Bitcoin Forum

IMO these are the only 3 lines you need to draw.
The convergence of the uptrend and the top of the downtrend channel will happen around April 26th or so.
If we are above $230 at the end of the month, uptrend is confirmed.  If we are below $230, say hello to the bottom of the channel soon (high double digits).
Thoughts?
https://i.imgur.com/TkOJblA.png

So from your analysis, no matter if we are above or below 230 at the end of the month, then we are in uptrend/bull-market?? Why didnt you just say that the price will go up??

Not that I really understand your arguments???

No if you read what he wrote properly you would see he is saying if we are above '230' he thinks it is a confirmed uptrend, if it is below 230 then we will be free falling to high double digits. That was really quite clear if you read what he wrote  :D I think we will be confirming your theory of a uptrend on the 26th of April. Well i hope so lol

If only it was that simple ... Good to see different opinions none the less. Thanks

so, basically it means that the price will go either up or down. which is already the case without reviewing charts.
i'm only not so sure about the double digits. i have the feeling we will never see double digits ever again.

It looks more like this to me. What do you guys think?

http://stockchartpatterns.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/channel-chart-pattern-1.jpg

But I agree with OP that the couple of weeks ahead could be very exciting. If you look at the graph, the market has not really confirmed on the direction it is moving. It's either we will see the worst of the worst or finally something new with a reversal in the pattern.

Murphy's Law.  Whatever can happen will happen.  Just know what to do when it does.

Exactly. A lot of people draw random lines on a graph and tell us it will either go up or down. Not exactly a great prediction :/.

For the long run it is sufficient an avg daily 200. but this can help you just for the long run.

Many people saying april is important so must be seeing the same patterns. I think we are in an uptrend as everyone wants to buy bitcoin under $200.

RSI at the chart you presented favours the negative solution (to the downside).

Who care if bitcoin will drop under 200 dollars? Do you want a stable price or only a pump & dump scheme , like all the altcoins?

You're right.  We have been waiting for a stable Bitcoin.  Now we have it.

I don't think that if bitcoin is stable at $230 till the end of this month, the price will rise in May. It will most probably decrease and reach $200 but the price fluctuations last for a week or two. It was above $290 last month, $240 last week and now it is stable at $255. It will again reach that amount $270-$280 in the coming months if I follow the chart.

Stable? Well, I would rather say we are slowly reversing the down trend from the last year. We are now, indeed, in the horizontal trend, limited in between $200 and $300 roughly. If that is what you call stable, then we are stable.

Extended periods of price stability are not possible now with Bitcoin.  Too many people know about it. 

As soon as people see a stable price the thought process goes: "Hmm this thing is looking pretty stable, maybe trending up slightly... this looks like a good investment, time to buy." "Buy?" "BUY??!" "BUUYYYY!!!" There goes the stability... 

Staying flat at $250 is not an option and we will be forced out of the triangle shown above within the next few weeks (maybe sooner).

The range could get narrower and narrower though...

I get what you're saying, but RSI isn't a predictive indicator.  It could bounce around in the upper margin for an extended period if it wanted to.  I'm not saying it is a useless indicator, but that its use isn't in prediction, more for rule of thumb value measurement at best.

sure it may. Have a look at the same chart at the end of 2013. RSI stayed for quite a long in the overbought area.
The difference is however, we didn't have the negative RSI we have on the chart now.

Here's a closer look.  My personal prediction is that we will bounce around in the triangle until pretty much the very end, and then see a violent breakout.  If you believe in TA at all then this is a pretty important juncture.  This analysis has a long time frame with many data points supporting it.  I'm going to wait til we close a weekly candle or see significant volume outside the triangle and take a position accordingly, but everyone has their own strategy.  Good luck either way.  ;D
https://i.imgur.com/AqQ9be0.png

*The next 24 days are absolutely critical

The point is, you have to realize that the market makers know that all of us are looking at charts in this pattern and they will do everything to shake out the weak hands. A point where the get rich/impatient have gotten out and only the smart traders are going to drive this rally. This is what the whole of 2014 was about. People who rode 2014 without selling or giving up are certainly going to be rewarded.

If it went north in a significant way, and if at that time I had a need for FIAT then I might unload a small percentage to straddle both worlds, but my overall intention would be to live in crypto.  Added to that, if I didn't have a FIAT need at that time, then I'd load up on the dips and back it up more. 

We all have different circumstances and timing, but I'm here for crypto, not for making numbers in crappy national paper currency, even though we all have to still use it for now on a day to day basis.

the unexpected will happen. IMO the unexpected is neither a price increase nor a decline. this means we will have some more fun with a stable bitcoin.

exactly. I already wrote that we have a month or two more of horizontal trend ahead. Until then more boring action to be expected.

24 days? you mean like 24 hrs every day right?

bitcoin goes up and down, unless you are trading in 1 hr time frame which means you are a intra-daytrader all this trendline support is just a hopeful guide. Also, why set it to 1 day? so that means you are a swing trader?

I actually agree pretty much with the TA and general analysis provided in this thread! The day-to-day TA-speculation (yes, speculation) is more or less just looking into a crystal ball. But looking at 2 year charts really seems to be pretty helpful!

Sure, I agree that only longer-term view counts and that is why most of the daily-based topics in the speculation section are not really worth much.
Having said that, I expect more of the sideways trend: first we break down on what OP painted, and then we find new support line rising from the bottom of the channel and stay in sidewards till summer (or sooner if bigger crash in stocks causes some money to move into Bitcoin).

I don't know... We're still at a point where higher volatility would be expected. Summers are always dull. Breaking out of that trend will be major bullish. Breaking down will end in a prolonged downtrend for another 4 months or so... Back to $180 at least...

OK so here's where we are now.  The fakeouts below the rising support are a little disconcerting.  We've been nudging up against the top of the downtrend channel for a while, reminding me of May-Aug 2014, before the triangle represented by just the 1163 bubble collapsed.  If the same thing happens with the trendline encompassing both bubbles, Bitcoin could take a blow like we've never seen before...

https://i.imgur.com/WdGjSuJ.png

Wait, so now you're thinking $10-15 for the bottom if we break that lower trend line? Even I'm not that bearish  8)

I think it seems possible but not likely.  That would signify basically a "Bitcoin failure" situation where we see capitulation from even long-time holders as Bitcoin becomes relegated to the "antique technology museum", still retaining some small value for historical and scientific significance.  Everyone has to agree that that is a real possibility for the future, maybe as much as 10-20% chance.  For that to happen it would likely involve people flocking to a new crypto asset, picture Ripple making some kind of massive announcement and amassing a large portion of Bitcoin's market cap.

The more likely scenario it seems to me is that we will resolve positively out of the triangle, but after that, it's very difficult to predict what will happen because the possible upside is a much more vast range than the downside. 

Yeah I believe $10 per coin are a bit unrealistic, even if things are looking rather bearish these days! Most people won't be willing to sell their stash for those prices, or even at current prices. Downtrends can only go so far and have to end at some point. Missing that very point may get you margin-called quicker than you may realize!

If nothing happens, I believe we'll have to wait another 1-2 months, and then we can go and say that things have changed. Until then, we can just wait for another surprise breakout (which will be highly bullish, since it is unheard of since 2013) or a continuing fall.

Are we there yet?

Just about but we still haven't closed a weekly candle outside of it as I expected.

https://i.imgur.com/rFnws6e.png

I wish for $10 - $15 but that will not happen.

I think your bottom line is too high. You have it touching nov 2014 and that creates the line to go up failry sharply. That period was I think a gox period when data is all rubbish because of the bot. So I think it should be lower and that makes the crucial period some time away? am I reading the chart right?

Agreed. Double digits may be possible but I don't think we'll ever see sub $50 ever again.

Double digits is really possible only if all the whales ever just said fuck bitcoin.

But I doubt that will ever happen, the most I see the price reduction would being in the 100ish going back to 3 years ago price range.

definitely won't.

There is always a bigger whale with an agenda to keep Bitcoin alive (like the Winklevoss brothers) so it would go as low as they want, only to push the price back up quickly.

I never understand people who wish (near) single digits. Do you realize that if we had those you would start wishing for even lower prices? Such prices would shock so many people that no one would dare to buy in.

So, let's say it drops down to 15$ and you buy in big time. But wait, then it drops even more down to 1$. You have now lost 93% of your investment. Still a good idea to buy in at 15$?

Great comment Hyena

It's easy, actually... We're in a 15 months+ downtrend now, that means out current momentum is pretty pretty strong. In order to achieve a trend-reversal, we need to have some serious bull action over quite some time. That's difficult to achieve. Shorters don't care for prices going up - they profit from falling prices just as well. And if the price continues to go down, they make more money. If the downtrend never stops, they never stop making money!

nope, it case it gets 10-15$ muuuuuch more people would be involved in btc in general. that's how it can get spread worldwide. it would be accessible, easy to use and popular

If the price does indeed drop to $10, I think it's rather safe to say that something has gone awfully wrong with our beloved coin. In that case I wouldn't really want to bet on it managing to get up again, to be honest... There just are prices that are indicative of things having gone wrong in a way that there's no coming back, I believe...

anyway, hope that it will never turn 10$. And I hope if it does, you won't be right :)

The bear market actually sets up the bull market by altering the forces of supply and demand so severely that, at some point, there is almost no selling left to stand in the way of higher prices. This is how a bull market begins, with a high-volume selling climax that shakes most of the selling out, signaling to pro traders and big money that a potential bottom is in. They go into accumulation mode, keeping the price within a certain range, making money on the swings and pulling any additional supply from weak hands. If the price holds in this range long enough, it's a signal that no new supply will likely enter to force prices lower, and that higher prices can be achieved.

Once a bull market actually begins, the price is so undervalued that it goes up easily once the brakes are removed and even a little demand is simulated. Time it with some good news and it's off to the races.

Think of it like a valuable baseball card or any other sort of collectible. When many people hold it, suddenly it is not so rare and the price will go down. Conversely if very few people hold it, the price will go up even if demand remains the same. The same laws apply to any stock or commodity. It's just that making money in markets is a big business and there is much more at stake, so you often see bad news on selling climaxes, encouraging holders to let go. Why do you think there are so many trolls here? If you were trying to buy real estate at bargain-basement prices prices to sell later, you would be focusing on bad news in hopes to drive the price down, not good news. When you are selling, that's when you unleash all the good news, so you can sell at higher prices.

Same here, but I cannot think of any other scenario than its finished if it ever goes back to $10

A very apt explanation! I believe this is also the reason we don't see that much "institutional money" right now - the smart people with big pockets full of FIAT wait and see for the bull market to be confirmed, until they go and buy. The same goes for good traders and bears who are only bears because it's more profitable in the respective market situation.

The next 120 hours are critical.

The next 22 minutes are critical.

it won't and it must not go back to 10, because the network will die easily, no miner can sustain his work at that price, means 51% and other attack will occur, means double spend, means the death of bitcoin...

stop dreaming about single digit or something, current price is awesome to buy...expecting even cheaper coins is being too greedy....

Yeah, well, double spends could occur, but it definitely isn't a given. You could only perform a double spend in that case if you really wanted to destroy Bitcoin. If you wanted to still profit from it, you better not attack its foundation. A 51% percent attack asttacks your own stake, as well.

there are criminals that could take advantage of the network fragility if the miner will stop to work, and for them the only profit is to double spend, they have nothing to lose...

we'll see!

When we were 0.0001 USD back in the day, no one thought 1 USD was believable, we hit 1k.
When we hit 1K, no one thought sub 500 USD was ever a possibility again, we hit sub 200's..
Conclusion: We may go double figures during this correction, and we WILL hit 10K in the following years. Mass up.