Let me get this straight.

[Felonious Monk]

Registered an account because the wheels were spinning in my head, and I need to talk to someone about this.

So butterfly labs' Minirig SC, when it comes out, performs at 1,000 GH/s and runs $30k.

At a leased office where you pay no electricity, and at our relatively lame $10.5 USD conversion, it'd pay for itself in about a week plus, and in 12 months you'd net a million USD.

I understand that the coins generated per block are dropping to 25 in December, and I understand a dozen of the movers and shakers that have the breathing room to stick this into service may drive the value of bitcoin down.

30k plus full time working to make sure it stays up in order to pull a million, give or take based on the market, Jesus, why not? Are my numbers wrong?

[1714008507]

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[Bitcoin Oz]

BFL ASIC's are vapourware.

[Felonious Monk]

Do you think everyone with your plans of amazing profits have purchased a BFL product? Do you think there will be huge increases in difficulty if the product ships? Will you be among the first to receive the product or the last?

Ha, it's always worst-case-scenario. Might want to rephrase that first question, but no, let's throw out the most pessimistic of estimates. Difficulty would increase and would hurt the home miner with mid range gpu rigs. If I did cobble together the money to order, I'd be at the end of the list, and if the regular minirig is any indication, the lead time for ordering is like 12 weeks. This could be even worse.

[Felonious Monk]

BFL ASIC's are vapourware.

What they can't reallocated for encryption breaking in the field of computer forensics if the market completely crashes and the owner wants to pull out completely?

Man, I was just curious about what talk was out there; crazy amount of hate in the thread, and it's just got started.

[RoloTonyBrownTown]

BFL ASIC's are vapourware.

Meh, everyone said the same thing about their FPGA's

[gmouse]

Any projections based upon a potentially disruptive technology are invalid unless you think you are the only one with access to that technology.  So, sadly, you would never make gains like you have worked out based upon current difficulty.

Projects like ASICMINER are perhaps the best way to throw away your $30K -- invest in making the hardware itself that all the miners will feel compelled to use!  At least that way, you have a small chance!

[Felonious Monk]

Do you think everyone with your plans of amazing profits have purchased a BFL product? Do you think there will be huge increases in difficulty if the product ships? Will you be among the first to receive the product or the last?

Ha, it's always worst-case-scenario. Might want to rephrase that first question, but no, let's throw out the most pessimistic of estimates. Difficulty would increase and would hurt the home miner with mid range gpu rigs. If I did cobble together the money to order, I'd be at the end of the list, and if the regular minirig is any indication, the lead time for ordering is like 12 weeks. This could be even worse.

I don't mean to discourage you. I want the block chain to be as secure as possible! Also, I don't want people to get discouraged when they aren't overnight millionaires.

Oh absolutely. Nothing worth anything won't come without substantial investments of manpower, time, etc. and when things go awry, cost towards 3rd party experts.

I understand the weariness because I read an archived thread where some jack ass said he just plopped down the pre order amount, and now, golly, how does he use it when he gets it?

Vapor ware, maybe, but more than a few people have said things like the rPi would never ship and bam, there it is.

[dave3]

Registered an account because the wheels were spinning in my head, and I need to talk to someone about this.

So butterfly labs' Minirig SC, when it comes out, performs at 1,000 GH/s and runs $30k.

At a leased office where you pay no electricity, and at our relatively lame $10.5 USD conversion, it'd pay for itself in about a week plus, and in 12 months you'd net a million USD.

I understand that the coins generated per block are dropping to 25 in December, and I understand a dozen of the movers and shakers that have the breathing room to stick this into service may drive the value of bitcoin down.

30k plus full time working to make sure it stays up in order to pull a million, give or take based on the market, Jesus, why not? Are my numbers wrong?

The system is designed to release a set number of bitcoins over a time period, by making it more or less difficult to mine depending on how much total mining power there is.  As soon as people start mining with ASICs, it will become more difficult to mine and it won't make as much money as you're estimating.

If you can be among the very first to mine with an ASIC, you'll have an advantage for a little while, but it won't last.

[gmouse]

Man, I was just curious about what talk was out there; crazy amount of hate in the thread, and it's just got started.

I didn't see anything as "hate"  Just a fair bit of common sense.  I drooled too though when I saw that maybe I could for, $165, get a coffee warmer...  Until i realized so, too would everyone else...

That is when I decided to toss a nice amount of coin to ASICMINER.  This way, it becomes like betting on a horse race, and if I don't get paid back, oh well.  But even if I personally bought a rig, I would just be knocked down to earth quickly, and no better than I am now, with my own meager efforts using GPU.

[Felonious Monk]

Any projections based upon a potentially disruptive technology are invalid unless you think you are the only one with access to that technology.  So, sadly, you would never make gains like you have worked out based upon current difficulty.

See, that's fair.

Projects like ASICMINER are perhaps the best way to throw away your $30K -- invest in making the hardware itself that all the miners will feel compelled to use!  At least that way, you have a small chance!

Ha, maybe. There seems to be as much apprehension as there is for this.

[Felonious Monk]

Man, I was just curious about what talk was out there; crazy amount of hate in the thread, and it's just got started.

I didn't see anything as "hate"  Just a fair bit of common sense.  I drooled too though when I saw that maybe I could for, $165, get a coffee warmer...  Until i realized so, too would everyone else...

In retrospect it was mostly just goat.

[Hunterbunter]

Probably the most important thing to any miner is their hash/network hash ratio. If over a day you own 25% of the hashing power, you'll probably get 25% of the total coins generated that day.

How long do you think the ratio that produced your initial projected income will last?

[kjj]

Do your calculations again with a difficulty of about 70,000,000.

[Gabi]

BFL ASIC's are vapourware.

Meh, everyone said the same thing about their FPGA's

So because they sell FPGA that means that they also can produce ASIC? I don't see how the two things are related. I know how to walk, does that mean that i can also learn how to fly? 

[kjj]

BFL ASIC's are vapourware.

Meh, everyone said the same thing about their FPGA's

So because they sell FPGA that means that they also can produce ASIC? I don't see how the two things are related. I know how to walk, does that mean that i can also learn how to fly? 

Heh.  They are related.  Google FPGA, ASIC and VHDL.

[bitcoinbear]

This thread is a great example of what not to title your thread, since the title conveys absolutely no information about the topic of the tread. A better title would be "Is the BFL minirig actually as great a moneymaker as I think it is?".

[Gabi]

BFL ASIC's are vapourware.

Meh, everyone said the same thing about their FPGA's

So because they sell FPGA that means that they also can produce ASIC? I don't see how the two things are related. I know how to walk, does that mean that i can also learn how to fly? 

Heh.  They are related.  Google FPGA, ASIC and VHDL.

Not really.
For FPGA you can happily buy FPGA from other produers, you just make the bitstream and done.

For ASIC you need to do the plans for them, then you need to have a foundry to make your chips, this require 1)ppl that know how to make a properly working chip, and not one wich just work, but one with very good performance 2)invest millions to make the masks&co to start to make the chips.