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ft73
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July 03, 2013, 05:07:49 PM |
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I have been observing the price of AM shares as compared to the price of BTC for a few months and it seems like there is very little, or even no correlation between the two.
It may take a wild swing down or up to change that.
The share price of AM seems to be directly correlated to the the dividend regardless of the BTC price.
Since the price of BTC does impact the value of the dividend, it will be interesting to see how long these correlations, or lack of correlations, hold up.
are you sure? please share your graph .... I could have sworn last week's dividends were average and the share price jumped massively My observations are informal so there isn't a graph. Your comment actually supports my thoughts. While the dividend was average, news came out shortly after about an increase in mining hash rates and ultra-fast sales of mining gear which meant a big increase for this week's dividend. The share price jumped due to speculation of the dividend, not the price of BTC. I think we got some inverse correlation lately. ASICminer became some sort of "defensive" security. Many other securities show the same. |
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empoweoqwj
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July 03, 2013, 05:08:27 PM |
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I have been observing the price of AM shares as compared to the price of BTC for a few months and it seems like there is very little, or even no correlation between the two.
It may take a wild swing down or up to change that.
The share price of AM seems to be directly correlated to the the dividend regardless of the BTC price.
Since the price of BTC does impact the value of the dividend, it will be interesting to see how long these correlations, or lack of correlations, hold up.
are you sure? please share your graph .... I could have sworn last week's dividends were average and the share price jumped massively My observations are informal so there isn't a graph. Your comment actually supports my thoughts. While the dividend was average, news came out shortly after about an increase in mining hash rates and ultra-fast sales of mining gear which meant a big increase for this week's dividend. The share price jumped due to speculation of the dividend, not the price of BTC. Of course the share price of AM is related to the performance of AM as company. You aren't writing anything new here. We all know this. |
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ft73
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July 03, 2013, 05:09:44 PM |
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Don't worry, you haven't sold anything.
Very true, i'm actually buying. |
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madams
Newbie
 Offline
Activity: 25
Merit: 0
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July 03, 2013, 05:10:17 PM |
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I have been observing the price of AM shares as compared to the price of BTC for a few months and it seems like there is very little, or even no correlation between the two.
It may take a wild swing down or up to change that.
The share price of AM seems to be directly correlated to the the dividend regardless of the BTC price.
Since the price of BTC does impact the value of the dividend, it will be interesting to see how long these correlations, or lack of correlations, hold up.
are you sure? please share your graph .... I could have sworn last week's dividends were average and the share price jumped massively My observations are informal so there isn't a graph. Your comment actually supports my thoughts. While the dividend was average, news came out shortly after about an increase in mining hash rates and ultra-fast sales of mining gear which meant a big increase for this week's dividend. The share price jumped due to speculation of the dividend, not the price of BTC. Of course the share price of AM is related to the performance of AM as company. You aren't writing anything new here. We all know this. And the value of the company is based on the value of BTC, which is not being reflected in the price of AM. That is my point. |
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empoweoqwj
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July 03, 2013, 05:10:43 PM |
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I have been observing the price of AM shares as compared to the price of BTC for a few months and it seems like there is very little, or even no correlation between the two.
It may take a wild swing down or up to change that.
The share price of AM seems to be directly correlated to the the dividend regardless of the BTC price.
Since the price of BTC does impact the value of the dividend, it will be interesting to see how long these correlations, or lack of correlations, hold up.
are you sure? please share your graph .... I could have sworn last week's dividends were average and the share price jumped massively My observations are informal so there isn't a graph. Your comment actually supports my thoughts. While the dividend was average, news came out shortly after about an increase in mining hash rates and ultra-fast sales of mining gear which meant a big increase for this week's dividend. The share price jumped due to speculation of the dividend, not the price of BTC. I think we got some inverse correlation lately. ASICminer became some sort of "defensive" security. Many other securities show the same. Nonsense. AM share price has been going up for other reasons. Coincidence != cause+effect. |
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empoweoqwj
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July 03, 2013, 05:11:36 PM |
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I have been observing the price of AM shares as compared to the price of BTC for a few months and it seems like there is very little, or even no correlation between the two.
It may take a wild swing down or up to change that.
The share price of AM seems to be directly correlated to the the dividend regardless of the BTC price.
Since the price of BTC does impact the value of the dividend, it will be interesting to see how long these correlations, or lack of correlations, hold up.
are you sure? please share your graph .... I could have sworn last week's dividends were average and the share price jumped massively My observations are pulled from my arse so there isn't a graph. ftfy  lmao - hope no graphs fall out |
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kokojie
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1003
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July 03, 2013, 05:12:28 PM |
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Is anyone else concerned about the declining BTC price which is now about $84 on MtGox?
It is about 15% lower than the price at last week's dividend payout which was around $100 per BTC.
If the dividend comes in at 0.025 BTC, the corresponding value would be about 0.02.
Thoughts?
I would think that the declining BTC value is built into the increasing price of AM shares by those investing. That's non-sense, decreasing BTC value has the effect of slightly decreasing AM share value, but mostly it should stay uneffected by it. (decreasing BTC value means fixed cost in USD are higher, requiring more BTC to be converted to USD to pay the bills.) |
btc: 15sFnThw58hiGHYXyUAasgfauifTEB1ZF6
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TsuyokuNaritai
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July 03, 2013, 05:12:34 PM |
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While the dividend was average, news came out shortly after about an increase in mining hash rates and ultra-fast sales of mining gear which meant a big increase for this week's dividend. The share price jumped due to speculation of the dividend, not the price of BTC.
Not really this week's dividend, it's more about bright future in the coming months. I won't be shocked if today's dividend isn't spectacular. |
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ft73
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July 03, 2013, 05:12:44 PM |
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Nonsense. AM share price has been going up for other reasons. Coincidence != cause+effect.
Ok. Your opinion. Coincidence. Guess i'm lucky then. As long as this makes me profitable i like it. We'll see what happens when BTC starts again going up. |
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chkgk
Member
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Activity: 63
Merit: 10
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July 03, 2013, 05:15:20 PM |
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chiming in here: correlation != causality.
Sure, there is correlation between btc/usd and the AM share price. There also is correlation between dividends and share price and one might also see causality in these correlations, BUT with the lack of information about the company's financials, hardware, business plan etc we are extremely likely to miss variables that effect our dependent variable significantly. Thus all our estimates are biased anyway.
Just my two econometrics / time series bitcents.
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madams
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 25
Merit: 0
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July 03, 2013, 05:18:31 PM |
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I have been observing the price of AM shares as compared to the price of BTC for a few months and it seems like there is very little, or even no correlation between the two.
It may take a wild swing down or up to change that.
The share price of AM seems to be directly correlated to the the dividend regardless of the BTC price.
Since the price of BTC does impact the value of the dividend, it will be interesting to see how long these correlations, or lack of correlations, hold up.
are you sure? please share your graph .... I could have sworn last week's dividends were average and the share price jumped massively My observations are pulled from my arse so there isn't a graph. ftfy lmao - hope no graphs fall out Looks like your value-add to the forum is crude humor... |
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empoweoqwj
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July 03, 2013, 05:18:51 PM |
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Is anyone else concerned about the declining BTC price which is now about $84 on MtGox?
It is about 15% lower than the price at last week's dividend payout which was around $100 per BTC.
If the dividend comes in at 0.025 BTC, the corresponding value would be about 0.02.
Thoughts?
I would think that the declining BTC value is built into the increasing price of AM shares by those investing. That's non-sense, decreasing BTC value has the effect of slightly decreasing AM share value, but mostly it should stay uneffected by it. (decreasing BTC value means fixed cost in USD are higher, requiring more BTC to be converted to USD to pay the bills.) Agreed. The idea that if BTC plummets everyone is going to go to the safe haven of "bitcoin mining" needs their head examined. |
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ft73
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July 03, 2013, 05:20:17 PM |
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chiming in here: correlation != causality.
Sure, there is correlation between btc/usd and the AM share price. There also is correlation between dividends and share price and one might also see causality in these correlations, BUT with the lack of information about the company's financials, hardware, business plan etc we are extremely likely to miss variables that effect our dependent variable significantly. Thus all our estimates are biased anyway.
Just my two econometrics / time series bitcents.
Sure, what you say is right. What i was trying to convey is that lately looks like many people is putting coins into ASICMiner instead to just plain sell them. It's the same kind of behaviour you may observe on BTC / LTC. |
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SmiGueL
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July 03, 2013, 05:21:05 PM |
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3k on sales?  Makes 0.023 BTC/share |
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empoweoqwj
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July 03, 2013, 05:21:17 PM |
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I have been observing the price of AM shares as compared to the price of BTC for a few months and it seems like there is very little, or even no correlation between the two.
It may take a wild swing down or up to change that.
The share price of AM seems to be directly correlated to the the dividend regardless of the BTC price.
Since the price of BTC does impact the value of the dividend, it will be interesting to see how long these correlations, or lack of correlations, hold up.
are you sure? please share your graph .... I could have sworn last week's dividends were average and the share price jumped massively My observations are pulled from my arse so there isn't a graph. ftfy lmao - hope no graphs fall out Looks like your value-add to the forum is crude humor... thank you kindly sir. your "value-add" (that's not a word by the way) appears to be extrapolating false logic from non-existent research. Keep it up. |
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ft73
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July 03, 2013, 05:23:01 PM |
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empoweoqwj
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July 03, 2013, 05:23:20 PM |
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0.02297
is that a prediction or actual result? |
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SmiGueL
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July 03, 2013, 05:24:20 PM |
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0.02297
is that a prediction or actual result? Both  Prediction of dividends, and a result of all the coins currently in the dividend-payment-adress. PAID!  |
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