ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[237]

I like how people without AM shares try to FUD the price down.

I am glad, that i have my shares and i won't even sell them for 3BTC/share.
Why? Simple: i can see past the next 4 weeks and look at what those shares will give
me in dividends in the next 10 or so years. When you extend calculations to that
timeframe and take into account the value of the knowhow and perhaps patents
AM is accumulating, you come up with share prices of 5BTC pretty quickly.

I can understand, that it is too much to grasp for people without experience in
longterm investments.

[mrb]

Sorry, but no.  You'll have to dig a little deeper than that.

Well then show me friedcat's posts predating March 12 mentioning plans to expand beyond 50 Thash/s (or beyond 12+50 Thash/s) or plans to sell hw -> There are none.

From friedcat's post from August 9, 2012:

If our chips are successfully produced, all the following businesses will
contribute to the shareholders' return:
  Self-Mining with First Batch of Chips At least 12TH/s in
total, that is equivalent to 30MH/s per share, or 300MH/s per BTC.
  Hashrate/Chip/Board Selling Net profits are
conservatively calculated as $5 per GH/s. That roughly equals to 0.5BTC per
GH/s with the current BTC/USD exchange rate. It means that each time we sell
1TH/s of hashing power in various forms, the net profit per share will be
1.25mBTC, that is, 1.25% of the initial investment.
  Self-Mining after Mass Production Unlimited hashrate in
theory because of the low margin cost. But in reality we have to consider the
cost of management (labor) and place (rent). We believe an expansion to 50TH/s
is not hard to achieve. That pushes the hashrate per share to 155MH/s, or
1.55G/s per BTC.
  Next-Generation Products The plan will be discussed among
board members and approved by shareholders, because it would require keeping
some of the revenues instead of paying them all as dividends. The return of
this stage is difficult to estimate, since in the Bitcoin world everything may
happen and happens even quicklier than imagination. But we personally believe
that much more potential profits wait there.

This shows friedcat was undecided between selling hashrate contracts, or hardware. As I said, there were no definitive plans to sell hw. Even though it was always a possibility "up in the air".

237, I am not a "non-shareholder trying to FUD the price down". (First of all what makes you think I don't own undervalued IPO shares? ) I am sharing my honest opinion. Yes, ASICMINER may turn out to be the Microsoft of Bitcoin mining in which case 1 BTC / share may be undervalued. But my point is, so far, there is not enough data to support this future success. Possible yes. Very likely no. Again I am speaking as a very, very conservative investor. Sometimes these conservative positions can lead to miss insane investment opportunities, and that is fine.

[teek]

Sorry, but no.  You'll have to dig a little deeper than that.

Well then show me friedcat's posts predating March 12 mentioning plans to expand beyond 50 Thash/s (or beyond 12+50 Thash/s) or plans to sell hw -> There are none.

From friedcat's post from August 9, 2012:

If our chips are successfully produced, all the following businesses will
contribute to the shareholders' return:
  Self-Mining with First Batch of Chips At least 12TH/s in
total, that is equivalent to 30MH/s per share, or 300MH/s per BTC.
  Hashrate/Chip/Board Selling Net profits are
conservatively calculated as $5 per GH/s. That roughly equals to 0.5BTC per
GH/s with the current BTC/USD exchange rate. It means that each time we sell
1TH/s of hashing power in various forms, the net profit per share will be
1.25mBTC, that is, 1.25% of the initial investment.
  Self-Mining after Mass Production Unlimited hashrate in
theory because of the low margin cost. But in reality we have to consider the
cost of management (labor) and place (rent). We believe an expansion to 50TH/s
is not hard to achieve. That pushes the hashrate per share to 155MH/s, or
1.55G/s per BTC.
  Next-Generation Products The plan will be discussed among
board members and approved by shareholders, because it would require keeping
some of the revenues instead of paying them all as dividends. The return of
this stage is difficult to estimate, since in the Bitcoin world everything may
happen and happens even quicklier than imagination. But we personally believe
that much more potential profits wait there.

This shows friedcat was undecided between selling hashrate contracts, or hardware. As I said, there were no definitive plans to sell hw. Though it was always a possibility "up in the air".

Whatever you say bud.   All the guys that have been here since the beginning know what the deal is,  and the above post definitely is not the only data point.  Looks like the market agrees.

[vortex1878]

Sorry, but no.  You'll have to dig a little deeper than that.

Well then show me friedcat's posts predating March 12 mentioning plans to expand beyond 50 Thash/s (or beyond 12+50 Thash/s) or plans to sell hw -> There are none.

From friedcat's post from August 9, 2012:

If our chips are successfully produced, all the following businesses will
contribute to the shareholders' return:
  Self-Mining with First Batch of Chips At least 12TH/s in
total, that is equivalent to 30MH/s per share, or 300MH/s per BTC.
  Hashrate/Chip/Board Selling Net profits are
conservatively calculated as $5 per GH/s. That roughly equals to 0.5BTC per
GH/s with the current BTC/USD exchange rate. It means that each time we sell
1TH/s of hashing power in various forms, the net profit per share will be
1.25mBTC, that is, 1.25% of the initial investment.
  Self-Mining after Mass Production Unlimited hashrate in
theory because of the low margin cost. But in reality we have to consider the
cost of management (labor) and place (rent). We believe an expansion to 50TH/s
is not hard to achieve. That pushes the hashrate per share to 155MH/s, or
1.55G/s per BTC.
  Next-Generation Products The plan will be discussed among
board members and approved by shareholders, because it would require keeping
some of the revenues instead of paying them all as dividends. The return of
this stage is difficult to estimate, since in the Bitcoin world everything may
happen and happens even quicklier than imagination. But we personally believe
that much more potential profits wait there.

This shows friedcat was undecided between selling hashrate contracts, or hardware. As I said, there were no definitive plans to sell hw. Though it was always a possibility "up in the air".

So what does it matter if there were plans or not? If there were, the plan is being followed. If not, the plan changed. So what?!
Atm the best solution seems to be selling part of the batches.

[237]

Sorry, but no.  You'll have to dig a little deeper than that.

Well then show me friedcat's posts predating March 12 mentioning plans to expand beyond 50 Thash/s (or beyond 12+50 Thash/s) or plans to sell hw -> There are none.

From friedcat's post from August 9, 2012:

If our chips are successfully produced, all the following businesses will
contribute to the shareholders' return:
  Self-Mining with First Batch of Chips At least 12TH/s in
total, that is equivalent to 30MH/s per share, or 300MH/s per BTC.
  Hashrate/Chip/Board Selling Net profits are
conservatively calculated as $5 per GH/s. That roughly equals to 0.5BTC per
GH/s with the current BTC/USD exchange rate. It means that each time we sell
1TH/s of hashing power in various forms, the net profit per share will be
1.25mBTC, that is, 1.25% of the initial investment.
  Self-Mining after Mass Production Unlimited hashrate in
theory because of the low margin cost. But in reality we have to consider the
cost of management (labor) and place (rent). We believe an expansion to 50TH/s
is not hard to achieve. That pushes the hashrate per share to 155MH/s, or
1.55G/s per BTC.
  Next-Generation Products The plan will be discussed among
board members and approved by shareholders, because it would require keeping
some of the revenues instead of paying them all as dividends. The return of
this stage is difficult to estimate, since in the Bitcoin world everything may
happen and happens even quicklier than imagination. But we personally believe
that much more potential profits wait there.

This shows friedcat was undecided between selling hashrate contracts, or hardware. As I said, there were no definitive plans to sell hw. Even though it was always a possibility "up in the air".

237, I am not a "non-shareholder trying to FUD the price down". (First of all what makes you think I don't own undervalued IPO shares? ) I am sharing my honest opinion. Yes, ASICMINER may turn out to be the Microsoft of Bitcoin mining in which case 1 BTC / share may be undervalued. But my point is, so far, there is not enough data to support this future success. Possible yes. Very likely no. Again I am speaking as a very, very conservative investor. Sometimes these conservative positions can lead to miss insane investment opportunities, and that is fine.

I don't see your name in my post nor a quote of your posts. Do you?
If you don't try to FUD the price down, and have shares, i don't get
why you feel that i meant you.
I didn't even read your posts until now.

[DiabloD3]

I'm auctioning off 371 shares.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179065.0

[SebastianJu]

No actual plan. But selling was planned before IPO.

No "plan", but "planned"? Your sentence is self-contradictory.

You dont get the difference? Then again... selling was planned even before IPO started. It was part of the business plan. But till some days ago there was no actual plan to start selling in the near future. This came on topic only because of the problems with deployment. Come on.. that cant be that hard...

[teek]

No actual plan. But selling was planned before IPO.

No "plan", but "planned"? Your sentence is self-contradictory.

You dont get the difference? Then again... selling was planned even before IPO started. It was part of the business plan. But till some days ago there was no actual plan to start selling in the near future. This came on topic only because of the problems with deployment. Come on.. that cant be that hard...

he's trollin

[SebastianJu]

No actual plan. But selling was planned before IPO.

No "plan", but "planned"? Your sentence is self-contradictory.

You dont get the difference? Then again... selling was planned even before IPO started. It was part of the business plan. But till some days ago there was no actual plan to start selling in the near future. This came on topic only because of the problems with deployment. Come on.. that cant be that hard...

he's trollin

If he still doesnt see the difference i guess youre right.

[creativex]

He disagrees with you guys. mrb is not a troll.

[Rodyland]

He disagrees with you guys. mrb is not a troll.

Maybe not a troll, but is a something.

Is there a word for someone who holds shares in a company, and yet tells everyone that he thinks those shares are overvalued?

You know, if you own shares in a company and you _truly_ believe the market is overvaluing them, then the _only_ sensible move is to sell and invest those funds elsewhere (that isn't overvalued).

Troll or fool or just disingenuous, it's just splitting hairs at this point.

Either mrb needs to sell his shares at this overvalued price, or he needs to acknowledge that at worst the current price is fair value.  Third option would be to stop trolling.

[Minor Miner]

He disagrees with you guys. mrb is not a troll.

Maybe not a troll, but is a something.

Is there a word for someone who holds shares in a company, and yet tells everyone that he thinks those shares are overvalued?

You know, if you own shares in a company and you _truly_ believe the market is overvaluing them, then the _only_ sensible move is to sell and invest those funds elsewhere (that isn't overvalued).

Troll or fool or just disingenuous, it's just splitting hairs at this point.

Either mrb needs to sell his shares at this overvalued price, or he needs to acknowledge that at worst the current price is fair value.  Third option would be to stop trolling.

Generally someone like that is buying more shares and trying to talk the price down.   Like people who post "I cannot believe anyone would bid over 20B for a blade, they must be crazy to outbid someone as smart as me...

[Rodyland]

He disagrees with you guys. mrb is not a troll.

Maybe not a troll, but is a something.

Is there a word for someone who holds shares in a company, and yet tells everyone that he thinks those shares are overvalued?

You know, if you own shares in a company and you _truly_ believe the market is overvaluing them, then the _only_ sensible move is to sell and invest those funds elsewhere (that isn't overvalued).

Troll or fool or just disingenuous, it's just splitting hairs at this point.

Either mrb needs to sell his shares at this overvalued price, or he needs to acknowledge that at worst the current price is fair value.  Third option would be to stop trolling.

Generally someone like that is buying more shares and trying to talk the price down.   Like people who post "I cannot believe anyone would bid over 20B for a blade, they must be crazy to outbid someone as smart as me...

So... Whilst maybe not technically trolling, the difference doesn't really seem worth splitting hairs over .

So mrb are you a troll or are you going to offer up forsale all your asicminer shares ?
             

[mrb]

I was making a point, not trolling. I wanted to underline the difference between a company having a vague idea ("we may want to sell hw in the future") versus a company having a clear execution plan ("we will sell product X, having specs X, at price X, we estimate X in revenues, the risks are X, we will do X to minimize them").

Eventually, a company that has a clear vision and plan is more valuable than a company with the same resources and people but with no vision and no plan.

I have argued in the past that ASICMINER should sell hardware. Even today, friedcat is not saying much about his plan. How many blades will he sell? How will he determine the price? Will he continue to do auctions or set fixed prices? If all these questions were answered, it would raise the value of ASICMINER in my eyes.

[seleme]

Well, I've been wrong the other day when I said 0.85 shares were high so I'd probably be if I say 1.6 are high. I'm sure they'll rise more now as it's obvious asicminer has lot of enthusiastic shareholders that pump it's value very religiously but it's still way too expensive just as 10GH hashing power for 60BTC (at the moment, who knows where it will finish) is way too much.

I'm kinda jealous of you early holders, I know, but no chance I'd buy it even if I know they'll rise. It's just not something that has any kind of natural support to rise so much, it's bubbled as hell and no way both shares as well as company products should cost so much.

Overvalued? I bought some days ago some more shares. I can earn with BTC, when the exchange course is rising, but when i invest the BTC in Asicminer Shares i can earn even more in form of dividends. And the shareprice was stable. In fact it even went higher now. And when i see that deployment of more hashpowr will start in some days and selling hardware on top... then im pretty sure the shareprice will go up more...

Yes, it's overvalued due to constant hype by it's backers and shareholders. No chance it's shares should have that price based on strictly economic value. It doesn't matter for people who hold those shares as long as they profit from them of course, and it would probably be profitable to buy them at these prices but they are overvalued, just as those asic boards being sold on auction now.

AM looks like one of rare reliable companies people were investing into here so everyone get excited when they fart specially when "everyone" hold some of their shares. Fair play, I'm cool with it but I don't buy "it's not overvalued" bullshit because it is. 60 btc for 10 GH hashing power, lol and share gets doubled for that. ycnmiu

[louong]

I mean there are companies out there like apple... they dont even pay dividends. But the people invest because they think the value is stable or that the shareprice is going up even. Nothing different here, only with dividends on top.

Agree with most of your post, but just a little nitpick/correction... While it is true that for the longest time Apple did not pay dividends and shareholders held because of the value of the company, Apple has started paying dividends since Aug. 2012.

[Rodyland]

I was making a point, not trolling. I wanted to underline the difference between a company having a vague idea ("we may want to sell hw in the future") versus a company having a clear execution plan ("we will sell product X, having specs X, at price X, we estimate X in revenues, the risks are X, we will do X to minimize them").

Eventually, a company that has a clear vision and plan is more valuable than a company with the same resources and people but with no vision and no plan.

I have argued in the past that ASICMINER should sell hardware. Even today, friedcat is not saying much about his plan. How many blades will he sell? How will he determine the price? Will he continue to do auctions or set fixed prices? If all these questions were answered, it would raise the value of ASICMINER in my eyes.

You stated that the shares are overvalued:

And so? That alone, tripling the dividend from .007 to .021, is still way too insignificant to justify 1 BTC per share.

You even quoted yourself stating that AM shares are overpriced:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg1613133#msg1613133

You claim you're not FUDing the price down, and merely sharing your opinion:

237, I am not a "non-shareholder trying to FUD the price down". (First of all what makes you think I don't own undervalued IPO shares? ) I am sharing my honest opinion.

So, you honestly believe AM shares are overpriced, and you are merely sharing your opinion.  Fine, money talks and bullshit walks - sell your shares, or STFU and stop trolling.

[organofcorti]

So, you honestly believe AM shares are overpriced, and you are merely sharing your opinion.  Fine, money talks and bullshit walks - sell your shares, or STFU and stop trolling.

Having a well argued opinion is not trolling. Why does mrb's opinion upset you so much?

[ar9]

Not going to weigh in on share price, I only hold a few so I don't really care any way, just wanted to give some praise to the company and friedcat for actually producing ASIC miners and selling them.

Love their company mission and the way they are doing business.

If this continues, this company can only go up.
Good job, ASICMINER!

[hammurabi]

Because they are trolling themselves

I value mrb's opinion and share some of his concerns.
Same as I value the knowledge that we have some religious fanatics in shareholder group