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Author Topic: google trends says there is no fuss at all  (Read 5391 times)
chronicaust
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August 02, 2012, 05:34:09 PM
 #21

At about $10.40 we will break the USD $100M market cap. = O

That number is somewhat hypothetical since a wide majority of bitcoins were never sold in the first place.

A better market cap figure would be something like 21M*(all btc ever sold)*(prices they were sold at)/(currently currently issued btc)

Well, theoretically at least.
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thezerg
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August 02, 2012, 05:35:49 PM
 #22

[reposting this because it is very relevant]

tl;dr -- it takes about a month or two to bootstrap to the point where you can and are willing to make a real investment


I also think that a lot of you old timers mis-estimate the time and effort it takes for a noobie to bootstrap.  It goes something like this:

1. Read about it, overcome the negative stigma that comes with SR, gambling, etc.
2. Make a small investment using bitinstant
3. Learn a ton about the banking system, chargebacks, how FED creates $.
4. Ask all the noobie questions "why can't someone just [print more bitcoins, steal your wallet, turn off the network, make it illegal]".  What's it backed by anyway? :-)
5. Read enough about it to stress about all the scammers hacked wallets and failed exchanges, etc.
6. Start the KYC process with an exchange that has about 5000 totally obscure and difficult to use ways to deposit money.
7. Tortuously move small chunks of fiat into the exchange
8. start buying
9. freak out about failed exchanges, possibility of USB stick failure, etc
10. start looking at paper/brain wallets
11. Get your head around the idea of actually holding your own money somewhere
12. Create isolated new install VM to make a paper wallet.  You can't outsource this to some client-side web script (if you really want a secure wallet)!
13. TEST the paper wallet concept (requires an entire blockchain sync from scratch).
14. KYC finally comes through!
15. DAMMIT price has doubled :-)

This was my path anyway...

For HNWIs its got to happen with both them AND their advisor (who's gonna do all the work).

So people who might have gotten interested in bitcoin during the Euro financial uncertainty may just now be starting to move from a few hundred BTC trial investment to an actual acquisition strategy.

ElectricMucus
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August 02, 2012, 05:36:43 PM
 #23

Well, there could be community growth, I don't know that. But I assumed it doesn't grow (or just very slowly) because of the above indicators.

If google trends were going up it would be easy to explain current prices, but with current situation it is not.
I'd say they community is getting more concentrated, that is people who weren't that interested in bitcoin in the first place are leaving and those who are left are getting more into it. (This is confirmed by the "sites accepting BTC" indicator)

Why does the number of people googling bitcoin have to go up for bitcoin to grow?  How often do you search for bitcoin.  I know I haven't in quite some time.  Only new users search for it, not those who have found it.

If google searches were increasing, I'd interpret that as an increase in the rate of adoption.  Right now the rate is a constant slow and steady, which is much healthier anyway.

I google bitcoin quite often, several times a week to find out what people say about it other than on this forum. I haven't said that people googleing bitcoin is a necessity for growth, but the other way around, people googling BTC certainly leads to growth. Growth can come from somewhere else than google, as I said before.

Again I think btc is having concentrated growth, that is the same as economic growth where the population stays the same and the gdp is rising.
Serge
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August 02, 2012, 05:43:56 PM
 #24

relative stats
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats > forum history part
for the past year this forum gets about 2000 new users joining constantly each month
notme
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August 02, 2012, 05:45:01 PM
 #25

relative stats
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats > forum history part
for the past year this forum gets about 2000 new users joining constantly each month

Looks like the population isn't staying the same at all.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
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August 02, 2012, 05:46:13 PM
 #26

Chart analysis is not mentioned here above.
But this has been one of the best ways to predict bitcoin price movement.
Even if some people don't believ in it, I have to say that it is a great tool: it encompasses already all the fundamental questions and brings it down to a simple thing. And it avoids getting trapped in a forest and mud of thousands of info sources.

notme
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August 02, 2012, 05:50:19 PM
 #27

Chart analysis is not mentioned here above.
But this has been one of the best ways to predict bitcoin price movement.
Even if some people don't believ in it, I have to say that it is a great tool: it encompasses already all the fundamental questions and brings it down to a simple thing. And it avoids getting trapped in a forest and mud of thousands of info sources.

Not to mention the lag of such sources vs near realtime pricing information.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
ElectricMucus
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August 02, 2012, 05:52:02 PM
 #28

relative stats
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats > forum history part
for the past year this forum gets about 2000 new users joining constantly each month

Looks like the population isn't staying the same at all.

Yes but we just learned something new. Bitcoin is growing from other sources than google or media mentioning it.
Next goal would be to find out what those sources are.

That is something you will never read out of a price-chart ...

Furthermore people join the forum and they leave it. We can't tell how many people left but we can look at pageviews and most online and get a better idea.


Chart analysis is not mentioned here above.
But this has been one of the best ways to predict bitcoin price movement.
Even if some people don't believ in it, I have to say that it is a great tool: it encompasses already all the fundamental questions and brings it down to a simple thing. And it avoids getting trapped in a forest and mud of thousands of info sources.

ITT we are looking for reasons that is something a chart can not give because it only contains market information. Explaining why those market movement happened is what we are trying to accomplish here.
Serge
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August 02, 2012, 06:11:26 PM
 #29

ElectricMucus, there is plenty of media mention https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=77.0
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August 02, 2012, 06:14:54 PM
 #30

ElectricMucus, there is plenty of media mention https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=77.0
Are there statistics on the number of new posts in there somewhere?
Serge
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August 02, 2012, 06:20:02 PM
 #31

ElectricMucus, there is plenty of media mention https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=77.0
Are there statistics on the number of new posts in there somewhere?

only stats that we have publicly available are in the link i posted earlier
niko
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August 03, 2012, 02:45:41 AM
 #32

As notme, Hexadecibel and others have already pointed out, you don't need a spike in google trends index to indicate influx of new users: a constant search volume means there are new users introduced all the time. We don't need exponential growth - that's the specialty of inflationary currencies.

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August 03, 2012, 03:14:17 AM
 #33

For some perspective, look at this graph comparing "bitcoin" to "dollar" and "euro":

http://www.google.com/trends/?q=bitcoin,dollar,euro

Bitcoin barely registers, even during the bubble.

I know this because Tyler knows this.
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August 03, 2012, 03:28:41 AM
 #34

[reposting this because it is very relevant]

tl;dr -- it takes about a month or two to bootstrap to the point where you can and are willing to make a real investment


I also think that a lot of you old timers mis-estimate the time and effort it takes for a noobie to bootstrap.  It goes something like this:

1. Read about it, overcome the negative stigma that comes with SR, gambling, etc.
2. Make a small investment using bitinstant
3. Learn a ton about the banking system, chargebacks, how FED creates $.
4. Ask all the noobie questions "why can't someone just [print more bitcoins, steal your wallet, turn off the network, make it illegal]".  What's it backed by anyway? :-)
5. Read enough about it to stress about all the scammers hacked wallets and failed exchanges, etc.
6. Start the KYC process with an exchange that has about 5000 totally obscure and difficult to use ways to deposit money.
7. Tortuously move small chunks of fiat into the exchange
8. start buying
9. freak out about failed exchanges, possibility of USB stick failure, etc
10. start looking at paper/brain wallets
11. Get your head around the idea of actually holding your own money somewhere
12. Create isolated new install VM to make a paper wallet.  You can't outsource this to some client-side web script (if you really want a secure wallet)!
13. TEST the paper wallet concept (requires an entire blockchain sync from scratch).
14. KYC finally comes through!
15. DAMMIT price has doubled :-)

This was my path anyway...

For HNWIs its got to happen with both them AND their advisor (who's gonna do all the work).

So people who might have gotten interested in bitcoin during the Euro financial uncertainty may just now be starting to move from a few hundred BTC trial investment to an actual acquisition strategy.



Sucks to be you  Cheesy

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FreeMoney
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August 03, 2012, 03:42:11 AM
 #35

At about $10.40 we will break the USD $100M market cap. = O

That number is somewhat hypothetical since a wide majority of bitcoins were never sold in the first place.

A better market cap figure would be something like 21M*(all btc ever sold)*(prices they were sold at)/(currently currently issued btc)

Well, theoretically at least.

So coins mined when they could be bought for .06 and saved (aka declined $1, declined $5, declined $30 and currently declining $10.60) are only valued by the holder at .06? No.


Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
FreeMoney
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August 03, 2012, 03:44:56 AM
 #36

[reposting this because it is very relevant]

tl;dr -- it takes about a month or two to bootstrap to the point where you can and are willing to make a real investment


I also think that a lot of you old timers mis-estimate the time and effort it takes for a noobie to bootstrap.  It goes something like this:

1. Read about it, overcome the negative stigma that comes with SR, gambling, etc.
2. Make a small investment using bitinstant
3. Learn a ton about the banking system, chargebacks, how FED creates $.
4. Ask all the noobie questions "why can't someone just [print more bitcoins, steal your wallet, turn off the network, make it illegal]".  What's it backed by anyway? :-)
5. Read enough about it to stress about all the scammers hacked wallets and failed exchanges, etc.
6. Start the KYC process with an exchange that has about 5000 totally obscure and difficult to use ways to deposit money.
7. Tortuously move small chunks of fiat into the exchange
8. start buying
9. freak out about failed exchanges, possibility of USB stick failure, etc
10. start looking at paper/brain wallets
11. Get your head around the idea of actually holding your own money somewhere
12. Create isolated new install VM to make a paper wallet.  You can't outsource this to some client-side web script (if you really want a secure wallet)!
13. TEST the paper wallet concept (requires an entire blockchain sync from scratch).
14. KYC finally comes through!
15. DAMMIT price has doubled :-)

This was my path anyway...

For HNWIs its got to happen with both them AND their advisor (who's gonna do all the work).

So people who might have gotten interested in bitcoin during the Euro financial uncertainty may just now be starting to move from a few hundred BTC trial investment to an actual acquisition strategy.



Lol, that does suck.

My method:
Read about bitcoin on /.
Visit the forum
Read the whitepaper
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Run out of fiat
Start earning coins
Sell
Sell


Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
ElectricMucus
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August 03, 2012, 07:01:44 AM
 #37

At about $10.40 we will break the USD $100M market cap. = O

That number is somewhat hypothetical since a wide majority of bitcoins were never sold in the first place.

A better market cap figure would be something like 21M*(all btc ever sold)*(prices they were sold at)/(currently currently issued btc)

Well, theoretically at least.

So coins mined when they could be bought for .06 and saved (aka declined $1, declined $5, declined $30 and currently declining $10.60) are only valued by the holder at .06? No.



Yes, and it's a fact.

U mad?

To clarify: Coins never exchanged for Currency are have no business being valued at the market price.
That may be an inconvenient truth for some, it doesn't matter as long BTC are going in the direction of triple digits or something, it does however if they are not.
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August 03, 2012, 09:28:31 AM
 #38

At about $10.40 we will break the USD $100M market cap. = O

That number is somewhat hypothetical since a wide majority of bitcoins were never sold in the first place.

A better market cap figure would be something like 21M*(all btc ever sold)*(prices they were sold at)/(currently currently issued btc)

Well, theoretically at least.

So coins mined when they could be bought for .06 and saved (aka declined $1, declined $5, declined $30 and currently declining $10.60) are only valued by the holder at .06? No.



Yes, and it's a fact.

U mad?

To clarify: Coins never exchanged for Currency are have no business being valued at the market price.
That may be an inconvenient truth for some, it doesn't matter as long BTC are going in the direction of triple digits or something, it does however if they are not.

Ok.. what about silver that hasn't been sold yet, what is it's value?

We must be miscommunicating. You think an untraded coin is worth different than one just bought on Gox for $10? Would you refuse to pay a dollar for a never sold coin? You really value it at nothing?

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
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August 03, 2012, 09:37:15 AM
 #39

Well you could value it according to the order book, if they are sold now. (There always is more than there are coins in there)

There are different approaches, and just multiplying the total coins by the market price is a meaningless figure.
The overall amount of fiat money already put into the system however is not since we depend on it to pay our expenses.
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August 03, 2012, 09:42:43 AM
 #40

relative stats
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats > forum history part
for the past year this forum gets about 2000 new users joining constantly each month

That's not a good metric at all when you realize half or more of those users only register because they can leave a keyword anchored link on their profile page and don't even post or come back to the forum again Wink

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