The future of BTC... is there one?

[runpaint]

I see your point, and it reminds us that we as humans are out of place in this world.  Of all the animals, we alone need money. 

In fact, a carrot is a close as a rabbit gets to a diamond.

[1714983495]

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[1714983495]

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[1714983495]

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[Gumbork]

The only reason the price of BTC isn't higher is because so many of us have already put all of our extra money into BTC.  There is a huge demand among the few early adopters, and most of us would buy another 5btc right now if we had the money.  But we already bought those 5btc last year.  We're buying more as we are able - but so are the growing numbers of new adopters.  Since there are relatively few of us right now, that means it will only take a few more people to double our numbers and therefore double the demand for btc.

demand is just getting bigger, we will see a lot more people willing to play with bitcoin once the regulated exchanges become 100% license, their still a lot of money out their to put in this type of technologies.

[Nerazzura]

Bitcoin decentralized system made many refer to it as the Internet for money. If the Internet is revolutionizing the way the global communications, Bitcoin is believed to change the way the world uses money.

Therefore, Bitcoin often predicted as the currency of the future.

[Dadams]

People seem to forget what money and BTC is.
Money is just a form of communication, a subset of language.
Bitcoin is the evolution of this made possible by the internet. It is not really in our control anymore.

We narcissistically think of humans as separate from nature but this is a subjective, short sighted delusion.
Nothing is separate from nature. The fact that we can not see how we are just part of the pattern means the processes and evolution that determine our fate as a species, planet, solar system is something we don't have a complete picture of. We don't know what we don't know.(Hell... until recently we did not even have a good theory on how we developed, now thankfully we have evolution.)
I alternate between being dumbfounded by how stupid humans are to being astounded by how clever we are. Take this Satoshi guy for example. Genius. Brilliant.
Yet just like any other discovery that has changed humanity this did not happen in a vacuum. He/She/It/They were also just a product of genetics, proteins being programmed, environmental influence and the accumulation of changes that built humanity, social structure, language, electronics, internet and now algorithms living independently on the internet. Bitcoin could not have been born any earlier time and yet the birth was inevitable.

BTC is an idea that has taken on a life of its own.
Even if the creator/s wanted to stop it now, it would very likely be impossible.
If it survives or dies does not depend on any human or group of humans but purely on nature and the rules that govern any other living thing.

An idea that simmers to the top of the collective consciousness and manifests in the way that Bitcoin did, can not simply disappear,  it changes everything.

I am sure that this is the start of the greatest revolution I will see in my lifetime.
In essence it is nothing less than the whole organism that we know as human civilisation evolving into something new.
This happened before, maybe 10k years ago with drawings in a cave, language became more complex, then more recently with writing, printing.
Then telephones, internet.
Now it is happening over the matter of days, weeks and months. We can watch it in realtime. It is like watching an astronomical event that you expect should take a thousand years, except it is sped up like some BBC documentary and splashed on a 3d 60 inch curved OLED home TV for your viewing pleasure.

Nature does not care for people in love with the status quo. There is constant change, seeking the shortest path with least friction, least fragility.
If you have ever seen a lightning strike slowed down to ultimate slow motion and tendrils seeking and then finding the best pathway to consolidate in a blinding flash of light, you will understand how I see bitcoin and why the question about its survival seems ridiculous to me.

TLDR: read post above me

[Dadams]

Daniel A. Nagy 3:00 PM on Nick Szabo's blog at blogspot called Unenumerated in May 2011, this snippet lifted from a conversation with Nick.

"It's not just deflation against which BitCoin is defenseless. Given the lack of feedback, it is just as susceptible to inflation:
Suppose that mining costs catch up with market price. Then, for some reason, market price falls as people sell off their BitCoins. Some miners stop. Some may even sell their equipment and quit the network altogether. This will not reduce the supply of BitCoin, just makes the system a bit more fragile. Those who stay in the mining business will see their rate of mining increase, and rationally anticipating further fall in prices, will also increase the rate at which they sell BitCoin, fulfilling their expectation.

People with BitCoin savings liquidate, some businesses stop accepting BitCoin.

BitCoin's market price falls further. The limit is zero. No feedback to stop the ensuing inflation caused by the general shrinking of BitCoin economy. More and more BitCoin chasing fewer goods and services (and currencies).

This is what I actually expect to happen after the current bubble bursts."

[runpaint]

Daniel A. Nagy 3:00 PM on Nick Szabo's blog at blogspot called Unenumerated in May 2011, this snippet lifted from a conversation with Nick.

"It's not just deflation against which BitCoin is defenseless. Given the lack of feedback, it is just as susceptible to inflation:
Suppose that mining costs catch up with market price. Then, for some reason, market price falls as people sell off their BitCoins. Some miners stop. Some may even sell their equipment and quit the network altogether. This will not reduce the supply of BitCoin, just makes the system a bit more fragile. Those who stay in the mining business will see their rate of mining increase, and rationally anticipating further fall in prices, will also increase the rate at which they sell BitCoin, fulfilling their expectation.

People with BitCoin savings liquidate, some businesses stop accepting BitCoin.

BitCoin's market price falls further. The limit is zero. No feedback to stop the ensuing inflation caused by the general shrinking of BitCoin economy. More and more BitCoin chasing fewer goods and services (and currencies).

This is what I actually expect to happen after the current bubble bursts."

Damn.  And he was totally right, the bubble burst in 2011, and that was the last year that Bitcoin sold for more than zero.

[gogxmagog]

I see your point, and it reminds us that we as humans are out of place in this world.  Of all the animals, we alone need money. 

In fact, a carrot is a close as a rabbit gets to a diamond.

Now that made my day.

[runpaint]

I see your point, and it reminds us that we as humans are out of place in this world.  Of all the animals, we alone need money. 

In fact, a carrot is a close as a rabbit gets to a diamond.

Now that made my day.

Also I got you these for your blog:

[Muuurrrrica!]

Considering that, according to CEX-IO CEO Jeff Smith, "...$320 (per BTC) would be the price point at which most miners will get out of the red..."), and since we are presently at 26% BELOW that mark, one has to reasonable ask: What is the future of BTC AND, Is there one at all?

Due to the recent dip in price (to mid $160's), mainly, many companies have gone belly up... including CEX.IO. Batterfly Labs, HashFast, Cointerra... More will no doubt follow if there's not a sustained rebound. The rebound supposedly motivated by the $75 million dollars cash infusion by venture capitalists to Coinbase, along with their proclaimed regulation in 24 US states, was very sharp (to $310) but extremely brief, so price is back down perhaps on way to test those recent lows or even go lower. So, considering this sustained reality, what is the future of BTC and Is there any at all? Everyone concurs that the blockchain tech will be here to stay... but who would sustain it if miners have to look for a different, less costly hobby? No miners, no blockchain, right?

Meanwhile the other alt coins suffer a debacle in price often of higher proportions than BTC, so, obviously, markets are telling us that the whole shebang is held strictly by BTC.

Opinions?

You see the problem: miners can't be profitable without rebound but a rebound isn't likely, possible or sustainable because miners are dumping it down again - many people have been saying for months now that it's broken on the fundamental level. It attracts high hashrate as long as prices are up but prices aren't sustainable and investing in it makes no sense. It is not scarce enough for a high price.

This whole logic to pay miners so many coins is bullshit in bitcoin because it keeps investors away and makes for an infinite bearmarket. We would need a more scarce coin that rewards miners less coins compared to total coins so the coin would be able to hold some value and not start to decline immediately as soon people aren't buying. This  would provide for more investement, better bullmarkets, shorter bearmarkets, higher price, faster adoption and ultimately more profitable mining (ironically)
Everyone would prefer it if miners would only get half the number of coins and price would be 100% more and sustainable - even the miners would. Miners have too much negative impact on the market but they can't help it too.

Yes, bitcoin is holding down everything. Most alts have hit the natural bottom months ago and want to rise but bitcoin is sick, it can barely breath. Everyone looking at bitcoin for guidance is also sick. It needs to be cured. We need more fiat exchange for alts directly and more altcoin for altcoin exchange. Take Bitcoin out of the equation and cryptocurrency will have a good future.
Bitcoin is just an experiment - the first try. We need as many different tries as possible to find the best solution - bitcoin isn't the best solution. Trading altcoins mainly against bitcoin needs to go to strengthen cryptocurrencies.

[johnyj]

Considering that, according to CEX-IO CEO Jeff Smith, "...$320 (per BTC) would be the price point at which most miners will get out of the red..."), and since we are presently at 26% BELOW that mark, one has to reasonable ask: What is the future of BTC AND, Is there one at all?

Due to the recent dip in price (to mid $160's), mainly, many companies have gone belly up... including CEX.IO. Batterfly Labs, HashFast, Cointerra... More will no doubt follow if there's not a sustained rebound. The rebound supposedly motivated by the $75 million dollars cash infusion by venture capitalists to Coinbase, along with their proclaimed regulation in 24 US states, was very sharp (to $310) but extremely brief, so price is back down perhaps on way to test those recent lows or even go lower. So, considering this sustained reality, what is the future of BTC and Is there any at all? Everyone concurs that the blockchain tech will be here to stay... but who would sustain it if miners have to look for a different, less costly hobby? No miners, no blockchain, right?

Meanwhile the other alt coins suffer a debacle in price often of higher proportions than BTC, so, obviously, markets are telling us that the whole shebang is held strictly by BTC.

Opinions?

The price of almost every commodity has been in a free fall since FED ended QE last year, bitcoin is no exception, just confirming that there is a USD liquidity problem on going. And to make it worse, FED is going to raise the interest rate, which will further reduce the money supply

However, if you have USD reserve, it is usually a good time to buy when everyone else are running out of fiat

[stellar1]

We have already seen a good portion of the future of BTC. Rest evolves as we see. Future yes, BTC has a very bright future ahead. It has changed payments systems and currency for good.

If you mean its USD value going up or down or your portfolio losses increasing, well we never ask if a NASDAQ stock has a future when our NASDAQ portfolio goes into deep red do we ? Or folks of a nation never ask if their currency depreciates against the USD; do they ?

Then why have such expectations from BTC. The market decides. Like it has in the past; and will continue to do in the future. Problem is market is always neutral and never cares if a certain participant is getting richer or poorer.

[runpaint]

Everyone would prefer it if miners would only get half the number of coins

They already do get half the number of coins.  And they will again. 

Before you go around declaring "Bitcoin is sick" and telling us what the solutions are, maybe you should find out just a handful of the basic facts about how Bitcoin works.

The good news is that you are right about the price going up when miners get half as many coins.

[Searing]

The only reason the price of BTC isn't higher is because so many of us have already put all of our extra money into BTC.  There is a huge demand among the few early adopters, and most of us would buy another 5btc right now if we had the money.  But we already bought those 5btc last year.  We're buying more as we are able - but so are the growing numbers of new adopters.  Since there are relatively few of us right now, that means it will only take a few more people to double our numbers and therefore double the demand for btc.

if btc is a 3 legged stool it is adoption of bitcoin (ie usefulness)

1) price bubble 2013-2014

2) miner bubble 2014-2015

3) adoption (no idea but i can only handle 3 things in my head at any one time)

so unless it grows in infrastructure and use etc to keep or gain something on the 1st 2 points above it will dead cat bounce into 'beanie baby' or tulips (tulip crisis historical)

on the other hand I WILL HAVE A SH*LOAD OF BITCOIN ...bruahahahahaha (evil laugh)

anyway BTC is less work then cat collecting in my elder years ..so anyway

[BillyBobZorton]

Bitcoin will be around for years to come. This is inevitable. Far too much money is invested for it to suddenly collapse. Many fail to understand who the key holders are of the top 100 addresses or so. Time will release all of the info we so very much crave.

It's not inevitable. Read his post. It's not sustainable if the value drops and stays below what is profitable to the miners. If they're losing money mining why would they bother? They'd be forced to stop and without miners mining that would be the end of btc.

Some miners that still see profits due being on a privileged position in terms of energy consumption will stay for long term massive profits. There will always be miners out there.

[countryfree]

There is a future in BTC because I, for one, will start a new business around it this Spring, and I'm not the only one making projects. There are dozens of start-ups working on BTC right now.

Excellent. With more and more start-ups appearing every day, it's obvious that Bitcoin is getting bigger and bigger. May I ask what your business will be about? Or do you prefer to not announce details until the actually launch. Either way, good luck and godspeed, sir, in your endeavours!

Thanks for your encouragement, but as you've thought, since we're not looking for partners at this time, I don't want to reveal anything.

[Erdogan]

People seem to forget what money and BTC is.
Money is just a form of communication, a subset of language.
Bitcoin is the evolution of this made possible by the internet. It is not really in our control anymore.

We narcissistically think of humans as separate from nature but this is a subjective, short sighted delusion.
Nothing is separate from nature. The fact that we can not see how we are just part of the pattern means the processes and evolution that determine our fate as a species, planet, solar system is something we don't have a complete picture of. We don't know what we don't know.(Hell... until recently we did not even have a good theory on how we developed, now thankfully we have evolution.)
I alternate between being dumbfounded by how stupid humans are to being astounded by how clever we are. Take this Satoshi guy for example. Genius. Brilliant.
Yet just like any other discovery that has changed humanity this did not happen in a vacuum. He/She/It/They were also just a product of genetics, proteins being programmed, environmental influence and the accumulation of changes that built humanity, social structure, language, electronics, internet and now algorithms living independently on the internet. Bitcoin could not have been born any earlier time and yet the birth was inevitable.

BTC is an idea that has taken on a life of its own.
Even if the creator/s wanted to stop it now, it would very likely be impossible.
If it survives or dies does not depend on any human or group of humans but purely on nature and the rules that govern any other living thing.

An idea that simmers to the top of the collective consciousness and manifests in the way that Bitcoin did, can not simply disappear,  it changes everything.

I am sure that this is the start of the greatest revolution I will see in my lifetime.
In essence it is nothing less than the whole organism that we know as human civilisation evolving into something new.
This happened before, maybe 10k years ago with drawings in a cave, language became more complex, then more recently with writing, printing.
Then telephones, internet.
Now it is happening over the matter of days, weeks and months. We can watch it in realtime. It is like watching an astronomical event that you expect should take a thousand years, except it is sped up like some BBC documentary and splashed on a 3d 60 inch curved OLED home TV for your viewing pleasure.

Nature does not care for people in love with the status quo. There is constant change, seeking the shortest path with least friction, least fragility.
If you have ever seen a lightning strike slowed down to ultimate slow motion and tendrils seeking and then finding the best pathway to consolidate in a blinding flash of light, you will understand how I see bitcoin and why the question about its survival seems ridiculous to me.

TLDR: read post above me

This is great! You are talking like a priest!

[nakaone]

Daniel A. Nagy 3:00 PM on Nick Szabo's blog at blogspot called Unenumerated in May 2011, this snippet lifted from a conversation with Nick.

"It's not just deflation against which BitCoin is defenseless. Given the lack of feedback, it is just as susceptible to inflation:
Suppose that mining costs catch up with market price. Then, for some reason, market price falls as people sell off their BitCoins. Some miners stop. Some may even sell their equipment and quit the network altogether. This will not reduce the supply of BitCoin, just makes the system a bit more fragile. Those who stay in the mining business will see their rate of mining increase, and rationally anticipating further fall in prices, will also increase the rate at which they sell BitCoin, fulfilling their expectation.

People with BitCoin savings liquidate, some businesses stop accepting BitCoin.

BitCoin's market price falls further. The limit is zero. No feedback to stop the ensuing inflation caused by the general shrinking of BitCoin economy. More and more BitCoin chasing fewer goods and services (and currencies).

This is what I actually expect to happen after the current bubble bursts."

Damn.  And he was totally right, the bubble burst in 2011, and that was the last year that Bitcoin sold for more than zero.

well there is a feedback to stop it and that is the limited supply.

the economics of bitcoin technology are sound especially when the price drops

imagine an entity would set a buy wall of 4,2 billion dollar on an exchange - the price could never be lower than 200$ again. the same obviously holds true on every price level given

[NotLambchop]

...
imagine an entity would set a buy wall of 4,2 billion dollar on an exchange - the price could never be lower than 200$ again...

Imagine if that 4.2 billion dollars is removed from an exchange, and is offered instead for a metric ton of my poop?  My bowel movements would make me exceptionally wealthy. 

Sadly, my scenario hinges on the same improbable event as yours: Someone being batshit crazy enough to part with 4.2 billion dollars for our respective treasures.

[Bernard Lerring]

...
imagine an entity would set a buy wall of 4,2 billion dollar on an exchange - the price could never be lower than 200$ again...

Imagine if that 4.2 billion dollars is removed from an exchange, and is offered instead for a metric ton of my poop?  My bowel movements would make me exceptionally wealthy. 

Sadly, my scenario hinges on the same improbable event as yours: Someone being batshit crazy enough to part with 4.2 billion dollars for our respective treasures.

Could you send your poop halfway around the world in under ten minutes? Thought not. I'll keep buying my poop local.

[traderCJ]

You see the problem: miners can't be profitable without rebound but a rebound isn't likely, possible or sustainable because miners are dumping it down again - many people have been saying for months now that it's broken on the fundamental level. It attracts high hashrate as long as prices are up but prices aren't sustainable and investing in it makes no sense. It is not scarce enough for a high price.

This whole logic to pay miners so many coins is bullshit in bitcoin because it keeps investors away and makes for an infinite bearmarket. We would need a more scarce coin that rewards miners less coins compared to total coins so the coin would be able to hold some value and not start to decline immediately as soon people aren't buying. This  would provide for more investement, better bullmarkets, shorter bearmarkets, higher price, faster adoption and ultimately more profitable mining (ironically)
Everyone would prefer it if miners would only get half the number of coins and price would be 100% more and sustainable - even the miners would. Miners have too much negative impact on the market but they can't help it too.

Yes, bitcoin is holding down everything. Most alts have hit the natural bottom months ago and want to rise but bitcoin is sick, it can barely breath. Everyone looking at bitcoin for guidance is also sick. It needs to be cured. We need more fiat exchange for alts directly and more altcoin for altcoin exchange. Take Bitcoin out of the equation and cryptocurrency will have a good future.
Bitcoin is just an experiment - the first try. We need as many different tries as possible to find the best solution - bitcoin isn't the best solution. Trading altcoins mainly against bitcoin needs to go to strengthen cryptocurrencies.

You do realize that it was profitable to mine Bitcoin even at $1.  That's because the protocol automatically adjusts difficulty (albeit, lagged).

To quote Gordon Gekko: "Anything worth doing, is worth doing for money"