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Author Topic: All the people waiting for the next halving: Please explain  (Read 1603 times)
Miz4r
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January 16, 2015, 03:31:10 PM
 #21

Well Blockhalving is essentially going to decrease the amount of coins dumped which are generated due to mining.
Now that the price is down and a lot of miners have given up. Do we know if 3600 coins are still generated everyday ?

If the hashrate is going up more than 3600 coins are created per day, I think during the exponential rising phase of the hashrate about 4000 coins were mined each day. Currently we are at about 3600/day since the hashrate is barely increasing anymore and it could even go down if the price stays this low.

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wilth1
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January 16, 2015, 04:16:58 PM
 #22

No it is not. Mining costs per coin are in the range of 80-120$ (without the garbage overpriced miners without ROI).

Cost of production at current difficulty (43.9B) without including capital investment (all hardware, space, cabling, etc.), the most efficient hardware available and .08/kWh electricity is in the range you describe.

But, if you're a manufacturer completely funding all of your R&D and infrastructure with retail markup hardware sales you're just barely getting there, and any new buildouts will have to be fully financed. The real cost for them currently is probably around twice your estimated range.

Keep in mind that retail markup hardware sales are disappearing at the current exchange rate Smiley
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January 16, 2015, 06:42:22 PM
 #23

i dont think the halvening is going to effect directly on the price although it will have some effect since the "supply" or new coin created every day will decrease while "demand" can be the same

also miners will give up mining since it is not gonna be profitable anymore, although i am not sure how that can effect the whole transactions and price

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January 16, 2015, 07:37:22 PM
 #24

also miners will give up mining since it is not gonna be profitable anymore, although i am not sure how that can effect the whole transactions and price

The entire system has been designed in a way that mining will still happen.  The margin gets more narrow as the price goes down, but regardless of how many machines are mining, the difficulty will adjust so that 1800 are created every day after the next halving, instead of 3600 every day today.

The new supply on the market will be cut in half daily.  If demand remains constant (hardly guaranteed), the price only has one direction to go -> up.
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January 17, 2015, 08:16:17 PM
 #25

Well Blockhalving is essentially going to decrease the amount of coins dumped which are generated due to mining.
Now that the price is down and a lot of miners have given up. Do we know if 3600 coins are still generated everyday ?

If the hashrate is going up more than 3600 coins are created per day, I think during the exponential rising phase of the hashrate about 4000 coins were mined each day. Currently we are at about 3600/day since the hashrate is barely increasing anymore and it could even go down if the price stays this low.
The hashrate is actually decreasing and the next difficulty is expected to drop when it readjusts next.

The overall supply of bitcoin being sold by miners is going to decline when the block subsidy halves next. This will cause less selling pressure on the markets which will likely result in higher prices

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January 18, 2015, 12:30:09 PM
 #26

What exactly is the difference between a decreasing price (50%) vs. the halving of mined coins?

  • 25 BTC @ $200 is $5000/p. block
  • 12.5 BTC at $400 (not long ago) also equals $5000/p. block

IMO, we already had our halving. So if the argument is true, that the halving leads to a new bubble (same demand, fewer coins) at least prices should be constant at this level ~$200. Otherwise I might come to the conclusion, that halvings might have a long-time effect not necessarily resulting in a related price surge.

What do you guys think?

Market doesn't wait for the halving. Market moves in anticipation of the halving.
Since the halving is public information and markets are supposed to be efficient, it may have been priced in anyway.
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