Predict the price of Bitcoin on 1 April 2016 - win CBX (Crypto Bullion)

[uki]

@OP: can we have a summary of all predictions so far in some spreadsheet?
It would be very interesting to see the sentiment of posters.

[BTCat]

@OP: can we have a summary of all predictions so far in some spreadsheet?
It would be very interesting to see the sentiment of posters.

Feel free to make it, a little busy here.

[Febo]

463.76

[ravenjt]

49.99

[ensurance982]

$2'300. I believe we have witnessed the true turnaround now and as soon as we break the resistance line of the current downtrend, we will climb back up. Pop at $3'500 or something and then downtrend to a certain degree. See you in 2016

[yefi]

@OP: can we have a summary of all predictions so far in some spreadsheet?
It would be very interesting to see the sentiment of posters.

Name_________________	Amount ($)
chmod755	0.05
Jammalan the Prophet	1.00
mikelitoris	17.00
NotHatinJustTrollin	36.00
esse83	44.00
ravenjt	49.99
thewayshegoes	54.60
God27	62.00
BitcoinNewbie15	63.44
Morecoin Freeman	67.23
JorgeStolfi	81.01
Dump3er	89.71
WiiD	111.00
SkyValeey	130.00
leen93	158.57
gentlemand	249.51
Shatoshi	253.12
uki	325.00
erikalui	350.00
Losvienleg	400.00
gizmoh	411.00
CryptoChaser	423.00
litedoge	444.00
panjul07	444.44
Febo	463.76
snatchmonkey	475.00
1Referee	520.00
Q7	524.00
100x	565.00
Katsou	604.53
cakir	613.00
randy8777	650.00
bitebits	666.00
futureofbitcoin	668.83
sandy47bt	817.14
btcbug	843.00
Grand_Voyageur	860.65
Amph	899.70
bugmenot	990.00
unsoindovo	1,000.00
pereira4	1,192.25
BitmoreCoin	1,210.00
WeltMaster	1,337.69
BTCat	1,426.00
BitBOOM	1,512.00
TQMA	1,719.00
Miz4r	1,852.49
Kexkey	2,088.00
ensurance982	2,300.00
LOBSTER	2,849.00
nicked	3,000.00
macsga	3,133.70
Odalv	3,150.00
Chainsaw	4,120.16
ssmc2	4,232.76
lunarboy	5,432.10
ejinte	7,777.00
Bitcoiner_cph	10,483.98
americanpegasus	19,732.00
agentcash	187,518.80

Stats_____________
Response Count:	60
Median:	$608.77
Geometric Mean:	$494.91
Believe new high:	33%
Believe rangebound:	42%
Believe new low:	25%

edit: updated with latest figures

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

$2'300. I believe we have witnessed the true turnaround now and as soon as we break the resistance line of the current downtrend, we will climb back up. Pop at $3'500 or something and then downtrend to a certain degree. See you in 2016

so optimistic 

[ensurance982]

It's incredible that this year's bets are way lower than last year's... Then again, if you look at the predictions, they tend to be at about 3x the current price in median. Last year was something along the lines of 6x or something. Still optimistic, but a bit battered bullish....

[BTCat]

I believe the next bullmarket will at least start this year but is gonna take several years to reach the top.
So my own entree will be on the road towards that: US$1,426

[Grand_Voyageur]

@OP: can we have a summary of all predictions so far in some spreadsheet?
It would be very interesting to see the sentiment of posters.

Name_________________	Amount ($)
chmod755	0.05
Jammalan the Prophet	1.00
mikelitoris	17.00
NotHatinJustTrollin	36.00
esse83	44.00
ravenjt	49.99
thewayshegoes	54.60
BitcoinNewbie15	63.44
Morecoin Freeman	67.23
JorgeStolfi	81.01
Dump3er	89.71
WiiD	111.00
SkyValeey	130.00
leen93	158.57
gentlemand	249.51
Shatoshi	253.12
uki	325.00
erikalui	350.00
gizmoh	411.00
panjul07	444.44
Febo	463.76
snatchmonkey	475.00
1Referee	520.00
Q7	524.00
Katsou	604.53
cakir	613.00
randy8777	650.00
bitebits	666.00
futureofbitcoin	668.83
Grand_Voyageur	860.65
Amph	899.70
bugmenot	990.00
unsoindovo	1,000.00
pereira4	1,192.25
BitmoreCoin	1,210.00
WeltMaster	1,337.69
TQMA	1,719.00
Miz4r	1,852.49
Kexkey	2,088.00
ensurance982	2,300.00
macsga	3,133.70
Odalv	3,150.00
Chainsaw	4,120.16
ssmc2	4,232.76
lunarboy	5,432.10
ejinte	7,777.00
Bitcoiner_cph	10,483.98
americanpegasus	19,732.00
agentcash	187,518.75

Median response: $604.53.

Did you use a Gaussian function to have it? A normal distribution is very good to understand probability...

[ensurance982]

I believe the next bullmarket will at least start this year but is gonna take several years to reach the top.
So my own entree will be on the road towards that: US$1,426

Interesting prediction, but I honestly don't think  that it will take us more than a handful months (at most) to achieve a new ATH as soon we've passed, say $600 or so. Things may get pretty bullish once we've passed $350!

[nicked]

$3000.00

[yefi]

Did you use a Gaussian function to have it? A normal distribution is very good to understand probability...

The median is simply the middle number of the sample here. The data isn't distributed normally, the mean is over $5000 and the SD over $26000.

[Morecoin Freeman]

^ Thank you for combining the responses! Nicely done.

[JorgeStolfi]

The median is simply the middle number of the sample here. The data isn't distributed normally, the mean is over $5000 and the SD over $26000.

Should have used log scale (seriously!) i.e. use the geometric mean instead of arithmetic mean,
and compute the SD by exp(sqrt(sum((log(P(i)) - log(Pmean))^2))).

[God27]

$62

[btcbug]

$843

[BitBOOM]

$1512

[sandy47bt]

$817.14

I hope you won't say April Mop on 1 April 2016

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

where do you all take these numbers from?