Question about statistics

[Bardman]

Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50%

Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss?

[1713563266]

1713563266

[1713563266]

1713563266

[1713563266]

1713563266

[1713563266]

1713563266

[1713563266]

1713563266

[WEBcreator]

Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50%

Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss?

no it doesnt

gambling is about luck you could always hit a losing streak no matter what your calculation is, thats the beauty of owning a gambling sites i guess lol 

[dbshck]

Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50%

Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss?

No, the next bet chances are still 50%. You will either win or loss that bet. I've heard some crazy losing streak on dice site like Primedice, so even though the chances of loss streak are 1 in a trillion, it might still happen.

[Bardman]

Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50%

Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss?

No, the next bet chances are still 50%. You will either win or loss that bet. I've heard some crazy losing streak on dice site like Primedice, so even though the chances of loss streak are 1 in a trillion, it might still happen.

You say the next bet chances are 50% but then you say they are 1 in a trillion

[WEBcreator]

Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50%

Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss?

No, the next bet chances are still 50%. You will either win or loss that bet. I've heard some crazy losing streak on dice site like Primedice, so even though the chances of loss streak are 1 in a trillion, it might still happen.

You say the next bet chances are 50% but then you say they are 1 in a trillion

he is saying that it is all luck, you know with 1% of losing chance you can even score up to 5x lose streak if you are pretty badluck 

[dbshck]

Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50%

Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss?

No, the next bet chances are still 50%. You will either win or loss that bet. I've heard some crazy losing streak on dice site like Primedice, so even though the chances of loss streak are 1 in a trillion, it might still happen.

You say the next bet chances are 50% but then you say they are 1 in a trillion

I mean in a single bet. Even though you have 10 losses before, the chances for the next bet is still 50%.

[Bardman]

Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50%

Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss?

No, the next bet chances are still 50%. You will either win or loss that bet. I've heard some crazy losing streak on dice site like Primedice, so even though the chances of loss streak are 1 in a trillion, it might still happen.

You say the next bet chances are 50% but then you say they are 1 in a trillion

I mean in a single bet. Even though you have 10 losses before, the chances for the next bet is still 50%.

How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50%

[NUFCrichard]

Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50%

Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss?

No but human nature will keep you betting until you win.  That's why casinos show the results of the last spins on Roulette, even though they are utterly pointless.
You have to think logically about it, what about the last spin/roll would affect the next spin/roll... nothing

[NUFCrichard]

Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50%

Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss?

No, the next bet chances are still 50%. You will either win or loss that bet. I've heard some crazy losing streak on dice site like Primedice, so even though the chances of loss streak are 1 in a trillion, it might still happen.

You say the next bet chances are 50% but then you say they are 1 in a trillion

I mean in a single bet. Even though you have 10 losses before, the chances for the next bet is still 50%.

How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50%

2³⁰ gives you the chances of 30 consecutive losses. So it is 1073741824:1 about a billion to one against. 

[XinXan]

Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50%

Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss?

No, the next bet chances are still 50%. You will either win or loss that bet. I've heard some crazy losing streak on dice site like Primedice, so even though the chances of loss streak are 1 in a trillion, it might still happen.

You say the next bet chances are 50% but then you say they are 1 in a trillion

I mean in a single bet. Even though you have 10 losses before, the chances for the next bet is still 50%.

How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50%

2³⁰ gives you the chances of 30 consecutive losses. So it is 1073741824:1 about a billion to one against. 

So it is better to wait to lose 10 times and bet after or it doesnt matter

[dbshck]

How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50%

2³⁰ gives you the chances of 30 consecutive losses. So it is 1073741824:1 about a billion to one against.  

So it is better to wait to lose 10 times and bet after or it doesnt matter

It doesn't matter, in fact, it doesn't affect anything. The "lucky numbers" doesn't affected by your previous games.

[Bardman]

How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50%

2³⁰ gives you the chances of 30 consecutive losses. So it is 1073741824:1 about a billion to one against.  

So it is better to wait to lose 10 times and bet after or it doesnt matter

It doesn't matter, in fact, it doesn't affect anything. The "lucky numbers" doesn't affected by your previous games.

I still dont get it, if it means you are unlucky means that there are more chances of winning the next bet.

[NUFCrichard]

Well lets say i go to a dice site that has no house edge and i start betting on 50%

Now the chances of loosing once are 50% and the chances of loosing twice are 25% and so on. So im betting 1 satoshi per bet and i lose 10 times in a row does that mean that the next bet has more chances of winning than the first bet that i made before the 10th loss?

No, the next bet chances are still 50%. You will either win or loss that bet. I've heard some crazy losing streak on dice site like Primedice, so even though the chances of loss streak are 1 in a trillion, it might still happen.

You say the next bet chances are 50% but then you say they are 1 in a trillion

I mean in a single bet. Even though you have 10 losses before, the chances for the next bet is still 50%.

How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50%

2³⁰ gives you the chances of 30 consecutive losses. So it is 1073741824:1 about a billion to one against. 

So it is better to wait to lose 10 times and bet after or it doesnt matter

It absolutely does not matter - the chances of 10 losses in a row are 1024, the chances of 11 losses are 2048.  The chance difference for each roll, in advance of the first roll, is ever increasing, but after the 10th consecutive losing roll the chance of the next is still 2¹. i.e. 50:50

[cazkooo]

How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50%

2³⁰ gives you the chances of 30 consecutive losses. So it is 1073741824:1 about a billion to one against.  

So it is better to wait to lose 10 times and bet after or it doesnt matter

It doesn't matter, in fact, it doesn't affect anything. The "lucky numbers" doesn't affected by your previous games.

it doesnt matter, it is just a calculation of the probabilty numbers which in fact may or may not happens because there is always a factor that is call luck

[Bardman]

How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50%

2³⁰ gives you the chances of 30 consecutive losses. So it is 1073741824:1 about a billion to one against.  

So it is better to wait to lose 10 times and bet after or it doesnt matter

It doesn't matter, in fact, it doesn't affect anything. The "lucky numbers" doesn't affected by your previous games.

it doesnt matter, it is just a calculation of the probabilty numbers which in fact may or may not happens because there is always a factor that is call luck

Ofc may not happen but if you get the possibility of betting at 80% or 50%, you would chose 80% even tho there is the luck factor because its a better probability

[neoneros]

The chances are always reset everytime you must make a bet, the previous one does not add up to you luck, just to the statistics.

That is the fallacy of the three door/goat showhost riddle. You have to reset all your chances every time and not add them up for the next gamble you take.

[cazkooo]

How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50%

2³⁰ gives you the chances of 30 consecutive losses. So it is 1073741824:1 about a billion to one against.  

So it is better to wait to lose 10 times and bet after or it doesnt matter

It doesn't matter, in fact, it doesn't affect anything. The "lucky numbers" doesn't affected by your previous games.

it doesnt matter, it is just a calculation of the probabilty numbers which in fact may or may not happens because there is always a factor that is call luck

Ofc may not happen but if you get the possibility of betting at 80% or 50%, you would chose 80% even tho there is the luck factor because its a better probability

indeed thats why i call it luck factor, because with 98% chance to win, you can get a losing streak, so there is never a guarantee about that

[Phildo]

If the odds are truly 50/50 past results don't impact future probabilities. Even if you hit a long streak 1 way or the other, the results will approach 50/50 eventually, even though each individual flip will be 50/50. Let's use flipping a coin for an example.

You flip the coin 10 times and get 7 heads and 3 tails. So you have 70% heads

If the next 10 are 50/50 you have 12 heads and 8 tails: 60% heads

If the next 10 are 50/50 you have 17 heads and 13 tails: 56 2/3% heads

If the next 10 are 50/50 you have 22 heads and 18 tails: 55% heads

...

If the next 100 are 50/50 you have 72 heads and 68 tails: 51.4% heads

...

If the next 1000 are 50/50 you have 572 heads and 568 tails: 50.1% heads.


So the odds for each individual flip are still 50/50, but as we flip more and more coins the overall results head back towards 50%

[Phildo]

How can you calculate the chances of 30 lost bets then? If they are always 50%

2³⁰ gives you the chances of 30 consecutive losses. So it is 1073741824:1 about a billion to one against.  

So it is better to wait to lose 10 times and bet after or it doesnt matter

It doesn't matter, in fact, it doesn't affect anything. The "lucky numbers" doesn't affected by your previous games.

I still dont get it, if it means you are unlucky means that there are more chances of winning the next bet.

It is very unlikely to lose 30 times in a row flipping a coin. But, if you've already lost 29 in a row, you have already done the hard part, you've lost 29 in a row. The coin doesn't know that you've lost the first 29. After you've already lost 29 in a row, your odds of losing the 30th in a row are 50/50.

[superSTAR777]

House edge maters only if you are frequent bettor.