ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Swordsoffreedom]

no no no no no
now everybody is confused, except mabsark jdany and jimmothy.
see how i didnt include myself in that list of "not confused"?
all i want to know, (well, not ALL) is...
shouldnt AM be worth a little more?
is it hit the ceiling at 0.25?
or are we already over-valued?
sorry to make everybody emboldened enough to speak their mind n all, but srsly guise.
I'm not only losing my shirt over here, but my hair is falling out and my dog keeps looking at me like he's gonna run away soon as I open the door.
throw me some truths

No way of knowing, bitcoin is swimming in good news yet still going down and mining requirements are based on that so even if AM is at the cutting edge the size of the market is unpredictable.

Folks should really be asking themselves why bitcoin is dropping, $100 showed every sign of being sustainable yet way more than double the adoption, transaction volume, etc. is floating like a brick. Imho exchanges are trading fake coins, trading is done off the blockchain and even the reserves cant be verified for the vast majority of coins, that's a throwback from the Gox way of doing things and a lot of temptation for exchange operators. If it keeps going down so will the demand for mining hardware.

The only thing is downright pessimism because the price keeps dropping, that or people are really afraid to lose their money since they have to secure it themselves and are afraid of exchanges collapsing on them.
Pretty much once the money is gone its gone but if its Visa I have insurance logic.

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[newIndia]

no no no no no
now everybody is confused, except mabsark jdany and jimmothy.
see how i didnt include myself in that list of "not confused"?
all i want to know, (well, not ALL) is...
shouldnt AM be worth a little more?
is it hit the ceiling at 0.25?
or are we already over-valued?
sorry to make everybody emboldened enough to speak their mind n all, but srsly guise.
I'm not only losing my shirt over here, but my hair is falling out and my dog keeps looking at me like he's gonna run away soon as I open the door.
throw me some truths

No way of knowing, bitcoin is swimming in good news yet still going down and mining requirements are based on that so even if AM is at the cutting edge the size of the market is unpredictable.

Folks should really be asking themselves why bitcoin is dropping, $100 showed every sign of being sustainable yet way more than double the adoption, transaction volume, etc. is floating like a brick. Imho exchanges are trading fake coins, trading is done off the blockchain and even the reserves cant be verified for the vast majority of coins, that's a throwback from the Gox way of doing things and a lot of temptation for exchange operators. If it keeps going down so will the demand for mining hardware.

Inflated IOUs pushed by the exchanges to show high volume are creating the price drop problem.

[sngwinner]

If the chips perform as expected and they replace the AMHash operation with gen 4 then they will have 20phs of cloud mining to sell or self mine with. That's without expanding capacity which they should be able to do. 20 phs might be about 6% of the network which over its useful life should probably mine close to 0.09 btc per share before electricity costs. Am will likely sell chips and also expand self mining r selling hashes through cloud mining. I'm thinking we will have dividends in excess of .25 btc per share this year after chips are deployed but I'm sure I'm missing something crucial. Hasn't stopped me from pick up more at a good price.

I would love for someone to tell me I'm wrong so I can just give up on AM and hold BTC for the long haul.

[ujka]

...
 but I'm sure I'm missing something crucial. 

Maybe you're missing the costs to produce 20PH of mining hardware?

[HarmonLi]

And how many refunded?

feedback on the Prisma 2.0 should be coming soon.  Assuming it is good, even with minimal sales it will hopefully set an example and a benchmark for next generation products.  The memory of the Prisma 1.0
should be sufficient example of what NOT to let out the door.

   May July August December March?  Dividends could still be a reality, but we likely won't know of it until it is done.  Too many misses makes one shy to announce anything.  I get that.  I can continue waiting. 

Yeah I think it's very important for AM to was their reputation off the Prisma 1 failures. If the new generation (which looks really durable and robust) can perform as expected and live up to the promises, AM will be able to sell more miners when the BE300 is ready!

[sngwinner]

...
 but I'm sure I'm missing something crucial. 

Maybe you're missing the costs to produce 20PH of mining hardware?

AM has been retaining all earnings and according to FriedCat has enough BTC for "a long time". I think it's safe to assume they have $, yuan, or btc on hand to fund chip production.

[Chris_Sabian]

If the chips perform as expected and they replace the AMHash operation with gen 4 then they will have 20phs of cloud mining to sell or self mine with. That's without expanding capacity which they should be able to do. 20 phs might be about 6% of the network which over its useful life should probably mine close to 0.09 btc per share before electricity costs. Am will likely sell chips and also expand self mining r selling hashes through cloud mining. I'm thinking we will have dividends in excess of .25 btc per share this year after chips are deployed but I'm sure I'm missing something crucial. Hasn't stopped me from pick up more at a good price.

I would love for someone to tell me I'm wrong so I can just give up on AM and hold BTC for the long haul.

Disclaimer: I own AM shares.


The current block number is ~341,660 and the next halving takes place at block 480,000 (sometime in late summer / early fall 2016).  So there are ~138,000 blocks to go or about 3,500,000 bitcoins left.

In order to have 0.25 btc / share, AM with 400,000 share would need to mine 100,000 after hardware costs, electricity, maintenance, salary, rent, etc.  These costs are highly variable.  Lets say they are making 25% 'profit' (only AM knows this number, this may be way too high, but let's go with it for this calculation).  This means that AM needs to mine 400,000 bitcoins out of the next 3,500,000.  Put it another way, AM needs to have ~11% of network hashrate until the next halving (18 months or so).

This is just a quick calculation based on some highly variable numbers.  Is this possible?  I have no idea.  I just did a quick calculation based on your post.  

[HarmonLi]

...
 but I'm sure I'm missing something crucial. 

Maybe you're missing the costs to produce 20PH of mining hardware?

AM has been retaining all earnings and according to FriedCat has enough BTC for "a long time". I think it's safe to assume they have $, yuan, or btc on hand to fund chip production.

They're careful not to give away the income as dividends right away. They're retaining as much as they need to and will most likely start giving out income as dividends, as soon as the income is stable, sustainable and there's still enough BTC to fund future operations and development.

[sngwinner]

So KNC taped out 16nm. Will they beat AM to production?  They got $15M in funding so I'm guessing the batch they churn out is going to be massive.

[superduh]

i'm not an pro analyst by any means and i think mr fried cat already knows what's up
but, i'll throw this out there anyway.
Between bitfury and knc they both have funding upwards of 100 million, their own data centers, immersion cooling and are branching out into other territories.

With the halving coming up in a year, AsicMiner has no time to lose, or they will lose.
their capitalization is not by any means top any longer. doubt they have their own efficient data center.
my best advice is for friedcat to sell some of the bitfountain's equity ASAP and grow like crazy this year. this will be the make it or break it year. perhaps outside investors/advisers would be highly beneficial to him. wish him the best but he needs to take this shit extremely seriously since there literally is no room for error.

[Mabsark]

So KNC taped out 16nm. Will they beat AM to production?  They got $15M in funding so I'm guessing the batch they churn out is going to be massive.

You're not taking into account the cost of a 16nm mask. That's going to be considerably more expensive as are the wafers themselves. Look at KnC's 20nm offering, it was way overpriced and less efficient than some 28nm offerings. I reckon their 16nm offering will also be an overpriced stinker.

I'm more concerned about BitFury's and Spondoolies' next gen chips than KnC's.

Also, TSMC has been having problems with 16nm and its been delayed by 3-6 months.

[Dexter770221]

I think bitfury have troubles too. They said that in Q4 2014 they will have ~0.2W/GH chip. Then why punin that works very close with bitfury closes farm (with low electricity rate and high capacity) instead fiil it with new 5 times efficient hardware?

[gogxmagog]

i'm not an pro analyst by any means and i think mr fried cat already knows what's up
but, i'll throw this out there anyway.
Between bitfury and knc they both have funding upwards of 100 million, their own data centers, immersion cooling and are branching out into other territories.

With the halving coming up in a year, AsicMiner has no time to lose, or they will lose.
their capitalization is not by any means top any longer. doubt they have their own efficient data center.
my best advice is for friedcat to sell some of the bitfountain's equity ASAP and grow like crazy this year. this will be the make it or break it year. perhaps outside investors/advisers would be highly beneficial to him. wish him the best but he needs to take this shit extremely seriously since there literally is no room for error.

If AM would issue some divs for a few weeks, Bitfountain would get a TON more btc for their shares. just sayin~

[hdbuck]

i'm not an pro analyst by any means and i think mr fried cat already knows what's up
but, i'll throw this out there anyway.
Between bitfury and knc they both have funding upwards of 100 million, their own data centers, immersion cooling and are branching out into other territories.

With the halving coming up in a year, AsicMiner has no time to lose, or they will lose.
their capitalization is not by any means top any longer. doubt they have their own efficient data center.
my best advice is for friedcat to sell some of the bitfountain's equity ASAP and grow like crazy this year. this will be the make it or break it year. perhaps outside investors/advisers would be highly beneficial to him. wish him the best but he needs to take this shit extremely seriously since there literally is no room for error.

Something to consider there, the crypto hardware industry isn't only units to hash sha256, there's the alts, hardware wallets, atm's, lots of other areas and they're growing all the time. AM was the first to announce plans to produce immersive cooled hardware and they didn't get much of a market to themselves with it, personally I think the whole idea of IP and trade secrets is BS but if they're going to branch out into new markets they'd probably not say a whole lot about it beforehand this time around.

if only their last two gens wouldnt have failed.. its not about secrets, the technology is the same for everyone.

its about design and freakin time to market.

[tsm13]

this all boils down to who gets their gear plugged in first, we wont know this until its happened. You can keep an eye on the hash rate charts though

[arnuschky]

I take a look into this thread once or twice a week as I still have a stake in AM.
Every time, I am amazed how much there is to talk about even though there
is absolutely nothing to talk about. 

[bones]

If the chips perform as expected and they replace the AMHash operation with gen 4 then they will have 20phs of cloud mining to sell or self mine with. That's without expanding capacity which they should be able to do. 20 phs might be about 6% of the network which over its useful life should probably mine close to 0.09 btc per share before electricity costs. Am will likely sell chips and also expand self mining r selling hashes through cloud mining. I'm thinking we will have dividends in excess of .25 btc per share this year after chips are deployed but I'm sure I'm missing something crucial. Hasn't stopped me from pick up more at a good price.

I would love for someone to tell me I'm wrong so I can just give up on AM and hold BTC for the long haul.

Disclaimer: I own AM shares.


The current block number is ~341,660 and the next halving takes place at block 480,000 (sometime in late summer / early fall 2016).  So there are ~138,000 blocks to go or about 3,500,000 bitcoins left.

In order to have 0.25 btc / share, AM with 400,000 share would need to mine 100,000 after hardware costs, electricity, maintenance, salary, rent, etc.  These costs are highly variable.  Lets say they are making 25% 'profit' (only AM knows this number, this may be way too high, but let's go with it for this calculation).  This means that AM needs to mine 400,000 bitcoins out of the next 3,500,000.  Put it another way, AM needs to have ~11% of network hashrate until the next halving (18 months or so).

This is just a quick calculation based on some highly variable numbers.  Is this possible?  I have no idea.  I just did a quick calculation based on your post.  

Would that calculation not be for AM to pay out .25 btc a share?
That is entirely different to being worth IMO, you have future worth to factor in.
If stocks can pay out even 25% interest they will probably shoot up in price, and be considered a great investment.

[Chris_Sabian]

If the chips perform as expected and they replace the AMHash operation with gen 4 then they will have 20phs of cloud mining to sell or self mine with. That's without expanding capacity which they should be able to do. 20 phs might be about 6% of the network which over its useful life should probably mine close to 0.09 btc per share before electricity costs. Am will likely sell chips and also expand self mining r selling hashes through cloud mining. I'm thinking we will have dividends in excess of .25 btc per share this year after chips are deployed but I'm sure I'm missing something crucial. Hasn't stopped me from pick up more at a good price.

I would love for someone to tell me I'm wrong so I can just give up on AM and hold BTC for the long haul.

Disclaimer: I own AM shares.


The current block number is ~341,660 and the next halving takes place at block 480,000 (sometime in late summer / early fall 2016).  So there are ~138,000 blocks to go or about 3,500,000 bitcoins left.

In order to have 0.25 btc / share, AM with 400,000 share would need to mine 100,000 after hardware costs, electricity, maintenance, salary, rent, etc.  These costs are highly variable.  Lets say they are making 25% 'profit' (only AM knows this number, this may be way too high, but let's go with it for this calculation).  This means that AM needs to mine 400,000 bitcoins out of the next 3,500,000.  Put it another way, AM needs to have ~11% of network hashrate until the next halving (18 months or so).

This is just a quick calculation based on some highly variable numbers.  Is this possible?  I have no idea.  I just did a quick calculation based on your post.  

Would that calculation not be for AM to pay out .25 btc a share?
That is entirely different to being worth IMO, you have future worth to factor in.
If stocks can pay out even 25% interest they will probably shoot up in price, and be considered a great investment.

That just was a very quick calculation to determine what AM would have to achieve to pay dividends of 0.25  / share.  Again, there are many variables.

Actual worth on the market is an entirely different calculation / voodoo that I cannot even guess that.  If anyone tells you otherwise, then they are just guess themselves.

[HarmonLi]

Well I agree that it is very difficult to make any exact assumption about the future share price of profitability of AM. There are just too many unknown and unforeseeable factors (the BTC price being probably the biggest here). That being said, I think it's possible for AM to pay out at 0.1 BTC/share combined in the future, so a share price below 0.1 BTC seems really deflated, IMO.

[HarmonLi]

this all boils down to who gets their gear plugged in first, we wont know this until its happened. You can keep an eye on the hash rate charts though

Yeah, I believe FC will address the testing or deployment of the BE300 chip before he deploys major hash rate, so I don't see AM influencing the total hash rate at this time, unfortunately. But if they do plan to launch a big time BE300 farm, we may see the hash rate rising beautifully!