Cryptocoins-Dice.com | BTC XRP XMR XMG DOGE | Play Invest Leverage Faucet

[smooth]

I made a basic graph to provide a better explanation.

Please post the actual logs (and not a "basic graph") that allow this to be audited and inspected for credibility.

Yes it is possible that an investor can increase his leverage immediately before a big player loss and then decrease it immediately after, thereby capturing a disproportionately large portion of the win, but if this happens frequently it becomes not credible it is merely lucky timing.

[Bobbax]

Hi smooth,

you're asking to me for posting private details about a player. Even in that circumstance, I'll not break my privacy politic.

but if this happens frequently it becomes not credible it is merely lucky timing

It's still possible to switch leverage and play that way. However since a recent patch the impact is lower. That's because the max profit rely now to the initial bankroll instead of bankroll with leverage.

Also, what's your guarantee that I'll not send you faked logs ? Nothing. And I'll be asked for more and more stuff. This is endless.
By the way, even the last logs I sent wasn't even monitored and compared with the site's bets, there is a 1M bet in it, nobody checked.

The site is providing tools that I keep updating, but at this state, there is no chart showing the bankroll with leverage second after second and no tool that pointing players who playing back coins from own investment, also no alerts when you starting to lost/win high on investment.

My bad is some peoples lost money from their invest on that run.

[smooth]

Hi smooth,

you're asking to me for posting private details about a player. Even in that circumstance, I'll not break my privacy politic.

No I'm not, I'm asking for details about when leverage was changed and by what amount, not by whom.

Without this information it is quite impossible for investors to ever audit the calculation of their return. You've turned the site, for investors, into an opaque web casino, with in effect no auditable, verifiable or provable outcomes.

Also, what's your guarantee that I'll not send you faked logs ? Nothing.

Correct, but it is more and more work for a dishonest site to continually release fake but credible, logs, perhaps to the point of impracticality. Whereas for an honest site, releasing credible logs is incredibly easy, because they are the actual logs. See where I'm going with this?

And I'll be asked for more and more stuff. This is endless.

No, you are only being asked for enough information so that investors can view and audit how their returns were calculated, as opposed to it being a complete black box, which is currently the case. You are not being asked for "more and more stuff"

By the way, even the last logs I sent wasn't even monitored and compared with the site's bets, there is a 1M bet in it, nobody checked.

Please explain. You sent fake logs? Or am I misunderstanding something?

Whether anyone checks or not isn't really the point. People can check and that keeps sites honest because sooner or later someone will check and a dishonest site will get caught.

I'm not accusing you of being a dishonest site. I'm asking for information that lets people check on your honesty, if they chose to do so, rather than taking your word for it.

[opennux]

I would be thoroughly surprised if Bobbax comes around and actually provides information.

It's classic stall-technique. So far all we have seen is question dodging.

[wpalczynski]

Hi smooth,

you're asking to me for posting private details about a player. Even in that circumstance, I'll not break my privacy politic.

No one is asking for a users name.  Your last explanation to my questions used a fake scenario to try and explain something.  Instead of using a fake or made up example of how Me and another Investor lost 2 million doge which was not reflected in your sites data how about you provide us with mathematical proof of that very example where 2 million disappeared.  I already told you to feel free to release my data from your site and for the player which you say won you can call them player X and not use their name.  That way you are not violating anyone's privacy.  Hiding behind this excuse will not help.  Its trivial to sanitize any data you need to release in order to prove your point, that way no ones privacy is violated.

[David Latapie]

I'd like to share some thoughts

Say the bankroll is 10,000 XMR. I place 1,000 XMR, I have 10% of bankroll so if someone loses 50 XMR, I'm eligible to 5 XMR.

Now I leverage at 4:1 and the average leverage is 30:1. The bankrage is now 300,000 XMR and my own contribution is 4,000 XMR, which is 1,33%. So, if some wins 50 XMR, I only get 2,3%.

Conclusion: leverage does impact your APR. If you leverage less than the average, you'll get less interest (and less risk of losing). I tended to consider that casino offers a 50% APR, but leverage makes is harder to get this, since investors make it riskier. To stick with a 50% APR, you must match the average leverage. If you are surrounded by risk-takers (like it is the case for XMR), you end up with something not much less risky than trading.

Do I have something wrong here?

[leancuisine]

The Bitcoin hotwallet seems to be empty, keeps showing that error when I try to withdraw. Could you give a date when it will be refilled?

[smooth]

I'd like to share some thoughts

Say the bankroll is 10,000 XMR. I place 1,000 XMR, I have 10% of bankroll so if someone loses 50 XMR, I'm eligible to 5 XMR.

Now I leverage at 4:1 and the average leverage is 30:1. The bankrage is now 300,000 XMR and my own contribution is 4,000 XMR, which is 1,33%. So, if some wins 50 XMR, I only get 2,3%.

Conclusion: leverage does impact your APR. If you leverage less than the average, you'll get less interest (and less risk of losing). I tended to consider that casino offers a 50% APR, but leverage makes is harder to get this, since investors make it riskier. To stick with a 50% APR, you must match the average leverage. If you are surrounded by risk-takers (like it is the case for XMR), you end up with something not much less risky than trading.

Do I have something wrong here?

You are only somewhat correct. Your risk in the current system is determined by your leverage relative to average leverage. If everyone is levering high and so do you, you don't have much risk and your return is about the same as if the leverage feature didn't exist at all. The risk creeps in if you have your leverage set high and then other investors suddenly reduce there. You are then subject to being quickly wiped out.

[Bobbax]

The Bitcoin hotwallet seems to be empty, keeps showing that error when I try to withdraw. Could you give a date when it will be refilled?

BTC hotwallet was lower than your cashout request, it has been refilled this morning. I see you did your cashout !



Due to the circumstances, I'll create a system to provide all main logs and data from the site.
I'm aware and realized that's mandatory to build such system.
My apologies that wasn't done before.

That project is now in my main priorities.
However, that'll require time to complete it.

So, what'll happen next and what are the plans on the short term ?

CCD data export
Provide daily or weekly files with all the logs (invest, bets, ...).
All the private data, like the username, will be hidden/hashed.
You'll able to leak all the data and numbers from that exports.


Increasing Staff responsibilities
I'm recruiting more peoples to join the CCD staff.
At the moment the staff (mostly moderators) have only few power and tools.
I'll grant to some peoples the ability to get more details about user's accounts in order to provide a better support.


Max Profit and Leverage
On previous versions the max. profit was 5% of the bankroll with leverage (bankrage). That was causing the bank to be too much volatile.
I switched the max. profit on the initial bankroll since the last version. But that's causing the max. profit to be too low for a lot of players who are willing to bet high.
I'm working on that case and will keep you updated with my solutions.


High rollers
The site will register high rolls and show them into a new board.


Escrow system
To prevent the players to be scammed when they're trading coins on the chat, the site will act as an escrow.
When 2 players want to trade some coins, they both send the coins to 'the site'. If that's legit (correct amount, received both), the site will proceed to the exchange, else he send back the coins.
That's going to be a free and instant service.


No more new coins a the moment
Just to make clear that I'm not about to add new coins at the moment.
I'm receiving a lots of requests for new coins, and a lots have potential and must be considered.
However I believe that adding new coins at this state will be not healthy for the site.

[smooth]

Excellent update Bobbax!

[David Latapie]

You are only somewhat correct. Your risk in the current system is determined by your leverage relative to average leverage. If everyone is levering high and so do you, you don't have much risk and your return is about the same as if the leverage feature didn't exist at all. The risk creeps in if you have your leverage set high and then other investors suddenly reduce there. You are then subject to being quickly wiped out.

Thanks.

On the other hand, if I invest more than others, but leverage less than them, I still get a decent return if the player lorse and if he wins, I end up owning a larger percentage of the bankroll (and if the investors suddenly reduce their leverage, the consequences are les important for me). The downsides (out of a greater exposure because of a greater percentage of the bank) is that I have more to lose in case of the site getting hacked or "hacked" (as you brilliantly wrote it some time ago).

Update: excellent news, bobbax! yesterday when I phoned, I forgot to tell you of my proposal for max profit so here it is. Like to "dump hashed log" proposal that I see you are implementing, this solution is simple to:

1. Go back to previous system. Bankrage * X = max profit
2. Change the multiplier. Two options
   2.1 Change X as you see fit.
      Pros: simpler
      Cons: maybe for mathematical reasons (Kelly criterion?) this X should not be changed - this is above my payrate
   2.2. Add a second multiplier, Y.
      Pros: in case there is a reason for X being X, you can safely change another variable - this will also permit a finer control of the max profit
      Cons: you end up with to multipliers (X and Y), which is inelegant if you have no reason to have the value of X being fixed

[Bobbax]

You are only somewhat correct. Your risk in the current system is determined by your leverage relative to average leverage. If everyone is levering high and so do you, you don't have much risk and your return is about the same as if the leverage feature didn't exist at all. The risk creeps in if you have your leverage set high and then other investors suddenly reduce there. You are then subject to being quickly wiped out.

Thanks.

On the other hand, if I invest more than others, but leverage less than them, I still get a decent return if the player lorse and if he wins, I end up owning a larger percentage of the bankroll (and if the investors suddenly reduce their leverage, the consequences are les important for me). The downsides (out of a greater exposure because of a greater percentage of the bank) is that I have more to lose in case of the site getting hacked or "hacked" (as you brilliantly wrote it some time ago).

Update: excellent news, bobbax! yesterday when I phoned, I forgot to tell you of my proposal for max profit so here it is. Like to "dump hashed log" proposal that I see you are implementing, this solution is simple to:

1. Go back to previous system. Bankrage * X = max profit
2. Change the multiplier. Two options
   2.1 Change X as you see fit.
      Pros: simpler
      Cons: maybe for mathematical reasons (Kelly criterion?) this X should not be changed - this is above my payrate
   2.2. Add a second multiplier, Y.
      Pros: in case there is a reason for X being X, you can safely change another variable - this will also permit a finer control of the max profit
      Cons: you end up with to multipliers (X and Y), which is inelegant if you have no reason to have the value of X being fixed

Hey David,

I have multiple solutions, I'm still working to find which is the best (I personally like the (A) atm).
Note that the following numbers aren't definitive.

An important precision about the leverage: The leverage isn't only a factor of risks, it also allow investors to place less money on the site. You maybe don't want me to manage your 100 btc, but you'll be agree to send 10 with a leverage of 10:1 and keep 90 btc offsite.

A) Decreasing the max. profit multiplier
Your (1) is indeed the one that was used to get the max. profit (Bankrage * 0.005, 0.5%).
One solution could be to reduce that value to 0.05%, with a low limit depending of the initial bankroll.
The low limit would be the initial bankroll * 0.5%, so we make sure that the max. profit can't go below that value.

Example
Initial bankroll: 100 BTC
Bankrage: 2000 BTC
Average leverage: 20:1
Max. profit: 1 BTC (2000 * 0.0005).
Max. profit low limit: 0.5 BTC (100 * 0.005)

B) Decreasing the max. leverage
An other simple solution is to just decrease the max. leverage to 10, and bind back the max. profit to the bankrage.
The effects will be similar to the solution (A) and easier to understand.
Cons: less offsite coins.

Example
Initial bankroll: 100 BTC
Bankrage: 500 BTC
Average leverage: 5:1
Max. profit: 2.5 BTC (500 * 0.005).

C) Variable house edge with max. profit bind to the initial bankroll
The house edge remain 1% up to the 0.5% max. profit of the initial bankroll.
That system would allow the players to bet above the max. profit but with an increased house edge.
For example, betting 1% of the initial bankroll will result to a 2% house edge. The idea is to increase the house edge by 0.5% every 0.25% above the max. profit.
They will be a max. limit of course. It could be 3% of the initial bankroll, so a max house edge of 6%.
Cons: the max. profit will still be low and the high house edge looks scary.

Example
Initial bankroll: 100 BTC
Max. profit: 0.5 BTC (100 * 0.005).
House edge: 1% for all the bets below of equal to 0.5 BTC. 2% for a 1 BTC bet, etc...

D) Variable house edge with max. profit bind to the bankrage
To make that solution viable, the max. profit must be reduced according to the solution (A), with a lower max. profit (0.025% instead of 0.05%).
This solution is similar to the (C), except that the house edge increase by 0.5% every 0.025% above the max. profit.
The max. limit could be betting 0.2% of the bankrage, with an house edge of 6%.
Cons: the house edge looks scary again, but the difference with the solution (C) is that you need to bet higher to reach the max. house edge 'penalty'.

Example
Initial bankroll: 100 BTC
Bankrage: 2000 BTC
Average leverage: 20:1
Max. profit: 0.5 BTC (2000 * 0.00025).
Max. profit low limit: 0.5 BTC (100 * 0.005).
House edge: 1% for all the bets below of equal to 0.5 BTC. 2% for a 1.5 BTC bet, etc...

[David Latapie]

A) Decreasing the max. profit multiplier
Your (1) is indeed the one that was used to get the max. profit (Bankrage * 0.005, 0.5%).
One solution could be to reduce that value to 0.05%, with a low limit depending of the initial bankroll.
The low limit would be the initial bankroll * 0.5%, so we make sure that the max. profit can't go below that value.

So you would go for:

2.1 Change X as you see fit.
      Pros: simpler
      Cons: maybe for mathematical reasons (Kelly criterion?) this X should not be changed - this is above my payrate

After reading your other proposal, I think like you that A is the best. Now, it can be A1 (what I called 2.1 and you called A) or A2 (what I called 2.2)

  2.2. Add a second multiplier, Y.
      Pros: in case there is a reason for X being X, you can safely change another variable - this will also permit a finer control of the max profit
      Cons: you end up with to multipliers (X and Y), which is inelegant if you have no reason to have the value of X being fixed

Any one else to elaborate on these proposals?

[smooth]

My recommendation is to stop trying to make high leverage "not risky". It is risky and that's partially the whole point of it (see end of second-to-last paragraph below).

Better:

1. Improve documentation/FAQ to clearly explain how 100x leverage means that if the house profit declines by 1% (not an unusual or unlikely event at all), you lose your entire (online) investment.

2. Improve transparency/auditability so that when people are highly leveraged and have big losses, they can see exactly what happened.

Increasing the house edge is silly, and will just drive bettors to other sites.

Reducing the max leverage to say 10x will inevitably mean everyone just maxes out at 10x, and to get a desired share of the bankroll will avoid keeping coins cold. Schemes like the current one (max bet tied to unlevered bankroll but investor share tied to levered) also discourage cold bankrolls and are create more complex, fragile, and non-intuitive failure modes for investors, as I described a few messages back.

Don't worry some of us may use high leverage but if we do it is because we have backup cold bankroll that will be redeposited after a big loss, assuming we are confident that the loss and the site are legit. Others may get cracked a few times but they will learn to stop or use lower leverage. The bankroll won't go broke; the site will be fine. Leverage is a fairly new concept in dice sites and successful investors need to climb the learning curve a bit. Be patient and it will happen. Furthermore some investors want to take silly high risks just because and some bettors want to try to wipe out over-leveraged investors. It is all part of the game and part of the fun. Treat your customers like adults who are capable of making adult decisions about what (potentially high) risks to take and for what reasons.

Thankfully, the work Bobbax is doing on transparency is exactly what is needed.

[Bobbax]

Hi,

let's share more details about the CCD database export.

The export format will be csv, and is going to be updated every weeks.
As the bets database is very large, I'll split the dump in multiple parts, sort by date.

Only a few players are requesting for new seeds (probably even less that 1%), so it will be pretty hard to verify if the bets from the export are legits with the current mechanic.

So I updated the rules of the game a little bit: straight after the dump, all users will receive new seeds (still once per week).
That mean 100% of the bets can be verified because all secrets key become revealed by providing new ones.

Reminder: you can download a javascript verifier here

The implementation of the export system is experimental and should be improved over the time.
Thanks for your patience.

edit: I'll proceed to the first global seeds renewal this week in order to create the first bets dump.

[Bobbax]

New version is up !

Investors will receive more CDP, chatters too.
The Rainbot will always send a few CDP even if nobody sent him funds.

Full Public changelogs - 1.1.9

This version is mostly a server-side upgrade to support the next upcoming features.

[smooth]

Hi,

let's share more details about the CCD database export.

The export format will be csv, and is going to be updated every weeks.
As the bets database is very large, I'll split the dump in multiple parts, sort by date.

Only a few players are requesting for new seeds (probably even less that 1%), so it will be pretty hard to verify if the bets from the export are legits with the current mechanic.

So I updated the rules of the game a little bit: straight after the dump, all users will receive new seeds (still once per week).
That mean 100% of the bets can be verified because all secrets key become revealed by providing new ones.

Great stuff. Looking forward to it!

[opennux]

I would be thoroughly surprised if Bobbax comes around and actually provides information.

It's classic stall-technique. So far all we have seen is question dodging.

Seems like I'm going to be thoroughly surprised. 

[Bobbax]

Vote for your favorite theme here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=984765.0
Should I change the dark theme to be the default one ?

[GaMeOveR-xD]

Can you add Affiliate Program?