Will the popping miningbubble cause price to collapse?

[waaat?]

The topic of 'inflation' seems to be popping up a lot lately.  Maybe I was hiding under a rock at the time, but I don't recall much discussion of inflation when it was 50BTC per block.

I'd like to see more distribution of mining much more than I'd care about the actual Hash rate or the coin creation rate, the latter of which has already been pointed out above is a known and predictable value.  In fact if you do the numbers on the 'inflation', it's not much different than real world inflation for many countries (I mean real inflation as opposed to Gov't statistics - the kind you can measure from you staple purchases in the food basket).  Next halving will put it ahead of FIAT in that sense, not that it's any perfect indicator of FIAT value.

With 50coins a block back then price for a coin was a few dollars so a block found was worth a few hundred bucks. A block found today at 200$ prices is worth 5000$ - and that's money being taken from the market - so that's maybe that difference.

5000$ taken from the market every 10 minutes!
Yes, we short!

[DaRude]

The topic of 'inflation' seems to be popping up a lot lately.  Maybe I was hiding under a rock at the time, but I don't recall much discussion of inflation when it was 50BTC per block.

I'd like to see more distribution of mining much more than I'd care about the actual Hash rate or the coin creation rate, the latter of which has already been pointed out above is a known and predictable value.  In fact if you do the numbers on the 'inflation', it's not much different than real world inflation for many countries (I mean real inflation as opposed to Gov't statistics - the kind you can measure from you staple purchases in the food basket).  Next halving will put it ahead of FIAT in that sense, not that it's any perfect indicator of FIAT value.

With 50coins a block back then price for a coin was a few dollars so a block found was worth a few hundred bucks. A block found today at 200$ prices is worth 5000$ - and that's money being taken from the market - so that's maybe that difference.

5000$ taken from the market every 10 minutes!
Yes, we short!

But everyone knows that. When you buy BTC today you buy knowing that there will be 3600 more tomorrow, and the day after that, and the day after... How can you buy without pricing in inflation i have no idea. It's different with fiat where you have no idea what it'll be and can't plan for it. e.g. you make investments based on a 2% inflation but get smacked with a 10% inflation or 50% if you're in Ukraine.

[twiifm]

The topic of 'inflation' seems to be popping up a lot lately.  Maybe I was hiding under a rock at the time, but I don't recall much discussion of inflation when it was 50BTC per block.

I'd like to see more distribution of mining much more than I'd care about the actual Hash rate or the coin creation rate, the latter of which has already been pointed out above is a known and predictable value.  In fact if you do the numbers on the 'inflation', it's not much different than real world inflation for many countries (I mean real inflation as opposed to Gov't statistics - the kind you can measure from you staple purchases in the food basket).  Next halving will put it ahead of FIAT in that sense, not that it's any perfect indicator of FIAT value.

With 50coins a block back then price for a coin was a few dollars so a block found was worth a few hundred bucks. A block found today at 200$ prices is worth 5000$ - and that's money being taken from the market - so that's maybe that difference.

5000$ taken from the market every 10 minutes!
Yes, we short!

But everyone knows that. When you buy BTC today you buy knowing that there will be 3600 more tomorrow, and the day after that, and the day after... How can you buy without pricing in inflation i have no idea. It's different with fiat where you have no idea what it'll be and can't plan for it. e.g. you make investments based on a 2% inflation but get smacked with a 10% inflation or 50% if you're in Ukraine.

If you know that and you buy then you lose money.  LOL

[DaRude]

The topic of 'inflation' seems to be popping up a lot lately.  Maybe I was hiding under a rock at the time, but I don't recall much discussion of inflation when it was 50BTC per block.

I'd like to see more distribution of mining much more than I'd care about the actual Hash rate or the coin creation rate, the latter of which has already been pointed out above is a known and predictable value.  In fact if you do the numbers on the 'inflation', it's not much different than real world inflation for many countries (I mean real inflation as opposed to Gov't statistics - the kind you can measure from you staple purchases in the food basket).  Next halving will put it ahead of FIAT in that sense, not that it's any perfect indicator of FIAT value.

With 50coins a block back then price for a coin was a few dollars so a block found was worth a few hundred bucks. A block found today at 200$ prices is worth 5000$ - and that's money being taken from the market - so that's maybe that difference.

5000$ taken from the market every 10 minutes!
Yes, we short!

But everyone knows that. When you buy BTC today you buy knowing that there will be 3600 more tomorrow, and the day after that, and the day after... How can you buy without pricing in inflation i have no idea. It's different with fiat where you have no idea what it'll be and can't plan for it. e.g. you make investments based on a 2% inflation but get smacked with a 10% inflation or 50% if you're in Ukraine.

If you know that and you buy then you lose money.  LOL

The thing is bitcoin as an asset is almost impossible to price, especially at this stage. 90% of it is driven by speculation and basic supply and demand. The game is then simple, do you think the demand with grow by a higher rate than "inflation".

[waaat?]

But everyone knows that. When you buy BTC today you buy knowing that there will be 3600 more tomorrow, and the day after that, and the day after... How can you buy without pricing in inflation i have no idea. It's different with fiat where you have no idea what it'll be and can't plan for it. e.g. you make investments based on a 2% inflation but get smacked with a 10% inflation or 50% if you're in Ukraine.

You can not price in inflation!   (or it would be already but can't)
Not possible ... or in case it's possible it just means: very low price

How do you want to price it in? The moment you try and price it in, it is still not priced in and worth less the next day.
That high inflation is very destructive on the market and also on the demand.

Nobody desires to store value in an inflationary currency - only exception: bitcoin bagholders

[deine mudder]

guys, you are slightly offtopic ... not entirely but slightly.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Sound reasoning.
I also believe that the coins accumulated by miners, with hopes of a better future, will be dumped on the market in the coming months.
I believe that pure PoW mining is fundamentally flawed and constant instability is inevitable with it.

[twiifm]

guys, you are slightly offtopic ... not entirely but slightly.

I agree w you.  Equalization/ stability will happen when the Bitcoin economy matches the mining rate.  Which is never since the rate is an arbitrary set rate and not determined by market demand

[deine mudder]

Sound reasoning.
I also believe that the coins accumulated by miners, with hopes of a better future, will be dumped on the market in the coming months.
I believe that pure PoW mining is fundamentally flawed and constant instability is inevitable with it.

pow is fine with less inflation

I agree w you.  Equalization/ stability will happen when the Bitcoin economy matches the mining rate.  Which is never since the rate is an arbitrary set rate and not determined by market demand

You're playing at 'elastic supply' which is no good idea either because it makes speculation useless and denies the free market

---------

I personally think the answer is very simple: put inflation as low as possible (will also help stability in times of lower demand)

Supply and demand make the price. Demand is sometimes so and sometimes so. Supply is fixed. If it isn't fixed you introduce central control or make the free market useless. So the only possible answer for me is: make supply in new coins as low as possible.

But now i'm OT too 

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

pow is fine with less inflation

To me, a system that rewards extremely wasteful use of resources with work without use, is not fine.

Inflationary or deflationary, doesn't matter much anyway, what matters is that the deflationary or inflationary change is stable and predictable. A quality currency value has to be predictable to give it practical use in the economy. You just can't do proper business with a currency that's value is highly unpredictable.

[deine mudder]

To me, a system that rewards extremely wasteful use of resources with work without use, is not fine.

I understand that, but pos isn't ready - maybe some day ...
Pow mining needs to be made usefull, but now look how Primecoin gets dumped. It's all not always rational.
Primecoin getting dumped and alts with low inflation not taking off in a huge way is all not rational behaviour.

Inflationary or deflationary, doesn't matter much anyway, what matters is that the deflationary or inflationary change is stable and predictable. A quality currency value has to be predictable to give it practical use in the economy. You just can't do proper business with a currency that's value is highly unpredictable.

'Inflationary or deflationary, doesn't matter much anyway'
It matters a lot when you are interested in the price. It is a major marketforce - as strong as the demand. Demand and supply are equal marketforces. But people generally tend to better understand the impact of the demand than that of supply on the market.

Look Bitcoin is predictable inflationary ... That's why we short a lot ...

Gold has value as a store of wealth because it is 'predictable scarce'.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

I understand that, but pos isn't ready - maybe some day ...
Pow mining needs to be made usefull, but now  look how Primecoin gets dumped. It's all not always rational.
Primecoin getting dumped and alts with low inflation not taking off in a huge way is all not rational behaviour.

I think that currently the best option is PoW/PoS hybrid. The biggest problem with pure PoS is the trust issues with initial distribution. Initial PoW distribution solves this problem while still moving towards more efficient and smarter PoS.
While I like technical properties of Primecoin, I prefer another SK's creation Peercoin more. My long term (1-5y) gamble with cryptocurrencies is mainly with PPC. I think that when the crypto scenery finally clears of all the religious chanting and hype, then people will start to value more practical solutions instead of solutions that are currently hot subjects in the mainstream media. The most practical coin to date is NuBits, and PPC's value is tied to it's success - that's the reasoning behind my bet.

'Inflationary or deflationary, doesn't matter much anyway'
It matters a lot when you are interested in the price. It is a major marketforce - as strong as the demand. Demand and supply are equal marketforces. But people generally tend to better understand the impact of the demand than that of supply on the market.

Look Bitcoin is predictable inflationary ... That's why we short a lot ...

Yes, I agree that it matters if your goal is to gamble. I personally believe that cryptos can be more then just an innovative gambling platform. And to be more, then it's value has to be stable and predictable.
And bitcoin is built in a way that it's fundamental properties won't allow it to be useful for anything more then gambling. And this gambling method will get old pretty fast.

[manselr]

I watched the mining panel speak this past weekend at the North American Bitcoin Conference. As a highly competitive field, miners have an incentive to discourages others from entering, so they will tell you that their operations are not profitable, or keep quiet on the subject. However, the panel was rather resounding in the fact that mining is still profitable for their companies.

For some perspective, view this chart: https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

Then compare it to price for the same one year time frame. If mining was not profitable, this would not be happening.

Now the Bitcoin network has been proven to be unsustainable thanks to the high inflation.

Nonsense. What do you think you know that the NYSE, USAA, BBVA, Vikram Pandit, Tom Glocer, and NTT DoCoMo don't? I'm assuming you saw the announcement today of their $75MM series C with Coinbase.

Mining is still pretty damn profitable for people living in places where electricity is cheap, you dont even need a farm, just a couple ant miners and you can start seeing gains.

[Bitcopia]

Watch some industry leaders and experts talk about mining. Knowledge is power! Trolling is useless.

http://blockchainstuff.eu/video-of-the-recent-mining-discussion-panel-tnabc-bitmain-valeryvavilov-vcorem-matthewroszak-lukedashjr-courtesy-of-bitcoinist/