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Author Topic: The Mt. Gox Willy Bot Effect Today  (Read 1885 times)
colinistheman
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January 16, 2015, 05:19:21 PM
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Do you think the effect of Mark Karpeles' "Willy" buying bot is the main reason for the price correction we've been seeing over the past year?

Sometimes I hear people's guess that the price decline is because "all the miners are selling their mined bitcoins" which is causing the price to drop. But I don't think that's the significant cause of the past year's price decline. Miners have always been able to sell their coins to recoup their costs as needed. This was not a new element.

The new elements we had were two things: A.) China buying into BTC majorly and B.) this Willy Bot buying it up and artificially inflating the value per BTC.

Remember, there was only 1 major exchange at the time, Mt Gox, and Mark Karpeles (using the Willy bot) basically artificially controlled the price of Bitcoin. (Thank god there are many more exchanges now. Mt Gox goes to show what a monopoly on exhanges can do)

It would be very useful information if someone knew: 1.) how many BTC the Willy Bot bought, 2.) how much was bought by China, and 3.) how much was bought by other countries combined. Then we could make a % pie chart to see the effect of each category.

If we had that information, we could see just how much of a percentage the Willy bot might have had on the market value of Bitcoin versus the other two reasons (China, and other countries' normal purchasing).

I personally suspect Willy Bot was the major cause, and we are STILL feeling the aftereffects. But would love to be wrong because it makes me mad to think Mark not only stole people's money but also was the major reason for the market devaluation over the past year.

So in a way, Mark had a negative effect on almost every BTC buyer even if they didn't have coins on Gox which were lost, because people have been buying into an artificially inflated bitcoin price which is still correcting itself.

Does anyone have any of the above specifics/statistics (the ones marked in color), especially of what the Willy Bot did?
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January 16, 2015, 05:38:08 PM
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I wasen't here or anything close to Bitcoin community before
but what makes you guys think that what happened to Mt gox is made up and they never got hacked  for real ? Shocked

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January 16, 2015, 05:47:06 PM
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I think this is what you're looking for: http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/may/29/bitcoin-bots-bought-millions-in-the-last-days-of-mt-gox

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21600736-chinese-regulators-make-life-hard-crypto-currencies-dream-dispelled

If half of all Bitcoin bought during that period were purchased by China then the balance were from the rest of the world.

Edit: Here's one more http://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/USCC%20Economic%20Issue%20Brief%20-%20Bitcoin%20-%2005%2012%2014.pdf

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January 16, 2015, 05:47:59 PM
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I wasen't here or anything close to Bitcoin community before
but what makes you guys think that what happened to Mt gox is made up and they never got hacked  for real ? Shocked

Probably this: http://www.coindesk.com/missing-mt-gox-bitcoins-inside-job-japanese-police/

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January 16, 2015, 05:53:29 PM
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bg002h
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January 16, 2015, 05:55:58 PM
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Market manipulation may be a problem for a long time. There are laws and regulations about the topic, but enforcing them may be quite the tricky issue.

Hardfork aren't that hard.
1GCDzqmX2Cf513E8NeThNHxiYEivU1Chhe
colinistheman
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January 16, 2015, 06:17:17 PM
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Yes, that's it. Thanks!

650,000 btc!

Doesn't that sheer quantity of manipulated BTC point to the most obvious cause for the past 12 months of price decline (aka correction)?


http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21600736-chinese-regulators-make-life-hard-crypto-currencies-dream-dispelled

If half of all Bitcoin bought during that period were purchased by China then the balance were from the rest of the world.
Yes, except we don't know how many China actually bought yet. From that article we know they traded in the range of 100,000 btc per day, but trading is much different from outright purchases for the first time.

Still need an accurate China purchase total for the time period. That may be an unrealistic request.

I think that even without the China buying figures, the 650,000 btc figure above from Willy is enough of a chunk of bitcoin to be the major cause.
colinistheman
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January 16, 2015, 06:18:08 PM
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Lmao. This got me laughing pretty good. This would make a great movie cover or something.
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January 16, 2015, 06:20:42 PM
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Mastermind:


funkenstein
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January 16, 2015, 06:21:45 PM
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Yes, that's it. Thanks!

650,000 btc!

Doesn't that sheer quantity of manipulated BTC point to the most obvious cause for the past 12 months of price decline (aka correction)?


http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21600736-chinese-regulators-make-life-hard-crypto-currencies-dream-dispelled

If half of all Bitcoin bought during that period were purchased by China then the balance were from the rest of the world.
Yes, except we don't know how many China actually bought yet. From that article we know they traded in the range of 100,000 btc per day, but trading is much different from outright purchases for the first time.

Still need an accurate China purchase total for the time period. That may be an unrealistic request.

I think that even without the China buying figures, the 650,000 btc figure above from Willy is enough of a chunk of bitcoin to be the major cause.

Are you looking for the total coins bought by people who speak Chinese?  Maybe you are talking about the volume on exchanges operated in China (with customers all over the world)?  Maybe you are talking about the CNY volume?  

"Give me control over a coin's checkpoints and I care not who mines its blocks."
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colinistheman
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January 16, 2015, 06:24:03 PM
 #11



RMB is Renminbi (China's currency)

So why is the percentage of RMB trades going up steadily as the price is going down? That again makes me think it's Willy bot correction.

The percentage of RMB trades would be going down most likely if China was exiting the market, not up.


source:
colinistheman
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January 16, 2015, 06:28:23 PM
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Are you looking for the total coins bought by people who speak Chinese?
Maybe you are talking about the volume on exchanges operated in China (with customers all over the world)?
No and No

Maybe you are talking about the CNY volume?  
Yes

Because the country of China is where they were banned. They didn't ban Chinese speaking people in USA from buying bitcoin for example, so that would be irrelevant.
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January 16, 2015, 07:02:08 PM
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Are you looking for the total coins bought by people who speak Chinese?
Maybe you are talking about the volume on exchanges operated in China (with customers all over the world)?
No and No

Maybe you are talking about the CNY volume?  
Yes

Because the country of China is where they were banned. They didn't ban Chinese speaking people in USA from buying bitcoin for example, so that would be irrelevant.

China will do what Russia already did. They will ban the websites and they will ban the exchangers accounts if they are outside of China. No chinesse will be able to send money to these exchanegrs.
Simple and efficient.

NO China, no Bitcoin
colinistheman
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January 16, 2015, 07:30:27 PM
 #14

China will do what Russia already did. They will ban the websites and they will ban the exchangers accounts if they are outside of China. No chinesse will be able to send money to these exchanegrs.
Simple and efficient.

NO China, no Bitcoin

Yes this is all true, but I'm not tracking with how this is relevant to this thread.
darkota
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January 16, 2015, 07:39:31 PM
 #15

It was China's "ban" that caused the stopping of buying for Bitcoin from the Chinese, and what made them buy in the first place was the constant uproar in price from the willy bot's buying. I'd say the "Willy" bot contributed to most of the run up, maybe 70%-80%, and the rest was everything else(People buying from the increasing Bitcoin price, Hype, china etc)

The only way Bitcoin could ever reach $1000+ again without the help of a bot artificially inflating the price, is if it becomes widely adopted, meaning millions of people are using it. As of right now, less than 1million people on this earth is using Bitcoin. That's very very small.

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colinistheman
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January 16, 2015, 07:46:04 PM
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It was China's "ban" that caused the stopping of buying for Bitcoin from the Chinese, and what made them buy in the first place was the constant uproar in price from the willy bot's buying. I'd say the "Willy" bot contributed to most of the run up, maybe 70%-80%, and the rest was everything else(People buying from the increasing Bitcoin price, Hype, china etc)

The only way Bitcoin could ever reach $1000+ again without the help of a bot artificially inflating the price, is if it becomes widely adopted, meaning millions of people are using it. As of right now, less than 1million people on this earth is using Bitcoin. That's very very small.


This is what I think also! And you said it well.

I don't think many people see this... I am not sure why though. They're off blaming miners for selling off. Not the reason imo.
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January 16, 2015, 07:48:21 PM
 #17

Market manipulation may be a problem for a long time.

no ... because bitcoin network have fees.
mayax
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January 16, 2015, 07:50:32 PM
 #18

It was China's "ban" that caused the stopping of buying for Bitcoin from the Chinese, and what made them buy in the first place was the constant uproar in price from the willy bot's buying. I'd say the "Willy" bot contributed to most of the run up, maybe 70%-80%, and the rest was everything else(People buying from the increasing Bitcoin price, Hype, china etc)

The only way Bitcoin could ever reach $1000+ again without the help of a bot artificially inflating the price, is if it becomes widely adopted, meaning millions of people are using it. As of right now, less than 1million people on this earth is using Bitcoin. That's very very small.

why would they use Bitcoin? Why would they trust fishy exchangers without address, identity, phone number? how can you trust your money in an anonymous system which is mainly used for black market and speculators?

yes, 500,000-1 MIL real Bitcoin users but the PR(propaganda) makes the people to think that there are millions over millions. Smiley
colinistheman
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January 16, 2015, 07:56:41 PM
 #19

It was China's "ban" that caused the stopping of buying for Bitcoin from the Chinese, and what made them buy in the first place was the constant uproar in price from the willy bot's buying. I'd say the "Willy" bot contributed to most of the run up, maybe 70%-80%, and the rest was everything else(People buying from the increasing Bitcoin price, Hype, china etc)

The only way Bitcoin could ever reach $1000+ again without the help of a bot artificially inflating the price, is if it becomes widely adopted, meaning millions of people are using it. As of right now, less than 1million people on this earth is using Bitcoin. That's very very small.

why would they use Bitcoin?

Investment purposes. Same as anywhere else right now
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January 16, 2015, 08:00:14 PM
 #20

Yes, except we don't know how many China actually bought yet. From that article we know they traded in the range of 100,000 btc per day, but trading is much different from outright purchases for the first time.
Don't forget arbitrage volume. MtGox by driving the price up must have created massive arbitrage opportunities so a lot of the volume on other exchanges could be abitrageurs taking advantage of the price lag to buy coins cheaper and either send them to MtGox to sell them there (a very bad idea in hindsight) or holding them to sell them back on the same exchange later after the price adjusted to close the gap with MtGox.
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