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Author Topic: Third Auction For Ulbricht’s Coins, Scheduled  (Read 2730 times)
vennali
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February 27, 2015, 04:39:54 PM
 #21

This is going to crash the price hard...

Hopefully not..lets see how it effects the price.!
The only reason it will effect the price is if the people holding the coins decide to sell it. And I doubt they would participate in the auction just to sell it.

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February 28, 2015, 09:58:11 AM
 #22

I think it will have a decreasing effect on the short-term price, because auctions are mainly used to clear assets ASAP, therefore the auctioneers would probably be willing to sacrifice some return for expediency in sales.

In the long-term however, it should make the price go up (IMO) because the Bitcoin auctioned off will have been accounted for and therefore represent a portion of the currency that was once used for illicitly perceived purposes which is now "cleansed" or at least marketed with the blessing of regulating and law making authorities. Psychology does play an important part in market behavior, so this is the reason for my belief.

I obviously could be wrong due to the simplistic reasoning, but if anyone disagrees or would like to add onto the opinion I'm definitely open to being proved wrong.
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February 28, 2015, 10:10:57 AM
 #23

In the long-term however, it should make the price go up (IMO) because the Bitcoin auctioned off will have been accounted for and therefore represent a portion of the currency that was once used for illicitly perceived purposes which is now "cleansed" or at least marketed with the blessing of regulating and law making authorities. Psychology does play an important part in market behavior, so this is the reason for my belief.

I obviously could be wrong due to the simplistic reasoning, but if anyone disagrees or would like to add onto the opinion I'm definitely open to being proved wrong.

The clearance of the overhang is good. However, the 50,000 is too small size for the long term price of BTC.
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February 28, 2015, 10:12:47 AM
 #24

I think it will have a decreasing effect on the short-term price, because auctions are mainly used to clear assets ASAP, therefore the auctioneers would probably be willing to sacrifice some return for expediency in sales.

In the long-term however, it should make the price go up (IMO) because the Bitcoin auctioned off will have been accounted for and therefore represent a portion of the currency that was once used for illicitly perceived purposes which is now "cleansed" or at least marketed with the blessing of regulating and law making authorities. Psychology does play an important part in market behavior, so this is the reason for my belief.

I obviously could be wrong due to the simplistic reasoning, but if anyone disagrees or would like to add onto the opinion I'm definitely open to being proved wrong.

I agree, that will work more towards psychological effect rather than having an fundamental implications. In the long run, provided that the auctioned off coins stay put and remain in the winners possession and does not get introduced back to the market, it should be positive overall. Unless the person has another plan and decides otherwise to auction off the coins and take profit once the price has hit his target level.

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March 01, 2015, 06:12:43 AM
 #25

With the auction of his bitcoin coming:
http://bitforum.info/t/third-auction-for-ulbrichts-coins-scheduled/305

Do you think, Ulbricht can easily get back his coins if he is still running Silk Road right now?

I mean if he will be released right now, and start from the scratch again, how many years will it take to reach the amount of the coins he lost?



How much more btc does ulbricht have on his account?
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March 01, 2015, 12:29:02 PM
 #26

With the auction of his bitcoin coming:
http://bitforum.info/t/third-auction-for-ulbrichts-coins-scheduled/305

Do you think, Ulbricht can easily get back his coins if he is still running Silk Road right now?

I mean if he will be released right now, and start from the scratch again, how many years will it take to reach the amount of the coins he lost?



How much more btc does ulbricht have on his account?

Nobody knows how much he has in his paper wallets or hidden wallets. But he had 150 thousand, on his system which is being auctioned.

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March 03, 2015, 04:16:12 PM
 #27

With the auction of his bitcoin coming:
http://bitforum.info/t/third-auction-for-ulbrichts-coins-scheduled/305

Do you think, Ulbricht can easily get back his coins if he is still running Silk Road right now?

I mean if he will be released right now, and start from the scratch again, how many years will it take to reach the amount of the coins he lost?



Is the present surge because of this?
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March 03, 2015, 06:31:53 PM
 #28

With the auction of his bitcoin coming:
http://bitforum.info/t/third-auction-for-ulbrichts-coins-scheduled/305

Do you think, Ulbricht can easily get back his coins if he is still running Silk Road right now?

I mean if he will be released right now, and start from the scratch again, how many years will it take to reach the amount of the coins he lost?



Is the present surge because of this?

That is not beyond the realm of possibility imo but not sure it would be because of this, they stole the coin in the first place not sure they care about the price difference of a few dollars.

To answer about Ulbricht i am not sure he would easily get them back but in the end if he was doing what he done first time around with better security procedures then i see no reason why he would not make a large amount of them back.

What would be the point though he was to greedy and could not leave with tens of millions the btc was wasted on him. 
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March 03, 2015, 08:00:35 PM
 #29

With the auction of his bitcoin coming:
http://bitforum.info/t/third-auction-for-ulbrichts-coins-scheduled/305

Do you think, Ulbricht can easily get back his coins if he is still running Silk Road right now?

I mean if he will be released right now, and start from the scratch again, how many years will it take to reach the amount of the coins he lost?



Is the present surge because of this?
I would say probably not. I would say that the present surge is likey due to the WSJ article discussing the potential for bitcoin (which happens to be on the front page).

Generally speaking the price of bitcoin tends to fall ahead of these auctions because of the fact that additional supply will soon enter into the market that was not previously there
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March 03, 2015, 08:07:46 PM
 #30

This is going to crash the price hard...

It had negligible effects last time. The first auction certainly caused some willies but ultimately turned out to be a non event. The market has gotten used to the idea now.

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March 03, 2015, 08:11:48 PM
 #31

This is going to crash the price hard...

It had negligible effects last time. The first auction certainly caused some willies but ultimately turned out to be a non event. The market has gotten used to the idea now.

Agree there is no crash coming because of the auction, the auctioned coins will be sold to exchange or a investor who is not in it for a quick few dollars profit but looking long term.
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March 03, 2015, 08:30:19 PM
 #32

It would take quite awhile for him to recover those coins I think.

Same opinion doing it legit would be a challenge for Ross
Two days till March 5th will need to keep track
The auction will happen from 8am to 2pm EST, and preregistration is needed for those who want to participate. Just like the 1st and 2nd auction, bitcoins will be auctioned per 2000 or 3000 block.
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March 03, 2015, 08:40:58 PM
 #33

This is going to crash the price hard...
Oh, I'm not so sure. That has not been the pattern with other sales. It does make sense because you are increasing supply, however it may be that the buyers at the auction are different than exchange buyers. I think these auctions appeal to a buyer who wants a lot of coins and has no patients for the risk and complexity of exchanges.

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March 03, 2015, 09:40:35 PM
 #34

If anyone has already put a bid in for the auction. It's probably well below the current market price ($289), given the $50 price rise over e past few days.
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March 04, 2015, 03:06:35 AM
 #35

If anyone has already put a bid in for the auction. It's probably well below the current market price ($289), given the $50 price rise over e past few days.

The last time they got dozens of bids. So this time also we can expect similar numbers. It is impossible to predict the selling price. But if there are a dozen or so bidders, then we can safely assume that these coins will be sold at a premium.

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March 04, 2015, 03:15:18 AM
 #36

I wonder who the average business person that would be bidding on this much BTC would be.  Like, would they be day trading, annalists, etc?

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March 04, 2015, 04:11:14 AM
 #37

No, this can't possibly crash the price lol .. the market has already factored these coins into circulation

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March 04, 2015, 10:18:44 AM
 #38

I seem to remember the price fell after every other US Marchall auction.
Also, if anyone announces that they got coins below market value, that will make the price decrease, in fear of a dump.
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March 04, 2015, 10:37:45 AM
 #39

I do not think a crash is coming. Looking at price history. Auctions only has short term effects on price. Not influential to the big picture.

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March 04, 2015, 10:38:55 AM
 #40

I do not think a crash is coming. Looking at price history. Auctions only has short term effects on price. Not influential to the big picture.

The size of the auctioned coins is too small compared to existing coins.
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