Bitcoin Forum

Well, it starts to look like a pattern, bitcoin starts to raise in June and drops dead in September. Wonder what causes this... summer holidays?
For those believing in miracles and claiming to not see the "J" shape of a bubble, just look at 1 year chart... you'll see it there, just by late July. [http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv]
Good news however, this time the bubble didn't went postal, just up to 13, maybe still go up to 15, so its drop will be "soften", perhaps to 4~5 USD for a while to recover to 7~8.

So yeah, bottom line: it's a great time to sell and welcome the new batch of bitcoiners. Let's see about next year, if it goes as before, they will become disappointed about bitcoin (making a hell of good time to buy) by October, learn how to use it by Jan-Feb 13 (if the World doesn't end in 2012 that is) and by Feb-Jun'13 we can expect a smooth bitcoin behavior before the summer peak again.
Just my 2 cents...

 ;D

"4~5 USD" i lol'd

the crash wont pass 10...

summer rise is probably due to Tax returns coming in.

Well, this seams to be new batches of bitcoiners, as its users peaks also. This new folks tend to panic sell once they see it drop, therefore the crash is unusually hard. Remember last year? It crashed to almost 2 USD. Once the panic sell settles bitcoin corrects its behavior, if it goes like last year again.

ya but last year it went mush higher then it should have...

plus there was really good resons to sell

bad news everywhere!

now all this is a good old fashion correction

the rally to 10 was justified... and is a reasonable value for bitcoins given the new demand

i think this correction will be even smaller then the one from the 7.22 high

wishful thinking

give me $2 BTC anytime, i'll take 'em!

Yep we've seen like what, 2-3 data points and we already draw far reaching conclusions? Statistics 101 is your prescription.

Took the words right out of my mouth. Anyone who sees a pattern after two cycles should not be posting in "speculation" but in "magic"

Winter is coming...

You're such a northern-hemispherian....

The night is dark and full of terror.

maybe it is just me but it seems like someone is trying to prop the price up past 13 and will fail shortly.
just watching goxlive and moodies.

we'll need to test the top a few time b4 we go into a bear market

But we won't... triangle mode for a day or two, then breakout.

When someone wants to believe in something, he simple does... that's why we still have religion around. Same for speculation, actually speculation is more of a cancer than something good, and yes, it's mostly "belief" and "magic".
But when the trend is too good it means speculation is hitting the vital organs of the thing under speculation. When a value increases too suddenly and too much, it in fact reduces usability of the thing, make the thing that's trending up to actually worth less, it's just a matter of balance, like gold these late years, going sky high making it so expensive that no one dares to wear gold on its main function; jewelery... making it actually worthless as value depends on how people uses it to create demand. Same goes for BTC, those bumps just hurt the economy. But bottom line: nothing grows forever or towards the infinite and eventually usability and value will come to balance.

4 to 5 usd?

lol!!!!!!!!!!

keep dreaming :D :D :D

People buy more drugs in the summer ;)

From the markets "down bellow", of the 2 I know to be still standing, I don't see where it may help on raise btc value, as the bigger one is hedged. Unless I'm that outdated and the other one has raised too and isn't hedged.

Want magic sub-forum now.

someone sells, hoping rest will follow, if they don't follow, start telling it must go down because speculation is like religion and we like to believe in what we want =)

Oh no m8! I didn't sell. I'm one of the "primitive btc users", actually those bubbles makes me temporarily rich.  ;D
The problem is that they hurt hard the market, by market I mean REAL economy markets, and not a bunch of "wizards" gathering at Hogwarts as speculators are, which relies more in a stable currency than what value the currency itself helds.

While I agree stability is ultimately desirable, I believe the price needs to go up significantly for the market to sustain certain kinds of activity (e.g. settlement between significantly sized accounts globally). Having BTCUSD < $1000 puts serious limits on the kind of activity that can occur in the market. I'm really not interested in stability until that level, and I do view buying below that level as a long-term good bet. Even at that level, the total bitcoin monetary base would be worth $21 billion, which still leaves some room for gradual growth.

You have a point, but if we ever stuck in $5s  it will stay as a nerdy-small-niche thing. Now here is a scenario, what do you think happens when some one of few are ready to put in serious cash in it?  By the looks of it there is a rush among 2 or more new big players, and they are in acquisition mode, there is nothing else except going up while rest of the world learns more about Bitcoin from media and people talking about it. It was bound to happen.  $50 million market cap is just too unsustainable for a global currency

Sure, but being stable doesn't mean being frozen. A steady uptrend is more desirable than these bumps. Have it at 5 and 2 months later at 7, 2 months later 9, etc, is normal and good, but have it going up 100%+ in one month, knowing it will be "corrected" shortly after, isn't. Merchants may be now selling their wares for 10 BTC (130 USD) and restock next month with BTC @, let's say, 7 or 8 USD, so they've sold that for only 70 or 80 USD, and this is a problem, unless they run to exchange it to fiat, but then we will never have a bitcoin economy but a "bitcoin paypal" instead.

A bitcoin paypal is good enough for the economy for the time being, particularly if merchants store off a small amount of btc as a speculative store of value. The net effect would be a lot of price support at any level, leaving the door wide open for a market cornering that drives the price up to reasonable levels. I believe we're starting to see this exact effect on a small scale right now. I do think we need another stable period to get more exchange-rate following price support, but I doubt that'll happen until somewhere in the $20-$100 range.

https://twitter.com/kevinrose/status/235266398899810304
http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2012/08/bitcoin-update.html

and there is more stuff out in the media and else where


gotta act quick while it is still under appreciated. I agree with you on stable slow growth, but it isn't going to work with inflow of new people, there will be period of rush, volatility and what have you while Bitcoin still being discovered.

ah, the ol' summer bubble.  i remember the summer bubble of the '05 housing market. personally i see a direct correlation between the rise of the coin and the dark knight rises.   has to be the real reason.

I think we are seeing a sort of Summer Bubble. But more importantly, we are seeing the true value of Bitcoin. I think it's starting to click in everyone's mind that Bitcoin is here to stay. Yes, the demand is going up bit cause... well, it's Summer. But I think it's a bit of "Hey man, Bitcoin's here to stay. I want some. This is a smart investment."

Don't worry: the speculators who cause unnecessary instability lose money on average.

I don't think it's fair to just talk about "speculators" as if they're all one and the same. Ultimately, it's speculators who provide liquidity, allowing larger players to move in and out of Bitcoin quickly and easily. But it needs much more time.

No reason to panic or blame Bitcoin. We can stabilize this beast eventually. Not overnight though.

There is not enough summers to make any conclusions about anything. Personally I believe the time of the year is 100% coincidence. Although the time between these two mega rallies might have significance. The original time was mostly due to Silk Road and the first boom, it was a complete coincidence that it was the Summer. Now it has been 1 year and maybe that has significance in itself.

Its only summer on half the globe.

Yeah the vastly mostly populated half.

I think btc is volatile because of its tiny capitalisation. And because of its sometimes immature userbase.  ;)

Any merchant who doesn't update their prices more than once a month probably shouldn't be a merchant ... for a lot of reasons.

It is pretty easy for a merchant to support dynamic prices in BTC so they get the same amount of fiat currency to rebuy inventory.  Hell bitpay is even clever enough to allow a merchant to take 85% in fiat and 15% in BTC so they can pay the bills and still have some long exposure to bitcoin.

Yup, the good folks at Bitpay have dealt with the volatility issue for merchants IMO. They just need to get the word out more.

+1

But that monetary base isn't garanteed :/

It's hard to know if this a pattern with only two examples. If it happens next year then I may look at strategies to profit from such a phenomena.

"Summer bubble had me a blast.

Summer bubble happened so fast.

I met a Coin crazy for me.

Met a USD cute as can be.

Summer highs driftin' away, to uh-oh those summer lows."

There may be a difference to last time: Last time there were a lot of early adopters cashing out - probably wanting to buy a Porsche, which is understandable. So the bubble burst.

Now it seems most early adopters are pretty much empty. They may have kept a few 1000, but the only "early adopter" I know of who has significant amounts is Satoshi himself.

If that is correct, we can expect a slow rise, maybe with temporal set backs. But a pattern entirely different from last year. But no more crashing. I think we will never again see single $ digits.

This is very true... In a state of the 50, which experiences two seasons. Winter, and Construction.

On an on-topic note, this massive spike in price is officially starting to scare me. Someone get Proudhon in here to talk everyone down from their rally-highs...

A wella wella wella ...

Tell me more tell me more did your sell go too far?

The bears and shorts are getting scared. Real scared.

How close is that big scary margin call? $1? $2? Are you already in over your head? ;D

Exactly. Stability will be nice, but we shouldn't wish for stability at current prices.  The fact is that right now Bitcoin is, from a pure numbers perspective, a joke.  If we ever do reach $1000 per BTC, at those seemingly-lofty heights, Bitcoin will only be about 0.1% as big as the world's M1 money supply (i.e., still relatively small in the scheme of things).  If you believe that Bitcoin has the potential to change the world and replace our corrupt, destructive, and rapidly-imploding monetary system with something better, it needs to get bigger.  A LOT bigger. And if that means I have to become fabulously wealthy in the process, well that's just a sacrifice I'll have to make.

Keep in mind that in your scenario, while 10 BTC may buy you $10000, $10000 may be better used as firewood if the current monetary system does collapse.

Yeah, I expect both effects, i.e. bitcoins' price in fiat will rise because fiat is losing value and because bitcoins are gaining real purchasing power. And the collapse of the current monetary system is a matter of "when," not "if."

so we will have a major collapse of the monetary system yet the "internet" will remain operational and effective
for BTC users to zing money around. got it.

so when ISPs start going out of business, your wireless phone gets shut off, and what have you.. you will still
be able to use BTC like there is no problem?

Yeah, I don't think a collapse of the current monetary system will necessarily translate into the complete end of the world as we know it / zombie apocalypse (although I'm certainly not suggesting you shouldn't also prepare for the latter scenario). Fiat currencies have come and gone before. The exchange of goods and services for value continued. I'm admittedly not an expert in this area (like not at all) but my understanding is that the "internet" is a fairly resilient lady. I could imagine major disruptions but my guess is that she (and the block chain) will be around for a while.

^ this..  so many doomsdayers on these forums...

oh please. here you all talk about monetary collapse (dooms day type scenario) then do not even consider if bitcoin
could function properly when the event takes place. Is it too much of a stretch to think that it is possible for some ISPs
and wireless carriers to go out of business in such a situation?

Again, I don't consider the monetary collapse to be a doomsday scenario. And no, that's not too much of a stretch at all.  I just don't think that if, e.g., AOL and Sprint go out of business that will mean the death of the Internet.

The death of the internet is too vague. How about if Comcast starts having problems and millions of people cannot get online to use bitcoin.
That would be a major problem. Or cell phone service becomes problematic so the carriers only allow voice and not data to get through the
rough patch.

The internet is just a bunch of small networks connected to each other. If Level3 died off we would still be connected to other ISPs
but some parts of the internet might be unreachable until we scrambled a way to get our packets there.

What, they will voluntarily refuse to provide internet to the masses that demand it? Why, out of sympathy for the crash? The internet is 5x more important to life today than the telephone was in the 1930's.

It's almost as important as running water, in most civilized places.

Check out this analysis of telephone traffic during the depression. I think the trends are relevant to internet services today, should we experience a monetary collapse.

http://purplemotes.net/2010/02/07/calls-per-phone-grew-across-the-great-depression/ (http://purplemotes.net/2010/02/07/calls-per-phone-grew-across-the-great-depression/)

Despite the Great Depression traumatically beginning in 1929, calls per telephone grew 1%  in the U.S. from 1927 to 1932.  Across this period, gross domestic product (GDP) fell 39%, and urban prices fell 21%.   Since telephone rates are regulated, they tend to be nominally sticky.  Hence the real price of telephone service almost surely rose from 1927 to 1932.  Nonetheless, the number of telephones in service fell only 6%.  Calls, most of which are not charged per call, fell 5%.

Communication shouldn’t be expected to contract with economic contractions.  After all, misery loves company.  Bad times are a good stimulus for conversation.   Complaining has unlimited possibilities for growth.  Communication beats depression.

Telephone back then was a disruptive technology and expansion was going to happen hell or high water.
No different then radio really. The great depression drove down prices, installment payments came about,
and deflation made things more available for an average person to buy.

"The Great Depression drove down the average price of a radio sold in United States from $139 in 1929 to about $47 just four years later."

Yet everyone is talking about run away inflation and monetary collapse. The opposite of what happened back then.
What happens when your internet service goes from 40 a month to 160 a month and your wages do not keep up?

The internet company drops its prices or goes bust?

Or alternatively people switch to per gb plans and turn off image download as default, only go online for 1/2 hour a day etc, maybe you're lucky enough to be too young to remember dial-up modems and BBS ?

Some of us are Australian, that's still the peak of technology over here. :-\

If internet is not critical to you, of course you won't continue to pay for it.

There are options:

a) Internet cafe
b) mobile wireless
c) dial-up internet
d) wifi free-loading

combined with online wallet service.

«And BCE said, "it will go up until 14~15 before crash"»
The book of BCE 100938,1

 ;D

Two similar events don't make a "pattern" -- they make a "coincidence".

I draw a white square, then a black square, then a white, then a black... it isn't yet a pattern but it starts to look like a pattern.

Back on single digit. Still lol'ing?

And what "magic" did I operate to notice something was "f" wrong and estimate the top/low? A "magic" we all have... common sense.
Economy isn't a science, the way we have nowadays makes it probably the major scam on Earth, specially because they managed to lure society into believe it to be a "science" but the statistics analysis and "indicators" they use are just as valid for anything as those guys calculating past lotto-results to try to win the next one; they're but gambling fallacies. If a person simply prevents his greed and wishful thinking to speak of, will see it as easily as I saw it to happen... now just enjoy the ride of "correction" as the boat gets to balance again.

I generally agree, but I wouldn't give yourself too much credit. Common sense only works well in common situations. It works pretty poorly in uncommon situations. Also, economists are well-aware of the fact that economics is not really a science (also that "social sciences" are not really science). As for "technical analysis" -- well you can read my posts/rants about that elsewhere.