ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Ninshatamoto]

first mover advantage + trust- unlike every scammy company so far

And couple that first mover advantage with the fact that they are in China which offers some of the cheapest labor around, and has existing infrastructure for chip manufacturing, which gives AM ANOTHER leg up on would-be startups.

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[freedomno1]

Proven is greater than unproven until others step up to the plate the status quo will remain
Transaction fees hehe repeats

[101111]

Vycid it's good for us to hear opinions from all sides, but seriously:

The reality is that most people that own AM shares are very optimistic about the company.

You don't know that. Maybe some are very optimistic. But most? You claim that is the reality. Most are probably cautiously optimistic, but then I'd be just guessing. But so what? It's probably true in as much as shareholders of any company are cautiously optimistic about that company. It's hardly a reason to sell out. It's certainly not proof that the share's are overpriced which is what you are implying, in the context of your post.

So those huge dividends have, to a large degree, been rolled back into the company rather than being invested in other ventures. This artificially inflates share prices.

Generating 'huge' divs is a good thing and whether the share price fully reflects that or not only time will tell. That those divs aren't being reinvested in other ventures is not a bad thing in and of itself, that would depend on the particular venture. It's certainly a pretty long bow to draw to say that since FC hasn't made such investments the share price is artificially inflated, in fact you could easily come to the opposite conclusion.

As the margins on hardware decrease and cause the dividends to shrink

It's not that simple. There's more to divs than hardware sales. There are other revenue streams. Also, you have to factor in volume of hardware sales not simply margin.

(this will happen - in fact, it already has happened to some extent),

I don't know where you're seeing that or over what time frame, but I suspect you're cherry picking some data to validate your position.

that upward pressure on the share price will dissipate, and there will be a price adjustment.

You hope. Hope based on logical analysis? Mmm, don't know if I see that.

And that doesn't even consider any adjustment due to the fact that the company is less profitable in the first place.

Huh? Say what? Less profitable than what?

No offense Vycid, but if you think you are starting to sound a little bit, erm, extreme, in defense of your short position. And a serious question, do you really think the APR should be back in the 40% to 50% range?

[101111]

Bitcoiners are a very idealistic and optimistic bunch, so naturally there's people waiting to buy AM shares at BTC3.8 on the belief that "it's just worth more". But equities markets are often savage in their adjustments, and this is a serious powder keg... I'm going to go on record as saying that AM will not yield 1.6 million bitcoins in profit in the next ten years (P/E ratio of 10). When people realize that, and try to cash in on their shares, there will be bagholders.

Fact: Over 30% APR. No idealism necessary.

Fact: 10 year forecast is pure fantasy.

[freedomno1]

So have we invented the future yet?  

I thought I saw the future when I read an e-mail but it was only a test e-mail of what is to come
Darn Jordan lear was about to party keeps waiting 

[Lauda]

So have we invented the future yet?   

Did that months ago, and made more than a few satoshis along the way. Life is good.

Well cheers to that 

[GodHatesFigs]

Basic math shows how overpriced the shares are: there are ~10million more bitcoins left to be mined over the next century or so. Even if ASICMiner were able to maintain 20% of the total network hashrate throughout that period (breathtakingly unlikely), they'd only mine 2million BTC. Split between the 400,000 shares that creates an upper limit of 5BTC/share.

[candoo]

Basic math shows how overpriced the shares are: there are ~10million more bitcoins left to be mined over the next century or so. Even if ASICMiner were able to maintain 20% of the total network hashrate throughout that period (breathtakingly unlikely), they'd only mine 2million BTC. Split between the 400,000 shares that creates an upper limit of 5BTC/share.

You did forget the hardware sales

[101111]

Basic math shows how overpriced the shares are: there are ~10million more bitcoins left to be mined over the next century or so. Even if ASICMiner were able to maintain 20% of the total network hashrate throughout that period (breathtakingly unlikely), they'd only mine 2million BTC. Split between the 400,000 shares that creates an upper limit of 5BTC/share.

and how much in tx fees over that time?

[DebitMe]

Basic math shows how overpriced the shares are: there are ~10million more bitcoins left to be mined over the next century or so. Even if ASICMiner were able to maintain 20% of the total network hashrate throughout that period (breathtakingly unlikely), they'd only mine 2million BTC. Split between the 400,000 shares that creates an upper limit of 5BTC/share.

sigh, and once again we hit this discussion.  Just continues that once every 3 to 4 pages some ignorant fool pops up who can't/doesn't read and tries to state share price valuation like he has any idea how bitcoin works.  Well once again here is the answer.  The idea behind bitcoin is that transaction fees will increase by then to a point where they alone will be compensation enough for miners to continue mining.  This effectively destroys your "upper limit" as the same coins can be mined multiple times as TX fees.

Please do some homework before posting crap like its fact, its getting pretty sickening.

[zy02264]

Basic math shows how overpriced the shares are: there are ~10million more bitcoins left to be mined over the next century or so. Even if ASICMiner were able to maintain 20% of the total network hashrate throughout that period (breathtakingly unlikely), they'd only mine 2million BTC. Split between the 400,000 shares that creates an upper limit of 5BTC/share.

Not necessary. A significant part of dividends come from selling mining equipment. Because of that, the real profit they are making could be 30% or even more while it has 20% of the total network.

[BR0KK]

Im actually quite happy to have bought AM shares back in the GLBSE days and i'm looking forward to buy more.

I found this: https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=AM1

Is this a legitimate way to purchase AM shares? The text there sounds like AM is in contract with havenlock investments?

[101111]

Im actually quite happy to have bought AM shares back in the GLBSE days and i'm looking forward to buy more.

I found this: https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=AM1

Is this a legitimate way to purchase AM shares? The text there sounds like AM is in contract with havenlock investments?

Yes, legit.

[TsuyokuNaritai]

Is this a legitimate way to purchase AM shares?

It's one of the many ways.
It's a pass-through, but it can give you direct shares if you want it.

There are lots of other pass-throughs too, here's a guide to some of them: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=188550.0

Although it doesn't look it if you're new to AM pass-throughs, right at the minute it's probably better to buy the btc-e ones at the current prices. It's currently a little more expensive that BitFunder, whereas it's normally a lot more expensive than BitFunder.

https://btct.co/security/ASICMINER-PT

This should be a good time to buy. There are big profits coming from sales, and if the APR is suddenly about 50% even for one week, the buzz from that alone should attract some decent money in.

[BitcoinOxygen]

Is this a legitimate way to purchase AM shares?

It's one of the many ways.
It's a pass-through, but it can give you direct shares if you want it.

There are lots of other pass-throughs too, here's a guide to some of them: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=188550.0

Although it doesn't look it if you're new to AM pass-throughs, right at the minute it's probably better to buy the btctc ones at the current prices. It's currently a little more expensive that BitFunder, whereas it's normally a lot more expensive than BitFunder.

https://btct.co/security/ASICMINER-PT

This should be a good time to buy. There are big profits coming from sales, and if the APR is suddenly about 50% even for one week, the buzz from that alone should attract some decent money in.

[tinus42]

Im actually quite happy to have bought AM shares back in the GLBSE days and i'm looking forward to buy more.

I found this: https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=AM1

Is this a legitimate way to purchase AM shares? The text there sounds like AM is in contract with havenlock investments?

Actually if you buy one of these PT shares you have a contract with Thick As Thieves who has a contract with Havelock.

[Kuroth]

I think I might Sell..  Good time bad time too?

[velacreations]

I think I might Sell..  Good time bad time too?

I would wait and get the dividends for the next few weeks, as they should be significantly higher (.03-.04) that now, which will certainly push share prices up.

[ThickAsThieves]

Im actually quite happy to have bought AM shares back in the GLBSE days and i'm looking forward to buy more.

I found this: https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=AM1

Is this a legitimate way to purchase AM shares? The text there sounds like AM is in contract with havenlock investments?

Actually if you buy one of these PT shares you have a contract with Thick As Thieves who has a contract with Havelock.

There's no contract with Havelock. When you buy a TATI PT share, we hold "real" shares for each represented share.

[TheJuice]

Basic math shows how overpriced the shares are: there are ~10million more bitcoins left to be mined over the next century or so. Even if ASICMiner were able to maintain 20% of the total network hashrate throughout that period (breathtakingly unlikely), they'd only mine 2million BTC. Split between the 400,000 shares that creates an upper limit of 5BTC/share.

You did forget the hardware sales

You forgot 2 things:

1) If a company is selling shovels to those looking for gold. Can the company make more than all the gold that exists in the world? Obviously YES. AsicMiner is selling shovels. I saw someone try and estimate the amount of hashing by asicminer hardware (sales + it's own) - i think it was more like 30% of total network speed.
2) Transaction fees. When bitcoin takes off we should see transaction fees drastically increase, thus the about 'mined' is infinite.