ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Rodyland]

So, you honestly believe AM shares are overpriced, and you are merely sharing your opinion.  Fine, money talks and bullshit walks - sell your shares, or STFU and stop trolling.

Having a well argued opinion is not trolling. Why does mrb's opinion upset you so much?

His "opinion" doesn't upset me.

What "upsets" me is his opinion is not really his opinion - well argued or not.  If he truly believed what he claims then he'd sell his shares today, before the market regains its senses.  Even buy back in later and make a killing, if that's his thing.

He isn't selling his shares, so he's not really expressing his opinion - he's trolling and spreading FUD.

[SebastianJu]

I mean there are companies out there like apple... they dont even pay dividends. But the people invest because they think the value is stable or that the shareprice is going up even. Nothing different here, only with dividends on top.

Agree with most of your post, but just a little nitpick/correction... While it is true that for the longest time Apple did not pay dividends and shareholders held because of the value of the company, Apple has started paying dividends since Aug. 2012.

Youre right... it was a long time this way.

Yes, it's overvalued due to constant hype by it's backers and shareholders. No chance it's shares should have that price based on strictly economic value. It doesn't matter for people who hold those shares as long as they profit from them of course, and it would probably be profitable to buy them at these prices but they are overvalued, just as those asic boards being sold on auction now.

AM looks like one of rare reliable companies people were investing into here so everyone get excited when they fart specially when "everyone" hold some of their shares. Fair play, I'm cool with it but I don't buy "it's not overvalued" bullshit because it is. 60 btc for 10 GH hashing power, lol and share gets doubled for that. ycnmiu

On what base do you value the asicminer shares to say that they are overvalued? Mostly the values are only made up from the payment of dividends. If that would be the correct way to determine the value then apple stocks wouldnt have had a value in the past when they didnt pay dividends.
So the value of the shares in first part are showing the value of a part of the company. And thats a different thing then. Because what value does Asicminer has divided through 400,000 shares? Thats not only the price of the current hardware, its the 250TH that are already paid and i believe the knowledge for the Asicchips are worth something too. Then think about the datacenter they created and so on.
Its the same like a miner isnt worth only the dividend. The miner is worth its worth for itself and the dividends on top.
So i dont think that the dividend is the only value to take into account.

Eventually, a company that has a clear vision and plan is more valuable than a company with the same resources and people but with no vision and no plan.

There was a plan. And this plan was to mine for the company as far as possible. Because thats the most valuable. So i dont get what youre speaking about that not selling in the near future is the same as having no vision and no plan. Or that selling would be better then selfmine. You have to be lucky to get the same revenue out of selling instead of selfmining. Because a buyer wants to break even in some time. If you mine for yourself you can mine even after months with breakeven. It mines and mines while a sell is a one-time-gain and later others earn the money.

[mrb]

Rodyland: and what makes you think I have not started selling my shares?

Just like the Bitcoin bubble to $266. I was openly saying it was a bubble and that a crash was coming. And I acted accordingly selling some of my BTC holdings.

I do not understand why you see my arguments as "FUD" or "trolling". I think I express my ideas and reasoning clearly.

[teek]

So, you honestly believe AM shares are overpriced, and you are merely sharing your opinion.  Fine, money talks and bullshit walks - sell your shares, or STFU and stop trolling.

Having a well argued opinion is not trolling. Why does mrb's opinion upset you so much?

If it was well argued that would be one thing.  mrb is basically like  "nope, asicminer never intended to sell"  "nope, asicminer never intended to do more than 12TH"  "nope asicminer doesnt have potential past what is 2 weeks in front of my face,  nope nope nope"

Overvalued today?  Sure maybe a little,  but what are people expecting?  A 300% dividend yield annually?  I'm no securities expert but if this was on the NASDAQ with audited financials it would be trading at like 5+ btc and yielding like 15% max.

Because they are trolling themselves

I value mrb's opinion and share some of his concerns.
Same as I value the knowledge that we have some religious fanatics in shareholder group

 
Definitely not no religious fanatic and have some concerns of my own.  However, trying to deny that their was never a plan to sell or never a plan to expand, or invest into next gen technology?   Man,  these were the reasons i bought to begin with!

[Rodyland]

Rodyland: and what makes you think I have not started selling my shares?

Well, you didn't offer me any!! 

[SebastianJu]

Overvalued today?  Sure maybe a little,  but what are people expecting?  A 300% dividend yield annually?  I'm no securities expert but if this was on the NASDAQ with audited financials it would be trading at like 5+ btc and yielding like 15% max.

I think so too... how can one think its overvalued when only the start of the auctions lead to a doubled shareprice? Then there is no reason to believe that Asicminer will stop working soon. They have a valueable knowledge, they can chorn out Asicminers cheap and fast and it will be no problem in the future to rule nearly half of the hashingpower of the network. Who will compete against? Even above that range they could sell Miners to maximize the profit.
And its already announced that the power supply problems will be solved. That means the hashrate will rise soon. And the auctions started... that means earnings from selling miners.
So i only think the buyers, like myself, i bought some days ago some more shares, see the potential of Asicminer. You shouldnt judge the value only on the dividends. If one would try that no one should have invested in Asicminer at the start because no dividends happened there for a long time. No people invest again into future dividends. I dont see thats wrong.
Of course something can happen again that prevents further deployment... but in the long run... Asicminer will rule. If you think thats wrong please explain.

[ThickAsThieves]

For the record, I no longer hold any AM shares, and you might recall me questioning the price earlier today. Used to hold about 350, now I have $ instead.

I do think AM is a pretty cool company, and their latest hardware releases are cool too. Just not 1.6btc/share cool, nor 60btc per blade cool.

For those of you who think share value should not be influenced by USD/BTC value consider these points:

1. If BTC were worth $1, is a mining investment better or worse? How about $1000?
2. If one sells their shares at 1btc+, sells that btc at $90, and USD/BTC falls to $45, AND share value doesn't move, how many shares can I buy if I use my cash?
3. If the % of AM network hashing decreases, and difficulty increases, and BTC/USD stays the same, do you value your shares the same?

[mrb]

Definitely not no religious fanatic and have some concerns of my own.  However, trying to deny that their was never a plan to sell or never a plan to expand, or invest into next gen technology?

By "no plan" I mean that for example friedcat has not communicated a plan that allows shareholders to answer the following questions:
- what is the process node of the next gen chips (110nm, 90nm, etc)?
- what are the estimated NRE costs?
- how many blades will be sold?
- what are the estimated revenues for the total sale of blades?

Also, as of March 12, shareholders could not answer the following question:
- what hashrate will ASICMINER expand to beyond 50 (or 50+12) Thash/s ?

As of today, he communicated 200 Thash/s, but shareholders still cannot answer:
- where will the 200 Thash/s be hosted? (this is 1.5 megawatt!)
- how fast can they expect to deploy it?

Because shareholders cannot answer these questions, they cannot estimate the risk or the worth of the ASICMINER shares.

I think there was a confusion as to what I meant exactly by "no plan". I hope to have cleared that up.

[SebastianJu]

1. If BTC were worth $1, is a mining investment better or worse? How about $1000?
2. If one sells their shares at 1btc+, sells that btc at $90, and USD/BTC falls to $45, AND share value doesn't move, how many shares can I buy if I use my cash?
3. If the % of the network hashing decreases, and difficulty increases, and BTC/USD stays the same, do you value your shares the same?

When i spoke about, that the crash had no influence on the shareprice, then thats true for the last crash.

Your first point is valid but there is a certain amoung of value for a BTC where it doesnt matter anymore how much the BTC is worth. Because as long as the BTCs earned brings a profit in fiat its worth the efford. Every crash above that, and that is the same for $260 to $60, is still profit. The same profit like before in BTC, less in Fiat, but its profit. And as long as the shares are priced in BTC the shareprice doesnt change from that. Of course a crash to $1 would be another thing.

Point 2 doesnt have to do with shareprice. Its currencytrading. If you are lucky you make a win and have more than before. Be it BTC, Asicminer shares or USD.

3. The mined coins would decrease, hopefully thats compensated with more hashpower coming online. But the shareprice should go down this way. At least a bit.

@mrb... ok, so i misunderstood your use of "plan". Youre correct that friedcat lacks information. I believe its because of the much work and very often because they simply dont know yet. Its decided on the run. At least it makes sense to be flexible in such points.
Regarding the questions... ill write what i know.
> - what is the process node of the next gen chips (110nm, 90nm, etc)?
I dont have a clue. I believe even friedcat dont know because its not needed to create new chips as of now. Its more effective to simply create 2 of the old ones instead build new ones.
>- what are the estimated NRE costs?
..
>- how many blades will be sold?
He only said that it will be decided on the fly because in the next days the power supply will be installed so that deployment can go forward. So i guess they dont know it too.
>- what are the estimated revenues for the total sale of blades?
Who should know how the auctions end?

>Also, as of March 12, shareholders could not answer the following question:
>- what hashrate will ASICMINER expand to beyond 50 (or 50+12) Thash/s ?
No info because its decided on the fly. Friedcat said once that keeping hashpower is an option to not go above 50% network hashpower. But i think it can be that they will sell at the same time while keeping low under 50%.
But no fixed details on this because its not decided yet.

>As of today, he communicated 200 Thash/s, but shareholders still cannot answer:
>- where will the 200 Thash/s be hosted? (this is 1.5 megawatt!)
The 200TH should be installed in the created datacenter whose power supply is integrated in the coming days. Of course not all of it could be deployed because of >50%.
- how fast can they expect to deploy it?
He didnt say a word about. He only said that he made employees ready and all kind of companies that help in creating. This way the deployment should go way faster than the old deployment.

[Noitev]

Can anyone answer why we don't solo mine?

[teek]

Definitely not no religious fanatic and have some concerns of my own.  However, trying to deny that their was never a plan to sell or never a plan to expand, or invest into next gen technology?

By "no plan" I mean that for example friedcat has not communicated a plan that allows shareholders to answer the following questions:
- what is the process node of the next gen chips (110nm, 90nm, etc)?
- what are the estimated NRE costs?
- how many blades will be sold?
- what are the estimated revenues for the total sale of blades?

Also, as of March 12, shareholders could not answer the following question:
- what hashrate will ASICMINER expand to beyond 50 (or 50+12) Thash/s ?

As of today, he communicated 200 Thash/s, but shareholders still cannot answer:
- where will the 200 Thash/s be hosted? (this is 1.5 megawatt!)
- how fast can they expect to deploy it?

Because shareholders cannot answer these questions, they cannot estimate the risk or the worth of the ASICMINER shares.

I think there was a confusion as to what I meant exactly by "no plan". I hope to have cleared that up.

I agree that these are legitimate points of concern and I definitely share them,  but these are not the same arguments you were making just a page or two ago..  

However, I don't agree that because some information is missing, that people cannot estimate the risk or the worth based on the information that IS available..  that doesn't make any sense.   The information that is known has put the shares into the range they are trading in now,  of course there is some potential priced in and some uncertainty ignored   holding the price back.  If all this information that you seek were to be available and favorable to shareholders,  I suspect we would find a much different price than now...  

[arklan]

just to double check - has there been any further word on the USB honey bee miners?

[SebastianJu]

just to double check - has there been any further word on the USB honey bee miners?

No info except the one that Asicminer is giving them away for free for special friends or business partners. No word about selling yet.

Can anyone answer why we don't solo mine?

I dont have read a reason for that either except of variance. The chance of finding a block is higher with a pool with more hashing power. Though i dont know why it should be so much better to pay a fee. I cant imagine that variance gives 3 or more percent that the poolfees takes away.

[organofcorti]

Can anyone answer why we don't solo mine?

I dont have read a reason for that either except of variance. The chance of finding a block is higher with a pool with more hashing power. Though i dont know why it should be so much better to pay a fee. I cant imagine that variance gives 3 or more percent that the poolfees takes away.

Variance is one answer. Accountability to shareholders is another - it's easier for shareholders to estimate the earnings if the stats are on a public pool.

[rdponticelli]

Can anyone answer why we don't solo mine?

I dont have read a reason for that either except of variance. The chance of finding a block is higher with a pool with more hashing power. Though i dont know why it should be so much better to pay a fee. I cant imagine that variance gives 3 or more percent that the poolfees takes away.

Variance is one answer. Accountability to shareholders is another - it's easier for shareholders to estimate the earnings if the stats are on a public pool.

ASICMINER could mine on a public p2pool instance...

[organofcorti]

Can anyone answer why we don't solo mine?

I dont have read a reason for that either except of variance. The chance of finding a block is higher with a pool with more hashing power. Though i dont know why it should be so much better to pay a fee. I cant imagine that variance gives 3 or more percent that the poolfees takes away.

Variance is one answer. Accountability to shareholders is another - it's easier for shareholders to estimate the earnings if the stats are on a public pool.

ASICMINER could mine on a public p2pool instance...

... and that's not solomining.

[iCEBREAKER]

Can anyone answer why we don't solo mine?

I dont have read a reason for that either except of variance. The chance of finding a block is higher with a pool with more hashing power. Though i dont know why it should be so much better to pay a fee. I cant imagine that variance gives 3 or more percent that the poolfees takes away.

Variance is one answer. Accountability to shareholders is another - it's easier for shareholders to estimate the earnings if the stats are on a public pool.

ASICMINER could mine on a public p2pool instance...

AM has an obligation to shareholders to maximize profits by mining at whichever pool is the fastest and most reliable.  Right now, that's BTC Guild.

AM has only begun their roll-out/ramp-up process.  They need to use Guild as a benchmark for testing and optimization, before introducing more variables into the equation.

AM should not lose focus and drift away from their core competencies by messing about with P2Pool or homegrown solutions.  Look at CoinLab to see why...   

[gmouse]

AM has an obligation to shareholders to maximize profits by mining at whichever pool is the fastest and most reliable.  Right now, that's BTC Guild.

AM has only begun their roll-out/ramp-up process.  They need to use Guild as a benchmark for testing and optimization, before introducing more variables into the equation.

AM should not lose focus and drift away from their core competencies by messing about with P2Pool or homegrown solutions.  Look at CoinLab to see why...   

Would it be a win-win for BTC Guild to share their code and and other details with ASICMINER to set up something as reliable for AM use?  With the slight modification that any guest can publicly see the hashrate from the miners (All AM in this case) -- this preserves the need for transparency, and relieves the pressure that BTC Guild is feeling when it is approaching 50% of total hashing power.

[fcmatt]

AM has an obligation to shareholders to maximize profits by mining at whichever pool is the fastest and most reliable.  Right now, that's BTC Guild.

AM has only begun their roll-out/ramp-up process.  They need to use Guild as a benchmark for testing and optimization, before introducing more variables into the equation.

AM should not lose focus and drift away from their core competencies by messing about with P2Pool or homegrown solutions.  Look at CoinLab to see why...   

Would it be a win-win for BTC Guild to share their code and and other details with ASICMINER to set up something as reliable for AM use?  With the slight modification that any guest can publicly see the hashrate from the miners (All AM in this case) -- this preserves the need for transparency, and relieves the pressure that BTC Guild is feeling when it is approaching 50% of total hashing power.

For craps sake... Just threaten btcguild with leaving unless they charge less. Not rocket science.
I am also amazed a company can design an asic but cannot setup a pool to mine at and even let others join for lower variance.

[Rodyland]

Current auction price total: BTC625.  The auction still has a day to go, although it is slowing.

If we assume the cost of the units construction is paid for, and ignore shipping, this sale of 100GHash/sec will provide mBTC1.5625 per share.

BTC625 for 100GH/s is BTC6.25 / GH/sec

I'm still of the opinion that the income from hardware sales plus the income from mining/future deployments means the current price in the order of BTC1.25/share is a pretty good deal for anyone who wants to invest their bitcoins in mining but doesn't want to go all out and buy a multi-thousand USD/multi-tens of bitcoin mining unit.