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Author Topic: The smile patrol  (Read 6552 times)
thezerg
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July 18, 2012, 05:29:58 PM
 #21

I'd also like to point out that without some type collateral/principle/earnest now, it's pretty difficult to consider it any type of futures deal. My unique situation allows me to "put my money where my mouth is" and profit, regardless. Now that I've opened my mouth, I'll pay 50BTC just to make it go away, frankly. I'd like to keep up my good reputation because it actually means something to me and I'm not here to talk shit and fuck about.

I made the deal, provided counter terms, they were accepted, a renege was made on the 25%. I'm still willing to send 50btc to someone if they want to escrow, you can work out the cash with smoothie. 25% is what it takes for what is most likely one hell of a good deal, today. The rocket appears to be taking off so to speak, yet I'm only still looking for $137.50 in escrow, which would, in fact secure coins in October, at 11$ /per. The price was 1$ less when I said it yesterday.

Whatever. Troll or participate, it doesn't matter to me. Smiley

Jcpham, I don't read it that way:

I'll accept that $11 /per offer for October 31st. The coins will be waiting on you. You can pay now if you'd like (in full or a partial payment of 25%) and I'll hold on to them for you until that date. I can even find someone to escrow the coins until then if you would like.

Deal. I will buy them on Halloween from you and yes we will use an escrow.


You should have said, "you must pay in full or 25% now".  But you said "if you'd like" -- well I guess he didn't like :-).  You are lucky he's not being a jerk and trying to hold you to the contract as stated.  Of course as originally stated there was also no back out clause.  It was basically a crazy trade -- happening today with a settle date in October. 

Why don't you put up a real call option with a reasonable fee, 6 month span (exercisable at ANY TIME during 6 months) and see if you get any takers?  Personally I'd be tempted at a much lower rate but very afraid of counterparty risk (the escrow party).  Your risk is relatively low, if the call is not exercised and the escrow steals the BTC, you gain the call cost and lose final price*quantity in USD.  But if BTC does rocket the escrow could end up holding a LOT of money in BTC which would be a LOT more tempting to disappear with.  Too bad the double signed acts are not avail yet!  So you'd have to figure that out...

Anyway, if you are a miner looking to lock in a price to reduce uncertainty (similar to all producers of goods the world over), then think about it and post a real offer.



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July 18, 2012, 07:28:47 PM
 #22

Here I will do you one better:

If I back out of the deal (which I won't). The mods of this forum have every right to permanently ban me from this forum.

Deal is on for 10/31/2012.

This is more of an experiment to see how I do and how you do in the trade 3.5 months from now.

Win or lose it will be fun for me.

 Grin Grin Grin

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July 18, 2012, 07:51:48 PM
 #23

If I back out of the deal (which I won't). The mods of this forum have every right to permanently ban me from this forum.

They already do.  The proper thing to do would be to "ban yourself" and leave forever, never creating another account.

Well then I guess everything is set then.

Futures here we come!

███████████████████████████████████████

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July 18, 2012, 08:17:10 PM
 #24

And if it's at USD100 on or near Halloween, I'll be selling enough to make it not worth nearly that much.  Roll Eyes

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July 18, 2012, 08:20:45 PM
 #25

If his position was not defensible there would be no stock options or futures market.  Thinking you got the best of the deal due to its structure alone is myopic.

You essentially just sold a covered call.  Since you are making a profit at the call price its a very good strategy especially when the market is flat or down, and I think you got a GREAT price for the sale of this option.  

But if a BTC is worth 100 bucks in October you will be less happy with your call at 11.

That's why 50btc is a boringly small amount to put on the line.  jcpham will be ecstatic if a BTC is at USD100 in October because 50BTC won't be material.  So he has to sell 50 at a discount.  It's not as if he won't be skipping at the Sum(holdings) - 50 being worth USD100 each.

It's not as big a potential "missed opportunity" as you may think.  Myopia is definitely not the problem.  Assuming a reasonable IRR, the NPV of $550 - cost basis in three months is still worth a couple posts on a thread.  Maybe not the pain of reading smoothie's trolling, but that's another issue.

And if it's at USD100 on or near Halloween, I'll be selling enough to make it not worth nearly that much.  Roll Eyes

Butt hurt? lol....

Dude by all means PLEASE push the price down (if you can) to sub $11 prior to Halloween or near there.

I'll thank you for the gift then.

 Grin Grin Grin

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July 18, 2012, 08:34:36 PM
 #26

I hate that the thread turned sour as well. I'd echo reeses comments and say that math is in my favor, any time I can sell a couple coins for 2x, 3x, maybe 11x what it cost me, I win. If I got some money upfront for it, that's a bonus as I now have your money in my possession to do with as I please. We won't even go into mined coins, just set that notion aside and look at the financials of the deal.
Actually, there's a bit more detail to it than that. It's called the time value of money, and it basically means having money now is worth more than having money in the future, because right now you can make more money with that money.

So yes, while you, right now, can buy coins for $9, it also means your coins are locked until the end of October, and can't be used to make more money. It's very possible that you could have made more than this $2 per coin with it if you didn't go into this trade, perhaps even by simply waiting for the price to rise.

So what smoothie does actually makes sense, assuming he's certain enough about the price being over $11 then.

While I agree that I'm probably loosing out in potential profit, an $11 /per sale is profitable to me. Always will be, from this point forward, nothing can change it. He's laughing, I'm not; he says it is a joke. I say it isn't a joke. I'm EXTRA willing to take the loss now for his money, NOW.

I do agree that $11 lock in this moment is great.
However, if it were set for next month or early September would be better. Because, looking at Bitcoin, it was on a steady incline up until the other day when it shot to $9. Even after that fiasco, it went back to $9 from 8 and seems to be returning to what it was doing. We could see $10 by the end of week, if not the next.
Obviously, anything can happen that can derail this incline but $11 in October is risky business.

If you've got the 50 coin, why not I suppose though :p

I'm not one for donations but if you must go ahead and I will keep you in mind. =)
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July 18, 2012, 08:35:25 PM
 #27

That's why 50btc is a boringly small amount to put on the line.  jcpham will be ecstatic if a BTC is at USD100 in October because 50BTC won't be material.  So he has to sell 50 at a discount.  It's not as if he won't be skipping at the Sum(holdings) - 50 being worth USD100 each.

Yes, so as I posted previously wondering if he or some other early adopter with more coins then cash really does create an instrument with some significant volume, a reasonable option cost, etc it may be well received.

It's not as big a potential "missed opportunity" as you may think.  Myopia is definitely not the problem.  Assuming a reasonable IRR, the NPV of $550 - cost basis in three months is still worth a couple posts on a thread.  Maybe not the pain of reading smoothie's trolling, but that's another issue.

By myopic I just meant that he is looking only at his side of the deal.  But like any option, smoothie's side may also be good.  Personally I don't like it at 25%...

And if it's at USD100 on or near Halloween, I'll be selling enough to make it not worth nearly that much.  Roll Eyes

:-) If its at USD100 that quickly it will be there because major financial players entered the market, so they may gobble your volume like it did not exist.  But of course anything above 11 is a win for both parties.

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July 18, 2012, 09:01:11 PM
 #28

STOP WITH THE IRC LOGS. YOU DWEEBS ARE SATURATING THE SPECULATOR SECTION.  Cheesy

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July 18, 2012, 09:24:48 PM
 #29

I concur. Pasting real-time chat logs on hypertext-semi-permanent-type threads feels sneaky to me, tbh I do not like it. That's a personal opinion not based in anything factual. I think the context of these things is completely lost when you transgress media like this. Especially if we dweebs have some multi-month long troll joke going on that has nothing to do with current events.

witnessed. ponzi.

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July 19, 2012, 05:17:21 AM
 #30

STOP WITH THE IRC LOGS. YOU DWEEBS ARE SATURATING THE SPECULATOR SECTION.  Cheesy

I concur. Pasting real-time chat logs on hypertext-semi-permanent-type threads feels sneaky to me, tbh I do not like it. That's a personal opinion not based in anything factual. I think the context of these things is completely lost when you transgress media like this. Especially if we dweebs have some multi-month long troll joke going on that has nothing to do with current events.

Ponzi.

Witnessed.

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July 19, 2012, 05:18:11 AM
 #31

STOP WITH THE IRC LOGS. YOU DWEEBS ARE SATURATING THE SPECULATOR SECTION.  Cheesy

I concur. Pasting real-time chat logs on hypertext-semi-permanent-type threads feels sneaky to me, tbh I do not like it. That's a personal opinion not based in anything factual. I think the context of these things is completely lost when you transgress media like this. Especially if we dweebs have some multi-month long troll joke going on that has nothing to do with current events.

Ponzi.

Witnessed.

LOL?

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           ²▀▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀▀`          
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July 19, 2012, 07:26:18 AM
 #32

I'm not clear - does smoothie have the option to buy at $11 at the end of October, or the obligation to do so?  i.e. can he elect to just pay the 25% and not take the coins without breaking terms of the contract?

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July 19, 2012, 07:35:48 AM
 #33

I'm not clear - does smoothie have the option to buy at $11 at the end of October, or the obligation to do so?  i.e. can he elect to just pay the 25% and not take the coins without breaking terms of the contract?

Nope. I gotta buy 50 btc at $11 each.

███████████████████████████████████████

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July 19, 2012, 07:59:44 AM
 #34

I'm not clear - does smoothie have the option to buy at $11 at the end of October, or the obligation to do so?  i.e. can he elect to just pay the 25% and not take the coins without breaking terms of the contract?

Nope. I gotta buy 50 btc at $11 each.

And likewise, jcpham has to sell them. Either party breaks it, I'm going to see if Maged thinks that's grounds for a scammer tag.

BTC1MYRkuLv4XPBa6bGnYAronz55grPAGcxja
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July 19, 2012, 08:02:57 AM
 #35

I'm not clear - does smoothie have the option to buy at $11 at the end of October, or the obligation to do so?  i.e. can he elect to just pay the 25% and not take the coins without breaking terms of the contract?

Nope. I gotta buy 50 btc at $11 each.

And likewise, jcpham has to sell them. Either party breaks it, I'm going to see if Maged thinks that's grounds for a scammer tag.

No I think permabanned works better if that scenario ever happens.

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. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.        SMOOTHIE'S HEALTH AND FITNESS JOURNAL          History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
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July 19, 2012, 08:04:20 AM
 #36

I'm not clear - does smoothie have the option to buy at $11 at the end of October, or the obligation to do so?  i.e. can he elect to just pay the 25% and not take the coins without breaking terms of the contract?

Nope. I gotta buy 50 btc at $11 each.

And likewise, jcpham has to sell them. Either party breaks it, I'm going to see if Maged thinks that's grounds for a scammer tag.

No I think permabanned works better if that scenario ever happens.

Yeah, because bans from this forum seem to really stick. Roll Eyes

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July 19, 2012, 08:06:53 AM
 #37

I'm not clear - does smoothie have the option to buy at $11 at the end of October, or the obligation to do so?  i.e. can he elect to just pay the 25% and not take the coins without breaking terms of the contract?

Nope. I gotta buy 50 btc at $11 each.

And likewise, jcpham has to sell them. Either party breaks it, I'm going to see if Maged thinks that's grounds for a scammer tag.

No I think permabanned works better if that scenario ever happens.

Yeah, because bans from this forum seem to really stick. Roll Eyes

You have a point. I've already made my intentions clear. This entire deal for me is for entertainment value...whether I win or lose...i dont really care. But I do expect the other party to hold up their end in both cases.

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           ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓█,,▄▓▓▓▓▓▓▌          
           ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▌          
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     ²▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓╩    
        ▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀       
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                   ²²²                 
███████████████████████████████████████

. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.        SMOOTHIE'S HEALTH AND FITNESS JOURNAL          History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
LEALANA  PHYSICAL MONERO COINS 999 FINE SILVER.
 
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July 19, 2012, 10:03:42 AM
 #38

I'm not clear - does smoothie have the option to buy at $11 at the end of October, or the obligation to do so?  i.e. can he elect to just pay the 25% and not take the coins without breaking terms of the contract?

Nope. I gotta buy 50 btc at $11 each.

So why would you do that?  Why not just buy them for $9 each right now and save yourself $100?

I think the point of buying futures is that you're buying an option to trade at a certain price in the future, but are not obliged to do so.

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July 19, 2012, 04:04:54 PM
 #39

I agree to do the escrow. 50 BTC

1K2iCxLRTZStVTHK8cwoibXnRC5FJw1Sx

To be sent to smoothie on October 31st, 2012 once $550 payment is received.
and $550 forwarded to Jcpham.

Smoothie please contact me so we can arrange the payment of $550.

Have a nice day.
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July 19, 2012, 04:30:23 PM
 #40

53c24851a5e576f701fe32dfe7179dd8f49ba31025ee62c54d923142b8248fb3

Wouldn't be my first ban.

 Huh The BTC are in the address. What would you be banned for?

BTC1MYRkuLv4XPBa6bGnYAronz55grPAGcxja
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No person has the right to initiate force, threat of force, or fraud against another person or their property. VIM VI REPELLERE LICET
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