ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[JordanL]

This low of a price is mind boggling when you consider the dividend history he has put up....I think that tells us a lot.
Most of these so called investors are really speculators looking only at jumping onto the next high speed train.

Slow and steady wins the race kiddies...no one ever told them the story of the tortoise and the hare?

[1713585763]

1713585763

[AngelSky]

This low of a price is mind boggling when you consider the dividend history he has put up....I think that tells us a lot.
Most of these so called investors are really speculators looking only at jumping onto the next high speed train.

Slow and steady wins the race kiddies...no one ever told them the story of the tortoise and the hare?

Even if you believe that a company will succeed you can close a position and open it later at lower prices. If the market tells you that "sell" is the rule, then just sell high and buy back later. Get more shares to sell them when you get the "all-time-high" (if you are right about the success of this company). Nothing wrong here.

[aahzmundus]

I think the recent sell off has to deal with the liquidity of direct shares.   It seems like friedcat has gone to now only moving shares to new owners just before dividends on Wednesday.  I myself was attempting to move some shares to gain more liquidity and to be able to take part in some other bitcoin investments. Because everyone got their shares moved at one time this created a sell dump, and then minor panic.  I myself freaked out a bit before I realized this was probably the case.  so now I have to wait a bit for this to blow over because fuck selling AM for anything below 4, are people insane?

If you want to check my hypothesis see how many shares Burnside now controls over last week.  I know I can't be the only one who saw people doubling their money on an IPO in a few seconds and then wishing for more liquidity...

[btcbot]

I think the recent sell off has to deal with the liquidity of direct shares.   It seems like friedcat has gone to now only moving shares to new owners just before dividends on Wednesday.  I myself was attempting to move some shares to gain more liquidity and to be able to take part in some other bitcoin investments. Because everyone got their shares moved at one time this created a sell dump, and then minor panic.  I myself freaked out a bit before I realized this was probably the case.  so now I have to wait a bit for this to blow over because fuck selling AM for anything below 4, are people insane?

If you want to check my hypothesis see how many shares Burnside now controls over last week.  I know I can't be the only one who saw people doubling their money on an IPO in a few seconds and then wishing for more liquidity...

That makes sense, although there's only IceDrill coming up??  So, this is increased liquidity, plus panic, plus buy lower cuz it's going down? 

[Progressive]

People locking profits? Cashing out due to BTC/USD rate?

while I think the share price may take some more dips around 3.8, I think we are near the bottom of the slump.  I believe the jumps in hash rate are related to new hardware coming online, which means new hardware for sale will follow, soon.  With increased dividends from hardware sales, share prices will increase, likely hitting 5 btc within a few weeks.

I think there is not a lot of support under the share price since a lot of people sitting on profits they not locked in yet.  Also a lot of speculative weak hands.  Any negative catalyst and this will down below 3 quickly.  The long-term may be up, but I bet this see 3.0 before it sees 5 again. Regardless of your long-term perspective, their will be a better entry point for new coins.

[JimiQ84]

I don't know about others, I am just buying what I can afford :-) (which is not much unfortunately)

[MikkisJ]

Plus delays with hardware sales. And overall people think that competition is increasing with so many new ASIC producers.

The price of 5BTC and over was too high in my opinion, because own mining will probably produce 0.015 - 0.02BTC per week, but eventually hardware margins will be much lower. 0.036-0.038 dividends that AM gave out during the best weeks are not very likely in long term.

[bbxx]

unless friedcat announces small blade at 5btc~7GH with power supply and usb interface.

[velacreations]

the IPOs are losing value, fast.  I expect most of them to be close to or below IPO price by next week.

If we get an update from FC today, we may see a major share rebound.  I wish I had more coins to buy these cheap shares!

[ThickAsThieves]

Just an FYI, roughly 2000 AM shares were imported into BTCT over the past 2 days. My guess is that it is some seller(s) unloading some of that.

This used to happen all the time, but back then we had more buyers around to gobble it up. Now we are competing with all of the "hot" mining IPOs.

If AM does their job, the buyers may come back around when they see that AM shareholders get paid, while every other mining op watches the diff go up with no divs.

This is mostly speculation, and I may be biased, but it's my observation.

[Progressive]

Just an FYI, roughly 2000 AM shares were imported into BTCT over the past 2 days

Thanks for valuable info.

[velacreations]

Now we are competing with all of the "hot" mining IPOs.

I think you mean "hot potato".  How low will Labcoin and/or BtcGarden go?  I almost feel sorry for the guys that bought at 4X IPO price...

[SebastianJu]

anyone know what FAB AM uses? TSMC? and how will the latest avalon rumors, if true, affect AM going forward?

have they begun development on smaller chips yet?

They use TSMC.

Are you sure? I could not find a source for that.
The only thing I could find was in an old avalon status update, but that sounds like friedcat is not using TSMC.

From: http://www.bitcointrading.com/forum/asic-mining/avalon-asic-development-status-%28batch-1%29/

This whole process will take 30-50 days depending on the processor node technology used, mainly due to the increasing in layer number as you go down in processor size. for example, we have 29 layers, and since TSMC is one of the big companies in fabrication, each layer take 1.2 ( normal lot ) day per layer. in addition, accordingly to friedcat, their fab is producing 4 layers every week [odd, but I guess it is possible if fab is small].

Edit: found something from the man himself 

I apologize if this has been answered; what steps will be taking place in China, and what will be done elsewhere after shipping and customs clearance? Specifically, I would like to know about packaging, assembly, and self-mining.

For the first generation of products, all steps have been taking place and will happen in China. This including chips production, PCB production, slicing & packaging, assembly, and deploying, in different places though. For example, while the production is in where the foundries are, we have more freedom to choose a place with very inexpensive power source to do self-mining.

Ok, i cant find anymore that they use TSMC. Maybe im remembering wrong.

[calaber24p]

Just an FYI, roughly 2000 AM shares were imported into BTCT over the past 2 days. My guess is that it is some seller(s) unloading some of that.

This used to happen all the time, but back then we had more buyers around to gobble it up. Now we are competing with all of the "hot" mining IPOs.

If AM does their job, the buyers may come back around when they see that AM shareholders get paid, while every other mining op watches the diff go up with no divs.

This is mostly speculation, and I may be biased, but it's my observation.

When you say "imported", are you talking about dilution or are you talking about already owned shares being moved into the exchange ?

[velacreations]

When you say "imported", are you talking about dilution or are you talking about already owned shares being moved into the exchange ?

he's talking about people that own direct shares and move them into the pass-through on BTCT.co exchange

[Rival]

I have been considering an interesting scenario lately, and thought I would post this for comment. I think Avalon is really going to get the $200 million investment. Yifu has been incommunicado for nearly a month, and now he has "just gotten off the plane" and will make a "big announcement tomorrow". I know the WSJ article has been "debunked" but that is exactly what I would expect to have happen to leak when the parties are under NDA. I think it is a done deal, and Avalon will be pushing ahead with 28nm chip manufacturing. $200 million will certainly get them there, leaving pretty much everyone in the dust.

This was almost certainly going to happen sooner or later. ASIC development and sales are so red hot that it was only a matter of time before a mega investor saw an opportunity to position itself as the industry leader.

Friedcat has been very quiet lately himself. If this deal was indeed going through I find it unlikely FC did not hear whispers about it. Is it possible FC is courting a major VC deal as well? If the Avalon thing comes to pass, even the mightly FC might find his back against the wall.

I have no doubt real Wall Street money is looking hard at the opportunities for entry into the ASIC space. It has grown exponentially and shows no signs of slowing. I think the ASIC space will be almost unrecognizable 6 months from now. Things are changing so fast I can barely keep up with my own investments.

[btcbot]

I have been considering an interesting scenario lately, and thought I would post this for comment. I think Avalon is really going to get the $200 million investment. Yifu has been incommunicado for nearly a month, and now he has "just gotten off the plane" and will make a "big announcement tomorrow". I know the WSJ article has been "debunked" but that is exactly what I would expect to have happen to leak when the parties are under NDA. I think it is a done deal, and Avalon will be pushing ahead with 28nm chip manufacturing. $200 million will certainly get them there, leaving pretty much everyone in the dust.

This was almost certainly going to happen sooner or later. ASIC development and sales are so red hot that it was only a matter of time before a mega investor saw an opportunity to position itself as the industry leader.

Friedcat has been very quiet lately himself. If this deal was indeed going through I find it unlikely FC did not hear whispers about it. Is it possible FC is courting a major VC deal as well? If the Avalon thing comes to pass, even the mightly FC might find his back against the wall.

I have no doubt real Wall Street money is looking hard at the opportunities for entry into the ASIC space. It has grown exponentially and shows no signs of slowing. I think the ASIC space will be almost unrecognizable 6 months from now. Things are changing so fast I can barely keep up with my own investments.

Maybe that's what's moving this 2000 share whale to sell!

[blackswan]

I have been considering an interesting scenario lately, and thought I would post this for comment. I think Avalon is really going to get the $200 million investment. Yifu has been incommunicado for nearly a month, and now he has "just gotten off the plane" and will make a "big announcement tomorrow". I know the WSJ article has been "debunked" but that is exactly what I would expect to have happen to leak when the parties are under NDA. I think it is a done deal, and Avalon will be pushing ahead with 28nm chip manufacturing. $200 million will certainly get them there, leaving pretty much everyone in the dust.

This was almost certainly going to happen sooner or later. ASIC development and sales are so red hot that it was only a matter of time before a mega investor saw an opportunity to position itself as the industry leader.

Friedcat has been very quiet lately himself. If this deal was indeed going through I find it unlikely FC did not hear whispers about it. Is it possible FC is courting a major VC deal as well? If the Avalon thing comes to pass, even the mightly FC might find his back against the wall.

I have no doubt real Wall Street money is looking hard at the opportunities for entry into the ASIC space. It has grown exponentially and shows no signs of slowing. I think the ASIC space will be almost unrecognizable 6 months from now. Things are changing so fast I can barely keep up with my own investments.

I've been considering a similar scenario myself.  While I obviously hope this isn't the route we end up on, in the meantime we're all essentially taking shots in the dark with these IPOs.

Only time will tell, but I'm eagerly awaiting an update from Friedcat.  If large investors have jumped into scene, I doubt he wouldn't have heard about it.

For those interested, this is the announcement he's referring to: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=269950.0

[VolanicEruptor]

not this bullshit again..

[velacreations]

I have been considering an interesting scenario lately, and thought I would post this for comment. I think Avalon is really going to get the $200 million investment. Yifu has been incommunicado for nearly a month, and now he has "just gotten off the plane" and will make a "big announcement tomorrow". I know the WSJ article has been "debunked" but that is exactly what I would expect to have happen to leak when the parties are under NDA. I think it is a done deal, and Avalon will be pushing ahead with 28nm chip manufacturing. $200 million will certainly get them there, leaving pretty much everyone in the dust.

This was almost certainly going to happen sooner or later. ASIC development and sales are so red hot that it was only a matter of time before a mega investor saw an opportunity to position itself as the industry leader.

Friedcat has been very quiet lately himself. If this deal was indeed going through I find it unlikely FC did not hear whispers about it. Is it possible FC is courting a major VC deal as well? If the Avalon thing comes to pass, even the mightly FC might find his back against the wall.

I have no doubt real Wall Street money is looking hard at the opportunities for entry into the ASIC space. It has grown exponentially and shows no signs of slowing. I think the ASIC space will be almost unrecognizable 6 months from now. Things are changing so fast I can barely keep up with my own investments.

anyone that has $200M to invest in ASIC tech would have done enough research to realize that AM is the industry leader and has the best track record, thus makes for the best place to put your money.  And, as I recall, AM is already developing the next gen of chips, so it makes sense to invest in AM over Avalon.

But, I don't think there is $200M of VC money trying to find it's way into the ASIC market.