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Author Topic: A second bubble?  (Read 4805 times)
evoorhees
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July 10, 2012, 06:53:52 PM
 #21

I predict a price around $10-$20 by end of the year. This is not because the price "broke through" $7 just now, but because I know of certain developments in bitcoinworld that support such a price (and the above price target does not include speculative froth, but simply a reasonable market price given the fundamentals).

Let's also remember that any price increase anywhere below $32, if a bubble, is less of a bubble than we had last year, for the economy is far stronger now than it was a year ago. In other words, if we shoot up to $25, it might be a bubble, but it's a far smaller bubble than we had prior. The fundamentals are far more supportive of such a price now than prior.



Can you please eleborate on those fundamentals and certain developments in bitcoinworld.
It would be good to know too

Nope Smiley
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July 10, 2012, 06:57:29 PM
 #22

I predict a price around $10-$20 by end of the year. This is not because the price "broke through" $7 just now, but because I know of certain developments in bitcoinworld that support such a price (and the above price target does not include speculative froth, but simply a reasonable market price given the fundamentals).

Let's also remember that any price increase anywhere below $32, if a bubble, is less of a bubble than we had last year, for the economy is far stronger now than it was a year ago. In other words, if we shoot up to $25, it might be a bubble, but it's a far smaller bubble than we had prior. The fundamentals are far more supportive of such a price now than prior.



Can you please eleborate on those fundamentals and certain developments in bitcoinworld.
It would be good to know too

Nope Smiley
Then why bring it up in the first place? Are we playing Bruce Wagner again, all hype, 0 substance, $100 by end of the month?

I mean, a bear could do the same thing and tell you he knows some secret fundamental that will make Bitcoins go back to 6 cents.

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July 10, 2012, 07:02:46 PM
 #23

I predict a price around $10-$20 by end of the year. This is not because the price "broke through" $7 just now, but because I know of certain developments in bitcoinworld that support such a price (and the above price target does not include speculative froth, but simply a reasonable market price given the fundamentals).

Let's also remember that any price increase anywhere below $32, if a bubble, is less of a bubble than we had last year, for the economy is far stronger now than it was a year ago. In other words, if we shoot up to $25, it might be a bubble, but it's a far smaller bubble than we had prior. The fundamentals are far more supportive of such a price now than prior.



Can you please eleborate on those fundamentals and certain developments in bitcoinworld.
It would be good to know too

Nope Smiley
Then why bring it up in the first place? Are we playing Bruce Wagner again, all hype, 0 substance, $100 by end of the month?

I mean, a bear could do the same thing and tell you he knows some secret fundamental that will make Bitcoins go back to 6 cents.

LOL are you comparing me to Bruce Wagner? Hopefully I've demonstrated that I am not someone of "0 substance." People who know me, trust me, and know that I don't make vapid claims. I'm involved in building many of the things to which I'm referring, and it's not yet time to announce them, so I don't. 

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July 10, 2012, 07:07:35 PM
 #24

I think the only thing that could stop the escalation in the price would be an outside intervention of the bitcoin network, last year were theft and hackers, maybe this year some government wants to attack against bitcoin  Huh that will be something new and history has shown that people get scared easily  Tongue

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July 10, 2012, 07:24:50 PM
 #25

Last year, few realized that bitcoins could be stolen in hacks.  That freaked a lot of people out.  This year, everyone knows that they can be stolen and hacked, and that they can also be protected.  Someone gets hacked, and the market correctly says ho-hum, since it understands that the risk of hacking can be mitigated with cold wallets, and correctly realizes that any successful theft probably had much to do with mismanaging wallets.

I find it hard to credit few understood the risks of hacking. Looking back, I distinctly remember thinking we'll see significant losses to theft due to poor security, and the mt. gox debacle was the first big confirmation of that hunch. I'm not that smart, so anyone seriously interested in Bitcoin must have anticipated hacking. I think it's more that we didn't know what, exactly, we should defend against, and that most people aren't that savvy at computer security. Even if you know you should guard against burglars, it doesn't do much good if you don't understand they can break a window instead of coming through the front door...

You're right, though, that hacks are probably priced in now. They will keep happening, but the market's been innoculated against it. On the other hand, the gox order book has been very peculiar lately, what with the walls on both buy and sell sides boxing the price into a rather narrow range. Whether it's one player or a few... Gox knows.

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July 10, 2012, 07:34:36 PM
 #26

Are we playing Bruce Wagner again, all hype, 0 substance, $100 by end of the month?

Well, the exchange rate has risen enough for Bruce to suddenly find Bitcoin interesting again. A pretty strong indicator in my opinion...
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July 10, 2012, 08:51:34 PM
 #27

Meh, I'm no good at trading BTC/USD, so I guess the rally is meaningless to me. I'll just keep calmly dollar-cost averaging into BTC over time.
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July 11, 2012, 01:00:18 AM
 #28

Being some time on this forum taught me one thing. Such amount optimism always ends in one way. Big selloff. Lets see if history will repeat itself.

So, you're basically saying that after price is done
going up, it'll go down, right ? Man, I wish I had
that kind of mad skillz.

You would be surprised how many speculators and investors don't know this obvious information.  They see an exponential price rise and their only conclusion is to jump on board quick as it's going even higher. 

Is $7+ a bubble?  Probably not, but it's the point where we saw a previous sell off all the way back to the mid $4 range.  I'm a bit surprised we're still sitting well over $6 however, as I thought we'd be back to the low $5 range by now after the hype cycle surrounding Greece died down.  Still, watching my bitcoin fortune grow by doing nothing is very pleasing.

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July 11, 2012, 01:45:18 AM
 #29

I predict a price around $10-$20 by end of the year. This is not because the price "broke through" $7 just now, but because I know of certain developments in bitcoinworld that support such a price (and the above price target does not include speculative froth, but simply a reasonable market price given the fundamentals).

Let's also remember that any price increase anywhere below $32, if a bubble, is less of a bubble than we had last year, for the economy is far stronger now than it was a year ago. In other words, if we shoot up to $25, it might be a bubble, but it's a far smaller bubble than we had prior. The fundamentals are far more supportive of such a price now than prior.



Can you please eleborate on those fundamentals and certain developments in bitcoinworld.
It would be good to know too

Nope Smiley

To make a high stable price bitcoin needs a tripod of DRUGS, PORN AND GAMBLING to stand on.
Porn needs some more attention, Drugs seems to be a run away success (SR) and Gambling is certainly taking off.

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July 11, 2012, 02:33:57 AM
 #30

Calling it a bubble is a bit premature.

I think a breakout above $7.22 is a big deal, if it happens; it means that for the first time since the crash, the peaks of market sentiment are getting higher. It means we'll have left the shadow of June 2011.

I think it's also worth not forgetting that there isn't an easy way to short anymore.  I expect that when shorting makes it's way back into the system the price will take a pretty big hit.
To me, this is the #1 risk factor of this being a bubble and not real growth. As with the highs of last year, there's no capacity for short positions backed by fiat; no matter how unrealistically high a person thinks $7.20 is as a price for 1BTC, they can't put their money where their mouth is unless they're already holding the asset in which they have no faith. Even a functional futures market would be enough to assuage some of my worries here, but alas.

icbit.se

Hey!  It's shorting.  Next excuse....

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July 11, 2012, 02:41:17 AM
 #31

I predict a price around $10-$20 by end of the year. This is not because the price "broke through" $7 just now, but because I know of certain developments in bitcoinworld that support such a price (and the above price target does not include speculative froth, but simply a reasonable market price given the fundamentals).

Let's also remember that any price increase anywhere below $32, if a bubble, is less of a bubble than we had last year, for the economy is far stronger now than it was a year ago. In other words, if we shoot up to $25, it might be a bubble, but it's a far smaller bubble than we had prior. The fundamentals are far more supportive of such a price now than prior.



Can you please eleborate on those fundamentals and certain developments in bitcoinworld.
It would be good to know too

Nope Smiley

To make a high stable price bitcoin needs a tripod of DRUGS, PORN AND GAMBLING to stand on.
Porn needs some more attention, Drugs seems to be a run away success (SR) and Gambling is certainly taking off.

You are right.  I think either one of these three would suffice.  It seems gambling is the main contender these days.  I offer to sell bitcoins on craigslist and throw in the texas holdem aspect.  Just started today we'll see what happens.   I personally have gotten 3 people into playing texas holdem on seals with clubs who really weren't into bitcoin but are really into poker.  Now they want to buy bitcoins. Smiley

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July 11, 2012, 02:49:55 AM
 #32

I predict a price around $10-$20 by end of the year. This is not because the price "broke through" $7 just now, but because I know of certain developments in bitcoinworld that support such a price (and the above price target does not include speculative froth, but simply a reasonable market price given the fundamentals).

Let's also remember that any price increase anywhere below $32, if a bubble, is less of a bubble than we had last year, for the economy is far stronger now than it was a year ago. In other words, if we shoot up to $25, it might be a bubble, but it's a far smaller bubble than we had prior. The fundamentals are far more supportive of such a price now than prior.



Can you please eleborate on those fundamentals and certain developments in bitcoinworld.
It would be good to know too

Nope Smiley

To make a high stable price bitcoin needs a tripod of DRUGS, PORN AND GAMBLING to stand on.
Porn needs some more attention, Drugs seems to be a run away success (SR) and Gambling is certainly taking off.

You are right.  I think either one of these three would suffice.  It seems gambling is the main contender these days.  I offer to sell bitcoins on craigslist and throw in the texas holdem aspect.  Just started today we'll see what happens.   I personally have gotten 3 people into playing texas holdem on seals with clubs who really weren't into bitcoin but are really into poker.  Now they want to buy bitcoins. Smiley

Interesting. Real life poker games with bitcoins.

"World Series of Poker....with bitcoins!"

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July 11, 2012, 04:01:00 AM
 #33

I predict a price around $10-$20 by end of the year. This is not because the price "broke through" $7 just now, but because I know of certain developments in bitcoinworld that support such a price (and the above price target does not include speculative froth, but simply a reasonable market price given the fundamentals).

Let's also remember that any price increase anywhere below $32, if a bubble, is less of a bubble than we had last year, for the economy is far stronger now than it was a year ago. In other words, if we shoot up to $25, it might be a bubble, but it's a far smaller bubble than we had prior. The fundamentals are far more supportive of such a price now than prior.



Can you please eleborate on those fundamentals and certain developments in bitcoinworld.
It would be good to know too

Nope Smiley

To make a high stable price bitcoin needs a tripod of DRUGS, PORN AND GAMBLING to stand on.
Porn needs some more attention, Drugs seems to be a run away success (SR) and Gambling is certainly taking off.

You are right.  I think either one of these three would suffice.  It seems gambling is the main contender these days.  I offer to sell bitcoins on craigslist and throw in the texas holdem aspect.  Just started today we'll see what happens.   I personally have gotten 3 people into playing texas holdem on seals with clubs who really weren't into bitcoin but are really into poker.  Now they want to buy bitcoins. Smiley

Interesting. Real life poker games with bitcoins.

"World Series of Poker....with bitcoins!"

Thats actually a good idea.  I might try to make it happen.  My friend plays with a bunch of guys every week. (poker that is)  She brought up bitcoin and they didn't have good things to say about it.  (mostly the same ignorant stuff you hear from people who know nothing about it). 
Working on it though

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July 11, 2012, 04:29:54 AM
 #34

I predict a price around $10-$20 by end of the year. This is not because the price "broke through" $7 just now, but because I know of certain developments in bitcoinworld that support such a price (and the above price target does not include speculative froth, but simply a reasonable market price given the fundamentals).

Let's also remember that any price increase anywhere below $32, if a bubble, is less of a bubble than we had last year, for the economy is far stronger now than it was a year ago. In other words, if we shoot up to $25, it might be a bubble, but it's a far smaller bubble than we had prior. The fundamentals are far more supportive of such a price now than prior.



Can you please eleborate on those fundamentals and certain developments in bitcoinworld.
It would be good to know too

Nope Smiley

To make a high stable price bitcoin needs a tripod of DRUGS, PORN AND GAMBLING to stand on.
Porn needs some more attention, Drugs seems to be a run away success (SR) and Gambling is certainly taking off.

You are right.  I think either one of these three would suffice.  It seems gambling is the main contender these days.  I offer to sell bitcoins on craigslist and throw in the texas holdem aspect.  Just started today we'll see what happens.   I personally have gotten 3 people into playing texas holdem on seals with clubs who really weren't into bitcoin but are really into poker.  Now they want to buy bitcoins. Smiley

Interesting. Real life poker games with bitcoins.

"World Series of Poker....with bitcoins!"

Thats actually a good idea.  I might try to make it happen.  My friend plays with a bunch of guys every week. (poker that is)  She brought up bitcoin and they didn't have good things to say about it.  (mostly the same ignorant stuff you hear from people who know nothing about it). 
Working on it though

Awesome let me know so I can join he he he

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           ²▀▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀▀`          
                   ²²²                 
███████████████████████████████████████

. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.        SMOOTHIE'S HEALTH AND FITNESS JOURNAL          History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
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July 11, 2012, 04:35:54 AM
 #35

I have gotten most of my circle into bitcoins solely for gambling. Gambling needs another push, but I have not seen any slide backs in adopters.

The porn market is just in its infancy right now, way to many at home amateurs (sorry girls) but it is trending towards higher quality models as of late.

Drugs..... I think Silk Road has this in done and done, nothing to see here.

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July 12, 2012, 03:57:42 AM
 #36

It isn't a bubble. I proved that last year in my analysis. If it had been one, we wouldn't be trading at 7, it would be near zero with the overall hashing capacity declining rapidly.

Now, this doesn't mean we can't have large price swings - just don't mistake volatility for a 'bubble', because you'd be using the wrong term. Exponential blow-off tops occur in different markets, and I'm sure we haven't seen the last of those here.

Overall, I expect bitcoin to advance and persist.

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
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July 12, 2012, 07:46:03 PM
 #37

So far, no classical bubble indicators. The volume didn't rise all that much, there's little hype, and the fundamental reasons for a rise might just be there.

That last point is hard to judge. But there is currently a need for both international transactions and an inflation-free asset to store value. Given its potential and its currently low market cap, Bitcoin might provide both.

So while I'm not shouting "RALLY RALLY UP TO 8," I also don't see reason to call 7 a bubble. Who can estimate Bitcoin value to such precision anyway?
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July 12, 2012, 10:49:55 PM
 #38

There's also the possibility that the rise is partially caused by the dollar inflating from the Federal Reserve's balance-sheet activities. M2 supply is up $43 billion from last week. Boggles my mind the numbers that get thrown around when dollar debt/expansion is concerned.

If you could graph BTC priced in dollars minus inflation - maybe its just a stable plateau after all. I leave that to the number crunchers here.

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July 12, 2012, 11:00:40 PM
 #39

There's also the possibility that the rise is partially caused by the dollar inflating from the Federal Reserve's balance-sheet activities. M2 supply is up $43 billion from last week. Boggles my mind the numbers that get thrown around when dollar debt/expansion is concerned.

If you could graph BTC priced in dollars minus inflation - maybe its just a stable plateau after all. I leave that to the number crunchers here.

Except DXY has been on the rise, so while supply might be expanding purcashing power is going up.  Nobody wants to take out debt and that's the only way to get access to that new money.

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July 12, 2012, 11:02:19 PM
 #40

It isn't a bubble. I proved that last year in my analysis. If it had been one, we wouldn't be trading at 7, it would be near zero with the overall hashing capacity declining rapidly.

Now, this doesn't mean we can't have large price swings - just don't mistake volatility for a 'bubble', because you'd be using the wrong term. Exponential blow-off tops occur in different markets, and I'm sure we haven't seen the last of those here.

Overall, I expect bitcoin to advance and persist.

Lol, you proved it was not a bubble? Interesting. I think you rather came to the conclusion that it was not (I think I read your thread the other month). IMHO it was a bubble indeed showing all typical signs of a bubble, then it burst, not as abruptly as a bubble would burst with no value in its underlying security but it still did. Have a read through something on the "Gartner hype cycle",
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle
you will discover, that what we have seen last June was a typical hype resulting in a correction of exaggerated expectations. Because there is intrinsic value in bitcoin the bubble burst didnt end its live, like with any fad, but only expressed those expectations and the decrease to some more realistic levels, matching yield of the technology in its current state.

@ OP: No bubble yet, but working on it
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