300 very soon. if it keeps up for another 2-3 days we'll see something close to -3.8% (which is good in my books - ill mine and hold some coins for the eventual price spike (a 1-yr bear market is pretty extraordinary for bitcoin, but i doubt it can drag on for another year without going bust or shooting past $600 when regulations become clearer
 

I bolded a strong agreement to that statement.


meanwhile short term last day or so :

Blocks/hour   4.92 / 732 s  523 blocks   >>>>>>>   4.92/6 = 0.82 or an 18% drop short term.


Blocks/hour   5.28 / 682 s  508 blocks   >>>>>>>   5.28/6=  0.88 or  a  12% drop


Blocks/hour   5.27 / 684 s  487 blocks >>>>>>>>> 5.27/6 = 0.878  or a 12.1%

Blocks/hour   5.07 / 711 s  480 blocks >>>>>>>>> 5.07/6   = 0.845  or a 15.5% drop


Blocks/hour   4.85 / 742 s  466 blocks >>>>>>>>> 4.85/6 = 0.808 or a 19.2% drop

these numbers may  mean we do  -5% in 4 days or so.


Blocks/hour   4.76 / 756 s  452 blocks      4.76/6 = 0.793   or   a 20.7%  drop
Blocks/hour   4.68 / 769 s  409 blocks      4.68/6 = 0.780      -22%
Blocks/hour   5.03 / 716 s  383 blocks      5.03/6 = 0.838     -16.2 %
Blocks/hour   5.26 / 684 s  346 blocks      5.26/6 = 0.876     -12.4%

these are a strong indication that more people or   farms or  miners are shutting down.

bitcoincharts has  the next diff under 42.  which is around a 4.7% drop

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty is now starting to show  closer to that -4.7%


Bitcoin Difficulty:   43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:   42,119,885,688  >>>>>>>  (-4.21%)
Adjust time:   After 383 Blocks, About 2.8 days
Hashrate(?):   290,932,648 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   12:45 (1.3 minutes ago)

-4.21%   is pretty good.  please notice price is now 245 usd

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 25, 2015, 01:36:07 PM
 #76

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:   41,866,116,133 (-4.79%)
Adjust time:   After 275 Blocks, About 2.0 days
Hashrate(?):   287,601,872 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.7 minutes--------------------------------This is nice and slow
3 blocks: 32.0 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   8:30 (4.5 minutes ago)


Looks like we will come close to -5%

This is a secondary account .
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January 25, 2015, 02:32:01 PM
 #77

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   340434
Total BTC   13.761M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   41854671185 in 270 blks    >>>>>>>>     -(4.81%)  but current rate has been lower so -5% or -5.5% can happen
 
Network total   269589.548 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.14 / 701 s >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  still more then 10%   so most likely someone has power downed a big farm

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January 25, 2015, 03:57:05 PM
 #78

This is looking good for the next two weeks, exchange rate nearing $250 helps too.


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January 25, 2015, 05:15:57 PM
 #79

This is looking good for the next two weeks, exchange rate nearing $250 helps too.



Still worse than before the crash though

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January 25, 2015, 05:43:11 PM
 #80

This is looking good for the next two weeks, exchange rate nearing $250 helps too.



Still worse than before the crash though

well under 300-350 range.

I have 11th at .5 watts

 I clear 550 a month. So feb and march = 1100

april and may = 1100 .  I am at 2200 usd  and I will need to sell of 9 sp20's and 1 s-5 .

 In may. they should get 200 each x 10 = 2000

 so I will get 4400 back. I already got enough return on these say 3k  total 7400 after power and their cost was about 4.6k

I may profit 2-2.8k

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January 25, 2015, 06:05:41 PM
 #81

This is looking good for the next two weeks, exchange rate nearing $250 helps too.



Still worse than before the crash though

True, but as long as the S3s that I bought in July and have ROIed twice over still keep making money I can't complain.

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January 25, 2015, 06:31:34 PM
 #82

Been busy in past week.  Happy to see price rising.  Helps me on a few rigs make it through winter remaining profitable. 
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January 25, 2015, 06:42:03 PM
 #83

This is looking good for the next two weeks, exchange rate nearing $250 helps too.



Still worse than before the crash though

True, but as long as the S3s that I bought in July and have ROIed twice over still keep making money I can't complain.

yeah I have 2x s-3's running at 2.4 cents a kwatt.  they have run since july 1st batch .

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 26, 2015, 01:01:55 AM
 #84

This is looking good for the next two weeks, exchange rate nearing $250 helps too.



Still worse than before the crash though

True, but as long as the S3s that I bought in July and have ROIed twice over still keep making money I can't complain.

probably true in BTC terms, but NOT in dollar terms.
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January 26, 2015, 01:21:28 AM
 #85

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   340490
Total BTC   13.762M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   41786349117 in 214 blks   >>>>>> ( -4.96%)
 
Network total   279140.555 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.32 / 677 s  -------------------------- still lower then  the estimate above.



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:   41,767,820,825 (-5.01%)
Adjust time:   After 214 Blocks, About 1.6 days
Hashrate(?):   276,705,290 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.8 minutes -----------------------------still lower then the estimate above.
3 blocks: 32.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   20:20 (3.0 minutes ago)


Price is jumping as I type 264 usd

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January 26, 2015, 02:14:53 AM
 #86

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   340490
Total BTC   13.762M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   41786349117 in 214 blks   >>>>>> ( -4.96%)
 
Network total   279140.555 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.32 / 677 s  -------------------------- still lower then  the estimate above.



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:   41,767,820,825 (-5.01%)
Adjust time:   After 214 Blocks, About 1.6 days
Hashrate(?):   276,705,290 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.8 minutes -----------------------------still lower then the estimate above.
3 blocks: 32.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   20:20 (3.0 minutes ago)


Price is jumping as I type 264 usd

they should have waited for ghash cloud shutdown before announcing the coinbase exchange; then we might have gotten -10%
they will not shutdown if the price goes back to $320.
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January 26, 2015, 02:20:57 AM
 #87

Well if we can do the -5% or -6% drop this time.

Then have a slow drift up in price to just under 300 it is good for a lot of miners.


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January 26, 2015, 06:31:57 AM
 #88

Well if we can do the -5% or -6% drop this time.

Then have a slow drift up in price to just under 300 it is good for a lot of miners.



I would agree a negative would be very nice.   And the price is getting a lot better then the low 200's.  At 200 a coin I was having to start a new plan for some gear I planned to ride out during winter.  Luckily it appears I will be doing good through winter if this continues. 

Even at around .09 cents for electricity some machines were awful tight margins on running at 200.
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January 26, 2015, 07:49:43 AM
 #89

BTC price is now well over $300 per coin as I type this. What a ride......  Smiley
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January 26, 2015, 08:22:45 AM
 #90

With less than 200 blocks to go -6% drop is 95% sure. Together with BTC price bump nice short term opportunity for cloud mining speculation

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January 26, 2015, 10:57:45 AM
 #91

BTC price is now well over $300 per coin as I type this. What a ride......  Smiley

One heck of a ride indeed.  Very happy to see this.   Hard to do any long term planning with this BTC trend.   Around 100 dollars up or so in a week.
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January 26, 2015, 11:01:52 AM
 #92

Drop in difficulty would be most welcome indeed  Cheesy
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January 26, 2015, 11:52:01 AM
 #93

BTC price is now well over $300 per coin as I type this. What a ride......  Smiley

One heck of a ride indeed.  Very happy to see this.   Hard to do any long term planning with this BTC trend.   Around 100 dollars up or so in a week.


 I purchased 5.5 coins as the prices were dropping.
 I sold 5.5 coins as the prices rose. My net profit  was about  100 bucks.  

we are just at 302 on coinbase.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:   41,485,794,891 >>>>>> (-5.65%)
Adjust time:   After 161 Blocks, About 1.2 days
Hashrate(?):   276,330,145 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.9 minutes ---------------------------this is -10% so we could do -6%
3 blocks: 32.8 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/
Blocks   340543
Total BTC   13.764M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   41554383399 in 161 blks >>>>>>>>>>> (-5.49%)
 
Network total   261978.079 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   4.99 / 721 s -------------------- this is -16% so we may do -6%

to have diff at 41.2 and coins at 310 on my birthday JAN 27th  Would be really nice.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 26, 2015, 11:17:23 PM
 #94

I keep hoping to see neg 6 but i think will be high neg 5.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:    41,367,917,072 (-5.92%)
Adjust time:    After 96 Blocks, About 17.6 hours
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January 26, 2015, 11:38:23 PM
 #95

yeah

 http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   340608
Total BTC   13.765M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   41417600938 in 96 blks
 
Network total   269542.910 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.14 / 701 s  -----------------------This is  -14.33  %

If it stayed  at -14 for the next  96 blocks      vs   - 5.92 for the first 1920 blocks      we could drop to  -  6.32 % . 

     So -5 to - 6.5  is a very safe bet for the next diff.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 27, 2015, 01:22:02 AM
 #96

lets keep this one free of any 'serious'-ness....

my guess: -8%

looks like it will actually be a rounded -6%, which is still fantastic in my mind. Its likely we will continue to see adjustments around 0% until the price begins staying above $300.
cant wait for my 3xSP20 to show up this week

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January 27, 2015, 04:19:05 AM
Last edit: January 27, 2015, 09:55:21 AM by xstr8guy
 #97

Price is jumping as I type 264 usd

So much for that "price jumping". It jumped right back down to the $250s after a very brief visit in the 300s.

I'm continuing to mine and hodl but I'm starting to feel like a chump.  Tongue
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January 27, 2015, 08:02:26 AM
 #98

I have been following difficulty predictions for a while and found out that until 4-5 days before diff change it's pure guessing regardless of method  Smiley This is chart of estimates in time before todays difficulty change:


Only few days before difficulty change all the predictions start to unify. At the beginning of the period bitcoinwisdom was overly upside (because of wrong recalc algo) and bitcoincharts is most conservative because it always starts close to zero. I will be dumping cryptanalys.is from watching as their predictions are totall mess lately.

Live chart version is here http://www.nextdifficulty.com/#others

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January 27, 2015, 09:46:29 AM
 #99

I have been following difficulty predictions for a while and found out that until 4-5 days before diff change it's pure guessing regardless of method  Smiley This is chart of estimates in time before todays difficulty change:


Only few days before difficulty change all the predictions start to unify. At the beginning of the period bitcoinwisdom was overly upside (because of wrong recalc algo) and bitcoincharts is most conservative because it always starts close to zero. I will be dumping cryptanalys.is from watching as their predictions are totall mess lately.

Live chart version is here http://www.nextdifficulty.com/#others

The problem here is that the Poisson process nature of mining and the relatively short window of blocks found (2016) means that there's a huge amount of variance affecting any difficulty change. When things are expanding rapidly then these are less obvious because +/- 6% doesn't seem dramatic against a backdrop of +20% but when things are much more static it's very difficult to tell the signal from the noise (it's mostly noise). Right now, for example, we may be seeing some large DCs powering down, but it's equally possible that we're just seeing a natural return to normal after what looked like a statistical blip two weeks ago. The problem is that two weeks ago there was no way of knowing if things were trending upwards or not (although this seems very unlikely).

The one thing that we probably can now say with some confidence is that hash rates will now be tied to the BTC price far more than they were for the last 18 months (something I predicted 9 months ago - long term trends do work :-)) unless someone successfully manages to convince very large numbers of people to decentralise the network (unlikely while BTC prices aren't racing upwards). BTC prices aside, technology improvements should almost certainly give us a 2x to 3x increase in global hash rates as more power-efficient hardware comes online but even if the BTC price went back to $1000 it seems unlikely that the network capacity would increase much more than 10x
philipma1957
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January 27, 2015, 12:23:18 PM
 #100




 
BTC prices aside, technology improvements should almost certainly give us a 2x to 3x increase in global hash rates as more power-efficient hardware comes online but even if the BTC price went back to $1000 it seems unlikely that the network capacity would increase much more than 10x


I have to agree with you for the most part.  Slow growth.  Jan of 2016 a 400 to 500ph network looks a lot more likely then a 2000ph network.

Wall Street and Coinbase Exchange may just drive the price up this year tossing all predictions of growth out the window.  In the meantime I am mining.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
judypug1956
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January 27, 2015, 01:47:48 PM
 #101

About 2 hours to go

price = 258

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:   41,307,845,790>>>>>>>>>>>>> (-6.06%) <<<<<<<<<<<<< New Number
Adjust time:   After 11 Blocks, About 2.0 hours
Hashrate(?):   280,264,096 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.1 minutes
3 blocks: 33.2 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   8:45 (2.3 minutes ago)


Not that bad at all.

This is a secondary account .
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January 27, 2015, 02:46:09 PM
 #102

woohoo -6.15% with 1.5 hours to go, looking good for those who predicted -6%, spot on keep up the good work
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January 27, 2015, 03:43:20 PM
 #103

it is in !!

Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895    -6.14%           295,442,739 GH/s

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 27, 2015, 03:54:08 PM
 #104

it is in !!

Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895    -6.14%           295,442,739 GH/s

Any early predictions for next adjustment and what are predictions based on please?
philipma1957
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January 27, 2015, 04:04:34 PM
 #105

it is in !!

Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895    -6.14%           295,442,739 GH/s

Any early predictions for next adjustment and what are predictions based on please?

see new thread;


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=938186.0


 I use  3 figures  my guess is -2 to -4

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 27, 2015, 05:01:13 PM
 #106

it is in !!

Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895    -6.14%           295,442,739 GH/s


couple this with the low btc price and miners are in doing well atm.
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January 27, 2015, 05:21:53 PM
 #107

Locking topic as it is over.   Final stats:
Jan 27 2015    41,272,873,895    -6.14%    295,442,739 GH/s

Please use new thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=938186.0
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