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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3901528 times)
deadgiveaway
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September 15, 2013, 07:02:33 PM
 #12801

What's asicminer's plan to stay competitive?
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Vycid
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September 15, 2013, 07:04:08 PM
 #12802


So, do the math. Or look here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg3134886#msg3134886

Ask yourself this - for a company that went up 5000% from the IPO, would you consider a fair value overshoot of a couple hundred percent unreasonable? (Don't forget that USD/BTC is up 10x from the IPO too).

I'm sorry if you lost money, but if you do not base your stock trades on facts, math and logic, you are a gambler, not an investor.

At your target price of 1.5 BTC based on projected net profit 10 years from now, 2 BTC is a good deal considering the dividend payments which will quickly add up to greater than 2 BTC even if the price goes down to your target.

You understand the dividend payments are the profits that don't get reinvested, and thus the 10 year dividends cannot exceed the 10 year profit?

The point of that link you quoted is that the 10 year profits are unlikely to exceed 1.5 BTC.

But they are calculated mostly with profit margin 20%, but now it is more likely 300% for gen1, I guess it's gonna be 2000% for gen2 (at start)

Not sure that you understood the reasoning in the link. This 20% is an assumption on the percentage of the network hashrate, which overall, by definition will never exceed 100%. It won't be ever less than 100% neither, btw. Roll Eyes At least that's something we can be sure about.


Well, there's actually two numbers - one is the percentage of network hashrate AM will obtain. I assumed 20% even though FC said that the target is 10% (he tends to over-deliver).

The second is the profit margin - for every bitcoin mined, how many bitcoins (or their equivalent) were spent on hardware, electricity, labor, rent, etc? Right now AM is making much more revenue than their costs, so their profit margins are large, near 100%. These margins will drop rapidly going forward. You only need to look at the competition to see this - if FC is currently paying $1.50/GH, and Cointerra is releasing a $3.00/GH product, his margins will drop below 50% as soon as most of the competition is using hardware at $3.00/GH.

This ignores the inevitable price wars that will soon occur - FC will slash his hardware sale prices in response, and reduce his costs/GH with Gen 2, but Cointerra almost certainly has a healthy margin themselves. Hardware is going to get very cheap.

Sorry if this is difficult to read, I've just woken up and I'm fairly groggy.

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September 15, 2013, 07:56:41 PM
 #12803

if FC is currently paying $1.50/GH

where does this number come from?  I've seen you mention it a few times, but I don't think I've ever seen where you got it.  Did FC publish that?

freedomno1
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September 15, 2013, 08:23:30 PM
 #12804

if FC is currently paying $1.50/GH

where does this number come from?  I've seen you mention it a few times, but I don't think I've ever seen where you got it.  Did FC publish that?

Nope real number is $52/GH based on old gen I assume Vycid just put in a random number for the next gens cointerra is 3/GH though if we assume delivery in January 2013 in my opinion cointerra being labeled better than a BFL monarach on price per GH is kind of suspicious.
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September 15, 2013, 08:27:27 PM
 #12805


So, do the math. Or look here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg3134886#msg3134886

Ask yourself this - for a company that went up 5000% from the IPO, would you consider a fair value overshoot of a couple hundred percent unreasonable? (Don't forget that USD/BTC is up 10x from the IPO too).

I'm sorry if you lost money, but if you do not base your stock trades on facts, math and logic, you are a gambler, not an investor.

At your target price of 1.5 BTC based on projected net profit 10 years from now, 2 BTC is a good deal considering the dividend payments which will quickly add up to greater than 2 BTC even if the price goes down to your target.

You understand the dividend payments are the profits that don't get reinvested, and thus the 10 year dividends cannot exceed the 10 year profit?

The point of that link you quoted is that the 10 year profits are unlikely to exceed 1.5 BTC.

But they are calculated mostly with profit margin 20%, but now it is more likely 300% for gen1, I guess it's gonna be 2000% for gen2 (at start)

Not sure that you understood the reasoning in the link. This 20% is an assumption on the percentage of the network hashrate, which overall, by definition will never exceed 100%. It won't be ever less than 100% neither, btw. Roll Eyes At least that's something we can be sure about.


Well, there's actually two numbers - one is the percentage of network hashrate AM will obtain. I assumed 20% even though FC said that the target is 10% (he tends to over-deliver).

The second is the profit margin - for every bitcoin mined, how many bitcoins (or their equivalent) were spent on hardware, electricity, labor, rent, etc? Right now AM is making much more revenue than their costs, so their profit margins are large, near 100%. These margins will drop rapidly going forward. You only need to look at the competition to see this - if FC is currently paying $1.50/GH, and Cointerra is releasing a $3.00/GH product, his margins will drop below 50% as soon as most of the competition is using hardware at $3.00/GH.

This ignores the inevitable price wars that will soon occur - FC will slash his hardware sale prices in response, and reduce his costs/GH with Gen 2, but Cointerra almost certainly has a healthy margin themselves. Hardware is going to get very cheap.

Sorry if this is difficult to read, I've just woken up and I'm fairly groggy.

You can only lose so SELL SELL SELL. Roll Eyes

I for one hope AM temporarily dips below 1.2 and then goes up again. So you have an opportunity to sell your shorts and then you don't have any reason to spread FUD here anymore.
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September 15, 2013, 08:34:13 PM
 #12806

if FC is currently paying $1.50/GH

where does this number come from?  I've seen you mention it a few times, but I don't think I've ever seen where you got it.  Did FC publish that?

He never published it. It's an estimate based on FC's old balance sheet, where he had listed the total cost of making all the hardware. Then I figured about how many TH he'd produced based on his total sale profits divided by price/TH, plus the known farm size (~50 TH).

The USB sticks were a complicating factor. Obviously it is a rough estimate but it is better than nothing.


Nope real number is $52/GH based on old gen I assume Vycid just put in a random number for the next gens cointerra is 3/GH though if we assume delivery in January 2013 in my opinion cointerra being labeled better than a BFL monarach on price per GH is kind of suspicious.


If that is true, ASICMiner is probably worth less than 0.5 BTC/share. They'd be better off buying Cointerra hardware than making their own, considering Gen 2 is at the 55nm node and probably won't be more than 4x faster per chip.

You can only lose so SELL SELL SELL. Roll Eyes

I for one hope AM temporarily dips below 1.2 and then goes up again. So you have an opportunity to sell your shorts and then you don't have any reason to spread FUD here anymore.

It's not fear, uncertainty, OR doubt. It's math and logic.

Obviously you are new to investing.

velacreations
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September 15, 2013, 08:38:52 PM
 #12807

if FC is currently paying $1.50/GH

where does this number come from?  I've seen you mention it a few times, but I don't think I've ever seen where you got it.  Did FC publish that?

He never published it. It's an estimate based on FC's old balance sheet, where he had listed the total cost of making all the hardware. Then I figured about how many TH he'd produced based on his total sale profits divided by price/TH, plus the known farm size (~50 TH).

The USB sticks were a complicating factor. Obviously it is a rough estimate but it is better than nothing.


yeah, cause I believe they are selling the USBs for more than $50/GH

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September 15, 2013, 09:21:23 PM
 #12808

He never published it. It's an estimate based on FC's old balance sheet, where he had listed the total cost of making all the hardware. Then I figured about how many TH he'd produced based on his total sale profits divided by price/TH, plus the known farm size (~50 TH).

The USB sticks were a complicating factor. Obviously it is a rough estimate but it is better than nothing.

If that is true, ASICMiner is probably worth less than 0.5 BTC/share. They'd be better off buying Cointerra hardware than making their own, considering Gen 2 is at the 55nm node and probably won't be more than 4x faster per chip.

It's not fear, uncertainty, OR doubt. It's math and logic.

Obviously you are new to investing.

You cannot say it's a rough estimate than claim it to be "math" and "logic" later. Until you have all the financial sheets backing up your math, it remains as "a rough estimate". I would suggest taking a look at CoinTerra's thread before saying they're "better off buying CoinTerra's hardware."
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September 15, 2013, 10:04:09 PM
 #12809

ASICMiner is probably worth less than 0.5 BTC/share.

I agree 100%.
And I'm willing to let you get off this adventure on a positive note.
I'll take all your shares for 0.6BTC each.
And let you brag about how you fucked me, later.

Deal?

[OVER] RIDDLES 2nd edition --- this was claimed. Look out for 3rd edition!
I won't ever ask for a loan nor offer any escrow service. If I do, please consider my account as hacked.
Vycid
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September 15, 2013, 10:09:16 PM
 #12810

ASICMiner is probably worth less than 0.5 BTC/share.

I agree 100%.
And I'm willing to let you get off this adventure on a positive note.
I'll take all your shares for 0.6BTC each.
And let you brag about how you fucked me, later.

Deal?


I obviously don't own any shares of AM, tard. I own puts because I maintain a short position.

Also, don't take quotes out of context like that. That's a seriously jackass move.

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September 15, 2013, 10:13:08 PM
 #12811

He never published it. It's an estimate based on FC's old balance sheet, where he had listed the total cost of making all the hardware. Then I figured about how many TH he'd produced based on his total sale profits divided by price/TH, plus the known farm size (~50 TH).

The USB sticks were a complicating factor. Obviously it is a rough estimate but it is better than nothing.

If that is true, ASICMiner is probably worth less than 0.5 BTC/share. They'd be better off buying Cointerra hardware than making their own, considering Gen 2 is at the 55nm node and probably won't be more than 4x faster per chip.

It's not fear, uncertainty, OR doubt. It's math and logic.

Obviously you are new to investing.

You cannot say it's a rough estimate than claim it to be "math" and "logic" later. Until you have all the financial sheets backing up your math, it remains as "a rough estimate". I would suggest taking a look at CoinTerra's thread before saying they're "better off buying CoinTerra's hardware."

I see - so being "rough" precludes an estimate from coming about via math and logic?

My estimates are not so inaccurate as for me to be uncertain about 2 BTC/share being overvalued.

As for CoinTerra's thread - yes, clearly the marketing intern is proof that the world-class professionals working on the chips have turned scammer. Apparently these days all it takes to get $1.5M in private VC funding is a plan to scam some nerds.

Considering that CoinTerra doesn't HAVE the chips back from GloFo yet - nor have they claimed to - what would you expect those pictures to be of?

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September 15, 2013, 10:45:41 PM
 #12812

I see - so being "rough" precludes an estimate from coming about via math and logic?

My estimates are not so inaccurate as for me to be uncertain about 2 BTC/share being overvalued.

No, my point was that the initial data is an estimate in itself. After the initial 3 auctions, no one (apart of Bitfountain & board members) know total sales and how much was passed on as the weekly dividend portion. Additionally, no financial numbers regarding R&D, hardware manufacturing costs, current farm maintenance costs, and future data center(s) acquisitions have been announced. Without know what remaining funds are devoted to what, theoretical extrapolation can go only go so far.

As for CoinTerra's thread - yes, clearly the marketing intern is proof that the world-class professionals working on the chips have turned scammer. Apparently these days all it takes to get $1.5M in private VC funding is a plan to scam some nerds.

Considering that CoinTerra doesn't HAVE the chips back from GloFo yet - nor have they claimed to - what would you expect those pictures to be of?

I honestly wouldn't expected any pictures until they've received their chips. Perhaps it's just my view on things but until they have chips to share/prove to the rest of the community, the jury's still out on if they can manufacture the product. For instance, I have no problem admitting that Bitfury currently has the edge on everyone right now. I'm sure you'll have a counterpoint to this post so I'm going to settle that we'll agree to disagree.
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September 15, 2013, 10:55:53 PM
 #12813

I see - so being "rough" precludes an estimate from coming about via math and logic?

My estimates are not so inaccurate as for me to be uncertain about 2 BTC/share being overvalued.

No, my point was that the initial data is an estimate in itself. After the initial 3 auctions, no one (apart of Bitfountain & board members) know total sales and how much was passed on as the weekly dividend portion. Additionally, no financial numbers regarding R&D, hardware manufacturing costs, current farm maintenance costs, and future data center(s) acquisitions have been announced. Without know what remaining funds are devoted to what, theoretical extrapolation can go only go so far.


Agreed. $1.50/GH is - as I said - a rough value. My valuation is not really dependent on that value being accurate, since I use general values for the profit margin instead of precise costs per gigahash (which will change for Gen 2 anyway).

As for CoinTerra's thread - yes, clearly the marketing intern is proof that the world-class professionals working on the chips have turned scammer. Apparently these days all it takes to get $1.5M in private VC funding is a plan to scam some nerds.

Considering that CoinTerra doesn't HAVE the chips back from GloFo yet - nor have they claimed to - what would you expect those pictures to be of?

I honestly wouldn't expected any pictures until they've received their chips. Perhaps it's just my view on things but until they have chips to share/prove to the rest of the community, the jury's still out on if they can manufacture the product. For instance, I have no problem admitting that Bitfury currently has the edge on everyone right now. I'm sure you'll have a counterpoint to this post so I'm going to settle that we'll agree to disagree.

No - you're right. The jury IS still out, there are no promises. But there are a lot of positive indications for Cointerra (certainly enough to overlook some novice marketing), and a 90% level of certainty would mean that the expectation of competition should be 90% priced into the stock price, right? That hasn't been realized, as far as I can tell.

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September 15, 2013, 11:23:33 PM
 #12814

I see - so being "rough" precludes an estimate from coming about via math and logic?

My estimates are not so inaccurate as for me to be uncertain about 2 BTC/share being overvalued.

No, my point was that the initial data is an estimate in itself. After the initial 3 auctions, no one (apart of Bitfountain & board members) know total sales and how much was passed on as the weekly dividend portion. Additionally, no financial numbers regarding R&D, hardware manufacturing costs, current farm maintenance costs, and future data center(s) acquisitions have been announced. Without know what remaining funds are devoted to what, theoretical extrapolation can go only go so far.


Agreed. $1.50/GH is - as I said - a rough value. My valuation is not really dependent on that value being accurate, since I use general values for the profit margin instead of precise costs per gigahash (which will change for Gen 2 anyway).

As for CoinTerra's thread - yes, clearly the marketing intern is proof that the world-class professionals working on the chips have turned scammer. Apparently these days all it takes to get $1.5M in private VC funding is a plan to scam some nerds.

Considering that CoinTerra doesn't HAVE the chips back from GloFo yet - nor have they claimed to - what would you expect those pictures to be of?

I honestly wouldn't expected any pictures until they've received their chips. Perhaps it's just my view on things but until they have chips to share/prove to the rest of the community, the jury's still out on if they can manufacture the product. For instance, I have no problem admitting that Bitfury currently has the edge on everyone right now. I'm sure you'll have a counterpoint to this post so I'm going to settle that we'll agree to disagree.

No - you're right. The jury IS still out, there are no promises. But there are a lot of positive indications for Cointerra (certainly enough to overlook some novice marketing), and a 90% level of certainty would mean that the expectation of competition should be 90% priced into the stock price, right? That hasn't been realized, as far as I can tell.

nice logic can we have some more??

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September 15, 2013, 11:27:27 PM
 #12815

nice logic can we have some more??

Supplied on a regular basis.

tinus42
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September 15, 2013, 11:47:07 PM
 #12816

nice logic can we have some more??

Supplied on a regular basis.

No only FUD is supplied here on regular basis. You should spook IPO investors by saying that AM is "probably worth less than BTC0.05" (halving their original investment). That might entice a nice selloff.  Grin
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September 15, 2013, 11:58:56 PM
 #12817

nice logic can we have some more??

Supplied on a regular basis.

No only FUD is supplied here on regular basis. You should spook IPO investors by saying that AM is "probably worth less than BTC0.05" (halving their original investment). That might entice a nice selloff.  Grin

See, if I was an AM investor, the thing that would really scare me is the need to resort to this kind of "argument".

It's like you can't come up with a single rational counterpoint - oh shit, better set up some straw men!

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September 16, 2013, 12:50:05 AM
 #12818

$1.50/GH

He never published it. It's an estimate based on FC's old balance sheet, where he had listed the total cost of making all the hardware. Then I figured about how many TH he'd produced based on his total sale profits divided by price/TH, plus the known farm size (~50 TH).

Not only are you basing your guesstimate on 3 of your own guesses, one of those three happens to be derived from the number you are trying to calculate! Awesome logic.

1VEX7x76pJdreV1nJW8bXpotbCNggDxG5
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September 16, 2013, 12:55:10 AM
 #12819

nice logic can we have some more??

Supplied on a regular basis.

No only FUD is supplied here on regular basis. You should spook IPO investors by saying that AM is "probably worth less than BTC0.05" (halving their original investment). That might entice a nice selloff.  Grin

See, if I was an AM investor, the thing that would really scare me is the need to resort to this kind of "argument".

It's like you can't come up with a single rational counterpoint - oh shit, better set up some straw men!
Most of us can see it's all FUD. You call it math and logic; we know it's guesses, opinion, and faulty logic.

Remember it was only a week or so ago you admitted you just don't know, which of course was already clear to most of us here. You're just making speculative guesses based on narrow-minded scenarios, and patting yourself on the back at every turn, despite there being far more profit made on the long side.

You're on here almost 24/7 spreading FUD, spamming the thread, even from your phone which must be a real pita, even 1st thing in the morning when you're still 'groggy' as you just mentioned above. Wow. Maybe it's time to see a therapist? You actually did promise to stop spamming a few weeks ago, what happened to that?

If you're so right why do you feel the compulsive need to constantly be asserting your brand of "math" and "logic"?

You're speculating (put options) in a speculative stock (AM) on a virtual exchange in a speculative economy (bitcoin), with no financial reports whatsoever, in a venture less than a year old, so please spare us the 'value investor' bullshit, do you realise how ridiculous you sound?

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September 16, 2013, 01:03:25 AM
 #12820

$1.50/GH

He never published it. It's an estimate based on FC's old balance sheet, where he had listed the total cost of making all the hardware. Then I figured about how many TH he'd produced based on his total sale profits divided by price/TH, plus the known farm size (~50 TH).

Not only are you basing your guesstimate on 3 of your own guesses, one of those three happens to be derived from the number you are trying to calculate! Awesome logic.

Care to say which of those 3 is derived from the number being calculated? It is most certainly not clear. Are you confusing sale price and manufacturing cost?

nice logic can we have some more??

Supplied on a regular basis.

No only FUD is supplied here on regular basis. You should spook IPO investors by saying that AM is "probably worth less than BTC0.05" (halving their original investment). That might entice a nice selloff.  Grin

See, if I was an AM investor, the thing that would really scare me is the need to resort to this kind of "argument".

It's like you can't come up with a single rational counterpoint - oh shit, better set up some straw men!
Most of us can see it's all FUD. You call it math and logic; we know it's guesses, opinion, and faulty logic.

Remember it was only a week or so ago you admitted you just don't know, which of course was already clear to most of us here. You're just making speculative guesses based on narrow-minded scenarios, and patting yourself on the back at every turn, despite there being far more profit made on the long side.

You're on here almost 24/7 spreading FUD, spamming the thread, even from your phone which must be a real pita, even 1st thing in the morning when you're still 'groggy' as you just mentioned above. Wow. Maybe it's time to see a therapist? You actually did promise to stop spamming a few weeks ago, what happened to that?

If you're so right why do you feel the compulsive need to constantly be asserting your brand of "math" and "logic"?

You're speculating (put options) in a speculative stock (AM) on a virtual exchange in a speculative economy (bitcoin), with no financial reports whatsoever, in a venture less than a year old, so please spare us the 'value investor' bullshit, do you realise how ridiculous you sound?



I'm not sure how ridiculous I sound, but you definitely sound a little mad.

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