Bitcoin Forum

I'm usually big on technical analysis and it has served me well many many times.  But any good technical analyst knows that news can jolt an equity out its pattern at any given time.

I think silberts etf that's about to hit the market any day is a game changer.  This opens up a whole new class of investors.  People could add bitcoin to their 401k for Christ sake to get a little speculative.

I think ordinary people at scared to hold bitcoin themselves for fear it will be stolen or whatever.  This gives them an easy way to invest now in a format that they're comfortable with.

Careful with the Silbert "ETF", it's not a real ETF, it's OTCQX, more like pink sheets penny stocks stuff.

OTCQX moves in average $70 million per YEAR per security. BTC market without Chinese exchanges does $70MM in less than 2-3 days.

What you are talking about (securing the BTC with a format they are comfortable with) will come with the Winklevoss ETF, if it ever comes.

The average volume per security means absolutely nothing to the amount of volume Gbit might do

I was the under the impression the setup was a bit sketchier than what the Winklevii are proposing. I'll guess quite a few people might hold off for a fully SEC approved version.

ETF i don't think that's any good news, coinbase is still available, they can invest in BTC anytime
I can't tell how market will react,
but lol at bitcoin ETF opens door for big guys,, phew

big investors are busy dealing with other stuff!!!!

i dont think it's game changer,

Nobody is going to invest their 401K in an asset that lost 80% in a year.

LOL

Read up on what it means. You don't have to secure them yourself. You can buy through a broker. You can channel it through tax free options. It'll be regulated properly.

Whether anyone wants to invest is a different question, but there's never been anything quite like it before. If a few million old lunatics throw away half a per cent of their retirement funds as a flat out gamble it dwarfs the existing market cap.

Many people buy and hold bitcoin just for the fun of owning some bitcoin. They usually buy 1 btc and be done with it. If they want to hold bitcoin as an investment, an ETF is certainly an easier method.

^^^This.

In 2014 Silbert promised that "Wall Street was going to enter bitcoin in a massive way" while a lot of investors of his second market fund have been totally screwed (bagholding since higher and they still can't withdraw (redemptions) anything for now). Other venture capital big guys like Tim Draper and Bill Miller are bagholding pretty hard too.

There was a lot of hype around Coinbase because "regulated!! OMG so much liquidity! volatility will decrease! institutional investors are coming! mooooon! NSYE!". Well, look at it now, nobody is using that "regulated" exchange. Less than a million on the order books and nobody cares.

It looks like some markets are boing opened where institutional investors could get in (Noble market-whatever, the pink sheets Silbert thing, etc)
Alright.
Will they get in? Prolly not.

It's foolish to think that an offer on OTCQX is going to get Bitcoin to $100,000+.  

However I'm pretty sure that GBTC will get more than 70 million USD in the first year.

Actually that's precisely what a lot of smart investors do. After a market crash prices are relatively cheap so it's attractive to buy if you are looking to hold long term.

The expression be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful holds true here. Thats the way to make profit

US investors have had an investment option forced onto them via zero interest rates for years: the stock market. People will ride that wave til the end thinking they'll time the market. The flow on from this, coupled with the relatively negative press of the last year post Gox might offer a partial explanation of the lack of comparative price speculation from US investors.

I was under the impression that China does the bulk of the btc speculating?

technicals not works in bitcoins/

Technicals DO work in Bitcoin just like they work in anything else.  Have you noticed how it's bounced off that 14 month resistance line many many times?  However, technical analysis patterns are generally broken at some point in time.  I think we are nearing that time to break out, and I believe the Silbert ETF could be the development that does it.

Technicals if it can guarantee at least 60 percent chance of winning that is already good enough. So usually it will only apply in condition where there is no major news announcement expected. I don't know about you but for me, I haven't really find out one that can have that success rate, and which is why I'm a bit skeptical when it comes to so-called detailed analysis.

No indeed, why would they buy an undervalued asset?

Buy high, sell low!

Yeah in an index like S&P.  Not sone crappy pennystock

In order for something to be be undervalued, it has to have value in the first place. 

"It's a mirage" - Warren Buffett about Bitcoin

While fundamental works in Bitcoin, that's why Bitcoin never made much progress in last few year.

because it could fall even lower, is bitcoin really undervaluted? what if the current price is too much for it

remember that the value of bitcoin is given by people, it has nothing to do with the supply cap

If you really think Bitcoin has no value, why have you been wasting your time on here for the last year?

Entertainment and warning people to stay away after some idiot tried to convince my retired father to invest his retirement money in a "once in a lifetime" opportunity. Saved him like $50K in losses he was about to invest

Ive personally saved 9 people from losing about $200K in total by telling them to stay away from bubble highs.  Feel great about that

There's nothing wrong with telling people not to invest during bubble highs, but to say that Bitcoin has no value is intentionally misleading. I think your continued feeling of self-importance over saving people from their own stupidity is preventing you from seeing Bitcoin in a balanced way, unfortunately.

Nope its has no value as in value investing because price is purely speculative.  In order for you determine value you need fundamentals. 
Things like risk adjusted return

Besides from that the economics are all wrong.

@twiifm i hope they are understanding when they miss out on the next bitcoin rise

You think bitcoin is the only investment in the world?

Nope I like other hard assets too, gold, silver, land, properties. Steering well away from stock market though. Without going into huge detail I think global economy is not recovering as people in media proclaim and huge turmoil awaits. Hard assets (and likely bitcoin too) will protect from currency events.

Anyway, didn't mean to sound rude was going to go back and edit my comment but forgot. Point I'm trying to make is that although you gave great advice when bitcoin was in a huge bubble due to correct but now the market is very different from then. The correction could be over is it wise to continue to steer people out of bitcoin?