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Author Topic: Does it reminds you something?  (Read 5413 times)
spiderbrain
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January 17, 2015, 01:32:13 AM
 #21

Looks pretty damn similar to me.

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January 17, 2015, 01:51:44 AM
 #22

Looks pretty damn similar to me.

Look at this one. It corroborates my theory except the length of this bear compared to the former, it could be a month or two.

img courtesy of lowstrife from TV trollbox

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January 17, 2015, 01:58:30 AM
 #23

Relative volume on Bitfinex needs to take its growth into consideration - during the bubble its volume was pathetic. You really need to look at cumulative volume. Bitcoin Average compiles volume from exchanges with non-0% fees: https://bitcoinaverage.com/charts#USD-volumes-all

Certainly high volume and a bottom for now, but it's by no means the biggie.

Just looked at the link. It actually is the biggest volume spike in the short range that bitcoinaverage records (just over a year). Thanks for confirming OP's observation.
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January 17, 2015, 02:01:50 AM
 #24

I love how you guys show comparisons of a chart when the price was $2.00 vs now when the price is $200 dollars.

Forgetting that if bitcoin rises a hundred dollars now then that is a $100 dollars everyone gets for their bitcoin if they sold. Like that amount of money is going to just flow into bitcoin to buy your expensive, but practically useless bitcoins.

The price is so going to go down. Already volume is dropping and price is falling, not good signs at all.

You must remember the 2 dollar chart well Edward50. You were convincing people on here in 2011 to sell in expectation of 1 dollar bitcoins. The price then rose by a factor of 500.

You seem to have a knack for being an excellent contrarian indicator.
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January 17, 2015, 02:07:18 AM
 #25

Yeah, March or April might be a good month.
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January 17, 2015, 02:54:35 AM
 #26

Relative volume on Bitfinex needs to take its growth into consideration - during the bubble its volume was pathetic. You really need to look at cumulative volume. Bitcoin Average compiles volume from exchanges with non-0% fees: https://bitcoinaverage.com/charts#USD-volumes-all

Certainly high volume and a bottom for now, but it's by no means the biggie.

Just looked at the link. It actually is the biggest volume spike in the short range that bitcoinaverage records (just over a year). Thanks for confirming OP's observation.

It's the heaviest daily volume since the bubble, but one should remember that so too was 9 Sept 2011 at Gox, when price dipped down to 4.18.

I will say that I have bought coins here, but a cautious amount. Being impetuous doesn't pay in a downtrend like this.
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January 17, 2015, 05:59:57 AM
 #27

Someone still has to tell me why history should repeat itself now that price is 100X higher than what it was at the end of the 2011 bear market.



2010-2011 was a very different landscape for bitcoin.

Bitcoin was an obscure experiment very few people knew about and that needed just a little injection of fiat for it to be pump&dumped several orders of magnitude higher.
A large part of the supply was lost due to early miners not realising what these funny tokens could potentially become. So, supply (hence marketcap) was A LOT smaller than what most believed. How could this be any more bullish than that at the time?
That’s just one of the many reasons why bitcoin now is not what it was in 2010-2011.


The psychology was there. Anonymous money (or potentially anonymous) you could buy drugs with, and potentially more (whatever other gimmick you can think of). “When the world will catch up on this thing, it will be a new mania”. That’s what smart money was probably thinking.

Everything was in place for a potentially big bubble/pump&dump.
The real question was: how far can this go and for how long?


Today it looks like smart money and the invisible hand did a good job in trapping people.
Today bitcoin is a cult full of believers that rely on clumsy analogies like the early internet and they try to pump the bitcoin’s price because of that.
They think decentralization is the single most important thing ever and that bitcoin will save the world.
It’s not like they ever cared for decentralization or anything else in the first place, these are just rationalisations in order to get-rich-quick and justify poor decisions and a bad investment.
Either that, or pump an early investment that is not very risky for them but that it is far more risky for the greater fools that are supposed to buy in now and support the scheme.

The idea behind bitcoin’s protocol has potential, but bitcoin’s implementation or the idea that you need a stand-alone new currency for a decentralised ledger to work ("the potential of the blockchain!!!") is simply a bad one and it carries way too many problems for it to continue any further.
Of course bitcoin will not be taken over by titcoin or pandacoin, I’m not pumping no shitcoin here.  Simply  put, it is very likely that other projects will take what is useful in bitcoin’s underlying technology and discard all the rest (which is a lot of it).




Smart money understands this cultish environment, and in the early days, that’s what they were probably thinking. “If this starts to become a cult, a new paradigm, and random dudes who barely know what an investment is or know how to manage risk start to take for granted that this “will go to the moon”, that’s when we are supposed to bail and GTFO”.

Yes, gents, that’s the anatomy and psychology of a bubble/pump&dump.
And yes, it ain't pretty.
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January 17, 2015, 08:07:58 AM
 #28

I partly agree with you, especially with the idea that history doesn't repeat itself (and if it does, it doesn't in the same way).  I agree with you also that the situation now has nothing to do with 2011, for exactly the reasons you give.

However, where I don't agree with you is that cryptocurrencies were just a new mania.  In fact, there are not many ways beside a blockchain technology to have private computer money that is independent of a state or a private company, and that you can deal with on your own.

It seems like a natural evolution: from barter to gold to fiat to cryptocurrencies.  These are, however, social revolutions, not just technological inventions.  Cryptocurrencies are not just technological inventions like the internet or video tapes: they support a social change.

In a globalised economy, it is pretty clear that national state-backed currencies are going to be outdated.  We already had a private world currency, which was gold.  However, states, wanting to control this, and wanting to manipulate this powerful economic tool, did everything which was in their power to undo the universal and private money that was gold.  And yes, gold had many *practical* problems, like theft, the irreversibility of a gold transaction and so on.   The practical advantage of (initially gold-backed) government fiat money made that there was a social revolution in the payments.  The states used this to scam people and print more fiat than they could back up, and ended up using their government power to make gold illegal as an exchange medium (simply to cover their scam).  As long as economies were largely domestic, national fiat currencies were doing OK, and the state was the master of the game.
The military hegemony of the USA after WWII made that it could impose its fiat money as a kind of world currency for a good part of a century.
However, this is now put into question with other economic blocks competing.  The US dollar is still a world-recognized currency and this will not disappear soon.  The demise of the dollar is not for tomorrow.

However, the banking crisis of 2008, the problem with the Japanese, and the future problems that monetary state intervention is programming, will wear out the trust that people put in state backed fiat - especially when the USA will be just an economic power like others, and not have a world hegonomy anymore.  The Euro, which was initially planned to be a non-national and hence much less scammed fiat currency, is having problems exactly because of this with some member states who cannot get rid of the habit of scamming with money.  Greece being the prototype example (but that's small beer), but France not playing according to the rules either.  The Euro will become a scammed piece of fiat like any other if the southern-Europe states have it their way.  Which is a pity, because the Euro was a non-national fiat currency as was never seen anywhere.  Giving up national currencies and national fiat hence HAS already happened in Europe.  The next step to free private money isn't so far away as one might think.

Gold has become impractical for personal global trade.  If states are not to be trusted, and private companies (like banks) are not to be trusted, then it will be time to have the next social change in the means of exchange.  From barter to gold to fiat, the next step can hardly be anything else than a cryptocurrency.  Will the historical cryptocurrency, being bitcoin, have the advantage of being the first ?

It will not happen overnight, that is for sure.  It will take at least decades.

But there aren't many alternatives besides cryptocurrencies if one wants to have a private company and state free global means of exchange.  That's the point.  I have a hard time imagining that tomorrow, *other* technologies besides a block-chain technology will emerge on which to base a company-free and state free currency.  This is why this is not just a hype.  Or we will forget for the next century or so any kind of money besides state-based fiat, or it will be a cryptocurrency.

Also, things used as money, need a build-up of trust.  It must be around for a long time before it can be used that way seriously.  It is why I think that bitcoin is still a major player even though being the first, it has many technological non-idealities.  Of all cryptocurrencies, bitcoin being the first, will have still the most trust.  Which will not stop other cryptocurrencies from being around and which may have better usage in specific domains.  But they will be "backed" by bitcoin I would think, for its historical prevalence.

Someone still has to tell me why history should repeat itself now that price is 100X higher than what it was at the end of the 2011 bear market.



2010-2011 was a very different landscape for bitcoin.

Bitcoin was an obscure experiment very few people knew about and that needed just a little injection of fiat for it to be pump&dumped several orders of magnitude higher.
A large part of the supply was lost due to early miners not realising what these funny tokens could potentially become. So, supply (hence marketcap) was A LOT smaller than what most believed. How could this be any more bullish than that at the time?
That’s just one of the many reasons why bitcoin now is not what it was in 2010-2011.


The psychology was there. Anonymous money (or potentially anonymous) you could buy drugs with, and potentially more (whatever other gimmick you can think of). “When the world will catch up on this thing, it will be a new mania”. That’s what smart money was probably thinking.

Everything was in place for a potentially big bubble/pump&dump.
The real question was: how far can this go and for how long?


Today it looks like smart money and the invisible hand did a good job in trapping people.
Today bitcoin is a cult full of believers that rely on clumsy analogies like the early internet and they try to pump the bitcoin’s price because of that.
They think decentralization is the single most important thing ever and that bitcoin will save the world.
It’s not like they ever cared for decentralization or anything else in the first place, these are just rationalisations in order to get-rich-quick and justify poor decisions and a bad investment.
Either that, or pump an early investment that is not very risky for them but that it is far more risky for the greater fools that are supposed to buy in now and support the scheme.

The idea behind bitcoin’s protocol has potential, but bitcoin’s implementation or the idea that you need a stand-alone new currency for a decentralised ledger to work is simply a bad one and it carries way too many problems for it to continue any further.
Of course bitcoin will not be taken over by titcoin or pandacoin, I’m not pumping no shitcoin here.  Simply  put, it is very likely that other projects will take what is useful in bitcoin’s underlying technology and discard all the rest (which is a lot of it).




Smart money understands this cultish environment, and in the early days, that’s what they were probably thinking. “If this starts to become a cult, a new paradigm, and random dudes who barely know what an investment is or know how to manage risk start to take for granted that this “will go to the moon”, that’s when we are supposed to bail and GTFO”.

Yes, gents, that’s the anatomy and psychology of a bubble/pump&dump.
And yes, it ain't pretty.
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January 17, 2015, 09:45:30 AM
 #29

Thanks for these quality posts - rekindles my interest back into the Speculation section.

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January 17, 2015, 10:16:00 AM
 #30

The OP's count is about a month ahead of my most probable count.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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January 17, 2015, 10:40:25 AM
 #31

Someone still has to tell me why history should repeat itself now that price is 100X higher than what it was at the end of the 2011 bear market.

Because Bitcoin is the perfect exploit of the squirrel in man. Its utility beyond that is secondary. I mean, look at how gold is hoarded. Underground vaults stacked with bars, what utility do they possibly hold? Anyway, if history repeats it will be 35X.  Tongue
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January 17, 2015, 11:23:57 AM
 #32

Someone still has to tell me why history should repeat itself now that price is 100X higher than what it was at the end of the 2011 bear market.

Because Bitcoin is the perfect exploit of the squirrel in man. Its utility beyond that is secondary. I mean, look at how gold is hoarded. Underground vaults stacked with bars, what utility do they possibly hold? Anyway, if history repeats it will be 35X.  Tongue

Bitcoin has no utility if its price goes to 0.  It will just be another random byte of data floating in cyberspace.

Conversely, even if gold goes to 0, it has industrial uses in electrical components and heat conduction.  Same with silver.    So not sure where that comparison stems.
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January 17, 2015, 12:16:22 PM
 #33

Someone still has to tell me why history should repeat itself now that price is 100X higher than what it was at the end of the 2011 bear market.

Because Bitcoin is the perfect exploit of the squirrel in man. Its utility beyond that is secondary. I mean, look at how gold is hoarded. Underground vaults stacked with bars, what utility do they possibly hold? Anyway, if history repeats it will be 35X.  Tongue

Bitcoin has no utility if its price goes to 0.  It will just be another random byte of data floating in cyberspace.

Conversely, even if gold goes to 0, it has industrial uses in electrical components and heat conduction.  Same with silver.    So not sure where that comparison stems.

Bitcoin is limited supply and has superior sound money properties to the metals.
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January 17, 2015, 12:29:25 PM
 #34

...
Bitcoin is limited supply and has superior sound money properties to the metals.

>sound money
>down 75%

Can't get much sounder than that Undecided
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January 17, 2015, 12:49:59 PM
 #35

Someone still has to tell me why history should repeat itself now that price is 100X higher than what it was at the end of the 2011 bear market.

Because Bitcoin is the perfect exploit of the squirrel in man. Its utility beyond that is secondary. I mean, look at how gold is hoarded. Underground vaults stacked with bars, what utility do they possibly hold? Anyway, if history repeats it will be 35X.  Tongue

Bitcoin has no utility if its price goes to 0.  It will just be another random byte of data floating in cyberspace.

Conversely, even if gold goes to 0, it has industrial uses in electrical components and heat conduction.  Same with silver.    So not sure where that comparison stems.

Gold used to paint a subject under electron microscopy has utility, gold stored in vaults serves what purpose exactly? What are we doing with that stuff? Why don't we melt down all the bullion and use it for jewellery, as that would surely be more useful to us? Instead we hoard it, actually in opposition to utilization.

Bitcoin doesn't lack utility when its 0, it lacks utility right now. My point is, it simply doesn't matter.

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January 17, 2015, 03:13:34 PM
 #36

I was wondering if I was the only person seeing this, haha. But I guess the people freaking out the most weren't in any of the previous bubble pops to know what it feels like in this exact moment.



You can't get to me man, my buy in is ~$10.  Best troll your meme out elsewhere.

the most expensive coins i had previously bought were around 6usd
it will take a lot more to panic me than -200 lol

i cashed out a pile  around the last ATH when people were buying lamborghinis and shit but
i kept a lot too because i believe in the technology and its usefulness
i am currently buying up  more because i think these coins are way undervalued at the moment
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January 18, 2015, 03:21:32 AM
 #37

Someone still has to tell me why history should repeat itself now that price is 100X higher than what it was at the end of the 2011 bear market.

Because Bitcoin is the perfect exploit of the squirrel in man. Its utility beyond that is secondary. I mean, look at how gold is hoarded. Underground vaults stacked with bars, what utility do they possibly hold? Anyway, if history repeats it will be 35X.  Tongue

Bitcoin has no utility if its price goes to 0.  It will just be another random byte of data floating in cyberspace.

Conversely, even if gold goes to 0, it has industrial uses in electrical components and heat conduction.  Same with silver.    So not sure where that comparison stems.

A few thousands lines of code in Facebook is worth billions. Its also just another "random byte of data floating in cyberspace" right?

Idiot like you should really stop talking about " bytes and bits" and start learning about value vs price.

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January 18, 2015, 03:50:36 AM
 #38

Someone still has to tell me why history should repeat itself now that price is 100X higher than what it was at the end of the 2011 bear market.

Because Bitcoin is the perfect exploit of the squirrel in man. Its utility beyond that is secondary. I mean, look at how gold is hoarded. Underground vaults stacked with bars, what utility do they possibly hold? Anyway, if history repeats it will be 35X.  Tongue

Bitcoin has no utility if its price goes to 0.  It will just be another random byte of data floating in cyberspace.

Conversely, even if gold goes to 0, it has industrial uses in electrical components and heat conduction.  Same with silver.    So not sure where that comparison stems.

A few thousands lines of code in Facebook is worth billions. Its also just another "random byte of data floating in cyberspace" right?

Idiot like you should really stop talking about " bytes and bits" and start learning about value vs price.



Facebook is company with revenues.  Before you start calling people idiot look in the mirror


     
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January 23, 2015, 11:33:06 PM
 #39

This is highly interesting! Usually I'm very prudent when it comes to seeing patterns or being prudent. But this one has a striking resemblance, and I'm at least sure that a lot of people think the same way and thus act similarly - thus creating the rise in the first place!

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January 23, 2015, 11:44:45 PM
 #40

It's an uncanny resemblance, I gotta admit that! But keep in mind that humans are very good at seeing patterns - it's actually one of the things that makes us distinct. But we also tend to see patterns where there are none at times Smiley

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