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Author Topic: For Those Wondering Why The Current Rally  (Read 9453 times)
capsqrl
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July 18, 2012, 04:52:31 PM
 #21

we're probably still a long way from 1% World GDP, but I do think that target is attainable in the next year

That is probably the most deluded thing I've read around these parts. 1% of world GDP is 700 billion US dollars.

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July 18, 2012, 04:57:28 PM
 #22

Speaking on that point, someone told me that if the illegal drug trade moved to btc exclusively, then each coins would be $15000. I didn't check his math or sources thougl but it sounds believable.

I seriously doubt $15,000 per bitcoin.

Skype started in 2003 and sold to eBay for $2b and Microsoft for $8.5b. If Bitcoin had an $8.5b market cap in 2016, 7 years after starting just like Skype sold to Microsoft about 8 years after starting, then that would translate into about $540 per bitcoin.

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July 18, 2012, 05:42:22 PM
 #23

One step at a time. If Bitcoin becomes an universal currency at some point, it could truly be worth tens of thousands per bitcoin. We're nowhere close anything like that though. Getting to double digits and staying there is the next step. Getting to triple digits and staying there is another step, probably one of the biggest steps Bitcoin will ever make. Thinking any further than that at this point is pointless.

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July 18, 2012, 07:10:45 PM
 #24

I can't speak on the black market number because most measurements of the black market are very difficult to verify. However we can measure worldwide GDP and the supply and demand for currencies presently, and can represent them in USD.

If all 21 million Bitcoins were in circulation (which they are not, and over a million may simply be "lost") today, and only 1% of the World's GDP transferred through Bitcoin, the value of a single Bitcoin would be ~$2200/coin. These are using all the most conservative estimates, because we're obviously not at 21 million Bitcoin, and we're probably still a long way from 1% World GDP, but I do think that target is attainable in the next year, and, given the success of Silk Road, could be attainable within one year, we just can't measure it as legitimate world trade.

Wow.  If you sincerely believe that's attainable and likely, then I hope you're the one buying lots of bitcoins right now.  Also, I'll sell you all my bitcoins right now for $100/BTC so you can still make an absurd profit.

Just because he says that for the future doesnt mean he wants to buy now at a future predicted price.

I'm buying 50btc on halloween from a guy (cant remember his name) on October 31st, 2012. The deal is set. But I'm not going to give him anything until that day. Just like he isn't going to give me anything until then.

Call it "bitcoin futures" lol  Cheesy

Edit: the price is at $11 per btc. But only on that day.

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July 18, 2012, 09:30:17 PM
 #25


If all 21 million Bitcoins were in circulation (which they are not, and over a million may simply be "lost") today, and only 1% of the World's GDP transferred through Bitcoin, the value of a single Bitcoin would be ~$2200/coin. These are using all the most conservative estimates, because we're obviously not at 21 million Bitcoin, and we're probably still a long way from 1% World GDP, but I do think that target is attainable in the next year, and, given the success of Silk Road, could be attainable within one year, we just can't measure it as legitimate world trade.

Would 1% global GDP via Bitcoin justify a price of $2,200 per coin? Absolutely.

Could this happen some day? Absolutely.

Will it happen next year, or even the year after that? No way in hell.

Of course, if Bitcoin is utilized even in .001% of global trade, then Bitcoin has won, and will probably conquer the world shortly thereafter.
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July 18, 2012, 09:33:59 PM
 #26

One step at a time. If Bitcoin becomes an universal currency at some point, it could truly be worth tens of thousands per bitcoin. We're nowhere close anything like that though. Getting to double digits and staying there is the next step. Getting to triple digits and staying there is another step, probably one of the biggest steps Bitcoin will ever make. Thinking any further than that at this point is pointless.

+1
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July 19, 2012, 01:51:29 AM
 #27

Would 1% global GDP via Bitcoin justify a price of $2,200 per coin? Absolutely.

Actually, GDP is a fairly useless number; particularly for attempting to value a bitcoin.

Frank Shostak explains, "The GDP framework cannot tell us whether final goods and services that were produced during a particular period of time are a reflection of real wealth expansion, or a reflection of capital consumption."

As Ludwig von Mises wrote, "The attempts to determine in money the wealth of a nation or of the whole of mankind are as childish as the mystic efforts to solve the riddles of the universe by worrying about the dimensions of the pyramid of Cheops."

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July 19, 2012, 02:44:20 AM
 #28

Would 1% global GDP via Bitcoin justify a price of $2,200 per coin? Absolutely.

Actually, GDP is a fairly useless number; particularly for attempting to value a bitcoin.

Frank Shostak explains, "The GDP framework cannot tell us whether final goods and services that were produced during a particular period of time are a reflection of real wealth expansion, or a reflection of capital consumption."

As Ludwig von Mises wrote, "The attempts to determine in money the wealth of a nation or of the whole of mankind are as childish as the mystic efforts to solve the riddles of the universe by worrying about the dimensions of the pyramid of Cheops."
So what is your suggestion?

a cup of coffee?

Hobo66
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July 19, 2012, 03:02:29 AM
 #29

I'm with you all in this one, but I tell you I will sell all $200,000 bitcoins when it hits $10

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July 19, 2012, 03:55:50 AM
 #30

I'm with you all in this one, but I tell you I will sell all $200,000 bitcoins when it hits $10

And you'll regret it big time when it hits $100

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July 19, 2012, 04:02:41 AM
 #31

I'm with you all in this one, but I tell you I will sell all $200,000 bitcoins when it hits $10

And you'll regret it big time when it hits $100

If he is profitable when he sells he won. Doesn't matter that he didn;'t pick the absolute top.

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sunnankar
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July 19, 2012, 09:07:44 AM
 #32

So what is your suggestion?

a cup of coffee?

Bitcoins are sterile assets just like gold but have less price support because they do not have industrial uses. As such any increase in the price of a bitcoin is simply a transfer of wealth from some other asset's value to holders of bitcoins. I like to view fiat currency as the common stock of issuing entities and value it accordingly. A similar approach may work for valuing bitcoins. Keep in mind that value and price are discrete.

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July 19, 2012, 12:42:11 PM
 #33

As of now, BTC can't rise much above $100, sustainably. The 1MB block size limit must be lifted first.

I am slightly sceptical about the scalability issues even in the long term. Storage space or IO throughput aren't even the most crucial limits, network bandwidth is going to be the first real bottleneck Bitcoin is going to hit.
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July 19, 2012, 01:51:38 PM
 #34

I am slightly sceptical about the scalability issues even in the long term. Storage space or IO throughput aren't even the most crucial limits, network bandwidth is going to be the first real bottleneck Bitcoin is going to hit.
Yeah, seriously. Each node must be able to handle 8Gbps if bitcoin ever operates at VISA levels. Even at the levels they speculate about optimizing it down to would be way above even what most companies can afford. Not that we will be going at VISA levels any time soon, but these issues may start to show way before that.

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July 19, 2012, 02:04:36 PM
 #35

I am slightly sceptical about the scalability issues even in the long term. Storage space or IO throughput aren't even the most crucial limits, network bandwidth is going to be the first real bottleneck Bitcoin is going to hit.
Yeah, seriously. Each node must be able to handle 8Gbps if bitcoin ever operates at VISA levels. Even at the levels they speculate about optimizing it down to would be way above even what most companies can afford. Not that we will be going at VISA levels any time soon, but these issues may start to show way before that.
And we are all connected to the internet with one of these...
Once Bitcoin reaches VISA levels, the technology will be there - it is as easy as that.
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July 19, 2012, 02:32:48 PM
 #36

Once Bitcoin reaches VISA levels, the technology will be there - it is as easy as that.
I think that's a too simplistic attitude. Bandwidth doesn't follow Moore's law; instead it often regresses to where many people now suffer severe bandwidth limitations, peering partners start arguing about money, and powerful companies fight network neutrality. Instead of sitting back and waiting for bandwidth to become ubiquitous and limitless, Bitcoin development must be focused on scaleability.

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July 19, 2012, 02:43:15 PM
 #37

I am slightly sceptical about the scalability issues even in the long term. Storage space or IO throughput aren't even the most crucial limits, network bandwidth is going to be the first real bottleneck Bitcoin is going to hit.
Yeah, seriously. Each node must be able to handle 8Gbps if bitcoin ever operates at VISA levels.

Every full node. Only pool operators and solo miners need to be full nodes.

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July 19, 2012, 03:03:51 PM
 #38

As Ludwig von Mises wrote, "The attempts to determine in money the wealth of a nation or of the whole of mankind are as childish as the mystic efforts to solve the riddles of the universe by worrying about the dimensions of the pyramid of Cheops."

+1  I like that he called it "childish"...cause it really is.
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July 19, 2012, 05:07:23 PM
 #39

Once Bitcoin reaches VISA levels, the technology will be there - it is as easy as that.
I think that's a too simplistic attitude. Bandwidth doesn't follow Moore's law; instead it often regresses to where many people now suffer severe bandwidth limitations, peering partners start arguing about money, and powerful companies fight network neutrality. Instead of sitting back and waiting for bandwidth to become ubiquitous and limitless, Bitcoin development must be focused on scaleability.

Well before we reach VISA levels, bitcoin will hit $100 a piece and there will be much more incentive to tackle the issue.  The closer we get to the scaling problems the more resources we will have to tackle them.  I'm not worried.

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July 19, 2012, 06:00:25 PM
 #40

I seriously doubt $15,000 per bitcoin.

Skype started in 2003 and sold to eBay for $2b and Microsoft for $8.5b. If Bitcoin had an $8.5b market cap in 2016, 7 years after starting just like Skype sold to Microsoft about 8 years after starting, then that would translate into about $540 per bitcoin.

This isn't a good comparison because BitCoin isn't a single business, it is a monetary platform that can be used by all businesses. If the United States government had to run on the market cap of Skype, it would grind to a halt. The order that these things operate in are the Trillions, not billions.

I don't think that $15,000 per bitcoin will happen within the year (barring the outside chance of some hyperinflationary event), but it is easily attainable in the long term.
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