Feb 22 to March 9 diff thread with contest included.

[jmumich]

I'll take the wildcard: 0.00 to +0.25%

If I understand  the rules you just get 0.00.

the .01 - +0.25 is not part of the guess.

I'm assuming then that -0.01 to -0.25 is a proper guess? If so I'll take that if it's available.

[1715064040]

1715064040

[1715064040]

1715064040

[philipma1957]

One needs to be corrected.



tss               has          +4.80 to +5.05    this need a correction 

as both +4.76 to +5.00 and +5.01 to +5.25

have been picked before you picked.  maybe +5.26 to +5.50?


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I think all of the below are good
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philipma1957  has  -1.25   to    -1.01

Kexkey  has            +2.01 to   +2.25

tlhIlwI  has             +3.76 to  + 4.00

SimplisticStu has    +3.01 to  +3.25

Quickseller has        +4.76 to  + 5.00

TheAnalogKid has     -3.25 to   -3.01         Corrected  from (-3.0 to -3.25)

RedhatCat  has         +5.01  to   +5.25     

ScryptAsic has          +2.26 to + 2.50

Biodom      Has         +3.26  to +3.50

tertious993   has      +6.26 to +6.50

Herbpean     has       +4.01 to +4.25     

Jamphone   has          +0.01 to +0.25

buyandhold   has         +2.51 to +2.75 

armedmilitia     has       +4.51 to +4.75

mavericklm     has        +4.26 to +4.50

ezeminer         has        +7.76 to 8.00     corrected from    (+7.75 to +8.00)

RoadStress     has           -1.50 to - 1.75

davejh           has             -2.26 to  -2.50

Swordsoffreedom  has      +2.76 to +3.00    corrected from +2.75 to +3.00

DivineEruptus     has       +19.76 to +20.00  confirmed

zebedee           has          +5.51% to +5.75%

tarmi             has            - 2.25 to - 2.01

jmumich       has         -0.01 to -0.25       

[notlist3d]

+6.51 to +6.7 please as my  guess

[philipma1957]

+6.51 to +6.7 please as my  guess

+6.51 to +6.75 will enter it.

[suchmoon]

Thank you philipma1957 for keeping track of this. Here is the current "official" list, sorted by the diff. Please everyone review your entries and let me know if you find anything that's missing or incorrect.

--- anything starting with -3.26% and below is still available
TheAnalogKid -3.01 to -3.25%
--- -2.51 to -2.75% and -2.76 to -3.00% are still available
davejh -2.26 to -2.50%
tarmi -2.01 to -2.25%
--- -1.76 to -2.00% is still available
RoadStress -1.51% to -1.75%
--- -1.26 to -1.50% is still available
philipma1957 -1.01 to -1.25%
--- -0.26 to -0.50% and  -0.51% to -0.75% and -0.76 to -1.00% are still available
jmumich -0.01 to -0.25%
--- 0.00% is still available - DOUBLE REWARD!
Jamphone +0.01 to +0.25%
--- +0.26% to +2.00% are still available (7 intervals)
Kexkey +2.01 to +2.25%
ScryptAsic +2.26 to +2.50%
buyandhold +2.51 to +2.75%
Swordsoffreedom +2.76 to +3.00%
SimplisticStu +3.01 to +3.25%
Biodom +3.26 to +3.50%
--- +3.51% to +3.75% is still available
tlhIlwI +3.76 to +4.00%
HerbPean +4.01 to +4.25%
mavericklm +4.26 to +4.50%
armedmilitia +4.51 to +4.75%
Quickseller +4.76 to +5.00%
RedhatCAT +5.01 to +5.25%
Ume +5.26% to +5.50%
zebedee +5.51 to +5.75%
--- +5.76% to +6.00% and +6.01% to +6.25% are still available
tertius993 +6.26 to +6.50%
notlist3d +6.51 to +6.75%
--- +6.76% to +7.75% are still available (4 intervals)
ezeminer +7.76 to +8.00%
--- +8.01% to +19.75% are still available (a huge number of intervals, I'm to lazy to count them)
DivineEruptus +19.76 to +20.00%
--- +20.01% and above are all still available


There is one entry that needs to be corrected - it spans two intervals and both were taken at the time that post was made, so I can't make any assumptions here:
tss +4.8 to +5.05

[Kexkey]

It's still early to tell but I feel like there will be a decreasing difficulty next time.  I think there will be a lot of changes in predictions before the deadline...

[valkir]

I will try -0.76 to -1.00%

Thanks!

[Window2Wall]

My guess is -2.51 to -2.75%

Lets see how this goes

[wayneyoyo]

It's still early to tell but I feel like there will be a decreasing difficulty next time.  I think there will be a lot of changes in predictions before the deadline...

I don't think there will be very much room for changes. There are too few spots available within a reasonable range for it to make sense for someone to give up their spot.

My guess is -3.26% to - 4.00%

[philipma1957]

It's still early to tell but I feel like there will be a decreasing difficulty next time.  I think there will be a lot of changes in predictions before the deadline...

I don't think there will be very much room for changes. There are too few spots available within a reasonable range for it to make sense for someone to give up their spot.

My guess is -3.26% to - 4.00%

I think you want -3.26% to -3.50%  

the max pick is only a  0.25 wide spread

so -3.26% to -3.50%  =   a 0.25  wide spread

[jmumich]

--- +0.26% to +2.00% are still available (7 intervals)

This is really surprising.

[wayneyoyo]

It's still early to tell but I feel like there will be a decreasing difficulty next time.  I think there will be a lot of changes in predictions before the deadline...

I don't think there will be very much room for changes. There are too few spots available within a reasonable range for it to make sense for someone to give up their spot.

My guess is -3.26% to - 4.00%

I think you want -3.26% to -3.50%  

the max pick is only a  0.25 wide spread

so -3.26% to -3.50%  =   a 0.25  wide spread

yup, you are right, it is very late

My guess is -3.26 to - 3.50%

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

has big drops so far.

feb 22  155 blocks    bridges both  diff adj
feb 23  142 blocks     2 under 144 norm
feb 24  128 blocks     16 under



May see more drops


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,684,376,317
Estimated Next Difficulty:   48,863,011,820 (+4.67%) -----  this is high as of today
Adjust time:   After 1715 Blocks, About 11.9 days
Hashrate(?):   320,009,031 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes------------------------  This is 0%
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.8 minutes
Updated:   0:30 (2.4 minutes ago)

[SunnyIgor]

+1,5 ---- +1,75

if available this will be my guess

[Kexkey]

It's still early to tell but I feel like there will be a decreasing difficulty next time.  I think there will be a lot of changes in predictions before the deadline...

I don't think there will be very much room for changes. There are too few spots available within a reasonable range for it to make sense for someone to give up their spot.

My guess is -3.26% to - 4.00%

True, I was forgetting about that.  People might start selling their spot and a new suchmoon-philipma-diff-contest-spot-marketplace would be born... Result of spot scarcity... Wow, what a vision I just got.  

[wayneyoyo]

It's still early to tell but I feel like there will be a decreasing difficulty next time.  I think there will be a lot of changes in predictions before the deadline...

I don't think there will be very much room for changes. There are too few spots available within a reasonable range for it to make sense for someone to give up their spot.

My guess is -3.26% to - 4.00%

True, I was forgetting about that.  People might start selling their spot and a new suchmoon-philipma-diff-contest-spot-marketplace would be born... Result of spot scarcity... Wow, what a vision I just got.   

I don't see spots being worth that much. The spots only have a small range and even with under a day left it will be difficult to know with any good level of certainty that any particular spot will win.

It is a free market though and there is no reason not to embrace a free market if one develops.

[Korbman]

Assuming it's still available, I'll take the +3.51% to +3.75% slot.

This is sort of an interesting change, though I'm not sure I like it. It feels more constricting since I can't select the number I like because it's in a range taken by someone else, so a speedy reply is more of a factor now than it was before. Posting another guess as the closing date draws closer is also limited, since it's likely the range will already be taken.

[philipma1957]

Assuming it's still available, I'll take the +3.51% to +3.75% slot.

This is sort of an interesting change, though I'm not sure I like it. It feels more constricting since I can't select the number I like because it's in a range taken by someone else, so a speedy reply is more of a factor now than it was before. Posting another guess as the closing date draws closer is also limited, since it's likely the range will already be taken.

yeah that is the down side.  upside is no ties.   and no surrounding a pick.

Ie.  I pick   -1.11%    and seriouscoin picks   -1.12%   then using another name from his work pc he picks -1.10%    thus surrounding my pick of -1.11%  making me a sure loser.

(well almost sure) .

Now I am in a range of -1.01% to -1.25 %   thus a full surrounding is not possible.

[A4Tech]

+3.51 to + 3.75

[ezeminer]

+3.51 to + 3.75

A4 you might want another number since that one has been claimed.

Assuming it's still available, I'll take the +3.51% to +3.75% slot.

This is sort of an interesting change, though I'm not sure I like it. It feels more constricting since I can't select the number I like because it's in a range taken by someone else, so a speedy reply is more of a factor now than it was before. Posting another guess as the closing date draws closer is also limited, since it's likely the range will already be taken.