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Author Topic: Satoshi Dice - how to last longer  (Read 19669 times)
Sovereign108
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September 02, 2012, 09:49:14 AM
 #21

I just ran that R script for 8x. Here is the output - is this ok?

> #change these variables to suit
> r<- 8
> p <- 8000/65536
> bets<- 100
> max<- 1
>
> strategy.func(r, bets, max, p)
[1] m = 1.14285714285714  |  init = 0.00924140314804633  |  percentage loss to fees = 0.0468061760111049 %.
>
> allbets.func(r, bets, max, p)
       bet number  bet amount
  [1,]          1    0.010562
  [2,]          2    0.012070
  [3,]          3    0.013795
  [4,]          4    0.015765
  [5,]          5    0.018018
  [6,]          6    0.020592
  [7,]          7    0.023533
  [8,]          8    0.026895
  [9,]          9    0.030737
 [10,]         10    0.035128
 [11,]         11    0.040147
 [12,]         12    0.045882
 [13,]         13    0.052436
 [14,]         14    0.059927
 [15,]         15    0.068488
 [16,]         16    0.078272
 [17,]         17    0.089454
 [18,]         18    0.102233
 [19,]         19    0.116838
 [20,]         20    0.133529
 [21,]         21    0.152605
 [22,]         22    0.174406
 [23,]         23    0.199321
 [24,]         24    0.227795
 [25,]         25    0.260337
 [26,]         26    0.297528
 [27,]         27    0.340033
 [28,]         28    0.388609
 [29,]         29    0.444124
 [30,]         30    0.507570
 [31,]         31    0.580081
 [32,]         32    0.662949
 [33,]         33    0.757656
 [34,]         34    0.865893
 [35,]         35    0.989592
 [36,]         36    1.130962
 [37,]         37    1.292528
 [38,]         38    1.477175
 [39,]         39    1.688200
 [40,]         40    1.929371
 [41,]         41    2.204996
 [42,]         42    2.519995
 [43,]         43    2.879994
 [44,]         44    3.291422
 [45,]         45    3.761625
 [46,]         46    4.299000
 [47,]         47    4.913143
 [48,]         48    5.615021
 [49,]         49    6.417167
 [50,]         50    7.333905
 [51,]         51    8.381605
 [52,]         52    9.578978
 [53,]         53   10.947403
 [54,]         54   12.511318
 [55,]         55   14.298649
 [56,]         56   16.341313
 [57,]         57   18.675786
 [58,]         58   21.343756
 [59,]         59   24.392864
 [60,]         60   27.877558
 [61,]         61   31.860067
 [62,]         62   36.411505
 [63,]         63   41.613148
 [64,]         64   47.557884
 [65,]         65   54.351867
 [66,]         66   62.116420
 [67,]         67   70.990194
 [68,]         68   81.131650
 [69,]         69   92.721886
 [70,]         70  105.967870
 [71,]         71  121.106137
 [72,]         72  138.407014
 [73,]         73  158.179444
 [74,]         74  180.776508
 [75,]         75  206.601723
 [76,]         76  236.116255
 [77,]         77  269.847149
 [78,]         78  308.396741
 [79,]         79  352.453419
 [80,]         80  402.803907
 [81,]         81  460.347323
 [82,]         82  526.111226
 [83,]         83  601.269972
 [84,]         84  687.165683
 [85,]         85  785.332209
 [86,]         86  897.522524
 [87,]         87 1025.740028
 [88,]         88 1172.274317
 [89,]         89 1339.742077
 [90,]         90 1531.133802
 [91,]         91 1749.867203
 [92,]         92 1999.848232
 [93,]         93 2285.540836
 [94,]         94 2612.046670
 [95,]         95 2985.196194
 [96,]         96 3411.652793
 [97,]         97 3899.031764
 [98,]         98 4456.036301
 [99,]         99 5092.612916
[100,]        100 5820.129047
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Sovereign108
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September 02, 2012, 09:55:59 AM
 #22

Also, it starts getting ugly after 50 bets! I have 3 existing bets I have to resume which are past stage 50 to get my money back  Undecided
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September 02, 2012, 09:59:29 AM
 #23

Also, it starts getting ugly after 50 bets! I have 3 existing bets I have to resume which are past stage 50 to get my money back  Undecided

You have been resetting back to 0.010562 after any win?

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September 02, 2012, 10:03:04 AM
 #24

Yes, but sometimes I get bold and go ahead after a winning! With good results though know I look silly with all the losses haha

Also, it starts getting ugly after 50 bets! I have 3 existing bets I have to resume which are past stage 50 to get my money back  Undecided

You have been resetting back to 0.010562 after any win?
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September 02, 2012, 10:07:36 AM
 #25

Yes, but sometimes I get bold and go ahead after a winning! With good results though know I look silly with all the losses haha

Also, it starts getting ugly after 50 bets! I have 3 existing bets I have to resume which are past stage 50 to get my money back  Undecided

You have been resetting back to 0.010562 after any win?

If you lose, you increase the bet as per schedule. If you win, you return to the initial bet. If you don't do that, then the strategy cannot work. Try it, and post how you went.

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September 02, 2012, 10:31:06 AM
 #26

OK< will let you know how that goes then as soon as I get more bitcoins  Shocked
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September 02, 2012, 12:00:01 PM
 #27

Mind me asking as to why this method won't work if you continue after a bet you have won?
Yes, but sometimes I get bold and go ahead after a winning! With good results though know I look silly with all the losses haha

Also, it starts getting ugly after 50 bets! I have 3 existing bets I have to resume which are past stage 50 to get my money back  Undecided

You have been resetting back to 0.010562 after any win?

If you lose, you increase the bet as per schedule. If you win, you return to the initial bet. If you don't do that, then the strategy cannot work. Try it, and post how you went.
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September 02, 2012, 12:03:08 PM
 #28

Mind me asking as to why this method won't work if you continue after a bet you have won?

Because that's not the method. A Martingale increases a bet to make up for lost bets. As soon as you've won, you've made up for the bets you lost and you return to the initial bet.



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Sovereign108
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September 02, 2012, 12:05:21 PM
 #29

I see, well if I had followed this method I wouldn't have lost all my money  Sad
Mind me asking as to why this method won't work if you continue after a bet you have won?

Because that's not the method. A Martingale increases a bet to make up for lost bets. As soon as you've won, you've made up for the bets you lost and you return to the initial bet.



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September 02, 2012, 12:14:42 PM
 #30

I see, well if I had followed this method I wouldn't have lost all my money  Sad
Mind me asking as to why this method won't work if you continue after a bet you have won?

Because that's not the method. A Martingale increases a bet to make up for lost bets. As soon as you've won, you've made up for the bets you lost and you return to the initial bet.

That isn't exactly why I wrote it - you'll still lose all your money, but it could take way longer to do it. The reason is that the house has an edge, and that means if you play it for long enough, you'll always lose. But if you have a coin or two to play with an want some entertainment, then this is as safe a martingale as there can be. As long as you follow the strategy outline in the OP.

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September 02, 2012, 12:20:25 PM
 #31

[offtopic]
"Last longer in bed... with Satoshi Dice"
[/offtopic]

Twitter: @BitInvest - 2000+ active followers, PM for sponsored tweets.
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September 02, 2012, 12:22:13 PM
 #32

[offtopic]
"Last longer in bed... with Satoshi Dice"
[/offtopic]

I'm waiting to see what the demand is like before I decide on whether to sell the Satoshi dice nasal spray or the Satoshi dice injection.

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Sovereign108
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September 02, 2012, 12:41:49 PM
 #33

Is the house edge reset after a certain amount of time? Or does it track you always?

I see, well if I had followed this method I wouldn't have lost all my money  Sad
Mind me asking as to why this method won't work if you continue after a bet you have won?

Because that's not the method. A Martingale increases a bet to make up for lost bets. As soon as you've won, you've made up for the bets you lost and you return to the initial bet.

That isn't exactly why I wrote it - you'll still lose all your money, but it could take way longer to do it. The reason is that the house has an edge, and that means if you play it for long enough, you'll always lose. But if you have a coin or two to play with an want some entertainment, then this is as safe a martingale as there can be. As long as you follow the strategy outline in the OP.
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September 02, 2012, 12:51:12 PM
 #34

Is the house edge reset after a certain amount of time? Or does it track you always?

The house edge is dependant on the bets you take. See the Satoshi dice statistical analysis thread for more details.

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Sovereign108
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September 03, 2012, 11:46:34 PM
 #35

If you don't mind, there is a maths issue that is killing me!
>> m = 1 / (1 - 1 / r)

For the formula is brackets, why is it 1-1? I'm thinking the final fraction gets transformed to r/(1-1) but I still don't get how m =1.142857

Cheers!

Source:
1. r = 8
2. bets = 100
3. max = 1 btc
4. p = 8000/65536, q = 1 - p
5. m = 1 / (1 - 1 / r)
6. n = round(-log (bets * p + 1) / log( q ))
7. init = max / sum( m ^ ( 1 : n ) )
8. % fee loss = (1-(init * m ^ n * r - 0.0005)/(init * m ^ n * r)) * 100


then
m = 1.142857
init = 0.009294345
% fee loss = 0.04653956%

As above, with fees and return on loss:

7. init = max / sum( m ^ ( 1 : n ) )
8. % fee loss = (1-(init * m ^ n * r - 0.0005)/(init * m ^ n * r)) * 100

then
m = 1.142857
init = 0.009241403
% fee loss = 0.04680618%
organofcorti
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September 03, 2012, 11:51:39 PM
 #36

If you don't mind, there is a maths issue that is killing me!
>> m = 1 / (1 - 1 / r)

For the formula is brackets, why is it 1-1? I'm thinking the final fraction gets transformed to r/(1-1) but I still don't get how m =1.142857

Cheers!



m = 1 / (1 - 1 / r) == 1 / (1 - (1 / r) )

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Lumpy
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September 04, 2012, 12:27:00 AM
 #37

If you don't mind, there is a maths issue that is killing me!
>> m = 1 / (1 - 1 / r)

For the formula is brackets, why is it 1-1? I'm thinking the final fraction gets transformed to r/(1-1) but I still don't get how m =1.142857

Cheers!



m = 1 / (1 - 1 / r) == 1 / (1 - (1 / r) )


Order of operations... Wink
Sovereign108
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September 04, 2012, 07:15:23 AM
 #38

Now I get it, that extra bracket makes all the difference! Yea, forgot about order of operations Smiley
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February 07, 2015, 02:29:47 AM
 #39

Did anyone ever code this up?
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February 07, 2015, 06:47:38 AM
 #40

I like your thinking OP. Refreshing to see some math in these gambling threads Tongue
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