Bryan Micon's List of BTC Ponzi Schemes that should not be listed as "Lending"

[aq]

You will be convinced when Pirateat40 closes his business. Until then, erf, have fun

I am really looking forward to all those long self-blaming threads. Hm, actually I think, they would still blame everybody else about the lost opportunity.

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[JoelKatz]

And why is it that you need to know everything that goes on with other peoples business?

I explained that in the very post that you are responding to. If I don't know how something could be possible, I can't consider that possibility. I wouldn't know what I'm considering. So if you think I need to consider some possibility, then you should also agree that I need to know how it could be possible.

Is it such a difficult concept to grasp that some people know some stuff you don't know and that they are not obliged to disclose their trade secrets to you?

No, I grasp that concept. Did you read the post you're responding to? It was explaining the consequences of the very thing that you claim I don't grasp.

[Raoul Duke]

And why is it that you need to know everything that goes on with other peoples business?

I explained that in the very post that you are responding to. If I don't know how something could be possible, I can't consider that possibility. I wouldn't know what I'm considering. So if you think I need to consider some possibility, then you should also agree that I need to know how it could be possible.

Is it such a difficult concept to grasp that some people know some stuff you don't know and that they are not obliged to disclose their trade secrets to you?

No, I grasp that concept. Did you read the post you're responding to? It was explaining the consequences of the very thing that you claim I don't grasp.

Do you also camp 24/7 on Coca-Cola's HQ's demanding their recipe so you can understand how it can be so delicious without using cocaine?

[JoelKatz]

Do you also camp 24/7 on Coca-Cola's HQ's demanding their recipe so you can understand how it can be so delicious without using cocaine?

Actually, I understand that. Vanilla, citrus oil, cinnamon extract, phosphoric acid, and tons of sugar. But if I didn't know that, ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Forty_Barrels_and_Twenty_Kegs_of_Coca-Cola

[Clipse]

Do you also camp 24/7 on Coca-Cola's HQ's demanding their recipe so you can understand how it can be so delicious without using cocaine?

Actually, I understand that. Vanilla, citrus oil, cinnamon extract, phosphoric acid, and tons of sugar. But if I didn't know that, ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Forty_Barrels_and_Twenty_Kegs_of_Coca-Cola

We know pirate@40 requires BTC as his ingredient but we dont know how he mixes it up to turn a profit. This would be similar to your own example of knowing the ingredients of coca-cola but having no clue how to mix it up correctly to form the coca-cola flavour.

As soon as pirate@40 adds caffeine to BTCST I will make sure he list it for all to see.

You are now comparing physical health factors(ingredients) with business related financial factors, does seem silly right ?

[mp420]

I think the main thing is, the economical niches that can be easily exploited to earn quick and high profit are almost always filled extremely fast. It's just like ecological niches, only much faster.

Let's consider the two main "business models" people tend to propose for Pirate:

If there's almost unlimited demand for bitcoins among millionaire investors (there's no proof of this at all by the way; if this were the case, BTC price would be much higher) someone else would beat Pirate by selling to them at a smaller premium. Pirate must overprice his service since he has to pay his astronomically high interest on his debt. There's only so much you can do to overprice your service just by having the right connections. Someone will have almost as good connections and will be getting a fiat loan as 3% or lower yearly rate to finance a pirate-like service and keep his fees at a small fraction of what Pirate must charge. So, Pirate will be driven out of the market very quickly, since he has voluntarily crippled himself by issuing so much ultra-high interest debt.

The second option: He's controlling the markets and earning super-high profits on market movements, since he can force others' hands by having larger volume than anyone else. Firstly, there's absolutely no evidence that this is happening and extensive evidence to the contrary. Secondly, in a highly artificially manipulated market like this, all other players will change their behaviour in order to not lose so much. Even if he can do the manipulation at high profit ratio for a short time, eventually his returns will dwindle towards nil.

So, it's utterly unbelievable that either of these is the case.

[Bitcoin Oz]

If a company like google was going to get into bitcoin they would need to secure a lot of coins and could afford to pay extra to avoid messing with the price too much.  They wouldnt want to signal their entrance into the market.

Where else are they going to go but pirate ?

[Clipse]

I think the main thing is, the economical niches that can be easily exploited to earn quick and high profit are almost always filled extremely fast. It's just like ecological niches, only much faster.

Let's consider the two main "business models" people tend to propose for Pirate:

If there's almost unlimited demand for bitcoins among millionaire investors (there's no proof of this at all by the way; if this were the case, BTC price would be much higher) someone else would beat Pirate by selling to them at a smaller premium. Pirate must overprice his service since he has to pay his astronomically high interest on his debt. There's only so much you can do to overprice your service just by having the right connections. Someone will have almost as good connections and will be getting a fiat loan as 3% or lower yearly rate to finance a pirate-like service and keep his fees at a small fraction of what Pirate must charge. So, Pirate will be driven out of the market very quickly, since he has voluntarily crippled himself by issuing so much ultra-high interest debt.

The second option: He's controlling the markets and earning super-high profits on market movements, since he can force others' hands by having larger volume than anyone else. Firstly, there's absolutely no evidence that this is happening and extensive evidence to the contrary. Secondly, in a highly artificially manipulated market like this, all other players will change their behaviour in order to not lose so much. Even if he can do the manipulation at high profit ratio for a short time, eventually his returns will dwindle towards nil.

So, it's utterly unbelievable that either of these is the case.

...or he simply functions as a massive ready to use mixer with a 10% fee. Let the speculation roll over.

[imsaguy]

The second option: He's controlling the markets and earning super-high profits on market movements, since he can force others' hands by having larger volume than anyone else. Firstly, there's absolutely no evidence that this is happening and extensive evidence to the contrary.

I guess you missed the day pirate was in IRC and the market was just so happening to do exactly what he would say would happen about a minute after he said it was going to do something.

[Clipse]

The second option: He's controlling the markets and earning super-high profits on market movements, since he can force others' hands by having larger volume than anyone else. Firstly, there's absolutely no evidence that this is happening and extensive evidence to the contrary.

I guess you missed the day pirate was in IRC and the market was just so happening to do exactly what he would say would happen about a minute after he said it was going to do something.

That has happened more than once in real time most of the time.

Nay-sayers then tried to draw a timeline that he simply had a lower delay socket open and relayed what others would only see later, pure hilarity since these same nay-sayers now assume that every single trader who was idling in #bitcoin and noticing it at the various times were in on agreeing pirate@40 made the moves.

mp420 care to provide the EXTENSIVE evidence that he isnt doing as quoted for option 2 ? Thumb sucking and making such claims doesnt count as evidence.

There is plenty of actual evidence suggesting pirate@40 have >500k BTC ready to use thanks to the BTCST setup, do you now claim that 500K+ isnt enough to move the market ?

[Bitcoin Oz]

Pirate has 51% attacked the market 

[mp420]

The second option: He's controlling the markets and earning super-high profits on market movements, since he can force others' hands by having larger volume than anyone else. Firstly, there's absolutely no evidence that this is happening and extensive evidence to the contrary.

I guess you missed the day pirate was in IRC and the market was just so happening to do exactly what he would say would happen about a minute after he said it was going to do something.

Just because he's done a few childish shows of his monetary might (where he actually lost money) does not mean he's earning high profits every day. To the contrary, as a matter of fact.

[JoelKatz]

I guess you missed the day pirate was in IRC and the market was just so happening to do exactly what he would say would happen about a minute after he said it was going to do something.

I am convinced that pirate holds enough BTC and USD to move the market significantly. I am not convinced that this can be a source of any more than a marginal amount of revenue. You take losses when you move the market, and even if the gains could exceed the losses (which they almost never do), you have to share them with everyone else trading.

[Bitcoin Oz]

I guess you missed the day pirate was in IRC and the market was just so happening to do exactly what he would say would happen about a minute after he said it was going to do something.

I am convinced that pirate holds enough BTC and USD to move the market significantly. I am not convinced that this can be a source of any more than a marginal amount of revenue. You take losses when you move the market, and even if the gains could exceed the losses (which they almost never do), you have to share them with everyone else trading.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornering_the_market

[imsaguy]

The second option: He's controlling the markets and earning super-high profits on market movements, since he can force others' hands by having larger volume than anyone else. Firstly, there's absolutely no evidence that this is happening and extensive evidence to the contrary.

I guess you missed the day pirate was in IRC and the market was just so happening to do exactly what he would say would happen about a minute after he said it was going to do something.

Just because he's done a few childish shows of his monetary might (where he actually lost money) does not mean he's earning high profits every day. To the contrary, as a matter of fact.

If this thing truly is "in its last two weeks" because he can no longer continue to payout interest, then how would he have enough coins to move the market like that?

[hgmichna]

If this thing truly is "in its last two weeks" because he can no longer continue to payout interest, then how would he have enough coins to move the market like that?

It seems he can no longer sustain a weekly 7% payout and is therefore trying to reduce his rates to 5%.

That would lose him the Vandroiy bet prematurely, but it does not matter to him when he loses it.

The interesting thing about a rate change is that it cuts both ways, as a lower rate also makes the "investments" somewhat less attractive, so some of his "investors" might withdraw. Therefore a rate change is a big gamble for him, but if he can't pay 7% any more, then he has no choice.

I would say it is another sign that the Ponzi scheme is nearing its end. It changes my admittedly rough estimate from months to weeks.

[Vladimir]

It is unravelling. Let me remind you that the smartest rats are those that jump the ship first.

Just like in that flick: "whoever talks first stays on the helicopter..." only "whoever jumps the ship first keeps his capital". Good luck.

[mp420]

Just because he's done a few childish shows of his monetary might (where he actually lost money) does not mean he's earning high profits every day. To the contrary, as a matter of fact.

If this thing truly is "in its last two weeks" because he can no longer continue to payout interest, then how would he have enough coins to move the market like that?

I never said his scheme is in its last two weeks. I assume he has hundreds of thousands of bitcoins, based on what others have estimated on this forum. If I were him, I'd have sold most of them already and converted them into something tangible (real estate in some hard-to-reach jurisdiction or something).

Actually, because he is the leading, most trusted bitcoin scammer, he might manage to keep his scheme going for several more months. Also, he just might have already decided that he lets the scheme run until its end, until he has no bitcoins at all left (I guess he's sold at least $500k worth already, and walking away with $500k might be profitable enough for him). With careful adjustments to the interest rate he might even be able to win his bet against Vandroiy, while still being a ponzi scammer.

[imsaguy]

while still being a ponzi scammer.

Until he defaults or doesn't live up to the terms of the arrangement, he isn't a scammer and has done nothing wrong.

[Clipse]

If I were him, I'd have sold most of them already and converted them into something tangible (real estate in some hard-to-reach jurisdiction or something).

Good to know, thanks for the heads up to never do business with you on this forum.

We all need good advice from criminal minded people like you.