Bitcoin Forum

Predict the price of BITCOIN in USD on 1 April 2016 12.00 AM (average between Bitstamp & Bitfinex)

I will donate US$25 in CBX Crypto Bullion to the winner, exchange rate from the last day.
300 CBX added by members of their community.
If anyone likes to add  to the prize, please contact and I will write it here. I will payout 100%.

Entree will close on 1 June 2015

I suggest to not use round numbers, first come first served.
You can edit your post until June 1.
Only post once. A second guess will be invalid and the first will be valid.
The one who guesses the nearest to the price will win.

If the winner does not respond within 1 month after he has won I keep the right to pay the prize to the next best guess and his entree is invalidated.  

This is a promotion to support:
website: http://cryptobullion.io/
CBX thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=951753.0

$4,232.76  8)

$668.83

$249.51

I'm bullish, but at the same time I'm thinking that time of year will be bearish lol. Idk...

Here's my guess $63.44

613$ ;D

$1852.49

By the way, why Bitstamp and not Bitfinex?

Last year it was logic to choose Bitstamp. We could take the average of both if preferred.

I hope to see btc  again over 1000$

This is not a valid guess else I would say between $1 and $25,000.

You are in for $1,000 :)

this will be the longest contest...need to wait a year to know the result.. :)

but nothing to be worried.. I guess 1btc = $444.44

$253.12

Spot price  8)

my prediction

899.70

do you save a screenshot of every prediction so people can not change it afterwards?

i think it will be $650

Rats, there goes my idea.  Well then:

$81.01

On June 2nd I do it like this  :D:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=553123.msg8162779#msg8162779

In the original post he said that you can "edit your post until june 1" which is kinda pointless since a day earlier everyone will edit the post. But any way my prediction is going to be 1192.25 USD

130 $

$1,337.69

Given the pattern from last year's competition, $43*. :'( (Let's hope you guys are a tad more accurate this time!)

*Updated for new results.

$3133.7  ;) Because the price should be where it belongs... with the best of the best.

Cheers

$44 and dropping  8)

$520

89.71

$10.483,98 for one Bitcoin.

I think its more likely that its even higher then my guess.

My prediction: $350 = 1 BTC on 1st April 2016.


But wait, you say that the prediction will close on 1st June 2015 so when will you credit the winner with a prize? On 2nd April 2016?

$67.23

$604.53

$0.05

1$

$4,120.16  ;D

$475

Yes it will be when the competition ends, this time next year.

1 BTC = 1 BTC

Unless you can write really fast, it may be 1 BTC = 0.997 BTC or 1 BTC = 1.07 BTC.  ;)

111$

2088$  :)

I thought it would be more exciting if it is closer to the expected halving date but never mind, here's my guess: $524

In a year's time anything could still happen, so it's more like a blind guess to me. ;D

Any rules or precaution put in place to prevent cheating? I mean with the way things are going, after the closing date, members can still change the numbers.

It will be recorded like he said:

$411

$1210.

Prize increased to 300 CBX. At todays rate total is worth $40 (incl. $25)

$36

$3150 USD

What if either or both are history?  I've also been told that USD won't last the year due to total economic collapse of the world.  Can we express BTC value in "cans of beans" or "gallons of potable water" pl0x?

$666 USD, because that is where it always gravitates to. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=466806.0)

However one btc will still be one bct, that is quite a comfortable feeling I must admit.

$1719

1BTC=860,65 US$
  ;D

You can make your own contest with beans  :D
Last year some suggested also that CBX would not be around but that was only fantasy.
As long they are in top 20 exchange in volume they will have acceptable pricequotes, or we could change to the highest BTC/USD markets if they don't.

158,57 $  ;)

$325

990$

$19,732

Was it intentional that there is no clause preventing non-unique guesses?

$7777

First come first served is preventing a valid similar guess as someone already posted or it will be invalid.

This started last year just for fun and very simple rules but people kept suggesting all kinds scenario's so that's why I added some more.
No matter what I'd like to keep the right for any final decision on the outcome in a reasonable way.

With 300 CBX on board no one knows how serious it could get since the price of CBX has been several dollars each on the top. A lot can happen in a year.

The change in perceptions is quite telling:

			2014	2015
Believe	in	new ATH:	82%	32%
Believe	in	post-bubble low:	6%	27%

   

5432.10  ;D

When will you bitfools stop sacrificing your wealth to this hellcoin?

$17

@OP: can we have a summary of all predictions so far in some spreadsheet?
It would be very interesting to see the sentiment of posters.

Feel free to make it, a little busy here.

463.76

49.99

$2'300. I believe we have witnessed the true turnaround now and as soon as we break the resistance line of the current downtrend, we will climb back up. Pop at $3'500 or something and then downtrend to a certain degree. See you in 2016 :)

so optimistic  :)

It's incredible that this year's bets are way lower than last year's... Then again, if you look at the predictions, they tend to be at about 3x the current price in median. Last year was something along the lines of 6x or something. Still optimistic, but a bit battered bullish....

I believe the next bullmarket will at least start this year but is gonna take several years to reach the top.
So my own entree will be on the road towards that: US$1,426

Did you use a Gaussian function to have it? A normal distribution is very good to understand probability...

Interesting prediction, but I honestly don't think  that it will take us more than a handful months (at most) to achieve a new ATH as soon we've passed, say $600 or so. Things may get pretty bullish once we've passed $350!

$3000.00

The median is simply the middle number of the sample here. The data isn't distributed normally, the mean is over $5000 and the SD over $26000.

^ Thank you for combining the responses! Nicely done.

Should have used log scale (seriously!) i.e. use the geometric mean instead of arithmetic mean,
and compute the SD by exp(sqrt(sum((log(P(i)) - log(Pmean))^2))).

$62

$843

$1512

$817.14

I hope you won't say April Mop on 1 April 2016 ;D

where do you all take these numbers from?

Real numbers, unlike 'real money', are inflationary and infinitely divisible.  Their Central Bank can issue an infinite amount of them in an arbitrarily short time.  In fact, more than you can count.

Can't we just go ahead and determine the median values with the 5 most accepted ways there are? Hell, we could even introduce the super-meta-mean-index :D

2849$

That's my guess.

Hey, thanks. I have ~$480 for the geometric mean, and ~10.5 for the geometric SD. If I understand this right, the geometric standard deviation is multiplicative, so 1sigma would be 480*10.5, 2sigma 480*10.5^2, while -1sigma would be 480/10.5?

$423

$444

Yes, that's correct, thanks!

As for me I would say ~$400.

$30,000.00 USD

because
a) This would still be less than the change in 2013, and
b) What would be the point of winning if the current trend hasn't changed by then?   ;D

315 USD

$525

$7340.58

837$

April 1 2016 = 380.33

April 1 2017 > 10,000  8)

$2800 Dollars.

12000 USD

27,000 USD :-)

This is my favourite one :-)

2.370,29 USD/BTC

27 USD

$360

$612.45

$1230

Entree will close on 1 June 2015. 3 weeks to go to get your guesses in.

$546

what you gonna do if CGB has less than 25$ total marketcap once it's payout time?

$1234.56/BTC

Then I already bought them all.  ;)

$711

just imagine how many people with money to invest have heard about bitcoin since the last run up. most of them skeptical, some interested and open, but need to wait für the end of the bear circle. almost 18 months of bad and good news with hundreds of millions $ pouring in as venture capital. 18 months and it is still not dead.

once the next run up starts getting traction not only the enthusiasts will start buying. next ath will reach more than $ 6500,-

in april 1. 2016 it will be around $ 2500,-

$483.00 usd on the april 1st 2016 date....(hey just trying to be 'modest' in my expecations :)

$531.53

1,743.74 USD   

EDIT : aww I was really off on the price I am so sad but happy anyway with the actual price

1293  ;D

but what if crypto bullions are worthless byt 1 abril 2016 ???

$ 457

Edit: Just realized; this (still) equals doubling in less than a year.

seems legit.

i dont mind if i get it for free  :P

They won't be worthless.


Similar comments in last years contest have been proven wrong.

uhh, it is like predicting own death..well..let's say:

2984.45$

$457,91

375

(edited) In 2013 it was > 50x in a year, so it's reasonable to say this time will be similar, BUT $10.000 will be a big resistance, so I say it will only touch it. So I take a long shot and say $10,200.

Every time BTC has broken its previous records but $9100 one year is too much optimism . $1-2k might be possible.

$528.95

880.00$  :)

$422

3725

My bearish scenario points to about 70$ in February 2016, so by 1st April the price should have recovered somewhat.
How much recovered, I can't predict, so out of my ass I'll say 115$ on the 1st April 2016.

$245.6

Updated the table for new responses. It appears the doldrums has invigorated the bulls, albeit not to 2014 levels.

Name_________________	Amount ($)
chmod755	0.05
Jammalan the Prophet	1.00
mikelitoris	17.00
Markos	27.00
NotHatinJustTrollin	36.00
esse83	44.00
ravenjt	49.99
thewayshegoes	54.60
God27	62.00
BitcoinNewbie15	63.44
Morecoin Freeman	67.23
JorgeStolfi	81.01
Dump3er	89.71
WiiD	111.00
Tzupy	115.00
SkyValeey	130.00
leen93	158.57
Fakhoury	245.60
gentlemand	249.51
Shatoshi	253.12
alani123	315.00
uki	325.00
erikalui	350.00
rjclarke2000	360.00
shmadz	380.33
Losvienleg	400.00
gizmoh	411.00
Warrior B	422.00
CryptoChaser	423.00
litedoge	444.00
panjul07	444.44
8up	457.00
DutchTrades	457.91
Febo	463.76
snatchmonkey	475.00
Searing	483.00
1Referee	520.00
Q7	524.00
SmoothCurves	525.00
cryptopaddles	528.95
spud21	531.53
fish731	546.00
100x	565.00
Katsou	604.53
Brewins	612.45
cakir	613.00
randy8777	650.00
bitebits	666.00
futureofbitcoin	668.83
lay785	711.00
edgar	727.00
sandy47bt	817.14
not altcoin hitler	837.00
btcbug	843.00
Grand_Voyageur	860.65
lasvegas83	880.00
Amph	899.70
bugmenot	990.00
unsoindovo	1,000.00
pereira4	1,192.25
BitmoreCoin	1,210.00
mrkavasaki	1,230.00
Emperor Magnus Caligula	1,234.56
noobtrader	1,293.00
WeltMaster	1,337.69
BTCat	1,426.00
BitBOOM	1,512.00
TQMA	1,719.00
MirkoIta	1,743.74
Miz4r	1,852.49
Kexkey	2,088.00
ensurance982	2,300.00
mladen00	2,370.29
600watt	2,500.00
hmkey	2,800.00
LOBSTER	2,849.00
Xialla	2,984.45
nicked	3,000.00
macsga	3,133.70
Odalv	3,150.00
Hunyadi	3,725.00
Chainsaw	4,120.16
ssmc2	4,232.76
lunarboy	5,432.10
Capt Drake	7,340.58
ejinte	7,777.00
llildur	9,100.00
vrzo	10,200.00
Bitcoiner_cph	10,483.98
AlexGR	12,000.00
americanpegasus	19,732.00
neo2040	27,000.00
Equus	30,000.00
agentcash	187,518.80

Stats_____________	This Year__	Last Year__
Response Count:	94	71
Median:	$658.00	$3,450
Geometric Mean:	$671.04	$3,390
Believe new high:	37%	82%
Believe rangebound:	45%	12%
Believe new low:	18%	6%

$754,218.38

lol  :D

fitting for his name, huh.

I wouldn't mind losing this game if it really went to 754k. Actually I think I would be pretty happy.

On the 1 April 2016 12.00 AM i believe the avg price of bitcoin will be 2416.37 USD on bitstamp, bitfinex and simular exchanges.

This seems like an interesting enough guess
I'll estimate a value of $688.25 American on April 1 2016
With a blockchain halving and a rally later into that year.

I'm going to have to change my prediction to 772.07, because right now my prediction is being squeezed too closely on either side, so it's not a very good strategic position.

Thanks for the list Yefi. If you don't mind I'll use it for endresults on June 2. (Will check list and add new ones)

Until June 1 anyone can still edit his post. The higher the guess the more wide area is covered. A guess of $100,000 would have a whopping $75,000 up and down.

I say... $975

$2211.23

http://cdn.acidcow.com/gifs/20150403/gifs_14.gif

If I were to make an estimation, I guess it would be... 666,66 USD.

Why? Because I kinda like the number and it seams quite reasonable atm ;)

$9,999,999.99

447.32$

Ha ha, is almost last day for enrollment. Now is only 10 months left so is so easy to predict. Price on April fools 2016 will be exactly

$368.39

Yes, by all means.  :)

Looking at the list, there's a glaring 55% gap between $158 - $245. I will therefore give my own answer as $197.34 to plug this gap.

edit: this may make things easier for you. It's the list in .csv format that can be opened as a spreadsheet. The CSVtoSMF.exe will convert the table to forum code. I've included the source code in a .rar file, so you can compile it yourself in Visual C# 2010 (or later): https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7Y01vk41IMfMlFVR3dva0xrVmc/view?usp=sharing

$6001  :P

$326

Unfortunately I'm not a coder and never compiled anything so I think will copy code from your list :) But I will look into the converter, could be very handy indeed so thanks for the tip.

$304

99.66$

Nice  ;)

$204.14

I think April 1 starts the next bull market at $66.60

Spotted an error in my table. The guess for 2370.29 was by mladen00 not rjclarke2000. :-[

356.04  ;)  I have a guy, that knows a guy.

Nice way to promote your site, I hope in a year you will still be here but hey... this is Bitcoin. Happy april fools :)
203.08$

Updated list with all entrees. Check if your entree is correct because this is final. See you next year :)

Name_________________	Amount ($)
chmod755	0.05
Jammalan the Prophet	1.00
mikelitoris	17.00
Markos	27.00
NotHatinJustTrollin	36.00
esse83	44.00
ravenjt	49.99
thewayshegoes	54.60
God27	62.00
BitcoinNewbie15	63.44
DieJohnny	66.60
Morecoin Freeman	67.23
JorgeStolfi	81.01
Dump3er	89.71
fonzie	99.66
WiiD	111.00
Tzupy	115.00
SkyValeey	130.00
leen93	158.57
yefi	197.34
Fabrizio89	203.08
ammy009	204.14
Fakhoury	245.60
gentlemand	249.51
Shatoshi	253.12
alesx.onfire	304.00
alani123	315.00
uki	325.00
kaykawa	326.00
erikalui	350.00
PenguinFire	356.04
rjclarke2000	360.00
Febo	368.39
shmadz	380.33
Losvienleg	400.00
gizmoh	411.00
Warrior B	422.00
CryptoChaser	423.00
litedoge	444.00
panjul07	444.44
oiul	447.32
8up	457.00
DutchTrades	457.91
Febo	463.76
snatchmonkey	475.00
Searing	483.00
1Referee	520.00
Q7	524.00
SmoothCurves	525.00
cryptopaddles	528.95
spud21	531.53
fish731	546.00
100x	565.00
Katsou	604.53
Brewins	612.45
cakir	613.00
randy8777	650.00
bitebits	666.00
NorrisK	666,66
EternalWingsofGod	688.25
lay785	711.00
edgar	727.00
futureofbitcoin	772.07
sandy47bt	817.14
not altcoin hitler	837.00
btcbug	843.00
Grand_Voyageur	860.65
lasvegas83	880.00
fff13	886.47
Amph	899.70
BlackSpidy	975.00
bugmenot	990.00
unsoindovo	1,000.00
pereira4	1,192.25
BitmoreCoin	1,210.00
mrkavasaki	1,230.00
Emperor Magnus Caligula	1,234.56
noobtrader	1,293.00
WeltMaster	1,337.69
BTCat	1,426.00
BitBOOM	1,512.00
TQMA	1,719.00
MirkoIta	1,743.74
Miz4r	1,852.49
Kexkey	2,088.00
PoolMinor	2,211.23
ensurance982	2,300.00
mladen00	2,370.29
thy	2,416.37
600watt	2,500.00
hmkey	2,800.00
LOBSTER	2,849.00
Xialla	2,984.45
nicked	3,000.00
macsga	3,133.70
Odalv	3,150.00
Hunyadi	3,725.00
Chainsaw	4,120.16
ssmc2	4,232.76
lunarboy	5,432.10
Mrpumperitis	6,001.00
Capt Drake	7,340.58
ejinte	7,777.00
llildur	9,100.00
vrzo	10,200.00
Bitcoiner_cph	10,483.98
AlexGR	12,000.00
americanpegasus	19,732.00
neo2040	27,000.00
Equus	30,000.00
agentcash	187,518.80
Riddikulo	754,218.38
Le Happy Merchant	9,999,999.99

$ 2,460 my prediction  ;D

Sorry, entrees closed after June 1 already. Ofcourse people will continue to make guesses...

My prediction at $315 seems to be on the pessimist side when compared to other predictions. Here's a cool picture of the moon you guys:

https://media1.giphy.com/media/NtDBzumKRZz1e/giphy.gif

$600

1715.325

$333

Not long to go now till resolution. Looks like it's going to be a close competition with lot of bets around the current price. Warrior B leading the pack atm with the smallest of margins.

Don't forget to take average between bitstamp and bitfinex...

Unfortunately CBX are stuck in Cryptsy. I will at least pay out the $25 worth but for the rest I need time.

Oh wow... I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt but this is so unlucky. Once more we're reminded that crypto is the wild west of fintech.

Yes, I was taking the average, but then price changed quite a bit after I posted.

Sorry to hear you were a victim of Cryptsy. :-\

Has the winner been paid? By my calculations, and from the time zone given, it should be Gizmoh.

He hasn't claimed the prize yet, as written in OP it should be within 30 days or it goes to the next best guess.

I almost forget this prediction contest, but too bad my prediction ($444.44) is not so close to win the prize.
Congrats to the closest prediction..and dont forget to claim the prize. :)

Ah, right. His loss if he doesn't claim it.

Hurray I won :D

Linear growth, a sound and logical prediction in hindsight..

Thanks Yefi

Hey, congrats! O0