Bitcoin Forum

When are we going to see the price settle back down for a brief interval before resuming its inexorable upward plod?

1:56pm Eastern time. No, You are asking an un-answerable question.

A better question will be how high will it go before popping and how low it will be? One very real possibility is the the low after the next crash might be a lot higher than the current price.

The foundation of this "bubble" is very strong. I'm not even sure that we have a bubble yet. That phase might just be beginning.

Doesn't looks like a bubble to me, far from hockey stick shape. Maybe later some panic buynig will form bubble, but so far its slow and steady, healthy growth.

agree, this isn't bubble yet, just more demand than what's available out there

no bubble.
more buyer, than seller. thats all.

Prisoners Dilemma as a practical joke.

this is just a notch more complicatedobvious.
popcorn.gif

I'm thinking soon. I'm keeping my btc positions for shorter periods of time and taking more time between buying in...It means missing out on making as much money as I could be, but I don't trust the market at all right now.

There is two ways of current situation:
1. Bubble will pop after raising around 17 BTC then goes down to 1.99
1. Bubble will not pop and the price goes to 30 and up.

may I rent your crystal balls some time? (no pun intended)

If history repeats itself, there will be a 100% increase in a very short period, then the bubble pops.

this is not a bubble because their would be extreme support at 9ish ( even without the new big bull player )

any significant rise from here is a bubble

i do not think the market will allow for another bubble, the same way we saw last year...

but if the new bull keeps buying the way he has been... the market might have no choice but go into bubble mode.

hopefully this bubble to say 30 will stop the new bull from buying, then we'll see a crash to 12 where the new bull will resume his constant buying and supporting

What's with all the new signups and their crystal balls?

Last time it was a 3800% increase in 2 months.

this will not happen,

this only happened because people were thinking this was it, bitcoin was going to take over.

no one is that naive anymore....

i am

as long as people with money believe that, i am ok  :D

I hope you're right :)

(I want a slow and steady raise.)

Except those who haven't heard about bitcoin yet.

But yeah, I don't except that kind of money flow into Bitcoin any soon. If not any other reason, the scalability issue is still not resolved. If a huge number of new people buy bitcoins and start playing with them the transactions start to drop.

Learn to read charts people we just had a break out next resistance is 14.

When s/t bad happens (like Gox). e.g. Pirate vanish.
Then BTC would be famous as the only money backed by drugs and ponzis. (Not that I would not invest any more in it)

Or when ppl figures out that the blockchain growth is not practical and/or cannot sustain a serious traffic of Tx.

Sure I haven't crystal ball, it's just a humble opinion.  ::) https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=100562.0

No one believes that

whats driving up the price is the thought that, as long as bitcoin continues to grow and improve, everyone holding will continue to hold,  no matter what the price....

we see no sign that bitcoin will ever stop growing, so....

yes this is one issue that, if not solved. could kill bitcoin...

the buying of drugs online using bitcoin will continue. but people will stop believing it will ever be anything more

The problem is nobody knows and haven't any signs. Dump will be sudden and dramatic.

At this point it depends whether demand winds down or not

Are you sure? 15% of the generated coins is more than 1 million.

To dump it below $9 would take less than 75,000 BTC on MTgox.

Look closer next time. 

plz elaborate on this issue.  Are you saying that if bitcoin got too big it wouldn't work?

It would take a bit more that that to hold it there. It'll just bounce back.

LOL.  sure it would. 

Instantly I'm sure. 

The entire blockchain is approaching 2 GB rapidly and accelerating.  This will pose a problem down the road as just downloading the blockchain will take days. 

isn't the solution to this just having online wallets? it's my understanding that blockchain.info doesn't have access to your wallet and even if the website went offline you would still have access to your coins.  Whats the downside to online wallets if this is true?  Do you have to download the blockchain to get your coins if they go offline?

Where are you getting your data?  This (http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html) shows that it would take ~97,000 BTC to drop the price $8.  300k BTCs would push the price all the way down to $1.15.

People want to pretend there is more demand than there really is. 

I think hes adding up all the different markets to get his 300k figure.

yea, if you sold 300k btc's all on the mtgox/USD market then it would go to 1.15.  why would someone do that when they could sell in a lot of different currencies and get a lot more money out of them?

i think you guys are assuming that the mtgox/USD depth is all that's there.

It's the same bid orders converted to different currencies.

Yup, nothing stopping you from just running a client in the background. 2 gig? No big whoop, really.

2 GB now.....the growth rate is accelerating and will be much, much larger in a year. 

this is news to me.

This prediction assumes that nothing is done to fix the scaling issues. As far as I know this is one of the priorities for the development team.

The good news is that there's also less coins for sale than it appears  :D

last time the bubble popped because many ppl lost faith due to the "goxing" that occurred.   If none of the major exchanges get hacked again we could see it reach $20 - $30 again very soon and even achieve stability at those prices..

No bubble here so no popping either... but I am selling some at these levels as we are in dire need of a pullback.  The technical are maxed out on every time scale from what I can see and its going to be more profitable to be a bear for the next couple days/weeks I think.

I would not be suprised to see a pullback to 10-ish or so.....but not much more than that. 

Not really IMO. The $30 dollar coin last year would have drastically popped regardless. It might have continued for longer if the goxing didn't occur.

What you see is bitcoins flowing from weak hands to strong hands. It can keep going on for long time, until it stops for a while.

Sounds about right.

+1000 They aint gonna get my coins anytime soon.

just hold. bitcoin can only go up up up!

i'm glad i got out at $3.    whew.

Yeah, I want a few more zeros on the price here.

Bitcoin prices can only go up.  Bitcoin will continue it's inexorable %10 weekly rise.  Anyone who buys now, will be billionaires.  Those who don't, will be stuck with worthless fiat currency and live in tents.
</sarcasm>

Accelerating growth is the sign of a bubble.  It will keep accelerating until it's too fast, then pop.  When I said 100% rise in a short period, I meant a weekend or a day.
</speculation>

I guess I always assumed this was correct, Gox just does currency conversion as needed, the demand side is still the same pressure. Don't quote me on this though. In fact, if more Americans are selling Bitcoins for US cash than someone is buying in another currency it would entirely explain the problems Gox is having getting cash to customers.

it's not a bubble because it's a very controlled growth. But  as people see it grow so regurlarly, groth will keep accelerating until ... I don't know until when, but I don't think there will be some major draw back.

Of course there can be some serious player coming in, and then we look at several folds increase in a short time, and stabilisation at a far higher price. Considering the potential I see it as possible.

+1

By the way, are you still working on a paypal-like system for bitcoin? (sorry if you don't want to talk about it)

Well with last nights spikes my trading funds are now all USD... Nice daily doji candle could turn into red volume very easily... daily slow stoch has crossed down. 

I say the top is in.

Interesting thing, I am glad I stayed out of this.

It's nice to see how certain people shift in their statements over the time. Makes me more confident to read up on how to implement a bot.  
This is to me: I'd never make a single trade till I got something working, that should hopefully motivate myself. ;D

So will my hard drive.

There is even the chance that the whole world economy "pops" at once before the BTC price. Anyway the banksters have the same expectations of all the BTC bulls here:

From: http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2012/08/a-waiting-game/ (http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2012/08/a-waiting-game/) :

"I don’t think the banks will lend in to the real economy because they calculate that such a socially useful strategy gives low returns to them. Should they ‘defect’ from this generous strategy and chose instead the selfish strategy of ‘hoard and wait’ then they could make not just a large return but an epic one. They could emerge as owners of everything people will need in order to rebuild their lives. Water, power, rail, hospitals, you name it.

This is what the banks are waiting for. And our politicians are giving them our money so they can."

this is what i've been saying since i came here.  what do you think this does to the price of gold?

Sorry, I couldn't help it.

I am not so sure. I own gold and silver from 2008, but in case of a proper collapse as it may happen, I think even us gold and BTC bugs are going to be royally phucked like the rest. The best investment would probably be some good piece of land in South America, or an underground nuke-proof bunker and lots of spam.

Feeling a little nihilistic?  :-\

No, just realist: once "they" monopolize even water and/or tax you even for collecting rainwater, owning some gold or BTC is not going to save your butt in the medium term.

That is already the case.

But they can't sweep every spot, people survived the soviet system and they didn't have the means for creating mesh networks. I doubt they switch off the power grid, they are not that desperate.

I've thought so many times that the new high at the time must be the top. I've been wrong every time.

Up we go.

Me too. But I won't do another non-automated trade, intuition based trading is just too ineffective.

you really think the people of the world would let a govt. tax them for collecting rainwater?  there would hopefully be a very strong resistance to any bs like this. i have enough faith in people that we wont let this kind of crap happen.  they wouldnt have enough police to try and stop everyone from collecting rainwater.

I have read the article and it begs the question: Is it really the banks not willing to lend or is that many people are not willing to borrow?

You are an optimist, aren't you?

Gary Harrington, Oregon Resident, Sentenced To Jail For Stockpiling Rainwater
Posted: 08/16/2012
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/16/gary-harrington-oregon-water-rainwater_n_1784378.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/16/gary-harrington-oregon-water-rainwater_n_1784378.html)

 

Article refers to borrowing by businesses, not consumers. But it is just a detail. The point is that in a shock economy they will be able to get everything for peanuts as always, in order to transform us in s/t worse than medieval serfs. The funny thing is that all this is possible using our money.

does one man really need 13 million gallons of water all for himself? it doesnt take that much water to grow a garden
to feed a family. 

Bitcon, try this one, then let's get back on topic:
 http://jamesptaylor.wordpress.com/2007/11/29/bolivia-bechtel-and-the-fight-for-public-water/

Just wanted to point out the I was wrong...

Should I rebuy in for a loss like the rest of the tempbears?

Bitcoin prices can only go up.  Bitcoin will continue it's inexorable %10 weekly daily rise.  Anyone who buys now, will be billionaires.  Those who don't, will be stuck with worthless fiat currency and live in tents.

I thought the same thing last summer.

Its kinda sad to see the market hasnt learned its lesson.

You forgot the "</sarcasm>" :)

I spit out my coffee when I read this.  Bravo sir. 

u guys are forgetting that when this bubble pops mtgox will just crash, revealing the bear's move.

It's pretty hockey-stickish when you look at a year-long chart.

The tricky thing is that it could just be a reflection of how bad things are going with fiat...or a bubble.   :-\

Only missed it by a day

Pop!

+10000 XDXD

Yep, I guess we got a very precise answer for that.

This is actually not a random timing: Friday in the US, after an over-heated rally. Look at the main bubble, it also started its main drop on a Friday. (And the order book looked very similar at the time.)

When will this bubble pop?



Right now