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 Author Topic: Bitcoin Double - Betting game with faster payouts.  (Read 3797 times)
TTBit
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 June 02, 2011, 03:14:16 AM

First, thanks for offering this game.  I've enjoyed playing it the couple times that I've given it a try and I've enjoyed the minuscule payouts that I've received made.  In fact, I'm going to go ahead and share my strategy but, be forewarned, you may want to modify your service to prevent this type of statistical "abuse".  If enough people (with enough bank roll) played this strategy, you could end up losing a lot of coin.

One quick note, I'm not sure what this strategy is called but I do know if you are caught using it in a near 50/50 chance game  like Blackjack in Vegas, they'll kick you out and never let you back in (or so I've heard.)

Here's how it works.  Each turn, bet a minimum bid that is significantly less than your available bank roll.  If you loose, take the sum of all your losses and double it for your next bet.  I see that with bitcoindouble.com, you can bet a minimum of .01BTC.  The betting progression could therefore follow .01, .02, .06 ((.01 +.02) *2), .18, .54, 1.62, 4.86, 14.58... Well, you get the picture.  The odds are exceptionally low that you will lose the game 4, 5, 6... 10... times in a row.  Following the double-your-loses progression will yield a payout average of 33% of all lost bets once you finally break a losing streak (well, it's better than that if you win on the first or second round.)

Starting out at .01 won't accumulate much but .10 or even 1.00BTC as an initial bet can yield significant returns with enough game play, assuming you have the freedom to set your bet.

I played your game a couple nights ago and at that time you allowed betters to specify any bet between .01 and 100 BTC.  After a few rounds, I managed to cash out with  a profit of around .30BTC.  I know, not much, but I don't have that many BTC so I was starting at the .01btc as my initial bid for each streak.  I did manage to get a total gain of 1.5, or so, before I managed to get into a loosing streak that was a bit over my head (Eek, I was down about 2 BTC!) After I won, I played a few more rounds of my strategy and cashed out while I was ahead.

Today, I logged into your site and I noticed that you had changed the betting system to a series of 8, fixed bets.  This is a fair house improvement but someone can still implement my strategy... sort of... and clear out your coffers.

Significant payout could still be achieved if a player bets the minimum bid, and if the lose simply bet the next highest bid increment that you offer assuming, they had the bank role.  I don't have that kind of cash, so I, personally, wouldn't even try.  It is worth mentioning that if a player had a horrendous loosing streak, and lost, say, 7 or 8 times in a row, they'd call you a cheater!  Just kidding, they would lose their entire betting "investment"  for that round of bets because they can't double their bet after the eighth bet.  This is the key to protecting your house balance.

If you are worried about someone sweeping in and cleaning you out what you can do to fix the problem is lower the maximum bid (or raise the minimum bid) so that there isn't a wide swing of betting options.  I, personally wouldn't offer bets above 5 BTC.  Also, I would offer only 3 or 4 betting tiers (maybe .05, .5, 1 and 5.)  There is only 7.3% chance that someone will make it to a fourth round and lose-- 3.8% chance that they will make it to a 5 round and lose.

Players who know their statistics would know that after multiple rounds their strategy would break down under such constraints, and they would avoid playing this method all together.

I hope that helps.  It never hurts to double-check your statistics when playing a game a chance... even if you're the house.

Peace.

So if I keep pyramiding bad bets, eventually it will be a good bet. Genius.

good judgment comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgment
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eturnerx
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 June 02, 2011, 03:58:29 AM

One quick note, I'm not sure what this strategy is called but I do know if you are caught using it in a near 50/50 chance game  like Blackjack in Vegas, they'll kick you out and never let you back in (or so I've heard.)
It's called the Martingale system. Most casinoes won't kick you out for using a pure Martingale since because they'll win so much from you. Basically every table game has a limit, usually about 20x the minimum bet. This means that after 4 losing bets in a row you can no longer double the bet and the Martingale no longer works.
Mathematically pure 50/50 Martingale is about who has the deepest pockets. Table limits artificially limit the depth of the punter's pocket. Oh, and no casino game is 50/50 - though blackjack is close at around 48.5%
Alex Beckenham
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 June 02, 2011, 06:06:14 AM

It never hurts to double-check your statistics when playing a game a chance... even if you're the house.

tl;dr (yet) but in the time I've had the site open there's been about 5000 plays, which has resulted in a profit for me of around 6 BTC or so (a few bitcents each day). I haven't checked the statistic thoroughly, but I do keep an eye on how much goes out/in each day, thanks.

jibjabz
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 June 02, 2011, 06:24:00 AM

rlh, this is the Martingale system. It doesn't work. It's in violation of how math works. You're trading lots of tiny wins for the occasional huge loss.

No combination of losing bets will make a winning bet if each individual bet is a losing bet.

Haven't read exactly what he says here but the Wiz is very smart and addresses the Martingale a little bit down on this page http://www.wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html

Don't go broke while you're out having fun. Check out Coin Watcher (http://coinwatcheralerts.blogspot.com/).

IIOII
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 June 02, 2011, 08:16:06 AM

I think this just can not work consistently, because the probability for each bet remains the same (e.g. is independent of the number of bets made).

rlh
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 June 02, 2011, 11:24:11 AM

First, the probability of each bet does remain the same and, yes, this system is quite limited because no one can make any bet they choose, nor do they an 'infinite' budget.  With enough series of games played, eventually you will reach that killer streak that will break your bank.

However, if you have enough money to, say, play 8 betting rounds, you could make a personal rule that you will call it quits, if you ever reach a streak of 5.  This means that once you lose 4 times, you will keep playing as much as four more rounds until you win.  With 50/50 odds, there is a 1 in 16 chance that you will win within 4 rounds.  You could win on the 5, 6, 7 or even dangerously on the 8.  1 in 16 that you will eventually win isn't exceptional, but if you've-predetermined your limits, you're turning the table in odds to be in your favor.

Furthermore, I'd just like to say, this isn't a good investment strategy.  I'd call it a fun and, possibly, profitable gambling strategy.  You could play it and win BIG if you keep your cool.  Also, I know black jack isn't a 50/50 game but it's close.  I think Baccarat is purely 50/50 with the right strategy, but I'm not sure.  I've never played.  Tables in casinos may have maximum bets,  but what's to keep you from getting up and moving to a "high rollers" table so that you can continue your beautiful losing streak.

A Personal Quote on BTT from 2011:
"I'd be willing to make a moderate "investment" if the value of the BTC went below \$2.00.  Otherwise I'll just have to live with my 5 BTC and be happy. :/"  ...sigh.  If only I knew.
Alex Beckenham
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 June 02, 2011, 11:26:26 AM

what's to keep you from getting up and moving to a "high rollers" table so that you can continue your beautiful losing streak.

There's usually a large jump between the maximum at the low-value tables, and the minimum at the high-value tables.

krepta3000
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 June 28, 2011, 04:00:23 AM

Do you ever plan to implement proof that your games are fair?

Sure if there is demand. You're only the 2nd person that's ever asked me. I put my time so far into getting it just to work.

Bitcoin Darts has proof that it's fair, so it mustn't be that hard to implement.  As for working, Ha, it's not working at all for me with Chrome.  I can't register, or log in.  I'm giving up till it works.
Alex Beckenham
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 June 28, 2011, 04:02:25 AM

Do you ever plan to implement proof that your games are fair?

Sure if there is demand. You're only the 2nd person that's ever asked me. I put my time so far into getting it just to work.

Bitcoin Darts has proof that it's fair, so it mustn't be that hard to implement.  As for working, Ha, it's not working at all for me with Chrome.  I can't register, or log in.  I'm giving up till it works.

What's happening when you try to register or log in? It should take you to Bitcoin Balance.

The bitcoin daemon is up and running, and everything appears normal... let me know how I can help 'fix' whatever issue you're having.

By the way, I use Chrome almost exclusively, and it's always number 1 on the list when I'm testing sites.

krepta3000
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 June 29, 2011, 07:51:53 PM

Nothing happens.  Nothing at all, no error code, no next page of any kind.  I fill out the things to register, I click register, and all the stuff I filled in just vanishes and I'm just on the same page, no change at all.  Nothing Happens.  I wish I could figure it out from here.
Alex Beckenham
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 June 30, 2011, 01:07:48 AM

Nothing happens.  Nothing at all, no error code, no next page of any kind.  I fill out the things to register, I click register, and all the stuff I filled in just vanishes and I'm just on the same page, no change at all.  Nothing Happens.  I wish I could figure it out from here.

Sorry, it appears a case of the error message not being displayed.

It's fixed now, so it should at least tell you what's wrong with your input.

Thanks.

krepta3000
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 June 30, 2011, 06:21:15 PM

Ok, it's saying invalid email address, even though it IS a valid email address.  Go on, try sending an email to krepta3000+validemail@gmail.com.  I know for a fact that this is a valid email address format, the plus sign is not rejected by gmail, it's in fact a Feature.  A feature I like using now that I know about it.
sethmo
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 July 04, 2011, 02:53:17 AM

I made two deposits today and they both showed up after 1 confirmation, the third time I made a deposit, I got nothing in my account.  The deposit now has 4 confirmations.  Any help?
Alex Beckenham
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 July 04, 2011, 03:29:06 AM

I made two deposits today and they both showed up after 1 confirmation, the third time I made a deposit, I got nothing in my account.  The deposit now has 4 confirmations.  Any help?

Of course, but you'll have to give me a whole lot more detail... by PM if you wish... let me know your username and/or deposit address.

sethmo
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 July 04, 2011, 04:07:40 AM

I made two deposits today and they both showed up after 1 confirmation, the third time I made a deposit, I got nothing in my account.  The deposit now has 4 confirmations.  Any help?

Of course, but you'll have to give me a whole lot more detail... by PM if you wish... let me know your username and/or deposit address.

Thanks.  "Issue" resolved
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