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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3897293 times)
MikkisJ
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May 20, 2013, 10:54:50 PM
 #5361

This is a noob question...

How does transfer of shares happen? I understand the owners of shares are in your database, but how can I see when someone transferred shares to another owner, me?
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May 20, 2013, 11:32:08 PM
 #5362

Ok, I will do the heavy math for you Tongue
21.000.000 btc - 11.000.000 btc = 10 more millions to mine. (total coins minus already mined coins).
10.000.000 btc / 400.000 pcs  = 25 BTC per share (if we mine 100% of it).

So, number of coins yet to be mined per share is:
2.5 btc if we maintain 10%
6.25 btc if we maintain 25%
12.50 btc if we hit 50%
25 btc if we somehow hit 100% Smiley


That would be correct if in your examples above (using 10%) you were happy to invest 2.5 BTC now and wait about 10-20 years to receive the same 2.5BTC back in mined coins (ignoring costs/fees/electricity etc).

If on the other hand you want to actually earn a return on your risky investment then the value has to be discounted by your desired return rate. I did the maths many pages ago, the relevant bit is:

"If ASIC Miner could mine 10% of all coins forever, then they mine 1Mn BTC for a total of 2.5 BTC/share (ie 1Mn/400k)
Assuming that an investor wanted a positive net return then they'd pay less than 2.5BTC to buy that income stream, probably nearer 1BTC, for a roughly 25% IRR over the long holding period."

With this in mind and assuming a 20% long-term share 2BTC is a fair value right now.

The counter-argument is the possible added value of transaction fees, but at this stage it is very unclear what these will be worth.....

sleger
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May 20, 2013, 11:37:16 PM
 #5363

That is assuming a 20% market share which could very well be their mining market share. But in addition there is hardware sales, which at the current price are probably sold at the "right" price, as in exactly for how many bitcoins they would bring back.
So indirectly AM could own well more than 50% of the share indirectly through their sales, and the sales bring income very fast.
So there are some arguments for AM shares to be priced well more than 2 BTC.
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May 21, 2013, 12:08:47 AM
 #5364

That is assuming a 20% market share which could very well be their mining market share. But in addition there is hardware sales, which at the current price are probably sold at the "right" price, as in exactly for how many bitcoins they would bring back.
So indirectly AM could own well more than 50% of the share indirectly through their sales, and the sales bring income very fast.
So there are some arguments for AM shares to be priced well more than 2 BTC.

correct and they deliver much faster than all other sha-256 asic companies. (I received mine in New York 48 hours from receipt of payment)

so they could have that market cornered

There could be an opportunity for them to sell more shovels
bobboooiie
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May 21, 2013, 12:28:33 AM
 #5365

It's nothing new, he has been selling G.ASICMiner-PT for a few weeks...they had ~4130 shares, 2800 left.  
Closing down 'Gamma' fund.

No FUD to spread here sorry.

Wait, what happens to poeple who have PT`s from them ? Am I still gonna be able to trade and who is gonna provide liqudity for market ?
CMMPro
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May 21, 2013, 12:33:32 AM
 #5366

It's all on Bitfunder....the G.ASICMINER-PT isn't going anywhere.

He closed an older fund that held a shitload of G.ASICMINER-PT (4130 shares).
That fund had a lot of people left in the negative, and he did an amazing standup job of making money with the remaining shares and getting everyone their investments back instead of being at a huge loss.

DeaDTerra is practically a Bitcointalk hero for what he did for those shareholders.
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May 21, 2013, 12:57:34 AM
 #5367

Solo mining provides

1) No operator fees
2) All transaction fees (which have been consistently rising since Bitcoin started)
3) Less risk from pool owner trust
4) Less risk from pool downtime and DDOS attacks

At a cost of
1) More variance (who cares when you have significant hash power)
and
2) No merged mining.  This is important because, according to Dustcoin, Namecoin currently adds 6.42% (BTC60.6 or $7410.17 a day) to 21TH of mining.

That's not chump change; perhaps Friedcat can buy merged mining software from Dr. Haribo or doublec. 


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May 21, 2013, 01:11:16 AM
 #5368

Solo mining provides

1) No operator fees
2) All transaction fees (which have been consistently rising since Bitcoin started)
3) Less risk from pool owner trust
4) Less risk from pool downtime and DDOS attacks

At a cost of
1) More variance (who cares when you have significant hash power)
and
2) No merged mining.  This is important because, according to Dustcoin, Namecoin currently adds 6.42% (BTC60.6 or $7410.17 a day) to 21TH of mining.

That's not chump change; perhaps Friedcat can buy merged mining software from Dr. Haribo or doublec. 
  good point they could also fund dr haribo to a better server and hash more on bit minter

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
romerun
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May 21, 2013, 01:17:07 AM
 #5369

This is a noob question...

How does transfer of shares happen? I understand the owners of shares are in your database, but how can I see when someone transferred shares to another owner, me?

The current share owner contacts asicminer staff to request the change of ownership providing the bitcoin address and contact email for the new owner.

who is asicminer staff
matt4054
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May 21, 2013, 01:33:28 AM
 #5370

2) No merged mining.  This is important because, according to Dustcoin, Namecoin currently adds 6.42% (BTC60.6 or $7410.17 a day) to 21TH of mining.

That's not chump change; perhaps Friedcat can buy merged mining software from Dr. Haribo or doublec.  

True. OTOH I don't think this income would have been sustainable in the long run. NMC is deemed to stay a niche for alt-coiners until real applications start making use of it (i.e. the idea behind .bit at the time)
conv3rsion
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May 21, 2013, 02:01:18 AM
 #5371

Solo mining provides

1) No operator fees
2) All transaction fees (which have been consistently rising since Bitcoin started)
3) Less risk from pool owner trust
4) Less risk from pool downtime and DDOS attacks

At a cost of
1) More variance (who cares when you have significant hash power)
and
2) No merged mining.  This is important because, according to Dustcoin, Namecoin currently adds 6.42% (BTC60.6 or $7410.17 a day) to 21TH of mining.

That's not chump change; perhaps Friedcat can buy merged mining software from Dr. Haribo or doublec.  

ASICMiner cannot merge mine will all 21TH or it will destroy the alt coins, both in terms of theri network hash rate (exceeding 51%) and in terms of exchange value (thats a lot of coins now being insta sold). So yes, a portion could go to DEVcoin and IXcoin, and namecoin, but not all or even most of it.

In other words, its not going to be +6.42%

It might be something to explore, but right now I think Friedcat has much more profitable optimizations and expansions to pursue.
JamesTaylor
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May 21, 2013, 02:15:57 AM
 #5372

Can some1 explain why is it going to be useful to know ASICMiner mining hashrate? I guess only curiosity.
conv3rsion
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May 21, 2013, 02:17:33 AM
 #5373

Can some1 explain why is it going to be useful to know ASICMiner mining hashrate? I guess only curiosity.

Helps to estimate expected dividends, or at least the portion that comes from mining and not sales.
Helps to verify that ASICMiner is currently mining at the rate they claim to, which builds confidence
gog1
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May 21, 2013, 02:52:06 AM
 #5374

Agree in that there are other optimization to do,

NMC / BTC dropped a lot after ASICMINER shows up in bitminter.

Solo mining provides

1) No operator fees
2) All transaction fees (which have been consistently rising since Bitcoin started)
3) Less risk from pool owner trust
4) Less risk from pool downtime and DDOS attacks

At a cost of
1) More variance (who cares when you have significant hash power)
and
2) No merged mining.  This is important because, according to Dustcoin, Namecoin currently adds 6.42% (BTC60.6 or $7410.17 a day) to 21TH of mining.

That's not chump change; perhaps Friedcat can buy merged mining software from Dr. Haribo or doublec.  

ASICMiner cannot merge mine will all 21TH or it will destroy the alt coins, both in terms of theri network hash rate (exceeding 51%) and in terms of exchange value (thats a lot of coins now being insta sold). So yes, a portion could go to DEVcoin and IXcoin, and namecoin, but not all or even most of it.

In other words, its not going to be +6.42%

It might be something to explore, but right now I think Friedcat has much more profitable optimizations and expansions to pursue.
stripykitteh
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May 21, 2013, 03:07:40 AM
 #5375

Can some1 explain why is it going to be useful to know ASICMiner mining hashrate? I guess only curiosity.

Helps to estimate expected dividends, or at least the portion that comes from mining and not sales.
Helps to verify that ASICMiner is currently mining at the rate they claim to, which builds confidence


I don't disagree with you entirely, and I could be wrong about this but I'm coming to the conclusion that it won't matter too much deducing what the hash rate is as:

- AM have no incentive to publicize it
- solo hash rate will change all the time anyway
- earnings from solo mining are what matters, not hash rate

Tied up in that are some assumptions about cost of manufacture and operation; however if we assume that they are both fairly low we can just come up with an estimate to turn revenue from solo mining into earnings. Shareholders are just used to being able to assess their expected income from hash rate because the pool stats are visible.

I am suggesting that while it would be nice to know the solo hash rate, I don't think it matters that much as the blockchain will tell us what solo revenue is anyway and we can deduce earnings from that.

Prediction: when gen-2 ASICs arrive, they will be deployed to solo mining operations first. Information about this will initially be confidential, perhaps for several months. Public pools will continue to add legacy gen-1 hardware until it is all deployed/sold. When gen-2 ASICs are being manufactured in volume the old gen-1 kit will be sold off cheaply. Then gen-2 kit will start to appear in pools, then it will be offered to the public. Rinse, lather, repeat.

I don't like signature campaigns.
matt4054
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May 21, 2013, 03:08:12 AM
 #5376

And here's another solo AM block at 237135. I wonder how much % is now solo mining.

In other news, we're about to break 2.3+ on BTC-TC. That's insane IMHO but it feels good for the portfolio :-)

EDIT: here we are, it just traded at 2.35 Tongue
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May 21, 2013, 03:19:29 AM
 #5377

Dear god, 2.499/share... People must know something I don't...

Edit: 2.5/share!!! Holy cow!!
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May 21, 2013, 03:24:45 AM
 #5378

Dear god, 2.499/share... People must know something I don't...

Edit: 2.5/share!!! Holy cow!!

Yes it's unbelievable... The 10 sell orders @2.49 are mine, I love AM but here there's a bargain to be made ;-)
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May 21, 2013, 03:25:59 AM
 #5379

Dear god, 2.499/share... People must know something I don't...

Edit: 2.5/share!!! Holy cow!!

Yes it's unbelievable... The 10 sell orders @2.49 are mine, I love AM but here there's a bargain to be made ;-)

Don't sell Matt..... bad idea!!!!  Sad

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May 21, 2013, 03:28:20 AM
 #5380

Always a hot commodity guess the calculation to the board seat is getting closer causing some frenzy
Either that or the solo mining
Ha-ha this is becoming a speculator troll box
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