ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[discobean]

Doesn't sound too good! No divs, and rockxie raising all that BTC.

Will they be running? - I for one hope not.

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[necro_nemesis]

This is the second time in a row.
Once is an anomaly, twice is a coincidence, thrice is a pattern.

I don't like when patterns start shifting, it is worrisome.

Dividends have been acting strangely over the last few weeks without more context it is hard to tell if they are just getting a tad lazy or something else is happening though.

Perhaps they are considering making it bi-weekly since the amounts are getting smaller or they just prefer Thursdays because they are busy with chips on Wednesdays time-table scheduling etc.

Well, if AM is receiving engineering samples tomorrow, then it's no great leap to imagine that they may be kind of busy right now...

Yeah FC runs around and does everything.  It's called "staff".

[minerpumpkin]

This is the second time in a row.
Once is an anomaly, twice is a coincidence, thrice is a pattern.

I don't like when patterns start shifting, it is worrisome.

Dividends have been acting strangely over the last few weeks without more context it is hard to tell if they are just getting a tad lazy or something else is happening though.

Perhaps they are considering making it bi-weekly since the amounts are getting smaller or they just prefer Thursdays because they are busy with chips on Wednesdays time-table scheduling etc.

Well, if AM is receiving engineering samples tomorrow, then it's no great leap to imagine that they may be kind of busy right now...

I wonder whether they meant that they'll be receiving them tomorrow or rather that the samples will be finished by TSMC and have yet to arrive at AM. So we may better be holding our breaths till tuesday/wednesday next week.

[jdany]

My best guess is there were a lot of transfers this week because of rockminer.
The delay is probably more of FC being accommodating rather than lazy.

If I were paying a dividend, I would prefer transfers were settled for the week before I paid out - as to not generate 500 "where's my dividend" messages.

Two direct share auctions that ended right before Wednesday...

[antirack]

I hope this doesn't need to be updated:

White Paper: Analysis of Large-Scale Bitcoin Mining Operations
http://www.immersion-cooling.com/publications/Analysis_of_Large-Scale_Bitcoin_Mining_Operations.pdf

Example #2: ASICMiner Gen3 - Most Efficient Next-Gen Cluster
The Generation-3 ASICMiner chip (manufactured and sold by ASICMiner/Bitfountain) is presently considered the most efficient and least expensive mining device to be released in 2014. The hardware will be available from ASICMiners partners and distributors worldwide, adding a total hashrate of 400PH/s to 1600PH/s to the network within this year .
The final price is currently unknown, but the chips themselves are sold for $500 to $1000 per TH/s. Initial tests suggest a power consumption of 500W with a performance of 1TH/s and room for improvement.  
A very conservative assumption would be a 50% increase in manufacturing cost for the finished board including power-train and power supplies, resulting in a final blade-style unit with 4TH/s and 2000W power consumption at a manufacturing price of $1500.

Assuming total network hashrate of an arbitrary 175 PH/s (5X current network) at the time of deployment, this would mean the equivalent of around 43,750 AM-Gen3-2000W units. By extension, one would have to commission 4,375 units worth $6.6 million to own 10% of the network, or 436 units worth $654,000 to own 1%.
Assuming the space usage equivalent of a 4U enclosure for sufficient air flow, a 1.2MW cluster with 600 units, at 10 units per rack, this would imply a physical foot print of 1,200 / 2 / 10 = 60 high density 20kW racks @ about 60 x (8x2) ft2 = 960 ft2 of data center space to own 1.37% of the network (at a hardware cost of $900,000).
All this would provide the miner about $30.400 per day in gross revenue in an arbitrary 175PH/s future network hashrate (~$643 USD/BTC).

Example 2.4PH 1.2MW Mining Container (ASICMiner Gen3):
●   6 tanks per container, 200kW-240kW each
●   400 boards each tank, 500W per board, 2,400 boards total
●   Equivalent to 600 4U boxes
●   Shipping container footprint instead of 60 racks in high density facility
●   2-3PH/s at estimated hashrate (based on reports from China )
●   No thermal throttling, possible performance increase to be tested with actual hardware
●   Fixed and predictable cost, no matter if fully or only partially populated

[Zubilica]

estimated divs ? anyone can guess ?

[cs54]

goose egg

[KS]

0.00000000504 give or take, unless we suddenly see a ton of BTC from Rockxie and unless I pulled the wrong AM address from cache (but it looks like the right one).

[SmiGueL]

Based on the wallet: ~0.00006650 BTC/share.

[aahzmundus]

0.00000000504 give or take, unless we suddenly see a ton of BTC from Rockxie and unless I pulled the wrong AM address from cache (but it looks like the right one).

0.00000000504?  I think your estimate is a bit off, considering the protocol would not allow for a div that small.  Not only that, but it would be an unprecedentedly small div.

I wonder if the current issues with the PBOC have anything to do with the delay...

[neilol]

0.00000000504 give or take, unless we suddenly see a ton of BTC from Rockxie and unless I pulled the wrong AM address from cache (but it looks like the right one).

0.00000000504?  I think your estimate is a bit off, considering the protocol would not allow for a div that small.  Not only that, but it would be an unprecedentedly small div.

I wonder if the current issues with the PBOC have anything to do with the delay...

Don't think he is off - there is just no revenue from mining or sales that have hit the wallet - which is to be expected. I assume he would skip the div this week if that is the case

[jimmothy]

0.00000000504 give or take, unless we suddenly see a ton of BTC from Rockxie and unless I pulled the wrong AM address from cache (but it looks like the right one).

0.00000000504?  I think your estimate is a bit off, considering the protocol would not allow for a div that small.  Not only that, but it would be an unprecedentedly small div.

I wonder if the current issues with the PBOC have anything to do with the delay...

Did the last 5 times china "banned" bitcoin have any effect?

My guess is that FC is busy with gen3.

[aahzmundus]

Don't think he is off - there is just no revenue from mining or sales that have hit the wallet - which is to be expected. I assume he would skip the div this week if that is the case

Even if we only earned 1 bitcoin for the whole week... the div would be 0.00000250

For his estimate to be accurate, we would have had to only earn 0.002016

I do think his numbers are off... because math.

[chriswilmer]

If I was FC, I would just not send out divs this week because they are not worth sending. Not a big deal.

[KS]

I see 0.02017484BTC in the 115tTroRo3B9ZDQ6ATJGDCHcNEVbjJoZnF address.

Divide by 400.000 (or 399.99sth, if you remember the exact number).

But it could be the wrong address, which was my previous caveat. Maybe SmiGueL can chime in on this?

edit: this is the correct divs address.

[jimmothy]

I see 0.02017484BTC in the 115tTroRo3B9ZDQ6ATJGDCHcNEVbjJoZnF address.

Divide by 400.000 (or 399.99sth, if you remember the exact number).

But it could be the wrong address, which was my previous caveat. Maybe SmiGueL can chime in on this?

You are looking at dividend address and not mining address.

Mining address:


https://blockchain.info/address/1HtUGfbDcMzTeHWx2Dbgnhc6kYnj1Hp24i

[KS]

I see 0.02017484BTC in the 115tTroRo3B9ZDQ6ATJGDCHcNEVbjJoZnF address.

Divide by 400.000 (or 399.99sth, if you remember the exact number).

But it could be the wrong address, which was my previous caveat. Maybe SmiGueL can chime in on this?

You are looking at dividend address and not mining address.

Mining address:


https://blockchain.info/address/1HtUGfbDcMzTeHWx2Dbgnhc6kYnj1Hp24i

Which is kind of the point. What's in the divs address becomes divs.

But yes, in case the mining address tops up the divs address, the divs would be (26.60020083 + 0.02017484)/400000= 0.00006655+

But that's also forgetting a number of other AM addresses that could send BTC to the divs address...

[aahzmundus]

But yes, in case the mining address tops up the divs address

What do you mean in case...  Go look at the blockchain, the reason people are able to predict the divs so well is because friedcat follows a system typically.  The main reason I am giving you crap is you posted a div estimate that is impossible.  There is no unit under a satoshi, and not only that but you were listing a div that was 10,000x off of any reasonable estimate.

[Zubilica]

so no divs this week ? that is a first

[KS]

But yes, in case the mining address tops up the divs address

What do you mean in case...  Go look at the blockchain, the reason people are able to predict the divs so well is because friedcat follows a system typically.  The main reason I am giving you crap is you posted a div estimate that is impossible.  There is no unit under a satoshi, and not only that but you were listing a div that was 10,000x off of any reasonable estimate.

Who said anything?

I showed you the process, you're absolutely free to adhere to it or not. The math is fine thank you. You disagree on my not including the mining revenue, that's fine by me. As I said, you include the mining revenue, you need to include the rest (if any), and that's even more guess-work.