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Author Topic: 1,000,000 Bitcoin users by the end of 2013 ?  (Read 1634 times)
jim618
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July 21, 2012, 12:05:05 PM
 #1

I was looking this morning at the MultiBit download stats.
They are running at 90 a day.

It got me thinking:
With code improvements and general growth in Bitcoin awareness, is it possible that this number will increase over the next year to, say, 200 a day ?

Yes.

That would be 6,000 people a month trying it out (or upgrading or whatever).
72,000 a year.


There are now at least a dozen clients (full, lightweight, hosted, hybrid, mobile, etc).

With comparable download rates (ok - that is a bit of an assumption) the total "yearly Bitcoin client signup/install rate) might be:
12 * 72,000 = 850,000ish per year.

It is July 2012 now.
At that rate we would most likely hit 1,000,000 Bitcoin users by the end of 2013.

There are lots of assumptions and guesswork in the above but it does not seem outlandish.

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July 21, 2012, 12:11:38 PM
 #2

I was looking this morning at the MultiBit download stats.
They are running at 90 a day.

It got me thinking:
With code improvements and general growth in Bitcoin awareness, is it possible that this number will increase over the next year to, say, 200 a day ?

Yes.

That would be 6,000 people a month trying it out (or upgrading or whatever).
72,000 a year.


There are now at least a dozen clients (full, lightweight, hosted, hybrid, mobile, etc).

With comparable download rates (ok - that is a bit of an assumption) the total "yearly Bitcoin client download/install rate) might be:
12 * 72,000 = 850,000ish per year.

It is July 2012 now.
At that rate we would most likely hit 1,000,000 Bitcoin users by the end of 2013.

There are lots of assumptions and guesswork in the above but it does not seem outlandish.

but bitcoin fanatics mess up that theory since most will have tried alternate wallets ,lite wallets ,smart phones and maybe also back up wallets and multiple instances of the original wallet on differnt pcs etc

i would guess the majority of the community has downloaded more than one wallet per person already

 
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July 21, 2012, 12:15:38 PM
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Oh yes, it could very well be one person downloading frantically !

:-)

I guess what I mean to say is that we just need to keep improving what we are already doing and getting the word out about Bitcoin. Within a couple of years Bitcoin might be the size of a decent metropolis.

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Dansker
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July 21, 2012, 12:27:14 PM
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Also you have to take into account, that the same piece of software will be downloaded several times by some same users.

Also, some people will download the software, but never use it or only once.

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July 21, 2012, 12:32:19 PM
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That "90 a day" figure was for the last 4 days for a version of MultiBit that had minor bug fixes in it. I do not know for sure, but most likely these were new users trying it out rather than upgrades.

Your point is still valid though.

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Ichthyo
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July 21, 2012, 12:42:42 PM
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Also you have to take into account, that the same piece of software will be downloaded several times by some same users.

Also, some people will download the software, but never use it or only once.

so, applying that corrective factors, your numbers rather turn out somewat at 30000 users next year Undecided
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July 21, 2012, 12:44:49 PM
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@Ichthyo
I think we would both be willing to bet that the number was between 30,000 and 1,000,000 yes !

Of course, half the fun of Bitcoin is that it has never been done before so nobody knows.

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July 21, 2012, 01:01:41 PM
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Users of online wallet services, exchanges, pools etc without bothering to run a client at home don't count?

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July 21, 2012, 01:06:56 PM
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Oh yes - of course they do!

Exchange accounts are used by a lot of people for their BTC I know.
The 'hosted and hybrid' was meant to cover the various online options e.g. blockchain.info, paytunia.

It shows I am not a miner though as I did not think about pools.


The 'dozen clients' is a rough guess for how much to scale up the MultiBit figures.
A factor of 12 is probably in the ball park.

It is quite difficult to find out the total number of real, live humans that actually use bitcoin.

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July 21, 2012, 02:12:05 PM
 #10

Define "User"

Ho will you be able to calculate this number?

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July 21, 2012, 02:33:20 PM
 #11

if you look at all the numbers like downloads of different clients, new forum regististrations etc. it looks like the number of users has linear growth. with some percentage losing interest after a while, this means it will stagnate eventually or is stagnating already at a certain number of users.

so for bitcoins continueing growth, phases of exponential growth are absolutely necessary. for the last year or so we saw a period of consolidation and slow and steady growth. which isnt, bad but at some point it needs to speed up significantly or bitcoin will eventually die.

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July 21, 2012, 02:33:44 PM
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It is pretty difficult to define a bitcoin user.
In the OP I guess I am using 'familiarity enough with bitcoin that they have used some bitcoin software' so it is a pretty wide definition.


There is a spectrum between someone who has:

+ Had a look at bitcoin once

to

+ Uses bitcoin for every aspect of their life, including the food they eat and the petrol they consume (probably noone is in this category at the moment)


The more useful bitcoin is (in terms of services you can buy with it, can you pay your bills with it etc) the more people will migrate "along the spectrum". They might use it for a specific reason, like the experience and then use it a bit more the next month.


Your general point is valid though. With an intentionally "low albedo" thing like Bitcoin you cannot really get stats like:

"Harry Jones, of 401 Albion Drive, Chichester, uses bitcoin on average 6 times a month, with an average spend of 3BTC. He buys primarily men's cosmetics, gadgets and home improvement equipment".

It is a bit futile to look for this sort of information - the only concrete figures I have with MultiBit for instance is downloads over time.

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July 21, 2012, 03:04:29 PM
 #13

does bitcoin problem/algorythm is unlimited
im so curios
help me find the answer
bitcoin will be the future internet currency will it possible?

my address :18TTx6qBr2LTiyRu6SuLDX1SFwDCQyeJRC
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July 21, 2012, 03:16:13 PM
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does bitcoin problem/algorythm is unlimited
im so curios
help me find the answer
bitcoin will be the future internet currency will it possible?

I believe it will be one of the currencies.

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July 22, 2012, 02:12:48 PM
 #15

if you look at all the numbers like downloads of different clients, new forum regististrations etc. it looks like the number of users has linear growth. with some percentage losing interest after a while, this means it will stagnate eventually or is stagnating already at a certain number of users.

so for bitcoins continueing growth, phases of exponential growth are absolutely necessary. for the last year or so we saw a period of consolidation and slow and steady growth. which isnt, bad but at some point it needs to speed up significantly or bitcoin will eventually die.
+1

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July 22, 2012, 03:54:08 PM
 #16

Just watch two things - aggregate network hashing capacity (on a long-term trending basis) and average transaction volume being recorded in the blockchain. It is tempting to slap down a trendline and extrapolate, but I'm just fine with watching the above.

If anyone feels like plotting the two on a long term basis, I would be interested in seeing it.

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
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July 22, 2012, 04:53:42 PM
 #17

You just reminded me, didn't Max Kieser have as a stated goal to help bitcoin reach 1,000,000 new users by the end of 2012?

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