[FINANCE] New global recession in 2015?

[unsoindovo]

Hi all.

i do some simplest search using google trends...

i have searched simple terms like:
crush 2015
recessio 2015
2015 dump
2015 collapse
and i can see they are all increasing in the end of 2014...

just a coincidence???
or not...

USA economy it at the max...
we are ready for a new global recession?
and the oil price, are suggesting us, exactly this??

and over all...
how bitcoin price will react??

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[OROBTC]

...

That is interesting.  Here is a link to "reccession, 2015" that I just ran, same kind of recent spike up:

http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=reccession%2C+2015#q=reccession%2C%202015&cmpt=q&tz=

*  *  *

On the other hand, interest in a specific time frame is going to skew the results.  Here is a link to "reccession, 2014":

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=reccession%2C%202014&cmpt=q&tz=

Note that the graph shows a LOT of interest back in 2014, not so much before or since.

*  *  *

"global economy" yields a declining interest over the past few years:

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=global%20economy

*  *  *

"measles":

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=measles

BIG spike in 2015!

*  *  *

"bitcoin":

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin



Disclosure: I cannot comment on the predictive power of Google Trends.  Predicting the future is hard, particularly since it has not happened yet.  Yogi Berra is purported to have said something like that, smile,,,

[unsoindovo]

...

That is interesting.  Here is a link to "reccession, 2015" that I just ran, same kind of recent spike up:

http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=reccession%2C+2015#q=reccession%2C%202015&cmpt=q&tz=

*  *  *

On the other hand, interest in a specific time frame is going to skew the results.  Here is a link to "reccession, 2014":

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=reccession%2C%202014&cmpt=q&tz=

Note that the graph shows a LOT of interest back in 2014, not so much before or since.

*  *  *

"global economy" yields a declining interest over the past few years:

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=global%20economy

*  *  *

"measles":

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=measles

BIG spike in 2015!

*  *  *

"bitcoin":

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin



Disclosure: I cannot comment on the predictive power of Google Trends.  Predicting the future is hard, particularly since it has not happened yet.  Yogi Berra is purported to have said something like that, smile,,,

i think that you are using trends in the wrong way...

you need to use the search engine joining the term recession and 2015...
or you will get a nonsense result .
of course, the google search who contains "2015" are more and more than the google search who contains "recession"
and it is correct who the search of the  term "2015" rise approaching 2015...

it is not the same if you search with the terms joined...

[OROBTC]

...

Yes, it could be that I am using Google Trends wrong.

"oil price" (as one term only) yields an interesting result:

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=oil%20price&cmpt=q&tz=

*  *  *

I wonder if searching on any of the leading economic indicators (much beloved on US economists)might yield results with some predictive power.

Interesting thread you started, unsoindovo.

[unsoindovo]

...

Yes, it could be that I am using Google Trends wrong.

"oil price" (as one term only) yields an interesting result:

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=oil%20price&cmpt=q&tz=

*  *  *

I wonder if searching on any of the leading economic indicators (much beloved on US economists)might yield results with some predictive power.

Interesting thread you started, unsoindovo.

thank OROBTC.

the correlation between google trend and oil price it is really impressive...

the 2 big movements of oil price was in 2008 and in 2014...
the same of the 2 peaks of google trends!!!

see below: impressive!!!

[Possum577]

...

That is interesting.  Here is a link to "reccession, 2015" that I just ran, same kind of recent spike up:

http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=reccession%2C+2015#q=reccession%2C%202015&cmpt=q&tz=

*  *  *

On the other hand, interest in a specific time frame is going to skew the results.  Here is a link to "reccession, 2014":

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=reccession%2C%202014&cmpt=q&tz=

Note that the graph shows a LOT of interest back in 2014, not so much before or since.

*  *  *

"global economy" yields a declining interest over the past few years:

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=global%20economy

*  *  *

"measles":

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=measles

BIG spike in 2015!

*  *  *

"bitcoin":

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin



Disclosure: I cannot comment on the predictive power of Google Trends.  Predicting the future is hard, particularly since it has not happened yet.  Yogi Berra is purported to have said something like that, smile,,,

This is a bullshit post. None of these trends are related to each other...why did you share them? Further, Google doesn't forecast the trend on the search for "bitcoin" so why the disclaimer?

This information is meaningless.

[Possum577]

...

Yes, it could be that I am using Google Trends wrong.

"oil price" (as one term only) yields an interesting result:

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=oil%20price&cmpt=q&tz=

*  *  *

I wonder if searching on any of the leading economic indicators (much beloved on US economists)might yield results with some predictive power.

Interesting thread you started, unsoindovo.

thank OROBTC.

the correlation between google trend and oil price it is really impressive...

the 2 big movements of oil price was in 2008 and in 2014...
the same of the 2 peaks of google trends!!!

see below: impressive!!!

So you impressed that when the price of oil has peaked there are more searches on Google about "oil"? Would this not be obvious? If a World War started today and Google searches peaked for "war" tomorrow would you also be surprised?

Google Trends is a cool tool but you need to cross reference two seemingly mutually exclusive terms to see if there might be a similar trend. From there you'd have to do more analysis to see if the similar trend is causal or even correlated between the two terms.

None of these examples do this...you all are just posting trends on a single term that has no direct link to bitcoin.

Guys, what am I missing from your posts? Correct me if I'm wrong here...

[Possum577]

An interesting Google trends search we could do this week would be to see if "bitcoin" is searched more after CNN's Morgan Spurlock Inside Man episode airing this Thursday. If we see a spike on Thursday or Friday we could conclude that the CNN piece helped increase interest in Bitcoin among the masses.

[OROBTC]

...

Possum577

OP raised some ideas that were interesting to me.  Google Trends is something I have only slightly played with.  I made my observations about "other" key words because they were interesting.

I will not speak for others, but I am just learning the tool, to see what it may/may not be able to do for me.  There has been talk (in completely different fora) that in some cases Google Trends spots things of great interest.

Leading economic indicators, for example, have a slight predictive power.  If these indicators were to appear via Google word searches, there might be little gems that could be found...

[Q7]

At its current condition with bitcoin, an economic collapse would not make much of a difference. Problem is people have yet to accept bitcoin as a safe haven for storage of wealth. All the negative press about security hacking, fluctuation of coin value unfortunately to the downside, limited use of the coin will mean a long way to go to convince people to buy the coin even if there is a collapse

[unsoindovo]

...

That is interesting.  Here is a link to "reccession, 2015" that I just ran, same kind of recent spike up:

http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=reccession%2C+2015#q=reccession%2C%202015&cmpt=q&tz=

*  *  *

On the other hand, interest in a specific time frame is going to skew the results.  Here is a link to "reccession, 2014":

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=reccession%2C%202014&cmpt=q&tz=

Note that the graph shows a LOT of interest back in 2014, not so much before or since.

*  *  *

"global economy" yields a declining interest over the past few years:

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=global%20economy

*  *  *

"measles":

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=measles

BIG spike in 2015!

*  *  *

"bitcoin":

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin



Disclosure: I cannot comment on the predictive power of Google Trends.  Predicting the future is hard, particularly since it has not happened yet.  Yogi Berra is purported to have said something like that, smile,,,

This is a bullshit post. None of these trends are related to each other...why did you share them? Further, Google doesn't forecast the trend on the search for "bitcoin" so why the disclaimer?

This information is meaningless.

hi Possum577!!!

you are wellcome!!!

I felt the lack of a lord!!!

 

[MamaGoose]

...

Yes, it could be that I am using Google Trends wrong.

"oil price" (as one term only) yields an interesting result:

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=oil%20price&cmpt=q&tz=

*  *  *

I wonder if searching on any of the leading economic indicators (much beloved on US economists)might yield results with some predictive power.

Interesting thread you started, unsoindovo.

hi orobtc...

this is the right google trend search

http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=reccession%2C+2015#q=recession%2C%20oil%20price&cmpt=q&tz=

can you see the correlation???

have fun!!