Bitcoin value will most probably fail in the near future. My question is WHY?

[molecular]

If silkroad was to go down people would just migrate to a silkroad equivalent. Their out there just now as well known and word will quickly get around.

Agree.

With estimates at $200k worth of fees per month for them you'd expect some people to be waiting in the wings. It isn't like SR is a fluke, it's what happens when people have bitcoin.

It's true there would be a replacement (probably multiple ones). But just with the gox hack last year, the media outcry will hit hard. Also: traders knowing this will sell and this will accellerate the downtrend. While fundamentally, the price should not move much (I'm guesstimating the silkroad only requires about 30 kBTC of money to go around to support the transactions), one should never forget the psychology of market participants.

I got this one wrong after the bubble, insisting (in my mind) that bitcoin will survive this and people were stupid for selling now, all the while holding on to my stash instead of selling at -say- $10 to $15 and rebuying in November for $2.50.

[1714005942]

1714005942

[memvola]

It's true there would be a replacement (probably multiple ones). But just with the gox hack last year, the media outcry will hit hard. Also: traders knowing this will sell and this will accellerate the downtrend. While fundamentally, the price should not move much (I'm guesstimating the silkroad only requires about 30 kBTC of money to go around to support the transactions), one should never forget the psychology of market participants.

I think this will depend on what really happens to SR. There is at least one alternative I know of, and it already seems to be doing good. If SR doesn't disappear soon, its disappearance won't have much impact, since there will be more than a couple of sites almost as big as SR pretty soon. Unless they find a consistent way to crack down any such operation.

I got this one wrong after the bubble, insisting (in my mind) that bitcoin will survive this and people were stupid for selling now, all the while holding on to my stash instead of selling at -say- $10 to $15 and rebuying in November for $2.50.

Same here, I began rebuying close to $2. Patience usually pays, but you should accept the fact that you may never get your hands on any coin. So to friends, I usually recommend buying small amounts from the market price for Bitcoin based expenditures, replacing them every time they spend, and then buying in bulk on the way down.

[finkleshnorts]

I agree. Right now, I'm not buying any more coins because I fear a crash. I'm also not selling any coins, because I fear a spike. If the price sits around 11 for a long time, I'll start buying again very slowly. But I've got enough bitcoins to be happy for now.

[jago25_98]

I agree. Right now, I'm not buying any more coins because I fear a crash. I'm also not selling any coins, because I fear a spike. If the price sits around 11 for a long time, I'll start buying again very slowly. But I've got enough bitcoins to be happy for now.

This is what I recommend. Ride out the spikes and crashes, just ignore and carry on. It should be possible to do if you're in Bitcoin for the more solid reasons such as those in my signature

[finkleshnorts]

I can't see signatures, I turned them off because of abusers like Matthew N. Wright, but I'm assuming yours has something to do with shaming speculators because speculation undercuts the noble ideals of bitcoin.

I'm in bitcoin for two reasons.

1. It's awesome, can change the world, great medium of exchange, liberty, yada yada. That's what brought me here, and that's why I love bitcoin.

2. Since I believe in it, I think others will too. So I think the price will rise long term. While I'm accumulating as many bitcoins as I can (yes, hoarding, which I'm guessing you despise if my assumptions about your signature are correct), I'd still like to do it in the most cost effective manner. We will have lots of ups and downs. You can't blame speculators, blame bitcoin for being so speculative in nature. TL;DR on 2. I'm trying to turn a profit. Most people here would tell you that that is a noble pursuit.

If I need to purchase goods and services, I try to do so with bitcoin. But right now I'm pretty much just buying food and paying rent and school, etc. So I'm saving. I'm putting my money where my mouth is because I believe in bitcoin. But I'm not going to ignore the price and try to paddle upstream on the market, nor should anybody. Speculate to your hearts content while bitcoin is still unstable!

[molecular]

Speculate to your hearts content while bitcoin is still unstable!

It will never be stable if we compare it to the USD or other fiat. It might stabilize around 1 bar of gold at some point in the future, though

[finkleshnorts]

Speculate to your hearts content while bitcoin is still unstable!

It will never be stable if we compare it to the USD or other fiat. It might stabilize around 1 bar of gold at some point in the future, though

Agreed. I worded that poorly. Bitcoin will always have some degree of fluctuation to fiat, just as gold does.

[FreeMoney]

Speculate to your hearts content while bitcoin is still unstable!

It will never be stable if we compare it to the USD or other fiat. It might stabilize around 1 bar of gold at some point in the future, though

Well, it will be exactly as stable in dollar terms as the dollar is in bitcoin terms. :-)

[johnyj]

Gold can be mined more quickly, BTC can not

You can only tell a bubble AFTER it bursted

[pyromaniac]

High spikes and fall is not very typical for currency market but bitcoin market volume is still very small, so any big player (e.g. mtGox) can change the price. Best market strategy today is don't buy for all money and don't sell everything you have. But I feel a big spike/bubble in the nearest future: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=98419.0

[BrannigansLaw]

There is another threat to the bitcoin price. Legalising drugs. It's been a topic which has been growing in popularity a lot recently since the war on drugs is an utter failure. It's a big topic though and would need it own thread on how it would affect SR and bitcoin.

[memvola]

There is another threat to the bitcoin price. Legalising drugs. It's been a topic which has been growing in popularity a lot recently since the war on drugs is an utter failure. It's a big topic though and would need it own thread on how it would affect SR and bitcoin.

Even if there was a political movement to rapidly legalize drugs, they won't be completely free and not everywhere simultaneously. For instance, if they removed the punishment to carry a minimal amount of a drug but kept its sales as illegal (which is the most likely first step), it would make the SR businesses massively rich. Same would happen if it was made legal in only some part of the first world for instance. If they made every drug free everywhere in every way, we'd be trippin' instead of worrying about SR anyway.

[cheat_2_win]

It did drop 40% after ($1.10 to $0.60 ish) but I'm still waiting to buy back the bitcoins I had sold at $0.50.

When I was looking at the depth book, I saw bunch of such bids and thought, 'gee, those people must have sold a little higher and wanted to buy back at the dip that never came.'  

[bitcon]

I agree. Right now, I'm not buying any more coins because I fear a crash. I'm also not selling any coins, because I fear a spike. If the price sits around 11 for a long time, I'll start buying again very slowly. But I've got enough bitcoins to be happy for now.

This is what I recommend. Ride out the spikes and crashes, just ignore and carry on. It should be possible to do if you're in Bitcoin for the more solid reasons such as those in my signature

you left out environmentally friendly!

[Oinsane1]

i dont think bitcoin will be in a bubble til mom and pop are in on it

[Charlie Prime]

invest your 10.000 US dollar into pirate or bitcoinmax and get ~6 % per week!

This is a good return on investement.

Candoo, what is the URL ?

[Le Happy Merchant]

invest your 10.000 US dollar into pirate or bitcoinmax and get ~6 % per week!

This is a good return on investement.

Candoo, what is the URL ?

Good one!