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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3885653 times)
silvermario
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April 01, 2013, 08:08:20 PM
 #2781


43.077 BTC/GH (4393.846154 $/GH) @ 102$/BTC

Is that right???

Even projecting out to 200TH it's 1.4 BTC/GH (142.8  $/GH).



How did you come to that second number of 1.4 BTC/GH?
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April 01, 2013, 10:31:03 PM
 #2782

What's the current cost in terms of BTC/GH and USD/GH for ASICMINER? I tried to do some quick calculations, but my numbers are so off I must be missing something.

Current Hash Rate: 6500 GH (??)
number of shares: 400000

0.01625 GH/share
0.7 BTC/share
43.077 BTC/GH (4393.846154 $/GH) @ 102$/BTC

Is that right???

Even projecting out to 200TH it's 1.4 BTC/GH (142.8  $/GH).


Compared to:
Avalon ~ 1.17 BTC/GH
BFL ~ $20-22/GH (~ 0.2 BTC/GH)
100TH ~ 0.3 BTC/GH

Of course BFL and 100TH are not currently hashing yet. However, BFL might ship en mass in about 1 month. 100TH isn't projected to hash until July, so understandably they have a much lower valuation...in addition to the fact that they are much higher risk due to not having produced working hardware yet.

What other factors are you guys taking into account when trying to price ASICMINER shares? Shouldn't the value of shares drop off significantly over time as more and more players come into the market (assuming AM % of global hash rate goes down)?  Personally, I'm expecting around 1PH/s total hash rate at year end with diff just under 150M.

flame on  Grin


disclaimer: I sold at 0.65.

Friedcat told me that they developed everything for the lowest cost and easiest implementation. So that its very cheap to build hashpower. Thats why i dont fear the competition. Once they have their datacenter and the needed employees they could theoretically churn out TH after TH and for a unbeatable price. All the other asiccompanies has to built tiny units compared to asicminer. That draws out time.
So i think Asicminer can easily compete with everyone out there. They were the first that had asics ready (or was it avalon?) which means they are at the top of knowledge and they can buy big and implement big too. Thats different from the other. They will stay on top easily i believe.
I might be wrong but for thats its an investment... Smiley

Please ALWAYS contact me through bitcointalk pm before sending someone coins.
coldguy
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April 01, 2013, 10:32:34 PM
 #2783

Auction for the ASIC units is definitely acceptable idea.

On the other hand, why not ASICMiner considers sell some contracted units, like what they do in the smartphone and mobile network industry. All the purchased units are coded could only connected to some dedicated mining pools, so that you have a good track of the hashing power of the sold units.

At this moment it seems hard to have a good prediction of the BTC market. Therefore an auction may quickly find a reasonable market price among all the participants of BTC markets. In the long run, the later method may help ASICMiner to expand itself in a massive scale.

Just some thoughts. though.
vortex1878
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April 01, 2013, 10:50:08 PM
 #2784


43.077 BTC/GH (4393.846154 $/GH) @ 102$/BTC

Is that right???

Even projecting out to 200TH it's 1.4 BTC/GH (142.8  $/GH).



How did you come to that second number of 1.4 BTC/GH?

Sorry that you are not capable of 5th grade mathematics.

What's the current cost in terms of BTC/GH and USD/GH for ASICMINER? I tried to do some quick calculations, but my numbers are so off I must be missing something.

Current Hash Rate: 6500 GH (??)
number of shares: 400000

0.01625 GH/share
0.7 BTC/share
43.077 BTC/GH (4393.846154 $/GH) @ 102$/BTC

Is that right???

Even projecting out to 200TH it's 1.4 BTC/GH (142.8  $/GH).


Compared to:
Avalon ~ 1.17 BTC/GH
BFL ~ $20-22/GH (~ 0.2 BTC/GH)
100TH ~ 0.3 BTC/GH

Of course BFL and 100TH are not currently hashing yet. However, BFL might ship en mass in about 1 month. 100TH isn't projected to hash until July, so understandably they have a much lower valuation...in addition to the fact that they are much higher risk due to not having produced working hardware yet.

What other factors are you guys taking into account when trying to price ASICMINER shares? Shouldn't the value of shares drop off significantly over time as more and more players come into the market (assuming AM % of global hash rate goes down)?  Personally, I'm expecting around 1PH/s total hash rate at year end with diff just under 150M.

flame on  Grin


disclaimer: I sold at 0.65.

Your calculations are right. But you miss the point that you actually have to OWN (either a share of e.g. ASICMINER or a mining device).

That is why the current price for an ASICMINER share is adequate (or probably pretty much undervalued imho).
kaerf
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April 01, 2013, 11:28:56 PM
 #2785

Your calculations are right. But you miss the point that you actually have to OWN (either a share of e.g. ASICMINER or a mining device).

That is why the current price for an ASICMINER share is adequate (or probably pretty much undervalued imho).

I understand that there are limited options right now. It's hard to get an Avalon, BFL doesn't exist yet (nor does 100TH or helveticoin).

However, AM has the same problem. Right now, you OWN ~6.5TH...not 12 or 62 or 262. Understandably, you're anticipating an extra 56TH "soon". Even at 62TH it's still 4.5 BTC/GH. Avalon batch #3 was widely criticized for being overpriced at 1.17 BTC/GH and you could have gotten it "soon" (I think it took more than a day to fully sell out). IMO, 0.7 BTC/share must be for a fairly long term projection (~2 yr)...I can understand that. I can also understand how the share price adds to the value since you can "sell it back" on the open market and maybe even make gains on share price. It's just the uncertainty of the market that I'm wary of...seems like there is potential for a lot of big players to enter the scene and reduce AM's share of the market. Then again AM has a head start on jumping to the next gen (maybe)...

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April 02, 2013, 12:05:28 AM
 #2786

Your calculations are right. But you miss the point that you actually have to OWN (either a share of e.g. ASICMINER or a mining device).

That is why the current price for an ASICMINER share is adequate (or probably pretty much undervalued imho).

I understand that there are limited options right now. It's hard to get an Avalon, BFL doesn't exist yet (nor does 100TH or helveticoin).

However, AM has the same problem. Right now, you OWN ~6.5TH...not 12 or 62 or 262. Understandably, you're anticipating an extra 56TH "soon". Even at 62TH it's still 4.5 BTC/GH. Avalon batch #3 was widely criticized for being overpriced at 1.17 BTC/GH and you could have gotten it "soon" (I think it took more than a day to fully sell out). IMO, 0.7 BTC/share must be for a fairly long term projection (~2 yr)...I can understand that. I can also understand how the share price adds to the value since you can "sell it back" on the open market and maybe even make gains on share price. It's just the uncertainty of the market that I'm wary of...seems like there is potential for a lot of big players to enter the scene and reduce AM's share of the market. Then again AM has a head start on jumping to the next gen (maybe)...



Do the maths about annual gains ... Wildly speculative right now, but just be conservative.
Then add the value of *immediate* access, not months from now.
Then factor in the low entry cost (1 share), and reinvestment of the dividends weekly. There's no greater force than compound interest.

Simple maths really.

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helixone
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April 02, 2013, 01:33:27 AM
 #2787

Your calculations are right. But you miss the point that you actually have to OWN (either a share of e.g. ASICMINER or a mining device).

That is why the current price for an ASICMINER share is adequate (or probably pretty much undervalued imho).

I understand that there are limited options right now. It's hard to get an Avalon, BFL doesn't exist yet (nor does 100TH or helveticoin).

However, AM has the same problem. Right now, you OWN ~6.5TH...not 12 or 62 or 262. Understandably, you're anticipating an extra 56TH "soon". Even at 62TH it's still 4.5 BTC/GH. Avalon batch #3 was widely criticized for being overpriced at 1.17 BTC/GH and you could have gotten it "soon" (I think it took more than a day to fully sell out). IMO, 0.7 BTC/share must be for a fairly long term projection (~2 yr)...I can understand that. I can also understand how the share price adds to the value since you can "sell it back" on the open market and maybe even make gains on share price. It's just the uncertainty of the market that I'm wary of...seems like there is potential for a lot of big players to enter the scene and reduce AM's share of the market. Then again AM has a head start on jumping to the next gen (maybe)...



Do the maths about annual gains ... Wildly speculative right now, but just be conservative.
Then add the value of *immediate* access, not months from now.
Then factor in the low entry cost (1 share), and reinvestment of the dividends weekly. There's no greater force than compound interest.

Simple maths really.

I am suspect of anyone pushing a dividend paying stock, and suggesting they are undervalued and that people should buy in the hopes of price appreciation. I say this because if they are long on the stock for reasons of the great potential for future dividends, then the best thing that can happen to an existing shareholder is that the stock stays low/reasonably priced ver the long term, so they can keep buying more at reasonable prices.

If you want the price to go up that means you are looking to trade/flip the stock. (Nothing wrong with that, as that's a valid way to make money) IE: Buy low, sell high.

I will quote the Oracle of Omaha regarding stock prices. (Warren Buffet)

"A short quiz: If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should you wish for higher or lower prices for beef? Likewise, if you are going to buy a car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer, should you prefer higher or lower car prices? These questions, of course, answer themselves.

But now for the final exam: If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period? Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall. In effect, they rejoice because prices have risen for the "hamburgers" they will soon be buying. This reaction makes no sense. Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices."

ASICMINER shares are no longer trading on a purely rational basis, as we have people who want to get into "ASIC Mining" and today buying ASICMINER shares is the easiest way. (Still money to potentially be had trading the stock, but I suspect, making money as a dividend play is probably not in the cards at current prices. (Unless things go very well, and worse than even the worst projections for the competition.)

-helixone

P.S. - I think ASICMINER has a decent chance as any mining company here, but pricing this it with all that has happened and what could happen is really challenging, so I am giving it a decent discount for uncertainty. IE: I think it is a little ahead of itself, if you are pricing it as a high risk mining company and expect profitability to decline over time, and also expect to cover the purchase price with mining and ASIC card sales, and aren't playing the bigger fool game.
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April 02, 2013, 01:45:22 AM
 #2788

I invest in people...

As far as I can tell friedcat is one of the best investments in the bitcoin community at this moment.
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April 02, 2013, 02:03:17 AM
 #2789

Never said i was looking to sell. Never assumed anything about the investor's perspective (daytrading, long term investment, dividend yields or a combination of the above)

I don't see the point in owning non-dividend yielding shares in this setting. Or pretty much at all. If you don't get a share of the spoils - why should i invest Smiley At which point, the current market valuation becomes a simple equation of dividend yield to purchase price, giving % ROI annually.

Disclaimer: I bought my shares ages ago, at IPO price or near IPO prices as part of a diversified investment portfolio. A tiny portion of the dividends so far i've reinvested and bought a few passthroughs, expecting value appreciation even further.





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April 02, 2013, 06:00:22 AM
 #2790

a series of questions:

1) why sell hardware?  The sales of hardware is at best a bearish hedge for the outlook of BTC; BFL has basically committed to sale prices that are not at all in their interests to fulfill vs self-mine.  So, why is it best for AM to sell hardware now, isn't that a distraction, why not put that hardware online, hashing?

2) Do we have enough transparency of what AM currently has online?  The known accounts at BTCguild and ozmine are taken on faith.  Do we need to just take it on faith that what we are told is true?  I would like to trust the board and the principal shareholders, but we need more than a brief weekly update.  Daily would be better.

3) Every minute, literally, that the units are not brought online to hash, is a lost minute.  I should think that heaven and earth would be moved to bring data centers online; I just do not get the sense that this is the case via the weekly updates, or at least -- I do not understand fully the obstacles to bringing the units online.  I think more information with these difficulties may elicit ideas from shareholders as to how to address the issues.

I am just trying to ask what a normal person may ask.  Many of us are not normal, so I thought I'd test the water here.  Wink
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April 02, 2013, 06:08:54 AM
 #2791

a series of questions:

1) why sell hardware?  The sales of hardware is at best a bearish hedge for the outlook of BTC; BFL has basically committed to sale prices that are not at all in their interests to fulfill vs self-mine.  So, why is it best for AM to sell hardware now, isn't that a distraction, why not put that hardware online, hashing?

2) Do we have enough transparency of what AM currently has online?  The known accounts at BTCguild and ozmine are taken on faith.  Do we need to just take it on faith that what we are told is true?  I would like to trust the board and the principal shareholders, but we need more than a brief weekly update.  Daily would be better.

3) Every minute, literally, that the units are not brought online to hash, is a lost minute.  I should think that heaven and earth would be moved to bring data centers online; I just do not get the sense that this is the case via the weekly updates, or at least -- I do not understand fully the obstacles to bringing the units online.  I think more information with these difficulties may elicit ideas from shareholders as to how to address the issues.

I am just trying to ask what a normal person may ask.  Many of us are not normal, so I thought I'd test the water here.  Wink

1) Because they can't bring on datacenter capacity faster than they can produce hardware. The thought is selling hardware sooner than later will allow them to fetch a premium, as early ASIC owners will have an advantage.

2) Not sure what to say.. Most people do take it on faith as the 80% of the IPO shareholders who haven't moved their shares into passthroughs for sale, have been paid back their initial investments in full in the form of dividends, and generally have a lot of faith in friedcat. He has delivered on multiple fronts, against quite long odds. (Note: past performance is not necessarily a reliable indicator of future performance.)

3) Agreed, however, when it comes to these sorts of things, it's easier said than done. The biggest challenge is that they are based in China, and there is huge competition for the things they need (power, space, cooling, etc.) They also have to build their own datacenters, since traditional ones aren't geared to devices that have nearly the power density that btc mining gear does. Building datacenters takes time and money. (Time being the biggest blocker here, since competition is coming from BFL and Avalon.)

-helixone
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April 02, 2013, 07:07:41 AM
 #2792

Down to 5,100 GH @ BTCguild all of a sudden, please tell me we just moved over to ozco.in or elsewhere...
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April 02, 2013, 07:09:39 AM
 #2793


3) Agreed, however, when it comes to these sorts of things, it's easier said than done. The biggest challenge is that they are based in China, and there is huge competition for the things they need (power, space, cooling, etc.) They also have to build their own datacenters, since traditional ones aren't geared to devices that have nearly the power density that btc mining gear does. Building datacenters takes time and money. (Time being the biggest blocker here, since competition is coming from BFL and Avalon.)

-helixone

I get that, but why does it take nearly a month now? I would expect slow rise in hashrate, but it stands still for 4 weeks.
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April 02, 2013, 07:13:44 AM
 #2794

Does GLBSE/nefario still owe ASICMINER any BTC?

"The difference between a castle and a prison is only a question of who holds the keys."
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April 02, 2013, 07:24:31 AM
 #2795

Down to 5,100 GH @ BTCguild all of a sudden, please tell me we just moved over to ozco.in or elsewhere...

Saturday/sunday 0.5 TH/s went to Ozco.in, and the remaining 6TH/s stayed on BTCGuild.
Now the Ozcoin dropped to almost 0, and BTCGuild went to 5 TH/s..

Don't know what is happening there, maybe moving to another pool?

Asicminer Hashrate Charts @ www.asicminercharts.com

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April 02, 2013, 07:31:15 AM
 #2796

Down to 5,100 GH @ BTCguild all of a sudden, please tell me we just moved over to ozco.in or elsewhere...

Saturday/sunday 0.5 TH/s went to Ozco.in, and the remaining 6TH/s stayed on BTCGuild.
Now the Ozcoin dropped to almost 0, and BTCGuild went to 5 TH/s..

Don't know what is happening there, maybe moving to another pool?

Maybe they are finally rerouting whole network. That's where the problem is according to friedcat's reports.
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April 02, 2013, 08:17:54 AM
 #2797

Where can I find those shares?

Hai
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April 02, 2013, 08:20:40 AM
 #2798

Where can I find those shares?
PTs on BitFunder and BTCT.Co

You can also buy shares from the auctions section on this forum.
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April 02, 2013, 10:50:06 AM
 #2799

Hashrate on BTCGuild is back at 6,5TH/s, while staying near zero at ozco.in.
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April 03, 2013, 12:18:12 AM
 #2800

I get that, but why does it take nearly a month now? I would expect slow rise in hashrate, but it stands still for 4 weeks.

They have problems with getting the need power supply and network problems. They wouldnt decide to sell units if these problems wouldnt be serious or could be repaired fast because selling units wont bring the same money than hashing yourself. And they didnt want to sell before. So i dont doubt the problems. Its a pity that it cant be repaired fast but no one outside knows exactly whats the problem.

Does GLBSE/nefario still owe ASICMINER any BTC?

Yes. 1688.188BTC

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