ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[minerpumpkin]

friedcat did tell me on the 14th that tapeout was still on track for the 20th, so I'm pretty confident in a tapeout at least this week.

Where did he tell you that?

Just like there are exchanges necessary to move shares around, some questions are likely to find their way in said exchanges - I would bet that "are we still on track for a Jan 20 tapeout?" is one such question.

Possibly. When I read 'friedcat did tell me...' I just thought 'haha, troll elsewhere' But then I realised this wasn't a newly registered kid.

So... really?  *hopesUp*

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[Dargumin]

Everyone too busy dumping shares to post here? Share price is tanking hard

[empoweoqwj]

Everyone too busy dumping shares to post here? Share price is tanking hard

Not exactly a shock. If people were buying on the "20th January" tapeout date and apart from a "rumour" posted last night, absolutely no news from FC about it, the share price was always going to head south again. Dividends almost evaporating this week didn't help.

A post from FC is getting rarer than a Man U win these days

[tomywomy]

How much hashing power would Asicminer have to have to justify this share price?  There are 400,000 shares, so at 0.5 BTC per share we are looking at a value of 200,000 BTC.  If Asicminer discovered 8 blocks a day they'd make 200 btc a day in revenue.  That's 3.3% of the network.  Even if 50% of that was profit for distribution, that would mean 100 btc a day.  It would still take 2,000 days, or 5.5 years at that rate to generate 200,000 BTC of profit and get the shareholders buying in at this price to break-even.  

With only 4 blocks a week being found at the current hashing power, we are talking about increasing hashing power by 14 times to go from 4 to 56 blocks a week, or 8 blocks a day.  Does Friedcat have access to 14 times the data space he is currently using, 14 times the electricity, 14 times the chips?

What would it genuinely cost to maintain 3.3% of the entire hashing power?  Right now the network hash rate is about 20 PetaHash. 1% is 200 TeraHash and 3.3% is 660 TeraHash.  

This isn't just about deploying some faster technology.  The network hash rate has grown 500 times (50,000%) since May, when Asicminer ruled the mining world.  Do you really believe Asicminer can produce 50 times the hardware they had been (to end up at 3.3%) and keep that growing at the network growth rate, which has been 100% per month for many months?

I'm wondering if someone who is a believer here can quantify what they think Asicminer will be producing that will justify the value currently being assigned to these share.

[jimmothy]

How much hashing power would Asicminer have to have to justify this share price?  There are 400,000 shares, so at 0.5 BTC per share we are looking at a value of 200,000 BTC.  If Asicminer discovered 8 blocks a day they'd make 200 btc a day in revenue.  That's 3.3% of the network.  Even if 50% of that was profit for distribution, that would mean 100 btc a day.  It would still take 2,000 days, or 5.5 years at that rate to generate 200,000 BTC of profit and get the shareholders buying in at this price to break-even.  

With only 4 blocks a week being found at the current hashing power, we are talking about increasing hashing power by 14 times to go from 4 to 56 blocks a week, or 8 blocks a day.  Does Friedcat have access to 14 times the data space he is currently using, 14 times the electricity, 14 times the chips?

What would it genuinely cost to maintain 3.3% of the entire hashing power?  Right now the network hash rate is about 20 PetaHash. 1% is 200 TeraHash and 3.3% is 660 TeraHash.  

This isn't just about deploying some faster technology.  The network hash rate has grown 500 times (50,000%) since May, when Asicminer ruled the mining world.  Do you really believe Asicminer can produce 50 times the hardware they had been (to end up at 3.3%) and keep that growing at the network growth rate, which has been 100% per month for many months?

I'm wondering if someone who is a believer here can quantify what they think Asicminer will be producing that will justify the value currently being assigned to these share.

AM will deploy 2-20ph during what I predict to be a 40-400ph network hashrate.

So that would give AM from 0.5% - 50% of network hashrate.

[empoweoqwj]

How much hashing power would Asicminer have to have to justify this share price?  There are 400,000 shares, so at 0.5 BTC per share we are looking at a value of 200,000 BTC.  If Asicminer discovered 8 blocks a day they'd make 200 btc a day in revenue.  That's 3.3% of the network.  Even if 50% of that was profit for distribution, that would mean 100 btc a day.  It would still take 2,000 days, or 5.5 years at that rate to generate 200,000 BTC of profit and get the shareholders buying in at this price to break-even.  

With only 4 blocks a week being found at the current hashing power, we are talking about increasing hashing power by 14 times to go from 4 to 56 blocks a week, or 8 blocks a day.  Does Friedcat have access to 14 times the data space he is currently using, 14 times the electricity, 14 times the chips?

What would it genuinely cost to maintain 3.3% of the entire hashing power?  Right now the network hash rate is about 20 PetaHash. 1% is 200 TeraHash and 3.3% is 660 TeraHash.  

This isn't just about deploying some faster technology.  The network hash rate has grown 500 times (50,000%) since May, when Asicminer ruled the mining world.  Do you really believe Asicminer can produce 50 times the hardware they had been (to end up at 3.3%) and keep that growing at the network growth rate, which has been 100% per month for many months?

I'm wondering if someone who is a believer here can quantify what they think Asicminer will be producing that will justify the value currently being assigned to these share.

Read all about ASICMINER's "vision of the future" from their post on 10th December. The only question is whether it happens or not ...

[ninjarobot]

Oh, how the mighty have fallen! How did we get here and will we ever see those glory days again?

I'm still holding AM, mainly because I am too lazy to sell. But if Gen 3 fails, I fear all is lost.

FC mentioned that he does not like to work for others, what is preventing him from neglecting AM and letting it die a slow death while rebooting privately? His identity is still unknown so he can do whatever he pleases. Keeping my shares on faith alone is tough.

[Entropy-uc]

Oh, how the mighty have fallen! How did we get here and will we ever see those glory days again?

I'm still holding AM, mainly because I am too lazy to sell. But if Gen 3 fails, I fear all is lost.

FC mentioned that he does not like to work for others, what is preventing him from neglecting AM and letting it die a slow death while rebooting privately? His identity is still unknown so he can do whatever he pleases. Keeping my shares on faith alone is tough.

A study of Discus Fish would lead most to think that your scenario is already underway.

[empoweoqwj]

I think "if Gen 3 fails, I fear all is lost" is a completely fair statement. But if it succeeds, a lot is won at current share prices. That's why I've not sold out.

But the lack of communication from FC is getting very disturbing now. This must be  the longest ever gap between his posts since IPO. If he doesn't announce something real soon, I'll be leaving the ship, whether its sinking or not. Can't make investment decisions in a vacuum.

[BitHub]

there is a reason why FC isn't saying anything because gen 3 wont happen in time. Get out now while you can. Even if they put out gen 3 its already too late. FC doesn't care about asicminer anymore for months they been working on something else that doesn't require investors. I feel sorrry for those still holding on but the risk is sooo huge dont let 10btc turn into 1btc please. I'm trying to sell off my last 100 shares very slowly at a lost but good to get something back.

[jimmothy]

there is a reason why FC isn't saying anything because gen 3 wont happen in time. Get out now while you can. Even if they put out gen 3 its already too late. FC doesn't care about asicminer anymore for months they been working on something else that doesn't require investors. I feel sorrry for those still holding on but the risk is sooo huge dont let 10btc turn into 1btc please. I'm trying to sell off my last 100 shares very slowly at a lost but good to get something back.

You might want to make a new account. Nobody here takes you seriously even for a fudster.

[jimmothy]

I think "if Gen 3 fails, I fear all is lost" is a completely fair statement. But if it succeeds, a lot is won at current share prices. That's why I've not sold out.

But the lack of communication from FC is getting very disturbing now. This must be  the longest ever gap between his posts since IPO. If he doesn't announce something real soon, I'll be leaving the ship, whether its sinking or not. Can't make investment decisions in a vacuum.

Does FC need to hold your hand too when making investments? Updates come monthly and its been like 1 month and a few days since last update. But your right AM is totally doomed and we should all jump ship right before next gen.

[BitThink]

I think "if Gen 3 fails, I fear all is lost" is a completely fair statement. But if it succeeds, a lot is won at current share prices. That's why I've not sold out.

But the lack of communication from FC is getting very disturbing now. This must be  the longest ever gap between his posts since IPO. If he doesn't announce something real soon, I'll be leaving the ship, whether its sinking or not. Can't make investment decisions in a vacuum.

Does FC need to hold your hand too when making investments? Updates come monthly and its been like 1 month and a few days since last update. But your right AM is totally doomed and we should all jump ship right before next gen.

To be fair, improving PR was promised in last update and we've seen how it has been improved.

[Endlessa]

Oh, how the mighty have fallen! How did we get here and will we ever see those glory days again?

I'm still holding AM, mainly because I am too lazy to sell. But if Gen 3 fails, I fear all is lost.

FC mentioned that he does not like to work for others, what is preventing him from neglecting AM and letting it die a slow death while rebooting privately? His identity is still unknown so he can do whatever he pleases. Keeping my shares on faith alone is tough.

A study of Discus Fish would lead most to think that your scenario is already underway.

This ^^

[minerpumpkin]

Oh, how the mighty have fallen! How did we get here and will we ever see those glory days again?

I'm still holding AM, mainly because I am too lazy to sell. But if Gen 3 fails, I fear all is lost.

FC mentioned that he does not like to work for others, what is preventing him from neglecting AM and letting it die a slow death while rebooting privately? His identity is still unknown so he can do whatever he pleases. Keeping my shares on faith alone is tough.

A study of Discus Fish would lead most to think that your scenario is already underway.

This ^^

Discus Fish has been around for over half a year now...

[bitcoin.newsfeed]

Discus Fish has been around for over half a year now...

exactly ... and AM is in the **** for the same period of time ... but yeah ... FUD

We really need update, whats going on ... Jutarul, are the board meetings still active? Is ASICminer "right on schedule" as you mentioned 20days ago (what about tape-out)? And what happened with promised PR improvement?

[Jutarul]

Discus Fish has been around for over half a year now...

exactly ... and AM is in the **** for the same period of time ... but yeah ... FUD

We really need update, whats going on ... Jutarul, are the board meetings still active? Is ASICminer "right on schedule" as you mentioned 20days ago (what about tape-out)? And what happened with promised PR improvement?

You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink. Improvements have been continually suggested by the board. There seems to be something internal preventing any improvements to PR or related aspects. So far the board has been very lenient with that. The way things are progressing there will likely have to be an investor forced audit at some point in time ...

There has been a request for a board meeting a few days ago - I expect friedcat to be busy right now and be available for a meeting before 30-Jan-14 (but don't hold me liable for that date).

[vortex1878]

Well... Why would the board be bothered if there is sb. updating the ordinary shareholders more frequently? PR-person would be helpful for sales only... But friedcat had promised an improvement numerous times. Nothing ever happens.

My main concern is that the BITMAIN issue has to be clarified. Their products look exactly like ASICMINER's, and the specs are perfectly Gen2.

I am not trying to spread any FUD here but I really want to see some friedcat statement regarding this. And not the ignorant style we had to see recently. I just looked up all posts of him. The frequency and responsiveness to shareholders used to be sth. else...

[minerpumpkin]

Discus Fish has been around for over half a year now...

exactly ... and AM is in the **** for the same period of time ... but yeah ... FUD

We really need update, whats going on ... Jutarul, are the board meetings still active? Is ASICminer "right on schedule" as you mentioned 20days ago (what about tape-out)? And what happened with promised PR improvement?

You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink. Improvements have been continually suggested by the board. There seems to be something internal preventing any improvements to PR or related aspects. So far the board has been very lenient with that. The way things are progressing there will likely have to be an investor forced audit at some point in time ...

There has been a request for a board meeting a few days ago - I expect friedcat to be busy right now and be available for a meeting before 30-Jan-14 (but don't hold me liable for that date).

OK, so I guess FC is tied up right now due to the tapeout? I really hope the progress/outcome of the tapeout will be addressed then and also communicated to this forum. I actually understand very well why one wouldn't want to publish every minor step and aspect of a plan, this is prudent and actually fundamentally important. But there should definitely be a progress update when this board meeting took place.
Oh and is the rumor (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg4705731#msg4705731) true or at least reliable that FC stated on Jan 14, the tapeout was -in fact- on track back then and still scheduled for the 20th?
Maybe you can forward our concerns (I guess FC/board is aware of them?)? And insights from your side are also always welcome and trusted. Thanks!

[chriswilmer]

Well... Why would the board be bothered if there is sb. updating the ordinary shareholders more frequently? PR-person would be helpful for sales only... But friedcat had promised an improvement numerous times. Nothing ever happens.

My main concern is that the BITMAIN issue has to be clarified. Their products look exactly like ASICMINER's, and the specs are perfectly Gen2.

I am not trying to spread any FUD here but I really want to see some friedcat statement regarding this. And not the ignorant style we had to see recently. I just looked up all posts of him. The frequency and responsiveness to shareholders used to be sth. else...

Maybe there is a common node in the supply chain between Bitmain and AM (ie. They both used the same usb drive manufacturer but with different supplied chips)