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Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: brokenchair on March 31, 2015, 06:54:07 PM



Title: averaging down
Post by: brokenchair on March 31, 2015, 06:54:07 PM
Have a lot of you been doing this the entire time?
Debating doing a large purchase, but then again every time I have tried to do this well......look at the btc price history for the past year........ and of course the current decline since the last time we crossed 300 



Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: stonerider on March 31, 2015, 07:23:14 PM
Bitcoin is a perpetually declining commodity, due to miners dumping and whales shorting. There will be brief periods of pumping by the whales and early adopters, so wait until then.


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: gentlemand on March 31, 2015, 07:27:01 PM
Nope. I set a limit as to what I was willing to spend and how many coins I thought would make a difference to my life in the future if it really took off and stuck to it. If I want more then I'll earn it or trade for it.

If it dies, so be it. I'm not going to chase it downwards. The idea of spending more to reduce a loss doesn't really compute for me.


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: NUFCrichard on March 31, 2015, 07:31:18 PM
Have a lot of you been doing this the entire time?
Debating doing a large purchase, but then again every time I have tried to do this well......look at the btc price history for the past year........ and of course the current decline since the last time we crossed 300 



Make every decision independently of all of your others.
If you would buy now, forgetting the fact that you bought at a higher price, then buy.  If you would not buy, but want to as you have bought at a higher price, don't buy.

What you do now and what you have done before are independent events.


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: AmDD on March 31, 2015, 07:32:43 PM
I used to try and buy at the right time during the lows, etc and ended up getting burnt. Now I buy once a week, every week, regardless of price.


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: spazzdla on March 31, 2015, 07:35:13 PM
I have been buying all the way down to bring down my average buy price.

Right now is probably a decent idea, I am debating doing it myself.


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: Raystonn on March 31, 2015, 07:43:55 PM
My income is paid partly in Bitcoin.  The amount is based on the market value in USD.  When price is lower, I receive more Bitcoins.  This will continue until I have cornered the Bitcoin market or price is so high that I have retired.



Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: ElectricMucus on March 31, 2015, 07:48:28 PM
lol, this thread


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: brokenchair on March 31, 2015, 08:25:53 PM
Thanks for the replies. 
I guess i'll transfer money to an exchange just incase anything big happens anytime soon, but right now I feel like its such a gamble. 


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: uki on March 31, 2015, 08:57:00 PM
Have a lot of you been doing this the entire time?
Debating doing a large purchase, but then again every time I have tried to do this well......look at the btc price history for the past year........ and of course the current decline since the last time we crossed 300 

not a good idea, unless you have really big pockets.
Remember that market can always move in the 'wrong direction' longer that you can afford.


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: Torque on March 31, 2015, 10:11:19 PM
Yes I'll admit that I've "averaged down" on bitcoin.  Actually just bought some more @ $220 a month ago, and still don't regret it.  At some point you have to let it ride, man.

Only bulls and permabulls do this.

The bear troll day traders would never do this, they only open/close long short bitcoin positions in short time frames.  But of course, day traders don't see bitcoin as real money, as an asset to hold long term and actually use in the real world.  They only see it as something that can use to profit (or lose) more fiat on.  Most of them lose... constantly.

Something to consider:  
When bitcoin takes off again, it'll catch you completely off-guard.  It'll triple in price before you can even hit the "buy" button.  So ask yourself, is that really the place you want to be, being late to the party?


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: techgeek on March 31, 2015, 10:15:34 PM
Nope. I set a limit as to what I was willing to spend and how many coins I thought would make a difference to my life in the future if it really took off and stuck to it. If I want more then I'll earn it or trade for it.

If it dies, so be it. I'm not going to chase it downwards. The idea of spending more to reduce a loss doesn't really compute for me.

Pretty smart.

I think most can learn from this, is that its better to not chase trades that may or may not go up. I tooken a similar approach with bitcoin as well, I earn most of mine and thats obviously with other misc work or signatures like 90% users are on this forum.

But I will never go buy it, and yeah some people call me a fool, but how can you call a fool when someones trying to predict the future?


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: Biodom on March 31, 2015, 10:51:18 PM
Nope. I set a limit as to what I was willing to spend and how many coins I thought would make a difference to my life in the future if it really took off and stuck to it. If I want more then I'll earn it or trade for it.

If it dies, so be it. I'm not going to chase it downwards. The idea of spending more to reduce a loss doesn't really compute for me.

yeah, my feelings exactly. Not going to chase it. If it is going to make it-OK. If not, then it would not.
Averaging down does not work in 80-90% cases on the stock market as well.


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: Torque on March 31, 2015, 10:58:07 PM
Nope. I set a limit as to what I was willing to spend and how many coins I thought would make a difference to my life in the future if it really took off and stuck to it. If I want more then I'll earn it or trade for it.

If it dies, so be it. I'm not going to chase it downwards. The idea of spending more to reduce a loss doesn't really compute for me.

yeah, my feelings exactly. Not going to chase it. If it is going to make it-OK. If not, then it would not.
Averaging down does not work in 80-90% cases on the stock market as well.

Cool, wait for an uptrend to be confirmed at 400+, then buy.

(But then you could have bought at $240, oh well... you can chase it on the way up)


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: uki on March 31, 2015, 11:02:49 PM
Nope. I set a limit as to what I was willing to spend and how many coins I thought would make a difference to my life in the future if it really took off and stuck to it. If I want more then I'll earn it or trade for it.

If it dies, so be it. I'm not going to chase it downwards. The idea of spending more to reduce a loss doesn't really compute for me.

yeah, my feelings exactly. Not going to chase it. If it is going to make it-OK. If not, then it would not.
Averaging down does not work in 80-90% cases on the stock market as well.

Cool, wait for an uptrend to be confirmed at 400+, then buy.

(But then you could have bought at $240, oh well... you can chase it on the way up)
Don't let your trades to be driven by greed, especially on the potential future gains.
If you don't catch the exact bottom, then be it, but you are in at least at the point when you are sure that the trend is as you think it is.


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: waterpile on April 01, 2015, 02:25:18 AM
I have been buying all the way down to bring down my average buy price.

Right now is probably a decent idea, I am debating doing it myself.

Yup, hold until another price hike happens.


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: JimboToronto on April 01, 2015, 03:34:14 AM
Every time I buy on the dips, I'm averaging my price up, even when I bought at $175 mid-January.

No, I'm not an early adopter (any more than we're all early adopters). I paid double digits for most of my coins, triple digits for some. Never have I paid single digits or pennies.


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: hyphymikey on April 01, 2015, 04:05:53 AM
Every time I buy on the dips, I'm averaging my price up, even when I bought at $175 mid-January.

No, I'm not an early adopter (any more than we're all early adopters). I paid double digits for most of my coins, triple digits for some. Never have I paid single digits or pennies.

Same here. Got some close to single digits though, but used most of those on purchases in 2013.

Now I just constantly buy, just about everyday. I try to buy the dips just to have some fun, and screw over the bears (buy the coins at the bottom of a dip that they were dumping to get to). Average is still in the double digits though. As soon as the funds start up I will roll over my 401k and use my companies 2 to 1 matching to grow my stash. That will definitely bring my average to triple digits. I'm a permabull so the only number I look at is how many coins, not how much they are worth.


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: NUFCrichard on April 01, 2015, 05:14:19 AM
Nope. I set a limit as to what I was willing to spend and how many coins I thought would make a difference to my life in the future if it really took off and stuck to it. If I want more then I'll earn it or trade for it.

If it dies, so be it. I'm not going to chase it downwards. The idea of spending more to reduce a loss doesn't really compute for me.

yeah, my feelings exactly. Not going to chase it. If it is going to make it-OK. If not, then it would not.
Averaging down does not work in 80-90% cases on the stock market as well.

Cool, wait for an uptrend to be confirmed at 400+, then buy.

(But then you could have bought at $240, oh well... you can chase it on the way up)
Not certain if this is meant sarcastically or not, but this thinking is one of the main reasons people lose money on stocks and investments. They wait for the market to move, then trade, meaning they buy high sell low, whereas obviously you want to do it the other way round.

Never chase it, down or up!


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: JimboToronto on April 01, 2015, 05:22:11 AM
Every time I buy on the dips, I'm averaging my price up, even when I bought at $175 mid-January.

No, I'm not an early adopter (any more than we're all early adopters). I paid double digits for most of my coins, triple digits for some. Never have I paid single digits or pennies.

Same here. Got some close to single digits though, but used most of those on purchases in 2013.

Now I just constantly buy, just about everyday. I try to buy the dips just to have some fun, and screw over the bears (buy the coins at the bottom of a dip that they were dumping to get to). Average is still in the double digits though. As soon as the funds start up I will roll over my 401k and use my companies 2 to 1 matching to grow my stash. That will definitely bring my average to triple digits. I'm a permabull so the only number I look at is how many coins, not how much they are worth.

Smart man.

My biggest mistake was to only buy hundreds rather than thousands of coins when I had the chance.

Now I have to be content to just buy a few coins now and then as my budget allows. My last purchase of >10BTC in a single day was in mid-January and I had to reallocate funds from other areas to accomplish that. I'm not poor but I'm not rich either.


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: Bit_Happy on April 01, 2015, 05:22:32 AM
Nope. I set a limit as to what I was willing to spend and how many coins I thought would make a difference to my life in the future if it really took off and stuck to it. If I want more then I'll earn it or trade for it.

If it dies, so be it. I'm not going to chase it downwards. The idea of spending more to reduce a loss doesn't really compute for me.

yeah, my feelings exactly. Not going to chase it. If it is going to make it-OK. If not, then it would not.
Averaging down does not work in 80-90% cases on the stock market as well.

Cool, wait for an uptrend to be confirmed at 400+, then buy.

(But then you could have bought at $240, oh well... you can chase it on the way up)
Not certain if this is meant sarcastically or not, but this thinking is one of the main reasons people lose money on stocks and investments. They wait for the market to move, then trade, meaning they buy high sell low, whereas obviously you want to do it the other way round.

Never chase it, down or up!

Sarcastic or not, many people do trade that way, and it can provide great rewards for short-term traders.
Shhhh... Don't tell the newbies.  :)


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: Amph on April 01, 2015, 09:52:14 AM
Thanks for the replies. 
I guess i'll transfer money to an exchange just incase anything big happens anytime soon, but right now I feel like its such a gamble. 

you should buy, everytime you see a stable price like the current one that remain there for weeks/months, it mean that it is time to buy

i do not see it dropping much further, loss should be minimal


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: WhatTheGox on April 01, 2015, 10:12:11 AM
I used to try and buy at the right time during the lows, etc and ended up getting burnt. Now I buy once a week, every week, regardless of price.

same, why bother trading something with such moon potential at any moment... dont fancy sitting in front of a screen all day so just buy and hold.


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: manselr on April 01, 2015, 06:31:40 PM
Have a lot of you been doing this the entire time?
Debating doing a large purchase, but then again every time I have tried to do this well......look at the btc price history for the past year........ and of course the current decline since the last time we crossed 300 


Everyday that you haven't gone all in since sub 300 is an huge risk. Why you ask? well it's simple, you will see in a couple of years how trying to buy at 300, 200 or 100 was a joke compared to the gains that were to be made, and the huge risk it was, with the perspective of time.


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: gentlemand on April 01, 2015, 06:37:28 PM

Everyday that you haven't gone all in since sub 300 is an huge risk. Why you ask? well it's simple, you will see in a couple of years how trying to buy at 300, 200 or 100 was a joke compared to the gains that were to be made, and the huge risk it was, with the perspective of time.


It's a long, long way from being in the bag. Very soon we'll be at a lower price than we were two years ago, albeit very briefly.

The case for gains is strong. There are things happening and developing that would've been inconceivable just a short while ago. The downside case has plenty of merits too.

Peeps should keep their wits and sense of perspective close at hand. Nothing is guaranteed to anyone.



Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: Raystonn on April 01, 2015, 06:38:31 PM
That's not quite true.  If you can buy 3 times as many Bitcoin at $100 each, then the future gains will be triple.  Your argument only stands if you are planning on buying X Bitcoins regardless of price.


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: afbitcoins on April 01, 2015, 10:44:08 PM
I bought in at higher prices and now I'm buying in again getting much more bitcoin for my fiat. I don't see it as averaging down though. I'm just taking advantage of prices lower than i thought I'd see. Quite  glad of the chance, these prices are a gift


Title: Re: averaging down
Post by: Dafar on April 01, 2015, 11:30:10 PM
Nope. I set a limit as to what I was willing to spend and how many coins I thought would make a difference to my life in the future if it really took off and stuck to it. If I want more then I'll earn it or trade for it.

If it dies, so be it. I'm not going to chase it downwards. The idea of spending more to reduce a loss doesn't really compute for me.

I'm on the same boat