Diff thread Apr 28 to May 12? picks are closed!!.... prize = 0.30 btc

[philipma1957]

last game no winner  so a roll over to 0.30 btc

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1436869.msg14692790#msg14692790



 Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate



Apr 28 2016   178,659,257,773   -0.01%   1,278,892,782 GH/s

Okay rules  

1)you must have been on this site since March 1st 2016  you must have at least 30 posts.
2)I will check you out if you are new and decide if you can play.
3)you get one play. edit to be clear.

 3)you get one play per adjustment. which must be yours alone, in proper format and can not be changed



here is last game

note format:


-1.2% = philipma1957  and if it wins I will roll it over.

+1.1 = mavericklm
+1.2 = NeuroticFish

+1.6 = jmumich
+2.0 = HerbPean
+2.5 = Veves1
+2.7 = edonkey
+3.0 = adaseb
+3.7 = Cuidler

+3.9 = VRobb
+4.0 = RichBC
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.3 = Notlist3d
+4.4 = ATguy
+4.5 = Ankara

+4.7 = zebedee
+4.8 = blindminer
+4.9 = Erumara
+5.0 = pusttiu
+5.1 = alh
+5.2 = wpt1wpt1
+5.3 = Fruitsbasket
+5.4 = DanDan
+5.5 = FUBAR-BDHR      
+5.6 = ingiltere  
+5.7 = vapourminer
+5.8 = Mikestang
+5.9  =  indiemax
+6.0 = ezeminer
+6.2 = tlhIlwI
+6.5 = talks_cheep
+6.7 = lolxxx ----- I checked my pm's and he sent one at 1:30 am asking for this number
+6.9 = alfacro
+7.0 = lolxxx   you picked 6.9 it was taken I gave you 7.0not a valid pick see two above


+7.1 = Amph
+7.7 = tertius993
+9.8  = Psi


4)Do not pick someone else's number If you do I will assign a number and that will not be changed
5) picks start at:

Bitcoin Difficulty:   178,659,257,773
Estimated Next Difficulty:   177,917,669,582 (-0.42%)
Adjust time:   After 1995 Blocks, About 14.3 days       1416  starting point
Hashrate(?):   1,225,601,712 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 30.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   7:50 (3.0 minutes ago)

6) picks end at

Bitcoin Difficulty:   178,659,257,773
Estimated Next Difficulty:   177,917,669,582 (-0.42%)
Adjust time:   After 1995 Blocks, About 14.3 days      816
Hashrate(?):   1,225,601,712 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 30.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   7:50 (4.3 minutes ago)

7)  since this is a free contest I make all decisions if there are any issues or problems.

[1714099944]

1714099944

[HerbPean]

So the hashrate is still off as I speak. I don't know what to think anymore

I was ready for "back to the sky" movement.

[HerbPean]

So the hashrate is still off as I speak. I don't know what to think anymore

I was ready for "back to the sky" movement.

remember the bitcoinwisdom info reflects part of the last jump!




but even this one which is closer to real time is a - for now.


http://bitcoincharts.com/



Blocks   409294
Total BTC   15.482M
 
Difficulty   178659257773
Estimated   177958754955 in 1970 blks   << small drop
 
Network total   1159042.014 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.44 / 662 s        <<<<<<<  and under the pace of 6.0
    

Price is 446 usd at coinbase

I based my opinion on the hashrate of the network, never on the estimate of bitcoinwisdom.

I was guessing a full hashrate recovery as soon as the Diff was done but it's not the case. We are still at 1,199,768,466 GH/s as I type.

[notlist3d]

So the hashrate is still off as I speak. I don't know what to think anymore

I was ready for "back to the sky" movement.

remember the bitcoinwisdom info reflects part of the last jump!




but even this one which is closer to real time is a - for now.


http://bitcoincharts.com/



Blocks   409294
Total BTC   15.482M
 
Difficulty   178659257773
Estimated   177958754955 in 1970 blks   << small drop
 
Network total   1159042.014 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.44 / 662 s        <<<<<<<  and under the pace of 6.0
    

Price is 446 usd at coinbase

I based my opinion on the hashrate of the network, never on the estimate of bitcoinwisdom.

I was guessing a full hashrate recovery as soon as the Diff was done but it's not the case. We are still at 1,199,768,466 GH/s as I type.

I think once in the period a little ways bitwisdom is fun to watch, although it can be off compared to real number.  It's speculation... which can be not so great.  To recap last week we got a pretty good change for miners - Apr 28 2016    178,659,257,773    -0.01%    1,278,892,782 GH/s

Coin value raised a decent amoung and fell to a little under 450... which is still good.  I hope to see this change and some more good things to continue.  Either way will be fun to watch with another roll-over as I do enjoy them as it seems to bring more people out.

[Kexkey]

So the hashrate is still off as I speak. I don't know what to think anymore

I was ready for "back to the sky" movement.

I think the big players are waiting for the halving to turn their new-generation hashers on.  If they'd do it right now, they would have an effect on the difficulty and they don't want that right now (well they did a few weeks ago when we saw 20% increase).  They are ready for the halving.  And when it comes...

...all the small hashers will turn off their gear.

But the big ones will turn on their new machines.  Difficulty would double, but since the small ones turn the switch off, the difficulty should be ok for them.  And they won't lose that much in the halving.  They are ready.

Meanwhile, they control the difficulty (by turning on and off machines; it's a game: "Hey let's try to get the diff to EXACTLY 0.00% this time!"), of course by colluding between the big ones in China.

[ezeminer]

So the hashrate is still off as I speak. I don't know what to think anymore

I was ready for "back to the sky" movement.

I think the big players are waiting for the halving to turn their new-generation hashers on.  If they'd do it right now, they would have an effect on the difficulty and they don't want that right now (well they did a few weeks ago when we saw 20% increase).  They are ready for the halving.  And when it comes...

...all the small hashers will turn off their gear.

But the big ones will turn on their new machines.  Difficulty would double, but since the small ones turn the switch off, the difficulty should be ok for them.  And they won't lose that much in the halving.  They are ready.

Meanwhile, they control the difficulty (by turning on and off machines; it's a game: "Hey let's try to get the diff to EXACTLY 0.00% this time!"), of course by colluding between the big ones in China.

Also depends on Bitcoin price. It'll be interesting to see how it changes over the next 2-3 months. Whether or not people jump on the bit train.

[ahmedjamal1998]

Okay I go for

+1.4

[HerbPean]

Yeah someone restarted the engine !

[Mikestang]

Yep, adjustment is done and they've fired up the farm(s) again, look at that hash spike back up!

I still think we'll be over 200G by the time the halving comes, but I would love to be wrong.

[notlist3d]

Yep, adjustment is done and they've fired up the farm(s) again, look at that hash spike back up!

I still think we'll be over 200G by the time the halving comes, but I would love to be wrong.

can not say you are wrong.  I am hoping for  six to seven days up to 5%   then slowing back down to the 0-1% range.

I would love to see this for two more jumps.  I am in the middle of firing up a third and final eth miner and i will mine eth for the next 2 months in house as the power requirements are low.

Eth has the nice thing of currrently requiring GPU's.   It still scares me a little on if someone makes a asic chip and keeps it to themself, kinda like x11 was handled.

Good news is we broke 450 again, so no big sell walls at this point with going up and down there. Coinbase has us at around 457 so were off to a nice start on value this period.

[RichBC]

First full Day of the new period and we had +9.2% with 158 Blocks. 7 Hours in Today we are sitting at a period Run rate of +1.83% so I would say well within normal variance for no change to the overall network Hash since the adjustment.


Rich

[lolxxxx]

Reserved .

[Mikestang]

Reserved .

Reserved for what?  So you can speculate later after it has already happened?  lol, I don't understand.

[notlist3d]

Reserved .

Reserved for what?  So you can speculate later after it has already happened?  lol, I don't understand.

Lol I don't get it either that is genius though. Reserve a first pick then after go I speculated price and difficulty perfect!  Would be funny but edit would be obvious.  I have a feeling it's someone trying to save spot on guessing... which will not happen.   And I could be wrong I'm just guessing.

Coinbase is down like 2 dollars around 455, so hard to be to mad but not getting that fast upward motion we were for a bit.

[philipma1957]

Okay prize is bigger so I have had some pm's trying to get a number.

No NO NO!

I can not allow anyone to do this.  Gives an edge to them.

also I will be watching for more maneuvers.  No sure what the reserve is for but since it is early and before pick time.

It will not be able to list a pick that counts.

[lolxxxx]

Reserved .

Reserved for what?  So you can speculate later after it has already happened?  lol, I don't understand.

Hehe sorry for bothering you guys i just posted reserved to get notified about this topic i don't know why when i click on notify button it don't work for me so i just posted . I read every single comment in this topic.

[RichBC]

Yesterday was +1.39% and 146 Blocks. We seem to be settling into a band between Zero and +5% with the Period Run Rate 6 Hours in Today at +4%. Let's see where we go from here?

Rich

[philipma1957]

Yesterday was +1.39% and 146 Blocks. We seem to be settling into a band between Zero and +5% with the Period Run Rate 6 Hours in Today at +4%. Let's see where we go from here?

Rich

PICKS OPEN IN ABOUT 100 BLOCKS


Some help to pick 

real time 2.7%  bitcoinwisdom estimate -1.83%     bitcoincharts + 2.71 %  with an up tick



 So we are close to   -1.83    to    +2.7%  

   If you told me pick right now I would pick higher then +1 %  lower then +5%

we have time to pick do not feel rushed.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   178,659,257,773
Estimated Next Difficulty:   175,392,881,262(-1.83%) <<the estimate for the period is based on end of old adjustment it is wrong
Adjust time:   After 1519 Blocks, About 10.7 days
Hashrate(?):   1,335,014,458 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   12:25 (2.8 minutes ago)


https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   409747
Total BTC   15.494M
 
Difficulty   178659257773
Estimated   179107715717 in 1517 blks   <<<<< here is real time about +2.7%
 
Network total   1525602.780 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.16 / 503 s


look at the chart below

[philipma1957]

PICKS OPEN IN ABOUT 28 BLOCKS


Some help to pick  





 So we are close to      to    +2.7%  

   If you told me pick right now I would pick higher then +1 %  lower then +5%

we have time to pick do not feel rushed.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty






Bitcoin Difficulty:   178,659,257,773
Estimated Next Difficulty:   177,120,609,112 (-0.86%)
Adjust time:   After 1444 Blocks, About 10.0 days  >> start at 1416
Hashrate(?):   1,358,440,621 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.8 minutes
6 blocks: 59.6 minutes
Updated:   23:35 (4.6 minutes ago)


https://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   409820
Total BTC   15.496M
 
Difficulty   178659257773
Estimated   180088929694 in 1444 blks
 
Network total   1426028.503 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.69 / 538 s

so above is real time    1801/1786 =  0.8%








Frankly  we are higher then both estimates at the moment.

[alh]

So are we seeing some kind of deliberate pattern where say 100PH gets switched on shortly after the adjustment, and left to run for 5-6 days, and then switched off in the hopes that the overall difficulty doesn't rise to much for the next adjustment? During the 5-6 days they get a larger share of the pie, but don't have to pay the price with a higher difficulty later on?

I can't figure out if the math would work for that, or if we are trying to find something that isn't actually there.

Most interesting speculation.